Defining Radiation Belt Enhancement Events Based on Probability Distributions
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Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model
The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.
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Magnetopause Reconnection and Indents Induced by Foreshock Turbulence
Abstract Based on global hybrid simulation results, we predict that foreshock turbulence can reach the magnetopause and lead to reconnection as well as Earth‐sized indents. Both the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind are constant in our simulation, and hence, all dynamics are generated by foreshock instabilities. The IMF in the simulation is mostly Sun‐Earth aligned with a weak northward and zero dawn‐dusk component, such that subsolar magnetopause reconnection is not expected without foreshock turbulence modifying the magnetosheath fields. We show a reconnection example to illustrate that the turbulence can create large magnetic shear angles across the magnetopause to induce local bursty reconnection. Magnetopause reconnection and indents developed from the impact of foreshock turbulence can potentially contribute to dayside loss of planetary plasmas.
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Origin of Electron Boomerang Stripes: Statistical Study
In the outer radiation belt, localized ultralow frequency (ULF) waves can interact with energetic electrons by drift resonance, leading to quasiperiodic oscillations. The oscillations in the pitch angle spectrum can be characterized by either boomerang-shaped or straight stripes. Previous studies have shown that boomerang-shaped stripes evolve from straight ones when electrons drift away from the localized wave interaction region. Based on the time-of-flight technique on the pitch angle-dependent drift velocity, the origin can be remotely identified from the pitch angle dispersion. Here, we report 27 straight stripe events and 86 boomerang-shaped events observed by Van Allen Probes from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017. Statistical study shows a good coincidence between the locations of straight ones and traceback regions from boomerang-shaped ones. These locations, mainly located in noon-to-dusk region, coincide well with the plasmaspheric plumes. Thus, localized ULF waves trapped in the plume may result in the preference of localized ULF wave-electron interactions at noon-to-dusk region.
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Effects of EMIC Wave-Driven Proton Precipitation on the Ionosphere
In this report we investigate the proton precipitation caused by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves and its impact on the ionosphere with the self-consistent ring current-atmosphere interactions model (RAM-SCBE) coupled with an ionospheric particle transport model Global Airglow (GLOW). The EMIC wave diffusion process causes significant precipitation of tens of keV protons, particularly in the afternoon to midnight sector. These precipitating energetic protons further impact the ionosphere-thermosphere and contribute to the ionization in the E/F regions. The integrated auroral conductance is significantly enhanced in the dusk-to-midnight sector. Although the EMIC waves do not directly interact with the ring current electrons, after the EMIC wave scattering included in the model, remarkable changes are found in the global distribution of precipitating electron flux. This means that the addition of proton precipitation driven by EMIC waves results in feedback effects on the ring current electron dynamics through the circulation system. Validation is also conducted by comparing the simulated precipitation flux and ionospheric electron density with observations.
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PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-Relativistic Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt
Energetic electrons inside Earth's Van Allen belts pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics that often play vital roles in modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest, and thus forecasting these ≥2 MeV electrons has a significant meaning to all space sectors. Here, we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)-2E, forecasts ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer belt, with no need for in situ measurements of the trapped MeV electron population except at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earthorbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind speeds and densities from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model outperforms individual models at most L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model can provide 25-h (~1-day) and 50-h (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency and correlation values. Our results also suggest that this new model is dominated by nonlinear components at L-shells <~4 for ultra-relativistic electrons, different from the dominance of linear components for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.
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2D Reconstruction of Magnetotail Electron Diffusion Region Measured by MMS
Models for collisionless magnetic reconnection in near-Earth space are distinctly characterized as 2D or 3D. In 2D kinetic models, the frozen-in law for the electron fluid is usually broken by laminar dynamics involving structures set by the electron orbit size, while in 3D models the width of the electron diffusion region is broadened by turbulent effects. We present an analysis of in situ spacecraft observations from the Earth's magnetotail of a fortuitous encounter with an active reconnection region, mapping the observations onto a 2D spatial domain. While the event likely was perturbed by low-frequency 3D dynamics, the structure of the electron diffusion region remains consistent with results from a 2D kinetic simulation. As such, the event represents a unique validation of 2D kinetic, and laminar reconnection models.
