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At least 973 records · Page 54

Exploring Renewable Energy Opportunities in Select Southeast Asian Countries: A Geospatial Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Photovoltaics

The costs of renewable energy-based electricity generation have fallen precipitously in recent years to levels that are increasingly competitive with traditional generation such as fossil fuel-based generation. As these costs become increasingly competitive, private developers, policymakers, and energy system planners are searching for opportunities to harness high-quality renewable energy resources. Developing economies are setting ambitious targets and exploring how cost-effective, grid-connected renewable energy options can help power economic growth and meet growing electricity demands. This includes the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that are determined to reach a target of 23% of renewable energy in the region's total primary energy supply by 2025. A critical gap to identifying opportunities and scaling up renewable energy is the lack of quality data and analyses to support decisions on the investment and deployment of renewables - including wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). This work supports decision making by providing high-quality data and spatial analysis of the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV generation in select countries of Southeast Asia - specifically, the ASEAN member states. Generation costs are expressed as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - a commonly used metric that represents the net present value of the unit cost of electricity during the lifetime of a particular electricity generation technology. This is the first spatial estimate of LCOE for these technologies within the ASEAN member states - providing insights into the roles that renewable energy resource quality and other factors may play in generation costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Distributed Photovoltaic Economic Impact Analysis in Indonesia

Like other countries in the region, the Government of Indonesia aims to increase its use renewable energy in the near term from various technologies, including grid-connected distributed photovoltaics (DPV). While little DPV has been installed to date, the policy landscape has been shifting over the past few years with recent pronouncements from the state-run utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEMR) that have begun to provide a more supportive policy framework for the deployment of DPV. Nonetheless, many questions remain as to how DPV impacts customers, the utility, and the economy as a whole. This report presents a holistic view of DPV economic impacts in the Java-Bali region of Indonesia by assessing customer economic impacts, utility revenue impacts, and jobs and economic development impacts.

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Evaluation of Component Reliability in Photovoltaic Systems using Field Failure Statistics

Ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) are needed to ensure photovoltaic (PV) systems continue to operate and meet production targets over the lifecycle of the system. Although average costs to operate and maintain PV systems have been decreasing over time, reported costs can vary significantly at the plant level. Estimating O&M costs accurately is important for informing financial planning and tracking activities, and subsequently lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV systems. This report describes a methodology for improving O&M planning estimates by using empirically-derived failure statistics to capture component reliability in the field. The report also summarizes failure patterns observed for specific PV components and local environmental conditions observed in Sandia's PV Reliability, Operations & Maintenance (PVROM) database, a collection of field records across 800+ systems in the U.S. Where system-specific or fleet-specific data are lacking, PVROM-derived failure distribution values can be used to inform cost modeling and other reliability analyses to evaluate opportunities for performance improvements.

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Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

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Generalizable Mechanistic Understanding of Module-Level Light-Moisture and Thermal-Induced Instabilities in CIGS Photovoltaics (Final Report)

The objectives of this project are to identify the root causes of light, heat and humdity induced instabilities in the operation and accelerated testing of commercial Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 [CIGS] photovoltaic modules produced by major module manufacturers (e.g.: Solibro and MiaSolé), correlate them with module degradation/failure modes, and produce accurate service lifetime prediction models.

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The Energizer Bunny: Dual-Use Photovoltaic and Pasture-Raised Rabbit Farms (Final Report)

This case study project lays the groundwork for the broader realization of agrivoltaics by considering the techno-economic, environmental, and social aspects of system development and assessing a novel rabbit-based concept. Research on the social and political barriers to agrivoltaic development is sparse, which emphasizes the importance of this project as it provides key insight into the consequential socio-political challenges that may hinder the diffusion of agrivoltaic technology. Additionally, the rabbit agrivoltaic concept is novel and has not been applied in experimental or commercial applications to date. This project advances our understanding of the viability of this co-location scheme through empirical assessment of integrating grazing rabbits with solar. A total of five manuscripts (3 published in peer-reviewed journals, 2 under review) have resulted from this project. The techno-economic component of the project included a) a pilot test study investigating the feasibility of the rabbit agrivoltaic concept and b) an economic analysis of the advantages available to solar operators who leverage grazing animals for lawn maintenance and a dual-revenue stream. Our calculations indicate that the co-location of solar and rabbit farms is a viable form of agrivoltaics, increasing overall site revenue by 2.5%-24.0% above projected electricity revenue. The environmental component of the project entailed an ISO 14040 and 14044 compliant life cycle assessment to quantify the impacts of the rabbit agrivoltaic concept. The results indicate pasture-based agrivoltaic systems provide a dual synergy that produces 69.3% less emissions and demands 82.9% less fossil energy per functional unit of cumulative MWh output of electricity and cumulative kg of meat compared to non-integrated production. The social component of the project included conducting two separate interview studies with agriculture and solar industry professionals and the distribution of a public survey. The interview findings identify the key socio-political opportunities for agrivoltaics include: the retention of agricultural land and rural interests, and increased local level acceptance of solar development. The key barriers to agrivoltaics include: ensuring long term agricultural productivity is not compromised, and subnational zoning strategies. The survey results indicate that support for local solar projects increase by 10% when an agricultural function is incorporated. Survey respondents prefer agrivoltaic projects that are a) designed to provide economic opportunities for farmers and the local community b) located on private property or existing agricultural land, and c) do not threaten local interests. Cumulatively, this project can inform agrivoltaic decision making, solar development practices, rabbit-based applications, land use management, and policy making in a way that supports the furtherance of the renewable energy transition, conserves arable land, and utilizes innovative solar photovoltaic technologies.

