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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Amorphous ZnAlSnO thin-film transistors by a combustion solution process for future displays

A combustion solution method was developed to fabricate amorphous ZnAlSnO (a-ZATO) for thin-film transistors (TFTs). The properties of a-ZATO films and behaviors of a-ZATO TFTs were studied in detail. An appropriate Al content in the matrix could suppress the formation of oxygen vacancies efficiently and achieve densely amorphous films. The a-ZATO TFTs exhibited acceptable performances, with an on/off current ratio of ∼10{sup 6}, field-effect mobility of 2.33 cm{sup 2}·V{sup −1}·S{sup −1}, threshold voltage of 2.39 V, and subthreshold swing of 0.52 V/decade at an optimal Al content (0.5). The relation between on- and off-resistance of the ZATO TFT was also within the range expected for fast switching devices. More importantly, the introduced Al with an appropriate content had the ability to evidently enhance the device long-term stability under working bias stress and storage durations. The obtained indium- and gallium-free a-ZATO TFTs are very promising for the next-generation displays.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2013

A GALACTIC WEIGH-IN: MASS MODELS OF SINGS GALAXIES USING CHEMO-SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC GALACTIC EVOLUTION MODELS

The baryonic mass-to-light ratio (Y{sub *}) used to perform the photometry-to-mass conversion has a tremendous influence on the measurement of the baryonic content and distribution as well as on the determination of the dark halo parameters. Since numerous clues hint at an inside-out formation process for galaxies, a radius-dependant Y{sub *} is needed to physically represent the radially varying stellar population. In this article, we use chemo-spectrophotometric galactic evolution (CSPE) models to determine Y{sub *} for a wide range of masses and sizes in the scenario of an inside-out formation process by gas accretion. We apply our method to a SINGS subsample of 10 spiral and dwarf galaxies with photometric coverage ranging from the UV to the mid-IR. The CSPE models prove to be a good tool for weighting the different photometric bands in order to obtain consistent stellar disk masses regardless of the spectral band used. On the other hand, we show that the color index versus Y{sub *} relation is an imperfect tool for assigning masses to young stellar populations because of the degeneracy affecting Y{sub *} in all bands at low color index. The disks resulting from our analysis are compatible with the maximum disk hypothesis provided that an adequate bulge/disk decomposition is performed and that the correction for the presence of a bar is not neglected since bars disturb the internal disk kinematics. Disk-mass models including Y{sub *} as a free parameter as well as models using our physically motivated, radially varying Y{sub *} are presented and discussed for each galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinematically enhanced interpolating operators for boosted hadrons

We propose to use interpolating operators for lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations of highly boosted pions and nucleons with kinematically enhanced ground-state overlap factors at large momentum. Because this kinematic enhancement applies to the signal but not the variance of the correlation function, these interpolating operators can achieve better signal-to-noise ratios at large momentum. We perform proof-of-principle calculations with boosted pions and nucleons using close-to-physical and larger quark masses to explore the utility of our proposal. Results for effective energies and matrix elements, as well as Lanczos ground-state energy estimators, are consistent with theoretical expectations for signal-to-noise improvement at large momenta.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling noise in global Mølmer-Sørensen interactions applied to quantum approximate optimization

Many-qubit Mølmer-Sørensen (MS) interactions applied to trapped ions offer unique capabilities for quantum information processing, with applications including quantum simulation and the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). Here, we develop a physical model to describe many-qubit MS interactions under four sources of experimental noise: vibrational mode frequency fluctuations, laser power fluctuations, thermal initial vibrational states, and state preparation and measurement errors. The model parametrizes these errors from simple experimental measurements, without free parameters. Herein, we validate the model in comparison with experiments that implement sequences of MS interactions on two 171 Yb + ions. The model shows reasonable agreement after several MS interactions as quantified by the reduced chi-squared statistic $χ^{2}_{red}$≈2. As an application we examine MaxCut QAOA experiments on three and six ions. The experimental performance is quantified by approximation ratios that are 91% and 83% of the optimal theoretical values. Our model predicts $0.93^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ and $0.95^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, respectively, with disagreement in the latter value attributable to secondary noise sources beyond those considered in our analysis. With realistic experimental improvements to reduce measurement error and radial trap frequency variations, the model achieves approximation ratios that are 99% of the optimal. Incorporating these improvements into future experiments is expected to reveal new aspects of noise for future modeling and experimental improvements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Direct measurement of 59 Ni( n, p ) 59 Co and 59 Ni( n, α ) 56 Fe at fast-neutron energies from 500 keV to 10 MeV

