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At least 973 records · Page 54

A compilation of first-order line-mixing coefficients for CO2 Q-branches

A parameterization of first-order line-mixing in CO2 Q-branches is presented for use in atmospheric radiative transfer codes. Regression coefficients for the temperature dependence of the first-order line-mixing parameters for each J in 11 of the strongest Q-branches between 600 and 3000/cm are given. These coefficients may only be used with the line strengths and widths reported in the HITRAN92 line compilation; otherwise large errors will be introduced into the calculated line shape. Other potential problems in the implementation of first-order line-mixing in radiative transfer codes are also discussed.

Strow, L. Larrabee↗

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of Advanced Thermoelectric Materials and Their Functional Limits

The world's demand for energy is increasing dramatically, but the best energy conversion systems operate at approximately 30% efficiency. One way to decrease energy loss is in the recovery of waste heat using thermoelectric (TE) generators. A TE generator is device that generates electricity by exploiting heat flow across a thermal gradient. The efficiency of a TE material for power generation and cooling is determined by the dimensionless Figure of Merit (ZT): ZT = S(exp. 2)sigmaT/κ: where S is the Seebeck coefficient, sigma is the electrical conductivity, T is the absolute temperature, and κ is the thermal conductivity. The parameters are not physically independent, but intrinsically coupled since they are a function of the transport properties of electrons. Traditional research on TE materials has focused on synthesizing bulk semiconductor-type materials that have low thermal conductivity and high electrical conductivity affording ZT values of 1. The optimization of the σ/κ ratio is difficult to achieve using current material formats, as these material constants are complementary. Recent areas of research are focusing on using nanostructural artifacts that introduce specific dislocations and boundary conditions that scatter the phonons. This disrupts the physical link between thermal (phonon) and electrical (electron) transport. The result is that κ is decreased without decreasing σ. These material formats give ZT values of up to 2 which represent approximately 18% energy gain from waste heat recovery. The next challenge in developing the next generation of TE materials with superior performance is to tailor the interconnected thermoelectric physical parameters of the material system. In order to approach this problem, the fundamental physics of each parameter S, sigma, and κ need to be physically understood in their context of electron/phonon interaction for the construction of new high ZT thermoelectric devices. Is it possible to overcome the physical limit imposed by of the effect of phonon lattice oscillation and energetic electrons towards thermal conductivity? Is the Seebeck coefficient, based on the difference in voltage over temperature gradient ( deltaV/deltaT), an intrinsic parameter of each material? All these parameters were manipulated using nano-bridge and twin-lattice structural concepts at the NASA Langley Research Center. This talk will review the current trend of TE research to optimize the ZT and discuss about new approaches on increasing ZT within functional limits of each parameter.

Kim, Hyun Jung↗

Survey of neutrino flavor predictions and the neutrinoless double beta decay funnel

The neutrinoless double beta decay experimental effort continues to make tremendous progress with hopes of covering the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy in coming years and pushing from the quasidegenerate hierarchy into the normal hierarchy. As neutrino oscillation data are starting to suggest that the mass ordering may be normal, we may well be faced with staring down the funnel of death: a region of parameter space in the normal ordering where—for a particular cancellation among the absolute neutrino mass scale, the Majorana phases, and the oscillation parameters—the neutrinoless double beta decay rate may be vanishingly small. To answer the question of whether this region of parameter space is theoretically preferred, we survey five broad categories of flavor model structures which make various different predictions for parameters relevant for neutrinoless double beta decay to determine how likely it is that the rate may be in this funnel region. We find that a non-negligible fraction of predictions surveyed are at least partially in the funnel region. Our results can guide model builders and experimentalists alike in focusing their efforts on theoretically motivated regions of parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Large-eddy simulation of non-vaporizing sprays using the spectral-element method