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Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

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Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2021 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2020, and is based on data from roughly 2.2 million systems, covering 79% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through 2020. The report describes trends related to project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership. Median installed-price trends, including both long-term and more recent temporal trends at the national and state levels, with comparisons to other recent PV cost and pricing benchmarks as well as to prices reported for other countries. Variability in pricing across individual projects based on system size, state, installer, module efficiency, inverter technology, and non-residential customer type. The report also includes an econometric analysis to estimate the effects of individual drivers on installed prices for host-owned residential systems installed in 2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Photovoltaic Plant and Battery Energy Storage System Integration at NREL's Flatirons Campus

Although utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants are becoming a cost-effective energy resource, there is belief within the energy industry that the increasing penetrations of PV technologies could potentially impact grid reliability. This is due to the variability across timescales, the forecast uncertainty of the solar energy resource, and the impacts on both distribution and transmission systems. This can cause utilities to severely limit PV installations or to assign PV integration costs when considering a least-cost portfolio of resources. As California and other regions in the United States are marching toward fulfilling - and probably exceeding - their renewables portfolio standards goals, grid operators are beginning to face operational challenges that could have implications for existing renewable and nonrenewable generators and that will shape opportunities for future projects. In this work, we focused on developing controls and conducting demonstrations for AC-coupled PV-battery energy storage systems (BESS) in which PV and BESS are collocated and share a point of common coupling (PCC).

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Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Technical and Economic Analysis

This report presents an analytical methodology to identify alternative options to manage interconnection costs and streamline interconnection timelines for distribution system-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems not co-located with load. Specifically, the report details the methodology and results of an analysis that: 1. Identifies potential grid violations that would be induced by a PV system requesting interconnection to a distribution circuit; 2. Identifies multiple technically viable options for mitigating the potential violations, including infrastructure upgrades, downsizing the PV system size, curtailment of PV, and addition of battery energy storage; 3. Defines the required technical operating parameters of the system in order to mitigate all potential violations (the "Operating Envelope"); 4. Compares the economics of each option, from the PV developer's perspective. The analysis supports the ongoing evolution of interconnection standards for combined PV and energy storage systems by providing a methodology to define allowable maximum export limits during each hour. The methodology presented could be used by utilities as part of the interconnection study process, to inform negotiations with DER developers and the drafting of mutually acceptable interconnection agreements. The resulting technical operating parameters could be included as part of the interconnection service agreement (ISA) between the system owner and the utility company. The companion report to this analysis, Gill et al. (2022), details the envisioned framework for the implementation of the technical operating parameters.

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Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Conceptual Framework

This report explores one integrated technical and process concept designed to manage interconnection costs and streamline interconnection timelines to support near-term renewable energy deployment. We describe a new agreement between renewable energy developers and utilities, informed by the technical analysis. The agreement defines the operational parameters for a renewable energy system, with the goal of reducing risk and cost to all parties. This work provides a foundation upon which other states and utilities may build proof of concept. This report is supported by a technical analysis that is detailed in a companion report, "Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Technical and Economic Analysis" (McLaren et al. 2022).

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City-Wide Distributed Roof-Top Photovoltaic System Adoption Forecast, Grid Impact Simulation, & Neighborhood Microgrid Contribution Assessment

The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

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Investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a new transparent conductive oxide for photovoltaics applications

