Robust Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design under Model Misspecification
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Helium is integral in several industries, including nuclear waste management and semiconductors. Thus, developing a sensing method for detecting helium is essential to ensure the proper operation of such facilities. Several approaches can be used for helium detection, including based on the high thermal conductivity of helium, which is several times higher than air. This work utilizes the high thermal conductivity of helium to design and analyze a bimorph MEMS sensor for helium sensing applications. COMSOL Multiphysics software (version 6.2) is used to carry out this investigation. The sensor is constructed from poly-silicon and SiO 2 materials with a trenched cantilever beam configuration. The sensor is electrically heated, and its morphed displacement depends on the surrounding gas’s composition, which decreases in the presence of helium. Several factors were investigated to probe their effect on the sensor’s sensitivity to helium, including the thickness of the poly-silicon layer, the configuration of the trench, and the thickness and location of SiO 2 layer. The simulations showed that the best performance, up to 2 ppm helium detection level, can be achieved with thinner beams and medium trench lengths.
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The effect of visual information in combination with basic display information on the approach performance. A pre-experimental model analysis was performed in terms of the optimal control model. The resulting aircraft approach performance predictions were compared with the results of a moving base simulator program. The results illustrate that the model provides a meaningful description of the visual (scene) perception process involved in the complex (multi-variable, time varying) manual approach task with a useful predictive capability. The theoretical framework was shown to allow a straight-forward investigation of the complex interaction of a variety of task variables.
An optimal Routh approximant of a single-input single-output dynamic system is a reduced-order transfer function of which the denominator is obtained by the Routh approximation method while the numerator is determined by minimizing a time-response integral-squared-error (ISE) criterion. In this paper, a new elegant approach is presented for obtaining the optimal Routh approximants for linear time-invariant continuous-time systems. The approach is based on the Routh canonical expansion, which is a finite-term orthogonal series of rational basis functions, and minimization of the ISE criterion. A procedure for combining the above approach with the bilinear transformation is also presented in order to obtain the optimal bilinear Routh approximants of linear time-invariant discrete-time systems. The proposed technique is simple in formulation and is amenable to practical implementation.
Recent trends in spacecraft design which yield larger structures with more stringent performance requirements place many flexible modes of the structure within the bandwidth of active controllers. The resulting complications to the spacecraft design make it highly desirable to understand the impact of structural changes on an optimally controlled structure. This work uses low structural models with optimal H(sub 2) and H(sub infinity) controllers to develop some basic insight into this problem. This insight concentrates on several basic approaches to improving controlled performance and how these approaches interact in determining the optimal designs. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate how this insight can be generalized to more complex problems.
The proposed numerical techniques are briefly described and compared to existing algorithms. Their accuracy and robustness are demonstrated through numerical tests with models from ongoing NASA missions.
Investigations of the sea state bias in altimeter measurements of sea surface height have been reported by many authors based on aircraft, sea tower and satellite borne observations, resulting in several proposed algorithms of the form SSB = H, where H is the significant wave height (SWH) and is a nondimensional function of wind and wave parameters. The reported values for empirical coefficients in these algorithms differ widely. In the present work, based on the most complete set of satellite measurements (Geosat altimeter) employed for such studies, all known algorithms are rated...
The chemical and dynamical processes governing the zonal variability of tropical tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide are investigated for November 2004 using satellite observations, in-situ measurements, and chemical transport models in conjunction with inverse-estimated surface emissions. Vertical ozone profile estimates from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and ozone sonde measurements from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network show the so called zonal 'wave-one' pattern, which is characterized by peak ozone concentrations (70-80 ppb) centered over the Atlantic, as well as elevated concentrations of ozone over Indonesia and Australia (60-70 ppb) in the lower troposphere. Observational evidence from TES CO vertical profiles and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 columns point to regional surface emissions as an important contributor to the elevated ozone over Indonesia. This contribution is investigated with the GEOS-Chem chemistry and transport model using surface emission estimates derived from an optimal inverse model, which was constrained by TES and Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) CO profiles (Jones et al., 2007). These a posteriori estimates, which were over a factor of 2 greater than climatological emissions, reduced differences between GEOS-Chem and TES ozone observations by 30-40% and led to changes in GEOS-Chem upper tropospheric ozone of up to 40% over Indonesia. The remaining residual differences can be explained in part by upper tropospheric ozone produced from lightning NOx in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, model simulations from GEOS-Chem indicate that ozone over Indonesian/Australian is more sensitive to changes in surface emissions of NOx than ozone over the tropical Atlantic.
The SABER instrument on board the TIMED satellite is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure temperature and minor constituent vertical profiles and energetics parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) The H2O concentrations are retrieved from 6.3 micron band radiances. The interpretation of this radiance requires developing a non-LTE H2O model that includes energy exchange processes with the system of O3 and O2 vibrational levels populated at the daytime through a number of photoabsorption and photodissociation processes. We developed a research model base on an extended H2O non-LTE model of Manuilova coupled with the novel model of the electronic kinetics of the O2 and O3 photolysis products suggested by Yankosvky and Manuilova. The performed study of this model helped u to develop and test an optimized operational model for interpretation of SABER 6.3 micron band radiances. The sensitivity of retrievals to the parameters of the model is discussed. The H2O retrievals are compared to other measurements for different seasons and locations.