Predictive simulations of high-pressure sprays require accurate representation of the turbulent gaseous flow field generated by liquid jet. Typically, the accuracy that can be obtained with low-order numerical methods (e.g. finite volume, finite element) is limited by stability issues in fine grids and the order of convergence of the method. In this work, we resolve the turbulent flow field in an Eulerian manner using the high-order spectral element method, coupled with a Lagrangian parcels approach to model the atomizing liquid jet. Large eddy simulations of single-hole sprays under non-evaporative conditions were conducted and compared against experimental data from Margot et al. (2008) and Spray A data from the Engine Combustion Network. The sensitivity of liquid penetration and droplet sizes to different breakup model parameters was studied. The effect of different numerical parameters, such as polynomial order of the solution (grid resolution), on liquid penetration was also analyzed. The method achieved grid-independent results using p-refinement, achieving finer resolution (by a factor of x 1.7 - x 3.5) in the gas-phase solution than in state-of-the-art simulations using the finite-volume method. Here the results showed good agreement with experimental data, demonstrating the ability of the current method to accurately capture liquid penetration and the shape of the spray.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Likelihood for Small-Scale CMB Data

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope has measured the angular power spectra of microwave fluctuations to arcminute scales at frequencies of 148 and 218 GHz, from three seasons of data. At small scales the fluctuations in the primordial Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) become increasingly obscured by extragalactic foregounds and secondary CMB signals. We present results from a nine-parameter model describing these secondary effects, including the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ and kSZ) power; the clustered and Poisson-like power from Cosmic Infrared Background (CIB) sources, and their frequency scaling; the tSZ-CIB correlation coefficient; the extragalactic radio source power; and thermal dust emission from Galactic cirrus in two different regions of the sky. In order to extract cosmological parameters, we describe a likelihood function for the ACT data, fitting this model to the multi-frequency spectra in the multipole range 500 < l < 10000. We extend the likelihood to include spectra from the South Pole Telescope at frequencies of 95, 150, and 220 GHz. Accounting for different radio source levels and Galactic cirrus emission, the same model provides an excellent fit to both datasets simultaneously, with χ2/dof= 675/697 for ACT, and 96/107 for SPT. We then use the multi-frequency likelihood to estimate the CMB power spectrum from ACT in bandpowers, marginalizing over the secondary parameters. This provides a simplified 'CMB-only' likelihood in the range 500 < l < 3500 for use in cosmological parameter estimation

Cosmology↗

Evolving CO 2 rather than SST leads to a factor of ten decrease in GCM convergence time

The high computational cost of Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a problem that limits their use in many areas. Recently an inverse climate modeling (InvCM) method, which fixes the global mean sea surface temperature (SST) and evolves the CO 2 mixing ratio to equilibrate climate, has been implemented in a cloud resolving model. In this paper, we apply InvCM to ExoCAM GCM aquaplanet simulations, allowing the SST pattern to evolve while maintaining a fixed global-mean SST. We find that InvCM produces the same climate as normal slab-ocean simulations but converges an order of magnitude faster. We then use InvCM to calculate the equilibrium CO 2 for SSTs ranging from 290 K to 340 K at 1 K intervals and reproduce the large increase in climate sensitivity at an SST of about 315 K at much higher temperature resolution. The speedup provided by InvCM could be used to equilibrate GCMs at higher spatial resolution or to perform broader parameter space exploration in order to gain new insight into the climate system. Additionally, InvCM could be used to find unstable and hidden climate states, and to find climate states close to bifurcations such as the runaway greenhouse transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On-Wafer S-Parameter Measurements in the 325-508-GHz Band

New circuits have been designed and fabricated with operating frequencies over 325 GHz. In order to measure S-parameters of these circuits, an extensive process of wafer dicing and packaging, and waveguide transition design, fabrication, and packaging would be required. This is a costly and time-consuming process before the circuit can be tested in waveguide. The new probes and calibration procedures will simplify the testing process. New on-wafer probes, and a procedure for their calibration, have been developed that allow fast and inexpensive S-parameter characterization of circuits in the 325 -508 -GHz frequency band. The on-wafer probes transition from rectangular waveguide to coplanar waveguide probe tips with 40- m nominal signal-to-ground pin pitch so as to allow for probing circuits on a wafer. The probes with bias tees have been optimized for minimal insertion loss and maximum return loss when placed on 50-ohm structures to allow for calibration. The calibration process has been developed using the Thru-Reflect-Line Agilent algorithm with JPL determined calibration structures and calibration coefficients for the algorithm. This new test capability is presently unique to JPL. With it, researchers will be able to better develop circuits such as low-noise amplifiers, power amplifiers, multipliers, and mixers for heterodyne receivers in the 325-508-GHz frequency band for remote sensing/spectroscopy.

