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System design and analysis of thermal power dispatch systems for boiling water reactors

Nuclear power plants are crucial to meeting net zero emission goals and achieving energy sustainability. Integrating these plants with clean energy technologies such as high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) may improve the efficiency and economic competitiveness of these plants. Here, the current study investigates the design and operation of a thermal power dispatch (TPD) system for coupling boiling water reactors (BWRs) to HTSE plants. The TPD system extracts a portion of the steam from the reactor’s main steam line and transfers its thermal energy to an HTSE plant through a power transport loop. A TPD system for 5 % steam extraction has been designed and the system performance during steady and transient operations has been analyzed. The TPD system dispatched a total of 197 MW thermal energy to the HTSE plant under nominal design conditions. Saturated steam at 7.17 MPa from the BWR plant was condensed and subcooled to a temperature of 168 °C, while a mass flow rate of 91.1 kg/s of superheated steam was dispatched to the HTSE plant. Furthermore, the system performance during transient operation showed a continuous transition from the initial hot standby mode to the nominal power dispatch level. The transient simulation results emphasized the importance of investigating component level performance for the TPD system design. The current results will guide future works on the development of integrated energy systems for hydrogen production or process heat applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Auto Procedure Parsing: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operating procedure is “a set of rules that describes how actions on the plant should be made if a certain system goal should be accomplished. U.S. NPPs use paper-based procedures (PBPs). PBPs are difficult to use. Common errors with PBPs are: following the wrong procedure, omit a step etc. Computer based procedures (CPBs) offer great improvement in ensuring plant safety. Some studies rely on experienced operators to understand the procedure content and then reorganize the procedure with digitally executable capabilities. Other studies utilize the procedure format to design rules to extract information from the operating procedures. Existing studies in procedure parsing are manual, laborious and extract limited information. This study aims to automatically extract critical information from operating procedures for generating computer interpretable representation of procedures. Such representation can further be used for automatic dynamic human reliability analysis and CPB design etc.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Growing crops for space explorers on the moon, Mars, or in space

An option in the long-duration exploration of space, whether on the Moon or Mars or in a spacecraft on its way to Mars or the asteroids, is to utilize a bioregenerative life-support system in addition to the physicochemical systems that will always be necessary. Green plants can use the energy of light to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and add oxygen to it while at the same time synthesizing food for the space travelers. The water that crop plants transpire can be condensed in pure form, contributing to the water purification system. An added bonus is that green plants provide a familiar environment for humans far from their home planet. The down side is that such a bioregenerative life-support system--called a controlled environment life-support system (CELSS) in this paper--must be highly complex and relatively massive to maintain a proper composition of the atmosphere while also providing food. Thus, launch costs will be high. Except for resupply and removal of nonrecycleable substances, such a system is nearly closed with respect to matter but open with respect to energy. Although a CELSS facility is small compared to the Earth's biosphere, it must be large enough to feed humans and provide a suitable atmosphere for them. A functioning CELSS can only be created with the help of today's advanced technology, especially computerized controls. Needed are energy for light, possibly from a nuclear power plant, and equipment to provide a suitable environment for plant growth, including a way to supply plants with the necessary mineral nutrients. All this constitutes the biomass production unit. There must also be food preparation facilities and a means to recycle or dispose of waste materials and there must be control equipment to keep the facility running. Humans are part of the system as well as plants and possibly animals. Human brain power will often be needed to keep the system functional in spite of the best computer-driven controls. The particulars of a CELSS facility depend strongly on where it is to be located. The presence of gravity on the Moon and Mars simplifies the design for a facility on those bodies, but a spacecraft in microgravity is a much more challenging environment. One problem is that plants, which are very sensitive to gravity, might not grow and produce food in the virtual absence of gravity. However, the experience with growing super-dwarf wheat in the Russian space station Mir, while not entirely successful because of the sterile wheat heads, was highly encouraging. The plants grew well for 123 days, producing more biomass than had been produced in space before. This was due to the high photon flux available to the plants and the careful control of substrate moisture. The sterile heads were probably due to the failure to remove the gaseous plant hormone, ethylene, from the Mir atmosphere. Since ethylene can easily be removed, it should be possible to grow wheat and other crops in microgravity with the production of viable seeds. On the ground Biosphere-2 taught us several lessons about the design and construction of a CELSS facility, but Bios-3 came much closer to achieving the goals of such a facility. Although stability was never completely reached, Bios-3 was much more stable than Biosphere-2 apparently because every effort was made to keep the system simple and to use the best technology available to maintain control. Wastes were not recycled in Bios-3 except for urine, and inedible plant materials were incinerated to restore CO2 to the atmosphere. Since much meat (about 20% of calories) was imported, closure in the Bios-3 experiments was well below 100%. But then, a practical CELSS on the Moon might also depend on regular resupply from Earth. Several important lessons have been learned from the CELSS research described in this review.

