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At least 973 records · Page 54

Data-based stochastic model reduction for the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation

In this paper, the problem of constructing data-based, predictive, reduced models for the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation is considered, under circumstances where one has observation data only for a small subset of the dynamical variables. Accurate prediction is achieved by developing a discrete-time stochastic reduced system, based on a NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous input) representation. The practical issue, with the NARMAX representation as with any other, is to identify an efficient structure, i.e., one with a small number of terms and coefficients. This is accomplished here by estimating coefficients for an approximate inertial form. Finally, the broader significance of the results is discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Practical and reliable error bars for quantum process tomography

Current techniques in quantum process tomography typically return a single point estimate of an unknown process based on a finite albeit large amount of measurement data. Due to statistical fluctuations, however, other processes close to the point estimate can also produce the observed data with near certainty. Unless appropriate error bars can be constructed, the point estimate does not carry any sound operational interpretation. Here, we provide a solution to this problem by constructing a confidence region estimator for quantum processes. Our method enables reliable estimation of essentially any figure of merit for quantum processes on few qubits, including the diamond distance to a specific noise model, the entanglement fidelity, and the worst-case entanglement fidelity, by identifying error regions which contain the true state with high probability. We also provide a software package, QPtomographer, implementing our estimator for the diamond norm and the worst-case entanglement fidelity. We illustrate its usage and performance with several simulated examples. Furthermore, our tools can be used to reliably certify the performance of, e.g., error correction codes, implementations of unitary gates, or more generally any noise process affecting a quantum system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Catalogue for Astrophysical Turbulence Simulations (CATS)

Turbulence is a key process in many fields of astrophysics. Advances in numerical simulations of fluids over the last several decades have revolutionized our understanding of turbulence and related processes such as star formation and cosmic ray propagation. However, data from numerical simulations of astrophysical turbulence are often not made public. We introduce a new simulation-oriented database for the astronomical community: the Catalogue for Astrophysical Turbulence Simulations (CATS), located at www.mhdturbulence.com. CATS includes magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulent box simulation data products generated by the public codes athena++, arepo, enzo, and flash. CATS also includes several synthetic observational data sets, such as turbulent HI data cubes. We also include measured power spectra and three-point correlation functions from some of these data. We discuss the importance of open-source statistical and visualization tools for the analysis of turbulence simulations such as those found in CATS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DISCOVERY OF A SUPERCLUSTER AT z ∼ 0.91 AND TESTING THE ΛCDM COSMOLOGICAL MODEL

The ΛCDM cosmological model successfully reproduces many aspects of the galaxy and structure formation of the universe. However, the growth of large-scale structures (LSSs) in the early universe is not well tested yet with observational data. Here, we have utilized wide and deep optical–near-infrared data in order to search for distant galaxy clusters and superclusters (0.8 < z < 1.2). From the spectroscopic observation with the Inamori Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph (IMACS) on the Magellan telescope, three massive clusters at z ∼ 0.91 are confirmed in the SSA22 field. Interestingly, all of them have similar redshifts within Δ z ∼ 0.01 with velocity dispersions ranging from 470 to 1300 km s{sup −1}. Moreover, as the maximum separation is ∼15 Mpc, they compose a supercluster at z ∼ 0.91, meaning that this is one of the most massive superclusters at this redshift to date. The galaxy density map implies that the confirmed clusters are embedded in a larger structure stretching over ∼100 Mpc. ΛCDM models predict about one supercluster like this in our surveyed volume, consistent with our finding so far. However, there are more supercluster candidates in this field, suggesting that additional studies are required to determine if the ΛCDM cosmological model can successfully reproduce the LSSs at high redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Do Arctic mixed-phase clouds sometimes dissipate due to insufficient aerosol? Evidence from comparisons between observations and idealized simulations

Abstract. Mixed-phase clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic. These clouds can persist for days and dissipate in a matter of hours. It is sometimes unknown what causes this sudden dissipation, but aerosol–cloud interactions may be involved. Arctic aerosol concentrations can be low enough to affect cloud formation and structure, and it has been hypothesized that, in some instances, concentrations can drop below some critical value needed to maintain a cloud. We use observations from a Department of Energy ARM site on the northern slope of Alaska at Oliktok Point (OLI), the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) field campaign in the high Arctic Ocean, and the Integrated Characterisation of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit – Aerosol Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) project at the NSF (National Science Foundation) Summit Station in Greenland (SMT) to identify one case per site where Arctic boundary layer clouds dissipated coincidentally with a decrease in surface aerosol concentrations. These cases are used to initialize idealized large eddy simulations (LESs) in which aerosol concentrations are held constant until, at a specified time, all aerosols are removed instantaneously – effectively creating an extreme case of aerosol-limited dissipation which represents the fastest a cloud could possibly dissipate via this process. These LESs are compared against the observed data to determine whether cases could, potentially, be dissipating due to insufficient aerosol. The OLI case's observed liquid water path (LWP) dissipated faster than its simulation, indicating that other processes are likely the primary drivers of the dissipation. The ASCOS and SMT observed LWP dissipated at similar rates to their respective simulations, suggesting that aerosol-limited dissipation may be occurring in these instances. We also find that the microphysical response to this extreme aerosol forcing depends greatly on the specific case being simulated. Cases with drizzling liquid layers are simulated to dissipate by accelerating precipitation when aerosol is removed while the case with a non-drizzling liquid layer dissipates quickly, possibly glaciating via the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process. The non-drizzling case is also more sensitive to ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations than the drizzling cases. Overall, the simulations suggest that aerosol-limited cloud dissipation in the Arctic is plausible and that there are at least two microphysical pathways by which aerosol-limited dissipation can occur.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameter identifiability of linear dynamical systems