Fung, King Man↗

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Automated Method for Estimating Nutation Time Constant Model Parameters for Spacecraft Spinning on Axis

Calculating an accurate nutation time constant (NTC), or nutation rate of growth, for a spinning upper stage is important for ensuring mission success. Spacecraft nutation, or wobble, is caused by energy dissipation anywhere in the system. Propellant slosh in the spacecraft fuel tanks is the primary source for this dissipation and, if it is in a state of resonance, the NTC can become short enough to violate mission constraints. The Spinning Slosh Test Rig (SSTR) is a forced-motion spin table where fluid dynamic effects in full-scale fuel tanks can be tested in order to obtain key parameters used to calculate the NTC. We accomplish this by independently varying nutation frequency versus the spin rate and measuring force and torque responses on the tank. This method was used to predict parameters for the Genesis, Contour, and Stereo missions, whose tanks were mounted outboard from the spin axis. These parameters are incorporated into a mathematical model that uses mechanical analogs, such as pendulums and rotors, to simulate the force and torque resonances associated with fluid slosh.

Source record↗

On-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft

The process of on-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft is examined in terms of the difficulties that are expected because of the potentially unmanageable number of unknown model parameters due to the very high order system models involved. A Jordon block canonical form and global model parameters are used to reduce the number of unknown parameters to manageable numbers. A Bayesian approach is discussed which enables the merging of theoretical models with ground or on-orbit test results by using Unconditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation. A Modified Newton-Raphson technique is proposed for determining the model parameter estimates and an expected fit error criterion is recommended for the determination of the model structure and order reduction.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗

Improved Passive Microwave Algorithms for North America and Eurasia

Microwave algorithms simplify complex physical processes in order to estimate geophysical parameters such as snow cover and snow depth. The microwave radiances received at the satellite sensor and expressed as brightness temperatures are a composite of contributions from the Earth's surface, the Earth's atmosphere and from space. Owing to the coarse resolution inherent to passive microwave sensors, each pixel value represents a mixture of contributions from different surface types including deep snow, shallow snow, forests and open areas. Algorithms are generated in order to resolve these mixtures. The accuracy of the retrieved information is affected by uncertainties in the assumptions used in the radiative transfer equation (Steffen et al., 1992). One such uncertainty in the Chang et al., (1987) snow algorithm is that the snow grain radius is 0.3 mm for all layers of the snowpack and for all physiographic regions. However, this is not usually the case. The influence of larger grain sizes appears to be of more importance for deeper snowpacks in the interior of Eurasia. Based on this consideration and the effects of forests, a revised SMMR snow algorithm produces more realistic snow mass values. The purpose of this study is to present results of the revised algorithm (referred to for the remainder of this paper as the GSFC 94 snow algorithm) which incorporates differences in both fractional forest cover and snow grain size. Results from the GSFC 94 algorithm will be compared to the original Chang et al. (1987) algorithm and to climatological snow depth data as well.

Foster, James↗

Quantitation of buried contamination by use of solvents. Part 1: Solvent degradation of amine cured epoxy resins

The solubility and/or swelling of cured epoxy resins was studied using the solubility parameter method. Determination of solubility parameters were found in order to select solvents for solvent-assisted degradation of cured epoxy polymers used in spacecraft. A method for improving recovery of seeded spores is suggested for assay of buried contaminants. Three commercial epoxy resins were cured using four different alkyl amines. For each resin-amine combination, three levels of amine were used, corresponding to 1/3, 2/3, and all of the amine required to react with the oxirane groups of the resin. The solubility parameters of the 36 resulting model compounds were determined in poorly and moderately hydrogen-bonded solvents. No strongly hydrogen-bonded solvents caused dissolution or swelling. The tolerance of cured resins is discussed in terms of polymer structure.

Rheineck, A. E.↗

Galilean satellites - Analysis of photometric eclipses

The excellent series of photometric eclipses of the Galilean satellites observed at Harvard from 1878 to 1903, which formed the basis for Sampson's study of the Galilean satellites, have been combined with the relatively few available post-1903 photometric eclipse observations in order to evaluate the satellite parameters which occur in the new theory of motion of the satellites. After obtaining values for the epsilon-beta parameters, the mutual eclipses and occultations observed in 1973 are compared with the new theory in order to assess the degradation which might occur in the 84 years which have elapsed since the mean epoch of the photometric eclipses. The results indicate that the new theory satisfactorily can predict ephemeris positions of the Galilean satellites over spans of nearly a century and that it will be a useful tool for analyzing future observations.