Review↗

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessment - Three Approaches to A Common Objective

Safety adequacy assessment is central to nuclear power plant (NPP) licensing. Either NPP accident mitigation or prevention can result in adequate safety. Accident prevention, along with the the prevention of accident escalation, can be evaluated using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. Acceptable means to develop principal design criteria (PDCs) via probabilistic methods are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.233 while advanced reactor design criteria are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.232 (RG 1.232). Accident mitigation-based regulatory guidance for non-power reactors is provided in NUREG 1537. While RG 1.232 included class specific guidance for both sodium-cooled fast reactors and modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, it did not provide molten salt reactor (MSR) class specific guidance. Class specific design criteria more closely align with reactors in their class so will require less effort to employ to develop design specific PDCs. The American Nuclear Society has recently released a liquid-fueled MSR design safety standard (ANSI/ANS-20.2-2023) that provides class specific design criteria.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FORCE Integration with DRAFT and IDAES

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to produce multiple commodities and improve economic viability under uncertain market conditions. Technical and economic analysis of IES requires modeling of complex processes with software models having enough fidelity to capture real-world dynamics while still being capable of running using reasonable computing resources. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Recent developments for the FORCE toolset have centered on strengthening the flexibility and modularity to link with external models and other available software to enhance IES simulations. Adding versatility to the FORCE toolset improves capability resulting in better techno-economic simulation of nuclear and IES components (both in potential higher fidelity and accuracy to expected performance after deployment). It also helps leverage existing work in the IES field and improve efficiency in national code development. This report focuses on two such endeavors: integration of the Dynamic Reliability Analysis Framework Tool (DRAFT) and the Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) software packages into FORCE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Comparison of As-loaded Dose Calculations to Measured Dose Rates

Demonstrating that the radiation dose fields surrounding spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation systems meet the applicable limits set forth in 10 CFR 72 for storage and 10 CFR 71 for transportation is essential for the safe handling of radioactive material. The Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation, and Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS) [2] is used to provide realistic estimates of SNF-related safety margins. The UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate analysis approach differs from that used in typical licensing approaches, which use design-basis assemblies with bounding source term characteristics to demonstrate the packaging design complies with the regulations. These bounding licensing approaches can increase the time needed to qualify fuel for loading into dry storage and the time a loaded system must wait prior to transportation. UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate assessments allow quantification of realistic, uncredited safety margins associated with actual fuel loading compared with the regulatory limits. While realistic estimation of the dose field surrounding SNF systems may allow for additional flexibility in operations, it is essential to understand how these predictions compare to measured doses. The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Integrated Waste Management and the Prairie Island Indian Community conducted a transportation dose assessment to estimate the site-specific incident-free radiation doses from shipping SNF by rail from the Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Plant (PINGP) through the Prairie Island Indian Community Reservation and Trust Land [5,6]. For that effort, the dose rates were obtained for 50 TN-40 and TN-40HT systems in storage configurations. This work compares the predicted dose rates from UNF-ST&DARDS as-loaded calculations with dose rates measured from 50 SNF storage systems at PINGP. The remainder of this paper discusses the data obtained for the evaluation, the modeling methods, and the results of the calculations.

spent nuclear fuel (SNF), UNF-ST&DARDS, Validation↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Instrumentation and Control Digital Modernization Research Plan for Long-Term Sustainability in the Nuclear Industry

This report, developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), outlines a comprehensive research plan to support the digital modernization of safety-related instrumentation and control (I&C) systems in the U.S. nuclear industry. The modernization effort is critical to ensuring the long-term safety, reliability, and economic viability of both existing and future nuclear power plants (NPPs), particularly as aging analog systems become increasingly obsolete and difficult to maintain.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High-Level Considerations for Access and Access Controls by Design

Nuclear power plants must be, by design and construction, robust structures and difficult to penetrate. Ideally, for security, the reactors would be sited underground, beneath a massive solid block, too thick to be penetrated by tools or explosives with all communications and power transfer lines also underground and fortified. Limiting access with difficult-to-penetrate physical barriers is going to be key for determining response and staffing requirements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Case Study: Hybridizing Nuclear Energy Systems in the U.S.

This case study was presented at the ICTP-IAEA VIRTUAL Course on Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy Systems: Phenomenology, Research and Development. It provides preliminary results on an analysis of hybridizing the two nuclear power plants owned by Xcel Energy and located in Minnesota. The analysis extends previous analyses that provided only price-taker results. Those assume adjusting the generation sold to the grid does not impact locational marginal electricity prices nor do they estimate impacts on the total net cost to serve the load. This presentation summarizes the new technique that was developed to both optimize the size and operations of the hybridized system and the resulting impacts on the grid when it is operated optimally.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Reliability and Integrity Management Scoping Study