It is assumed that the system matrices of a stationary linear dynamical system were parametrized by a set of unknown parameters. The question considered here is, when can such a set of unknown parameters be identified from the observed data? Conditions for the local identifiability of a parametrization are derived in three situations: (1) when input/output observations are made, (2) when there exists an unknown feedback matrix in the system and (3) when the system is assumed to be driven by white noise and only output observations are made. Also a sufficient condition for global identifiability is derived.

Glover, K.↗

The Nature of the Soft X-ray Emitting Region in the Direction of the North Polar Spur

The spatial structure of the X-ray sky in the direction of the North Polar Spur was examined in two energy bands, the B band (0.10 to 0.18 keV) and the C band (0.15 to 0.28 keV). A model with two emitting regions, one local with unabsorbed emission, and the other more distant with emission partially absorbed by spatially varying amounts was investigated. Using the distribution of atomic hydrogen as a measure of absorbing material, this model was used to predict the flux in the direction of the North Polar Spur. The predicted flux was compared to the data obtained from several sounding rocket flights. The derived flux was found to correlate well with the observed data.

Morrison, J. P.↗

Orbit determination support of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon operational orbit

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/Poseidon) mission is designed to determine the topography of the Earth's sea surface over a 3-year period, beginning shortly after launch in July 1992. TOPEX/Poseidon is a joint venture between the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the French Centre Nationale d'Etudes Spatiales. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon project center. The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) will nominally be used to support the day-to-day orbit determination aspects of the mission. Due to its extensive experience with TDRSS tracking data, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will receive and process TDRSS observational data. To fulfill the scientific goals of the mission, it is necessary to achieve and maintain a very precise orbit. The most stringent accuracy requirements are associated with planning and evaluating orbit maneuvers, which will place the spacecraft in its mission orbit and maintain the required ground track. To determine if the FDF can meet the TOPEX/Poseidon maneuver accuracy requirements, covariance analysis was undertaken with the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS). The covariance analysis addressed many aspects of TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination, including arc length, force models, and other processing options. The most recent analysis has focused on determining the size of the geopotential field necessary to meet the maneuver support requirements. Analysis was undertaken with the full 50 x 50 Goddard Earth Model (GEM) T3 field as well as smaller representations of this model.

Schanzle, A. F.↗

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) for east central Florida which assimilates in-situ and remotely-sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short-ten-n forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle and Eta models. LDIS combines all available data to produce grid analyses of primary variables (wind, temperature, etc.) at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. These analyses of primary variables can be used to compute diagnostic quantities such as vorticity and divergence. This paper demonstrates the utility of LDIS over east central Florida for a warm season case study. The evolution of a significant thunderstorm outflow boundary is depicted through horizontal and vertical cross section plots of wind speed, divergence, and circulation. In combination with a suitable visualization too], LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving mesoscale weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

On-board Science Understanding: NASA Ames' Efforts

In the near future NASA intends to explore various regions of our solar system using robotic devices such as rovers, spacecraft, airplanes, and/or balloons. Such platforms will likely carry imaging devices, and a variety of analytical instruments intended to evaluate the chemical and mineralogical nature of the environment(s) that they encounter. Historically, mission operations have involved: (1) return of scientific data from the craft; (2) evaluation of the data by space scientists; (3) recommendations of the scientists regarding future mission activity; (4) commands for achieving these activities being transmitted to the craft; and (5) the activity being undertaken. This cycle is then repeated for the duration of the mission with command opportunities once or perhaps twice per day. In a rapidly changing environment, such as might be encountered by a rover traversing hundreds of meters a day or a spacecraft encountering an asteroid, this historical cycle is not amenable to rapid long range traverses, discovery of novelty, or rapid response to any unexpected situations. In addition to real-time response issues, the nature of imaging and/or spectroscopic devices are such that tremendous data volumes can be acquired, for example during a traverse. However, such data volumes can rapidly exceed on-board memory capabilities prior to the ability to transmit it to Earth. Additionally, the necessary communication band-widths are restrictive enough so that only a small portion of these data can actually be returned to Earth. Such scenarios clearly require the enabling of some crucial decisions to be made on-board by these robotic explorers. These decisions transcend the electromechanical control, health, and navigation issues associated with robotic operations. Instead they focus upon a long term goal of automating scientific discovery based upon data returned by sensors of the robot craft. Such an approach would eventually enable it to understand what is interesting because the data deviates from expectations generated by current theories/models of planetary processes that could have resulted in the observed data. Such interesting data and/or conclusions can then be selectively transmitted to Earth thus reducing memory and communications demands.