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Inner Belt Electron Decay Timescales: A Comparison of Van Allen Probes and DREAM3D Losses Following the June 2015 Storm
Abstract NASA's Van Allen Probes observed significant, long‐lived fluxes of inner belt electrons up to ∼1 MeV after geomagnetic storms in March and June 2015. Reanalysis of Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) data with improved background correction showed a clearer picture of the relativistic electron population that persisted through 2016 and into 2017 above the Fennell et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062874 ) limit. The intensity and duration of these enhancements allow estimation of decay timescales for comparison with simulated decay rates and theoretical lifetimes. We compare decay timescales from these data and DREAM3D simulations based on them using geomagnetic activity‐dependent pitch angle diffusion coefficients derived from plasmapause‐indexed wave data (Malaspina et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069982 , 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078564 ) and phase space densities derived from MagEIS observations. Simulated decay rates match observed decay rates more closely than the theoretical lifetime due to significantly nonequilibrium pitch angle distributions in simulation and data. We conclude that nonequilibrium effects, rather than a missing diffusion or loss process, account for observed short decay rates.
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Contributions to Loss Across the Magnetopause During an Electron Dropout Event
Abstract Dropout events are dramatic decreases in radiation belt electron populations that can occur in as little as 30 minutes. Loss to magnetopause due to a combination of magnetopause shadowing and outward radial transport plays a significant role in these events. We examine the dropout of relativistic electron populations during the October 2012 geomagnetic storm using simulated electron phase space density, evaluating the contribution of different processes to losses across the magnetopause. We compare loss contribution from outward transport calculated using a standard empirical radial diffusion model that assumes a dipolar geomagnetic field to an event‐specific radial diffusion model evaluated with a non‐dipolar geomagnetic field. We additionally evaluate the contribution of Shabansky type 1 particles, which bounce along magnetic field lines with local equatorial maxima, to the loss calculated during this event. We find that the empirical radial diffusion model with a dipolar background field underestimates the contribution of radial diffusion to this dropout event by up to 10% when compared to the event‐specific, non‐dipolar radial diffusion model. We additionally find that including Shabansky type 1 particles in the initial electron phase space density, that is, allowing some magnetic field lines distorted from the typical single‐minima configuration in drift shell construction, increases the calculated loss by an average of 0.75%. This shows that the treatment of the geomagnetic field significantly impacts the calculation of electron losses to the magnetopause during dropout events, with the non‐dipolar treatment of radial diffusion being essential to accurately quantify the loss of outer radiation belt populations.
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Hybrid Simulation of Proton Cyclotron Waves Upstream of Mars Generated by Pickup Ion Beam Distribution
Linear instability analysis as well as a corresponding two‐dimensional hybrid simulation are performed to examine the excitation of the proton cyclotron waves observed upstream of Mars. The waves are believed to be excited by the pickup ions produced from the ionization of the Martian hydrogen exosphere. And previous statistical analysis of wave observations suggested that the waves are mostly related to pickup ion beam velocity distributions. While earlier linear instability analysis of pickup ion beam distributions has mainly been focused on the parallel unstable modes, our analysis reveals that the maximum growth rate occurs at very oblique propagation. The corresponding hybrid simulation confirms the linear analysis results and further demonstrates that the pickup ions are scattered toward an isotropic shell velocity distribution by the waves excited. Interestingly, the waves at oblique propagation gradually damp out and the system is eventually dominated by waves of quasi‐parallel propagation.
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Does Magnetic Reconnection Occur in the Near Lunar Surface Environment?