Lieske, J. H.↗

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP) Observations: Data Processing Methods and Systematic Errors Limits

We describe the calibration and data processing methods used to generate full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from the first year of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations. Detailed limits on residual systematic errors are assigned based largely on analyses of the flight data supplemented, where necessary, with results from ground tests. The data are calibrated in flight using the dipole modulation of the CMB due to the observatory's motion around the Sun. This constitutes a full-beam calibration source. An iterative algorithm simultaneously fits the time-ordered data to obtain calibration parameters and pixelized sky map temperatures. The noise properties are determined by analyzing the time-ordered data with this sky signal estimate subtracted. Based on this, we apply a pre-whitening filter to the time-ordered data to remove a low level of l/f noise. We infer and correct for a small (approx. 1 %) transmission imbalance between the two sky inputs to each differential radiometer, and we subtract a small sidelobe correction from the 23 GHz (K band) map prior to further analysis. No other systematic error corrections are applied to the data. Calibration and baseline artifacts, including the response to environmental perturbations, are negligible. Systematic uncertainties are comparable to statistical uncertainties in the characterization of the beam response. Both are accounted for in the covariance matrix of the window function and are propagated to uncertainties in the final power spectrum. We characterize the combined upper limits to residual systematic uncertainties through the pixel covariance matrix.

Hinshaw, G.↗

Ice haze, snow, and the Mars water cycle

Light curves and extinction profiles derived from Martian limb observations are used to constrain the atmospheric temperature structure in regions of the atmosphere with thin haze and to analyze the haze particle properties and atmospheric eddy mixing. Temperature between 170 and 190 K are obtained for three cases at levels in the atmosphere ranging from 20 to 50 km. Eddy diffusion coefficients around 100,000 sq cm/s, typical of a nonconvecting atmosphere, are derived in the haze regions at times when the atmosphere is relatively clear of dust. This parameter apparently changes by more than three orders of magnitude with season and local conditions. The derived particle size parameter varies systematically by more than an order of magnitude with condensation level, in such a way that the characteristic fall time is always about one Martian day. Ice hazes provide a mechanism for scavenging water vapor in the thin Mars atmosphere and may play a key role in the seasonal cycle of water on Mars.

Kahn, Ralph↗

Methodology for the systems engineering process. Volume 2: Technical parameters

A scheme based on starting the logic networks from the development and mission factors that are of primary concern in an aerospace system is described. This approach required identifying the primary states (design, design verification, premission, mission, postmission), identifying the attributes within each state (performance capability, survival, evaluation, operation, etc), and then developing the generic relationships of variables for each branch. To illustrate this concept, a system was used that involved a launch vehicle and payload for an earth orbit mission. Examination showed that this example was sufficient to illustrate the concept. A more complicated mission would follow the same basic approach, but would have more extensive sets of generic trees and more correlation points between branches. It has been shown that in each system state (production, test, and use), a logic could be developed to order and classify the parameters involved in the translation from general requirements to specific requirements for system elements.

Nelson, J. H.↗

Marginal unbiased score expansion and application to CMB lensing

Here, we present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces, yielding Gaussianized asymptotically unbiased and near-optimal constraints on global parameters of interest. It is computationally much cheaper than exact alternatives like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), excelling on funnel problems which challenge HMC, and does not require any problem-specific user supervision like other approximate methods such as variational inference or many simulation-based inference methods. MUSE makes possible the first joint Bayesian estimation of the delensed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum and gravitational lensing potential power spectrum, demonstrated here on a simulated data set as large as the upcoming South Pole Telescope 3G 1500 deg 2 survey, corresponding to a latent dimensionality of ~6 million and of order 100 global bandpower parameters. On a subset of the problem where an exact but more expensive HMC solution is feasible, we verify that MUSE yields nearly optimal results. We also demonstrate that existing spectrum-based forecasting tools which ignore pixel-masking underestimate predicted error bars by only ~10%. This method is a promising path forward for fast lensing and delensing analyses which will be necessary for future CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, or CMB-S4, and can complement or supersede existing HMC approaches. The success of MUSE on this challenging problem strengthens its case as a generic procedure for a broad class of high-dimensional inference problems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