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is developing the regulatory framework and technical expertise to support regulatory review of advanced non-light water reactor (ANLWR) designs. The NRC staff expects most of these designs to use the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) Section XI, Division 2 “Requirements for Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) Programs for Nuclear Power Plants” for developing and implementing pre-service inspection (PSI) and in-service inspection (ISI) programs. The NRC recently endorsed ASME BPVC Section XI, Division 2 (BPV XI-2) in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.246. This new ASME code is yet to be used in any applications submitted for NRC review. This report provides an overview of the current state of knowledge and practices within the industry for the use of BPV XI-2 for the development and implementation of a PSI and ISI program for non-light water reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integration of the Back End of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste consists of three main phases – storage, transportation, and disposal – commonly referred to as the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Current practice for commercial spent nuclear fuel management in the United States (US) includes temporary storage of spent fuel in both pools and dry storage systems at operating or shutdown nuclear power plants. Storage pools are filling to their operational capacity, and management of the approximately 2,200 metric tons of spent fuel newly discharged each year requires transferring older and cooler spent fuel from pools into dry storage. Unless a repository becomes available that can accept spent fuel for permanent disposal, projections indicate that the US will have approximately 136,000 metric tons of spent fuel in dry storage systems by mid-century, when the last plants in the current reactor fleet are decommissioned. Current designs for dry storage systems rely on large multi-assembly canisters, the most common of which are so-called “dual-purpose canisters” (DPCs). DPCs are certified for both storage and transportation, but are not designed or licensed for permanent disposal. The large capacity (greater number of spent fuel assemblies) of these canisters can lead to higher canister temperatures, which can delay transportation and/or complicate disposal. This current management practice, in which the utilities continue loading an ever-increasing inventory of larger DPCs, does not emphasize integration among storage, transportation, and disposal. This lack of integration does not cause safety issues, but it does lead to a suboptimal system that increases costs, complicates storage and transportation operations, and limits options for permanent disposal. This paper describes strategies for improving integration of management practices in the US across the entire back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. The complex interactions between storage, transportation, and disposal make a single optimal solution unlikely. However, efforts to integrate various phases of nuclear waste management can have the greatest impact if they begin promptly and continue to evolve throughout the remaining life of the current fuel cycle. A key factor that influences the path forward for integration of nuclear waste management practices is the identification of the timing and location for a repository. The most cost-effective path forward would be to open a repository by mid-century with the capability to directly dispose of DPCs without repackaging the spent fuel into disposalready canisters. Options that involve repackaging of spent fuel from DPCs into disposalready canisters or that delay the repository opening significantly beyond mid-century could add 10s of billions of dollars to the total system life cycle cost.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Deliberate Motion Analytics Applied to CUAS Sensor Fusion

The Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security (ARSS) program in the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) seeks to identify new technology solutions for safeguards and security challenges associated with domestic deployment of advanced nuclear reactors. Research in the ARSS program is investigating alternative physical protection system (PPS) approaches that leverage new detection technologies. This report shows test results from a new form of artificial intelligence (AI) that is called deliberate motion analytics (DMA) when used to spatially and temporally fuse active radar and passive radio frequency (RF) detection that significantly improves detection of uncrewed aircraft systems (UASs). DMA is designed to filter out false positive alarms yet provide highly reliable intrusion detection at nuclear power plants (NPPs) and advanced small modular reactor (ASMR) perimeters. This form of AI is considered to be an enabling technology for security of the future and supports the ARSS investigation of alternative PPSs.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Evaluation of Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation

A digital twin has intelligent modules that continuously monitor the condition of the individual components and the whole of a system. Digital twins can provide nuclear power plants (NPP) operators an unprecedented level of monitoring, control, supervision, and security by contributing a greater volume of data for more comprehensive data analysis and increased accuracy of insights and predictions for decision making throughout the entire NPP lifecycle. NPP operators and managers have historically relied on limited, second hand or incomplete data. With proper implementation, digital twins can provide a central hub of all intel that allows for a multidisciplinary view of an NPP. This equips operators and managers with the ability to have more information, context, and intel that can be used for greater granularity during planning and decision making. Digital twins can be used in many activities as the technology has many different concepts surrounding it. From the various definitions of a digital twin within the industry, digital twins can be differentiated by levels of integration/automation. The three main models include digital model, digital shadow, and digital twin. Digital twins offer many potential advancements to the nuclear industry that could reduce costs, improve designs, provide safer operation, and improve their overall security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Predicting High Energy Arcing Fault Zones of Influence for Aluminum Using an Arc Flash Modeling Approach: Evaluation of a model bias, uncertainty, parameter sensitivity and zone of influence estimation

This report documents the development of an arc flash hazard model to calculate the incident energy and zone of influence from high energy arcing faults involving aluminum. The NRC has identified the potential for (HEAFs) involving aluminum to increase the damage zone beyond what is currently postulated in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies. To estimate the hazard from HEAFs involving aluminum an arc flash model was developed. Differences between the initial model and nuclear power plant (NPP) fire PRA scenarios were identified. Modification of the initial model established from existing literature and test data was used to minimize these differences. The developed model was evaluated against NRC datasets to understand the model prediction and relative uncertainties. Finally, a range of fire PRA zone of influences (ZOI) were developed based on the developed model, target fragility estimates and update HEAF PRA methodology. The results were developed to support an NRC LIC-504 evaluation in tandem with other modeling efforts. The report documents the effort and provides a reference for any future advancements in arc flash modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