The FLuorescence EXplorer (FLEX) satellite mission, selected as ESA's 8th Earth Explorer, has been designed forthe measurement of sun-induced fluorescence (F) spectra emitted by plants. This will be accomplished through amulti-sensor approach by placing it in a common orbit in tandem with the Sentinel-3 (S3) mission, which willhave two optical sensors on board, OLCI (Ocean and Land Colour Instrument) and SLSTR (Sea and Land SurfaceTemperature Radiometer) to complement FLEX. These S3 instruments will be used in combination with theimaging spectrometers on board FLEX to provide data useful for atmospheric correction of FLEX data. However,a fully synergetic approach, i.e. by exploiting the spectral and directional information from all tandem missioninstruments together, is an attractive alternative which is explored in this paper. By employing all combined topof-atmosphere (TOA) spectral radiance data, one can (i) characterize the relevant optical properties of the atmosphere,(ii) retrieve biophysical canopy properties including the associated reflectance anisotropy, and (iii)retrieve a more accurate and consistent canopy F.Regarding retrieval methods, Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) and Spectral Fitting (SF) are well-known techniquesapplied to hyperspectral data. Both methods depend on a high spectral resolution and assume aLambertian (isotropic) canopy reflectance. However, most vegetation canopies are non-Lambertian. This impliesthat, in particular when ignoring the anisotropic surface reflection, substantial retrieval errors can occur due tothe interaction between atmospheric absorption bands and surface reflectance anisotropy. In this paper, a novelmethod based on spectral radiative transfer (RT) modeling is proposed, in which coupled RT models are used tosimulate TOA radiance spectra. These are then matched with ‘measured' spectra in order to retrieve surfacefluorescence, along with a suite of biophysical parameters, by model inversion through optimization. By applyingcoupled RT models of the soil-leaf-canopy and the surface-atmosphere systems, TOA radiance spectra canbe simulated for all optical sensors of this tandem mission. In this way, complex effects due to surface reflectanceanisotropy and the spectral sampling by the various instruments, which are difficult to compensate for in the endproducts, are properly taken into account by their incorporation in the forward modeling. Next, by model inversionof TOA radiance data via optimization, the most accurate F retrievals can be achieved in a consistentmanner, along with important canopy level biophysical parameters that may help interpret the F spectrum, suchas chlorophyll content and leaf area index (LAI). The potential of this approach has been explored in a numericalexperiment, and the results are presented in this paper. We find that, with the assumed well-characterized andplausible FLEX/S3 instrument performances, the simultaneous retrieval of biophysical canopy parameters and Fspectra would be possible with a remarkable accuracy, provided the correct atmospheric characterization isavailable.
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Aircraft icing remains a significant threat to aviation safety. Software that predicts the impingement and ice accretion on full aircraft geometries and aircraft components are in demand and NASA Glenn is committed to produce software that meets this need. One of the key parameters affecting an accurate prediction of iced geometry is the effect of ice roughness on the heat transfer coefficient. While many efforts have been made to implement the roughness in the flow solver, this report takes a correlation for roughness height distribution that is based on experimental measurements and demonstrates how to relate those measurements to an augmentation to the heat transfer coefficient provided by the flow solution. The outcome of this effort was the calibration of defaults for user supplied parameters to this correlation through comparison with 95 large glaze conditions from experiment by adjusting user-supplied parameters in the roughness augmentation equation.
Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.
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With increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, managing public fast-charging demand effectively is crucial to avoid grid strain. This study investigates the potential of using dynamic pricing schemes to address this challenge. Presented in this study is a scalable agent-based simulation framework, which is applied to a case study in Richmond, Virginia, that assumes a 50% EV adoption rate in 2040. Two pricing schemes are compared: (1) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on station utilization and (2) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on peak power at the station. These schemes are compared to two baseline scenarios: (1) unscheduled first-come, first-served and (2) scheduled with constant price. The study’s results suggest that dynamic pricing has the potential to influence EV charging behavior, inducing both spatial and temporal shifts, but does so at the cost of inducing inconvenience to EV drivers. The results suggest the peak-power dynamic pricing scheme has the potential to mitigate peak demand pressures on the grid with minimal inconvenience, offering a promising approach for sustainable EV charging infrastructure expansion.
We combined descriptor-based analytical models for stiffness-matrix and elastic-moduli with mean-field methods to accelerate assessment of technologically useful properties of high-entropy alloys, such as strength and ductility. Model training for elastic properties uses Sure-Independence Screening (SIS) and Sparsifying Operator (SO) method yielding an optimal analytical model, constructed with meaningful atomic features to predict target properties. Computationally inexpensive analytical descriptors were trained using a database of elastic properties determined from density functional theory for binary and ternary subsets of Nb-Mo-Ta-W-V refractory alloys. The optimal Elastic-SISSO models, extracted from an exponentially large feature space, give an extremely accurate prediction of target properties, similar to or better than other models, with some verified from existing experiments. Here we also show that electronegativity variance and elastic-moduli can directly predict trends in ductility and yield strength of refractory HEAs, and reveals promising alloy concentration regions.