We report nuclear reaction data for neutron induced reactions on unstable nuclei are critical for a wide range of applications spanning studies of nuclear astrophysics, nuclear reactor designs, and radiochemistry diagnostics. However, nuclear data evaluations of the reaction cross sections are largely based on calculations due to the difficulty in performing this class of measurements and the resulting lack of experimental data. For neutron induced charged particle reactions at fast neutron energies, at the MeV scale, these cross section predictions are predominately driven by statistical Hauser-Feshbach calculations. In this work, we present partial and total 59 Ni(n, p) and 59 Ni(n, α) cross sections, measured directly with a radioactive 59 Ni target, and compare the results to the present nuclear data evaluations. In addition, the results from this work are compared to a recent study of the 59 Ni(n, xp) reaction cross section that was performed via an indirect surrogate ratio method. The expected energy trend of the cross section, based on the current work, is inconsistent with that of the surrogate work. This calls into question the reliability of that application of the surrogate ratio method and highlights the need for direct measurements on unstable nuclei, when feasible.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers with a spectral equation of state

In numerical simulations of binary neutron star systems, the equation of state of the dense neutron star matter is an important factor in determining both the physical realism and the numerical accuracy of the simulations. Some equations of state used in simulations are C 2 or smoother in the pressure/density relationship function, such as a polytropic equation of state, but may not have the flexibility to model stars or remnants of different masses while keeping their radii within known astrophysical constraints. Other equations of state, such as tabular or piece-wise polytropic, may be flexible enough to model additional physics and multiple stars' masses and radii within known constraints, but are not as smooth, resulting in additional numerical error. We will study in this paper a recently developed family of equation of state, using a spectral expansion with sufficient free parameters to allow for a larger flexibility than current polytropic equations of state, and with sufficient smoothness to reduce numerical errors compared to tabulated or piece-wise polytropic equations of state. We perform simulations at three mass ratios with a common chirp mass, using two distinct spectral equations of state, and at multiple numerical resolutions. We evaluate the gravitational waves produced from these simulations, comparing the phase error between resolutions and equations of state, as well as with respect to analytical models. From our simulations we estimate that the phase difference at merger for binaries with a dimensionless weighted tidal deformability difference greater than Δ$\tilde{Λ}$=55 can be captured by the SpEC code for these equations of state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parallel Operation of Multiple Closely Spaced Small Aspect Ratio Rod Pinches

A series of simulations and experiments to resolve questions about the operation of arrays of closely spaced small aspect ratio rod pinches has been performed. Design and post-shot analysis of the experimental results are supported by 3D particle-in-cell simulations. Both simulations and experiments support these conclusions. Penetration of current to the interior of the array appears to be efficient, as the current on the center rods is essentially equal to the current on the outer rods. Current loss in the feed due to the formation of magnetic nulls was avoided in these experiments by design of the feed surface of the cathode and control of the gap to keep the electric fields on the cathode below the emission threshold. Some asymmetry in the electron flow to the rod was observed, but the flow appeared to symmetrize as it reached the end of the rod. Interaction between the rod pinches can be controlled to allow the stable and consistent operation of arrays of rod pinches.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Machine Learning Wall Modeling Approaches for Large Eddy Simulation of Gas Turbine Film Cooling Flows: An a Priori Study

Here, in this work, a priori analysis of machine learning (ML) strategies is carried out with the goal of data-driven wall modeling for large eddy simulation (LES) of gas turbine film cooling flows. High-fidelity flow datasets are extracted from wall-resolved LES (WRLES) of flow over a flat plate interacting with the coolant flow supplied by a single row of 7-7-7 shaped cooling holes inclined at 30 degrees with the flat plate at different blowing ratios (BR). The WRLES are performed using the high-order Nek5000 spectral element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is employed as the ML algorithm for the data-driven wall model. Parametric tests are conducted to systematically assess the influence of a wide range of input flow features (velocity components, velocity gradients, pressure gradients, and fluid properties) on the accuracy of ML wall model with respect to prediction of wall shear stress. In addition, the use of spatial stencil and time delay is also explored within the ML wall modeling framework. It is shown that features associated with gradients of the streamwise and spanwise velocity components have a major impact on the prediction fidelity of wall model, while the effect of gradients of wall-normal velocity component is found to be negligible. Moreover, adding flow feature information from an x-y-z spatial stencil significantly improves the ML model accuracy and generalizability compared to just using local flow features from the matching location. Overall, highest prediction accuracy is achieved when both spatial stencil and time delay features are incorporated within the data-driven wall modeling paradigm.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-I-06: A Dose Calculation Algorithm for KV Diagnostic Imaging Beams by Empirical Modeling

