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At least 973 records · Page 54

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geospatial Diffusion for Land Cover Imperviousness Change Forecasting

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) has a significant effect on several Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and speed water flow, impacting regional hydrology and flood risk. While Earth System models have improved forecasting hydrologic and atmospheric processes at higher resolutions, the ability to forecast LULC change has lagged behind. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm exploiting Generative AI (GenAI) for land cover change forecasting by framing it as a data synthesis problem conditioned on historical and auxiliary data-sources. To demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology, we perform experiments where a diffusion model is trained for decadal forecasting of imperviousness change across the entire United States. We find that our model yields MAE lower than a no-change baseline for resolutions ≥ 0.7 X 0.7km2 on average, demonstrating its ability to capture and project accurate spatiotemporal patterns. Finally, we discuss future research to incorporate Earth's physical properties and enabling scenario simulations via driver variables.

Varshney, Debvrat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000188981736)↗

Using Machine Learning to Identify Optimum Prospects for Offshore Geologic CO 2 Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in the Gulf of Mexico

The SECARB Offshore Partnership is a government-industry partnership focused on assembling the knowledge base required for secure, long-term, large-scale CO 2 subsea storage in saline formations and mature oil reservoirs. The SECARB Offshore Partnership is evaluating potential storage opportunities in the Central and Eastern planning areas of the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of Mexico. The evaluation focuses on active and depleted oil and gas fields and potentially associated CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR), as well as, deep saline storage resources. As part of Subtask 3.0 (Offshore Storage Resources Characterization) and Subtask 4.0 (Risk Assessment, Simulation, and Modeling), Oklahoma State University (OSU) is developing a machine learning system that employs the SAS Institute’s Viya platform with visual data mining and machine learning to identify and characterize optimum prospects for enhanced oil recovery and stacked storage in saline reservoirs. This report summarizes this effort to date and discusses the many variables that can be used to characterize these storage objectives, as well as, the design vision of the Viya machine learning system.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Multiphysics Computational Fluid Dynamics for Design and Scale-Up of CO 2 /Syngas Bioreactors [Poster]

What are we trying to do? Develop validated, high fidelity computational models for gas fermentation using CO 2 , CO and H 2 . How is it done today? Microbiological advances are made at the lab scale in well mixed reactors. Process scale-up remains an open question when considering novel microorganisms/reaction systems. Why is this important? Lab-to-production scale transition is required to achieve CO 2 conversion at Mton/Gton scale and computational models can de-risk/accelerate this transition.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Sequential Design of Experiments for Pilot Testing of Novel Solvent System

The CCSI2 program is supporting a six-month test campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) for evaluation of a novel water-lean solvent. This presentation describes CCSI2’s efforts in process modeling of the solvent system for both coal and natural gas-based flue gas sources and initial uncertainty quantification (UQ) work to estimate parametric uncertainty in key sub-models of interest (e.g., thermodynamics, mass transfer, reaction kinetics). Moreover, perspective is provided on how UQ and sequential design of experiments (SDoE) tools are used to assess the impact of model uncertainty on projected process performance, use this information to optimize data collection during the campaign, and refine process models through data collection. This framework is expected to reduce the overall model uncertainty, and thus risk associated with scale-up as the process moves towards commercialization.

Morgan, Joshua↗

Let's Not R-EPE-at Our Mistakes

Overview of experimental and computational modeling results about the risks associated with co-extruded EPE encapsulants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗

Evaluation of cryogenic system test options for the OTV on-orbit propellant depot

Future space missions to geosynchronous, lunar, and planetary orbits will require an orbital depot for stockpiling propellants. This depot will provide long-term storage of cryogens, requiring new technologies for fluid management in microgravity and further development of thermal management technologies for minimization of cryogen boiloff. Preliminary evaluations have been made to define a test program approach for reducing technical risk through verifying performance models and building a base of engineering data for depot design. A number of testing options were defined and evaluated, leading to selection of ground testing combined with an orbital systems test. Ground testing is inadequate because of critical microgravity concerns; extending testing aboard the Space Station was eliminated because the data would not be available soon enough to benefit the propellant depot design. The orbital test would either be a short-term test carried out in the cargo bay of the Space Shuttle Orbiter using a nonhazardous cryogen or a longer term test carried out with hydrogen aboard a free-flying experiment orbited with an expendable launch vehicle.