Roush, Ted L.↗

Predicting Operator Execution Times Using CogTool

Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.

Santiago-Espada, Yamira↗

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗

Terra, Aqua, and Aura Direct Broadcast - Providing Earth Science Data for Realtime Applications

The need for realtime data to aid in disaster management and monitoring has been clearly demonstrated for the past several years, e.g., during the tsunami in Indonesia in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, fires, etc. Users want (and often require) the means to get earth observation data for operational regional use as soon as they are generated by satellites. This is especially true for events that can cause loss of human life and/or property. To meet this need, NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites, Terra and Aqua, provide realtime data useful to disaster management teams. This paper describes the satellites, their Direct Broadcast (DB) capabilities, the data uses, what it takes to deploy a DB ground station, and the future of the DB.

Kelly, Angelita C.↗

Enrichment of the Galactic disc with neutron-capture elements: Gd, Dy, and Th

The study of the origin of heavy elements is one of the main goals of nuclear astrophysics. In this paper, we present new observational data for the heavy r-process elements gadolinium (Gd, Z= 64), dysprosium (Dy, Z= 66), and thorium (Th, Z= 90) in a sample of 276 Galactic disc stars (–1.0 < [Fe/H] < + 0.3). The stellar spectra have a high resolution of 42 000 and 75 000, and the signal-to-noise ratio higher than 100. The LTE abundances of Gd, Dy, and Th have been determined by comparing the observed and synthetic spectra for three Gd lines (149 stars), four Dy lines (152 stars), and the Th line at 4019.13 Å (170 stars). For about 70 percent of the stars in our sample, Gd and Dy are measured for the first time, and Th for 95 percent of the stars. Typical errors vary from 0.07 to 0.16 dex. This paper provides the first extended set of Th observations in the Milky Way disc. Here together with europium (Eu, Z= 63) data from our previous studies, we have compared these new observations with nucleosynthesis predictions and Galactic Chemical Evolution simulations. We confirm that [Gd/Fe] and [Dy/Fe] show the same behaviour of Eu. We study with GCE simulations the evolution of [Th/Fe] in comparison with [Eu/Fe], showing that unlike Eu, either the Th production is metallicity dependent in case of a unique source of the r-process in the Galaxy, or the frequency of the Th-rich r-process source is decreasing with the increase in [Fe/H].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine learning and serving of discrete field theories

A method for machine learning and serving of discrete field theories in physics is developed. The learning algorithm trains a discrete field theory from a set of observational data on a spacetime lattice, and the serving algorithm uses the learned discrete field theory to predict new observations of the field for new boundary and initial conditions. The approach of learning discrete field theories overcomes the difficulties associated with learning continuous theories by artificial intelligence. The serving algorithm of discrete field theories belongs to the family of structure-preserving geometric algorithms, which have been proven to be superior to the conventional algorithms based on discretization of differential equations. The effectiveness of the method and algorithms developed is demonstrated using the examples of nonlinear oscillations and the Kepler problem. In particular, the learning algorithm learns a discrete field theory from a set of data of planetary orbits similar to what Kepler inherited from Tycho Brahe in 1601, and the serving algorithm correctly predicts other planetary orbits, including parabolic and hyperbolic escaping orbits, of the solar system without learning or knowing Newton’s laws of motion and universal gravitation. The proposed algorithms are expected to be applicable when the effects of special relativity and general relativity are important.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A learning-based data-driven forecast approach for predicting future reservoir performance

Quantification of the predictive uncertainty of subsurface models has long been investigated. The traditional workflow is to calibrate prior models to match observed data, and then use the posterior models to simulate future system performance. Not only are these procedures computationally expensive, but they also have issues in maintaining geological model constraints during the calibration step. Data space inversion (DSI) was introduced recently to predict future system performance without the iterative history matching or model calibration step. In general, DSI approaches seek to establish a statistical relationship between the observed and forecast variables, as well as to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the forecast variables, by using an ensemble of uncalibrated prior models. Existing DSI approaches all require a number of complex transformation and mapping operations, which may deter their widespread use. Here in this study, we introduce a new and simpler DSI approach, the learning-based, data-driven forecast approach (LDFA), by combining dimension reduction and machine learning techniques to quickly provide accurate forecast results and reliably quantify corresponding uncertainty in the results. Our LDFA framework is demonstrated using two supervised learning algorithms, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), on two representative examples from reservoir engineering and geological carbon storage. Results suggest that our approach provides accurate forecast results (e.g., future oil production rate or cumulative injected CO 2 ) and reasonable predictive uncertainty intervals. Our framework is generic and may be applied to other surface and subsurface problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Methods of sequential estimation for determining initial data in numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.

Cohn, S. E.↗