Purpose: To develop accurate three-dimensional (3D) empirical dose calculation model for kV diagnostic beams for different radiographic and CT imaging techniques. Methods: Dose was modeled using photon attenuation measured using depth dose (DD), scatter radiation of the source and medium, and off-axis ratio (OAR) profiles. Measurements were performed using single-diode in water and a diode-array detector (MapCHECK2) with kV on-board imagers (OBI) integrated with Varian TrueBeam and Trilogy linacs. The dose parameters were measured for three energies: 80, 100, and 125 kVp with and without bowtie filters using field sizes 1×1–40×40 cm2 and depths 0–20 cm in water tank. Results: The measured DD decreased with depth in water because of photon attenuation, while it increased with field size due to increased scatter radiation from medium. DD curves varied with energy and filters where they increased with higher energies and beam hardening from half-fan and full-fan bowtie filters. Scatter radiation factors increased with field sizes and higher energies. The OAR was with 3% for beam profiles within the flat dose regions. The heal effect of this kV OBI system was within 6% from the central axis value at different depths. The presence of bowtie filters attenuated measured dose off-axis by as much as 80% at the edges of large beams. The model dose predictions were verified with measured doses using single point diode and ionization chamber or two-dimensional diode-array detectors inserted in solid water phantoms. Conclusion: This empirical model enables fast and accurate 3D dose calculation in water within 5% in regions with near charge-particle equilibrium conditions outside buildup region and penumbra. It considers accurately scatter radiation contribution in water which is superior to air-kerma or CTDI dose measurements used usually in dose calculation for diagnostic imaging beams. Considering heterogeneity corrections in this model will enable patient specific dose calculation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-D-207B-03: Early Assessment of Response to Chemoradiotherapy Based On Textural Analysis of Pre and Mid-Treatment FDG-PET Image in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

Purpose: To evaluate whether tumor textural features extracted from both pre- and mid-treatment FDG-PET images predict early response to chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer, and investigate whether they provide complementary value to conventional volume-based measurements. Methods: Ninety-four patients with locally advanced head and neck cancers were retrospectively studied. All patients received definitive chemoradiotherapy and underwent FDG-PET planning scans both before and during treatment. Within the primary tumor we extracted 6 textural features based on gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM): entropy, dissimilarity, contrast, correlation, energy, and homogeneity. These image features were evaluated for their predictive power of treatment response to chemoradiotherapy in terms of local recurrence free survival (LRFS) and progression free survival (PFS). Logrank test were used to assess the statistical significance of the stratification between low- and high-risk groups. P-values were adjusted for multiple comparisons by the false discovery rate (FDR) method. Results: All six textural features extracted from pre-treatment PET images significantly differentiated low- and high-risk patient groups for LRFS (P=0.011–0.038) and PFS (P=0.029–0.034). On the other hand, none of the textural features on mid-treatment PET images was statistically significant in stratifying LRFS (P=0.212–0.445) or PFS (P=0.168–0.299). An imaging signature that combines textural feature (GLCM homogeneity) and metabolic tumor volume showed an improved performance for predicting LRFS (hazard ratio: 22.8, P<0.0001) and PFS (hazard ratio: 13.9, P=0.0005) in leave-one-out cross validation. Intra-tumor heterogeneity measured by textural features was significantly lower in mid-treatment PET images than in pre-treatment PET images (T-test: P<1.4e-6). Conclusion: Tumor textural features on pretreatment FDG-PET images are predictive for response to chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer. The complementary information offered by textural features improves patient stratification and may potentially aid in personalized risk-adaptive therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Nuclear Effects in the Deuteron in the Resonance and Deep-Inelastic Scattering Region