Schuster, John R.↗

Target fragmentation in radiobiology

Nuclear reactions in biological systems produce low-energy fragments of the target nuclei seen as local high events of linear energy transfer (LET). A nuclear-reaction formalism is used to evaluate the nuclear-induced fields within biosystems and their effects within several biological models. On the basis of direct ionization interaction, one anticipates high-energy protons to have a quality factor and relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of unity. Target fragmentation contributions raise the effective quality factor of 10 GeV protons to 3.3 in reasonable agreement with RBE values for induced micronuclei in bean sprouts. Application of the Katz model indicates that the relative increase in RBE with decreasing exposure observed in cell survival experiments with 160 MeV protons is related solely to target fragmentation events. Target fragment contributions to lens opacity given an RBE of 1.4 for 2 GeV protons in agreement with the work of Lett and Cox. Predictions are made for the effective RBE for Harderian gland tumors induced by high-energy protons. An exposure model for lifetime cancer risk is derived from NCRP 98 risk tables, and protraction effects are examined for proton and helium ion exposures. The implications of dose rate enhancement effects on space radiation protection are considered.

Wilson, John W.↗

Alterations in dose and lineal energy spectra under different shieldings in the Los Alamos high-energy neutron field

Nuclear interactions of space radiation with shielding materials result in alterations in dose and lineal energy spectra that depend on the specific elemental composition, density and thickness of the material. The shielding characteristics of materials have been studied using charged-particle beams and radiation transport models by examining the risk reduction using the conventional dose-equivalent approach. Secondary neutrons contribute a significant fraction of the total radiation exposure in space. An experiment to study the changes in dose and lineal energy spectra by shielding materials was carried out at the Los Alamos Nuclear Science Center neutron facility. In the energy range of about 2 to 200 MeV, this neutron spectrum is similar in shape within a factor of about 2 to the spectrum expected in the International Space Station habitable modules. It is shown that with a shielding thickness of about 5 g cm(-2), the conventional radiation risk increases, in some cases by as much as a factor of 2, but decreases with thicknesses of about of 20 g cm(-2). This suggests that care must be taken in evaluating the shielding effectiveness of a given material by including both the charged-particle and neutron components of space radiation.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Food and nutrition in space: application to human health

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration begins the new millennium with the hope of expanding human space exploration beyond Earth's orbit. These extended-duration missions (3-5 years) require an in-depth assessment of the critical risks (referred to as "show stoppers") to humans when exposed to the remote environment and reduced gravity conditions for such long periods of time. Food, and the nutrition it provides, is paramount to crew health. For short-duration spaceflight (30 days), the nutrient requirements pertaining to physiological adaptations are likely to be satisfied without significant impact on crew performance or health. However, prolonged exposure to reduced gravity, or microgravity, and isolation may alter human nutrient requirements as well as increase the psychosocial role of food/meals in daily activities. An outline of critical questions and related research needs in the area of food and nutrition has been drafted (1) at NASA JSC with the help of the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (http://www.nsbri.org). The research areas outlined in this plan will directly impact the success of extended-duration human space missions. Findings from this research will have direct applications to human health issues faced here on Earth.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

An Overview of NASA's Program of Future M&S VV&A Outreach and Training Activities

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model s fidelity, credibility, and quality. The Integrated Modeling & Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (IM&S W&A) process will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model s results for mission-critical decisions. The W&A Technical Working Group (W&A TWG) has been identified to communicate this process throughout the agency. As the W&A experts, the W&A NVG will be the central resource for support of W&A policy, procedures, training and templates for documentation. This presentation will discuss the W&A Technical Working Group s outreach approach aimed at educating M&S program managers, developers, users and proponents on the W&A process, beginning at MSFC with the CLV program.

Caine, Lisa↗

Environmental Physiology at the Johnson Space Center: Past, Present, and Future

This viewgraph presentation reviews the work in environmental physiology done at Johnson Space Center (JSC). The work is aimed at keeping astronauts healthy. This is a different approach than treating the sick, and is more of an occupational health model. The reduction of risks is the main emphasis for this work. They emphasis is to reduce the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) and acute mountain sickness (AMS). The work in environmental physiology encompasses the following areas: (1) Pressure: hypobaric and hyperbaric (2) Gases: hypoxia and hyperoxia, hypercapnia--closed space issues, inert gas physiology / respiration (3) Temperature: hypothermia and hyperthermia, thermal comfort, Protective clothing diving, aviation, mountaineering, and space (4) Acceleration (5) Noise and Vibration (6) Exercise / Performance (6) Acclimatization / Adaptation: engineering solutions when necessary. This presentation reviews the work done at JSC in the areas of DCS and AMS.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Strutzenberg, L. L.↗

Space Radiation Absorbed Dose Distribution in a Human Phantom Torso

The flight of a human phantom torso with head that containing active dosimeters at 5 organ sites and 1400 TLDs distributed in 34 1" thick sections is described. Experimental dose rates and quality factors are compared with calculations for shielding distributions at the sites using the Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) model. The measurements were complemented with those obtained from other instruments. These results have provided the most comprehensive data set to map the dose distribution inside a human and to assess the accuracy of radiation transport models and astronaut radiation risk.

Badhwar, G. D.↗