The near lunar surface contains small-scale magnetic field structures that provide a natural test bed for observing plasmas with a non-zero Hall electric field, as well as potentially facilitating electron-only reconnection. This study presents observational evidence of magnetized electrons as well as demagnetized ions when THEMIS-ARTEMIS probe B reached an altitude of ~15 km above the lunar surface. Additionally, observations suggest the presence of a field line topology change and traversal of a closed magnetic field structure containing solar wind electrons, suggestive of magnetic reconnection having occurred at some point between the solar wind interplanetary magnetic field and a lunar crustal magnetic field. Thus, the observations presented here are consistent with previous studies that predict prominent Hall electric fields near lunar crustal magnetic fields and further suggest that the solar wind interplanetary magnetic field may reconnect with lunar crustal magnetic fields, most likely via electron-only reconnection.
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Resolution of a Few Problems in the Application of Quasilinear Theory to Calculating Diffusion Coefficients in Heliophysics
A theory of quasilinear diffusion for obliquely propagating electromagnetic waves was developed in the 1960's and applied in the 1970's to model scattering of relativistic electrons by a prescribed distribution of waves. In the latter work, a transformation of variables, from wavevector space to the temporal frequency and tangent of the wave normal angle, was used so that simple Gaussian functions of frequency and tangent of the wave normal angle could be multiplied together to define the distribution of wave power, although arbitrary distributions of power in these two variables is also permitted. Finally, in 2005, previous work was consolidated and has been widely used in heliophysics studies that require computation of quasilinear diffusion coefficients. Here it is shown that this transformation is inppropriate when the precise wave vector distribution is known. The correct transformation is derived and used to produce diffusion coefficients that can differ by orders of magnitude from those computed using the inappropriate transformation. The differences are largest when the distribution of wave power extends to wave normal angles near the resonance cone. When the ratio of the plasma frequency to the gyrofrequency is large, only low energies (keV) are affected, but as the ratio decreases higher energies (MeV) also show differences. It is also shown that the derivation from the 1960's uses a notation that results in the diffusion coefficients depending on the distribution of wave power with respect to the wave azimuthal angle whereas there should be no such dependence.
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New Space Companies Meet a “Normal” Solar Maximum
The monthly mean sunspot number has been larger in June–July 2023 than the double peak of solar cycle 24 (146 in February 2014 and 139 in November 2011) and brings us back to the sunspot level of solar cycle 23. However, the number of rocket launches, satellites in orbit and private space companies has increased dramatically in the past 20 years. Additionally, there is a growing interest for space exploration beyond Earth's orbit, to the Moon and beyond, which comes with higher risk of being affected by space weather. Here, we discuss some of these trends and the role of the journal to improve awareness of space weather impacts.
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Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux
Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.
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RAM-SCB Runs on Request at CCMC
The Ring current–Atmosphere interactions Model (RAM) with Self-Consistent magnetic (B) field (SCB) combines a large-scale kinetic model of ring current plasma with a three-dimensional (3-D) force-balanced model of the terrestrial magnetic field. RAM-SCB simulates the evolution of major ion species (H + , O + , and He + by default) and electrons as a function of azimuth, radial distance, energy, and pitch angle. Simulation outputs include the Dst index, and pressure and differential flux of the modeled species, thus providing benefit as a science code and to inform surface charging hazard within the model domain. Version 2.2 of this open-source simulation code has now—as of 8 August 2023—been made available for Runs-On-Request via the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.
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Space Weather in the Popular Media, and the Opportunities the Upcoming Solar Maximum Brings
The media interest/coverage of space weather has been increasing as we approach solar maximum and the private space industry has grown significantly since the last significant solar maximum in 2000–2002. It is not uncommon for space weather media coverage to use hyperbole with frequent references to the infamous “Carrington event.” The implications of associating each of the many upcoming moderate-to-severe storms with the Carrington event are discussed, and we encourage the curbing of hyperbole whenever possible. While there is an excellent but small cohort of space weather researchers actively engaging with the media, we urge more (particularly early-to-mid career) to take advantage of media training resources and to join in. We also call for these efforts to be broadly supported by peers and institutions for the benefit of space weather as a discipline.
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Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification
We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.
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Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations
Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.
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