We discuss a model of the proton and neutron inelastic structure functions applicable in a wide region of the invariant mass W of produced hadronic states. The model relies on a hybrid approach, in which the scattering at sufficiently large values of W is described in terms of the parton distribution functions, while at low W we account for the contribution from the nucleon resonances. We apply the model to compute the deuteron structure function F{sub 2}{sup d} and perform systematic study of the ratios F{sub 2}{sup n}/ F{sub 2}{sup d} and (F{sub 2}{sup p}+F{sub 2}{sup n})/ F{sub 2}{sup d} for both, the deep-inelastic and the resonance, region in the context of recent measurements of BoNuS experiment at Jefferson Lab.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Opportunities for Simultaneous Efficiency Improvement and Refrigerant Transition in Air Conditioning

In October of 2016, nearly 200 Parties agreed to amend the Montreal Protocol in Kigali, Rwanda, to phase-down consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by 2050. Growth in the use of HFCs, including those currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, is being driven by demand from emerging economies, hot climates, and rising incomes that are also undergoing rapid urbanization and electrification. Air conditioners (ACs), as an energy-intensive end-use technology, are also covered by a growing number of energy efficiency standards, labeling, procurement, incentive, and other supporting efficiency programs. Therefore, improving room AC energy efficiency and transitioning to low-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants simultaneously presents significant opportunities to deploy energy efficient technology and reduce the energy and emissions impacts of room ACs, while keeping costs low for consumers. This report aims to provide an initial sense of the opportunities to improve efficiency and transition to low-GWP refrigerants by reviewing the HCFC and HFC regulatory framework and energy efficiency standards and labeling programs in 19 economies that account for roughly 65 percent of global room AC demand. Based on this analysis, we identified key opportunities for coordinated action on efficiency improvement and refrigerant transition for the domestic room AC sector (i.e., ductless mini-split ACs), such as: - implementing or revising standards and labeling programs to improve efficiency levels with the possibility of adding a low-GWP criterion. - combining fixed speed and inverter AC product categories to account for seasonal variations in climate and part-load operating conditions, and using seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) instead of energy efficiency ratio (EER) to better reflect performance of inverter ACs. - implementing market transformation programs, such as bulk procurement programs, to drive down the costs of efficient technology through economies of scale. - aligning timelines for implementing efficiency standards with timelines for refrigerant management plans to coordinate policy actions. - maximizing the energy efficiency improvements of Montreal Protocol investments by coordinating efforts to help keep costs low for consumers and manufacturers during equipment redesign and manufacturing line retooling for refrigerant transition. In order to realize the significant peak load, energy saving and climate benefits of these opportunities associated with improving energy efficiency in tandem with the refrigerant transition, some risks may need to be mitigated, principally safety concerns over risks of accidental ignition with refrigerants rated flammable. This can be mitigated by continuing and accelerating the development of safety standards currently being updated, for example, by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and improving training for production, installation and maintenance during the use of flammable refrigerants. While some low-GWP refrigerants may cost more than the current baseline refrigerants, the cost of refrigerants is only ~1% of lifecycle costs for an AC. Costs can also be reduced through manufacturing advances and efficiency improvements, particularly if they are supported by policies that encourage technological development through deployment of superefficient ACs at scale. Finally, during the transition, there is a risk of obsolete technology being deployed in markets that either have not updated their standards or have later compliance dates. This risk can be mitigated by updating standards and reviewing them periodically to ensure their effectiveness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding and modeling current and future coastal wetland methane dynamics (Final Report)

The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic component of the Earth system that plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling. Due to its dynamic nature, the processes that regulate decomposition and methane (CH 4 ) emissions are of greater significance at the TAI than in upland systems. Despite this, we have limited mechanistic understanding of how climate stressors interact to regulate the electron acceptors and donors that determine decomposition pathways within TAIs, including the generation of hot spots and hot moments. Accurately modeling these processes is critical for incorporating the coastal TAI into Earth systems models, such as DOE’s E3SM. With previous DOE support, we adapted an aerobic terrestrial representation of decomposition using PFLOTRAN, a reactive flow and transport model, and added anerobic decomposition pathways, salinity, and oxygen (O 2 ) that fluctuates independently of water table level. However, because this model (PFLOTRAN TAI ) is based on decomposition rates and organic matter carbon to nitrogen ratios from terrestrial systems, its performance in TAI systems is currently limited by the lack of empirical data to properly parameterize variables. In addition, while PFLOTRAN TAI can simulate movement of O 2 into sediments, it is not currently capable of tracking the movement of CH 4 gas through plant tissues due to both current model structure and lack of available data. Our overall objective of the project was the increase our mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics in response to environmental change, such that we can improve the representation of these dynamics in PFLOTRAN. We installed automated flux chambers in a new field-scale active soil warming experiment and set up marsh organs (mesocosms) to test effects of warming, flooding, and salinity. This resulted in a new dataset consisting of chamber-level CH 4 flux measurements across multiple sites, ecological conditions, and timeframes, as well as corresponding measurements on porewater chemistry, soil carbon quality, plant biomass, and redox reaction rates. Using these data, we improved PFLOTRAN TAI to more accurately model CH 4 dynamics and successfully tested our hypotheses. This grant contributed to the professional development of 3 postdocs, 4 undergraduate interns, 4 teacher interns, 17 technicians, and 15 participatory scientists. The automated chamber technology designed for this grant has also been shared with multiple new projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model’s performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in the Demeter downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users, and ultimately contribute to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limits on Leptonic TeV Emission from the Cygnus Cocoon with Swift-XRT