This small innovation project intended to leverage recent activity and advances in ultrawide-bandgap oxide power electronics toward the investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a transparent conductive oxide (TCO) for use in photovoltaics (PV). Ga 2 O 3 ’s theoretical advantage over incumbent TCOs is its very large bandgap of 4.8 eV, ensuring optical transparency of photons with λ ≥ 260 nm, effectively the full terrestrial solar spectrum. At the time of proposal writing, literature on Ga 2 O 3 as a TCO/optical material was relatively sparse — what little existed was focused on for UV sensors and/or emitters, with none related to PV. As such, this project was intended to help determine the potential of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO by investigating its deposition using tools common to the PV and electronics industries — atomic layer deposition (ALD) and RF sputtering (RS), both of which are already used in PV manufacturing — and its resultant optical and electronic properties. Final project goals were to test its application to Si and III-V solar cells. Controllable film thickness and excellent uniformity was established for both methods deposition methods, with ALD providing higher precision for thinner films and RS more effective for growing thicker films. The as-deposited films were found to be amorphous in nature. Spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) confirmed bandgaps of at least 4.8 eV and non-parasitic absorption across both AM0 and AM1.5G spectra; a refractive index approaching the expected value of 1.8 was also observed, with some degree of tunability based on process parameters. Using this initial optical data, a transfer matrix model, which interfaces with in-house EQE and LIV models, was developed to simulate Ga 2 O 3 optical effects on various solar cells, included potential in antireflection coatings (ARCs). Despite promising optical properties, the resultant resistivity / conductivity metrics did not meet expectations, regardless of deposition process. Although thick RS-deposited films, using both undoped and 1 at% Ge (n-type) doped sintered targets — demonstrated high net carrier concentrations (via C-V), and low specific resistance Ohmic contacts were demonstrated, transmission line measurements (TLM) showed very high resistivity. Further analysis indicated high vertical film conductivity, but very low lateral conductivity. Deeper characterization revealed a relatively high density of nano/microcrystalline inclusions that were ostensibly the source of the vertical conductivity, with the amorphous matrix serving as an effective insulator (likely due to high concentrations of electronic trap states). Despite extensive work to increase film polycrystallinity — demonstrated via high temperature annealing — sufficient lateral conductivity for TCO use was not achieved. The final phase of the project shifted focus toward investigation of ALD-deposited Ga 2 O 3 ’s potential as a passivant and/or passivating contact for both Si and III-V solar cells, with expectation of performance similar to Al 2 O 3 . However, initial rounds of testing using our baseline ALD process yielded minimal (but not quite zero) passivation of both GaInP and Si surfaces. Dielectric passivation is well-known to be highly process sensitive; given the unoptimized nature of the process used, this work was deemed inconclusive. The final outlook with respect to feasibility of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO is, ultimately, still uncertain. The work performed in this project confirmed the optical properties and deposition methods, but the achieved electrical properties do not meet technological needs; literature reports in recent years are somewhat inconsistent and potentially untrustworthy, but generally appear to be in line with our results. At the very least it is clear that, should Ga 2 O 3 still be under consideration for PV TCO and/or selective contact applications, a significant amount of optimization and study is still needed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

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In-situ Photophysical Monitors and Corrective Algorithms for Photovoltaic Film Deposition and Rapid Thermal Processing in Scalable Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing

This project evaluated three photophysics-based approaches for in situ process monitoring of the scalable deposition of perovskite photovoltaic films. Based on stakeholder input and the results of laboratory trials and literature analysis, two techniques, angle resolved elastic light scattering (ARLS) and time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) were prototyped and demonstrated with a mixture of simulation, offline and online tests. Also, a hybrid gas flow and humidity control enclosure was constructed and demonstrated to stabilize the ambient conditions around the slot die deposition process and were demonstrated to meet the target humidity control in situ. Due in part to a delayed start and COVID-related lab restrictions and personnel changes, some of the milestones were not met. In spite of these challenges, however, both techniques were prototyped through several iterations and demonstrated significant promise for rapid in line perovskite characterization within the targeted characterization time windows and these techniques are under further development for use in DE-FOA000235:2357-1586. The TRPL system was fully mounted and demonstrated on the scaled slot die roll to roll and sheet coating systems at the Washington Clean Energy Testbeds (WCET). Motivated by significant internal and stakeholder interest, the successful prototyping achieved here, the ongoing need for in-situ characterization for the scale-up of perovskite manufacturing, and the benefits of in situ photophysical characterization for future funded process development research, we are continuing with the principle aims of the project to develop effect in situ photophysical probes for fast analysis of the optoelectronic and structural quality of sheet based and roll to roll process perovskites. TRPLS and ARLS probes proposed in the project are to be completed with external support from the Washington Research Foundation at the WCET. We are currently actively engaged in the acquisition of components and plan to complete and test the probes within three months. It is our intention that these probes will then be used in ongoing perovskite development with our research and commercialization partners including First Solar and other member of the US MAP consortium in future funded development work.

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Machine-Learning-Assisted Enhancement of Perovskite Stability and Photovoltaic Performance

Lab scale perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have reached power conversion efficiencies on par with silicon solar cells. Their potential for low-cost manufacturing combined with high performance make them attractive for commercialization. The major challenge impeding widespread development of PSCs is their stability. Halide perovskites are vulnerable to decomposition in the presence of moisture, oxygen, light, and heat. Furthermore, the chemical differences between halide perovskites and conventional semiconductors used in photovoltaics (e.g., silicon, chalcogenides, and III-V compounds) may render established accelerated lifetime testing protocols inaccurate.

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