$\gamma$-ray observations of the Cygnus Cocoon, an extended source surrounding the Cygnus X star-forming region, suggest the presence of a cosmic ray accelerator reaching energies up to a few PeV. The very-high-energy (VHE; 0.1-100~TeV) $\gamma$-ray emission may be explained by the interaction of cosmic-ray hadrons with matter inside the Cocoon, but an origin of inverse Compton radiation by relativistic electrons cannot be ruled out. Inverse Compton $\gamma$-rays at VHE are accompanied by synchrotron radiation peaked in X-rays. Hence, X-ray observations may probe the electron population and magnetic field of the source. We observed eleven fields in or near the Cygnus Cocoon with the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory's X-Ray Telescope (Swift-XRT) totaling 110 ksec. We fit the fields to a Galactic and extra-galactic background model and performed a log-likelihood ratio test for an additional diffuse component. We found no significant additional emission and established upper limits in each field. By assuming that the X-ray intensity traces the TeV intensity and follows an dN/dE ∝ E -2.5 spectrum, we obtained a 90% upper limit of F X < 8.7 x 10 -11 erg cm -2 s -1 or 5.2 x10 -11 erg cm -2 s -1 on the X-ray flux of the entire Cygnus Cocoon between 2 and 10 keV depending on the choice of hydrogen column density model. This suggests that no more than one quarter of the $\gamma$-ray flux at 1 TeV is produced by inverse Compton scattering, when assuming an equipartition magnetic field of ~20 μG.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of expanded marine sulfur chemistry to the seasonal variability of dimethyl sulfide oxidation products and size-resolved sulfate aerosol

Marine emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and the subsequent formation of its oxidation products methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) are well-known natural precursors of atmospheric aerosols, contributing to particle mass and cloud formation over ocean and coastal regions. Despite a long recognized and well-studied role in the marine troposphere, DMS oxidation chemistry remains a work in progress within many current air quality and climate models, with recent advances exploring heterogeneous chemistry and uncovering previously unknown intermediate species. With the identification of additional DMS oxidation path ways and intermediate species that influence the eventual fate of DMS, it is important to understand the impact of these pathways on the overall sulfate aerosol budget and aerosol size distribution. In this work, we update and evaluate the DMS oxidation mechanism of the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem by implementing expanded DMS oxidation pathways in the model. These updates include gas- and aqueous-phase reactions, the formation of the intermediates dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and methanesulfinic acid (MSIA), and cloud loss and aerosol uptake of the recently quantified intermediate hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF). We find that this updated mechanism collectively decreases the global mean surface-layer gas-phase sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) mixing ratio by 40 % and enhances the sulfate aerosol ($SO^{2-}_{4}$) mixing ratio by 17 %. We further perform sensitivity analyses exploring the contribution of cloud loss and aerosol uptake of HPMTF to the overall sulfur budget. Comparing modeled concentrations to available observations, we find improved biases relative to previous studies. To quantify the impacts of these chemistry updates on global particle size distributions and the mass concentration, we use the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics module coupled to GEOS-Chem and find that changes in particle formation and growth affect the size distribution of aerosol. With this new DMS-oxidation scheme, the global annual mean surface-layer number concentration of particles with diameters smaller than 80 nm decreases by 16.8 %, with cloud loss processes related to HPMTF being mostly responsible for this reduction. However, the global annual mean number of particles larger than 80 nm (corresponding to particles capable of acting as cloud condensation nuclei, CCN) increases by 3.8 %, suggesting that the new scheme promotes seasonal particle growth to these sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