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DOE OSTI2021

Acceleration of Oxygen Ions In Dipolarization Events: 2. PSBL Distributions

Abstract This paper represents the second part of an investigation of the acceleration of energetic oxygen ions from encounters with a dipolarization front (DF), based on test particle tracing in the fields of an MHD simulation. In this paper, we focus on distributions in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). O + beams close to the plasma sheet boundary are found to be less pronounced and/or delayed against the H + beams. The reason is that these particles are accelerated by nonadiabatic motion in the duskward electric field such that O + ions gain the same amount of energy, but only 1/4 of the speed of protons. This causes a delay and larger equatorward displacement by the E × B drift. In contrast, the O + beams somewhat deeper inside the plasma sheet, where previously multiple proton beams were found, are accelerated at an earthward propagating DF just like H + , forming a field‐aligned beam at a similar speed as the lowest‐energy H + beam. We found that the source location depends on the adiabaticity of the orbit. For larger adiabaticity, the beam ions originate initially from the outer plasma sheet, but later from the opposite PSBL or lobe, but for low adiabaticity, sources are well inside the plasma sheet. The energy gained from a single encounter of a DF is comparable to the kinetic energy associated with the front speed. Assuming maximum speeds of 500–1,000 km/s, this yields a mass dependent acceleration of about 1–5 keV for protons and 20–80 keV for oxygen ions, independent of their charge state.

Birn, J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Testing the efficacy of active pressure management as a tool to mitigate induced seismicity

Manipulation of subsurface stresses through fluid injection/extraction may induce seismicity through modulation of overpressure along faults. Globally, most industrial operations do not induce significant earthquakes. However, the possibility of inducing moderate to large earthquakes is recognized as a significant risk for basin-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage operations (Niass et al., 2017). One possible method to reduce the occurrence of induced seismicity is to maintain only small (or zero) fluid overpressure changes in the subsurface through extraction of formation brine. For active pressure management (APM), operators may employ different procedures including extraction of various brine volumes and different configurations of injection/extraction well locations. However, the impact each these operational procedures on induced seismicity must be understood in order to develop management strategies. Here, we describe a numerical modeling workflow to evaluate the efficacy of APM techniques, that when applied to a specific site may be used to inform operational management strategies. We couple the multiphase reservoir model, NUFT, with the earthquake simulator, RSQSim and simulate seismicity induced by CO 2 injection into a hypothetical brine saturated reservoir. Reservoir overpressure is modified by co-extraction of brine at various fractions of the injected CO 2 volume from five potential wells. Our goal is to understand how the well-pair configuration and the extracted brine volume impact the total number and the maximum event magnitude. Additionally, the performance of each scenario is also evaluated in terms of the volume of CO 2 that can be stored before an earthquake above a tolerance threshold is induced.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Three-Flavor Neutrino Oscillations at NOvA

NOvA, is a two-detector, long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermilab, Batavia, IL, USA. It is designed primarily to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters such as the atmospheric mass squared splitting, $\Delta m^2_{32}$, the mixing angle, $\theta_{23}$, neutrino mass hierachy, and the CP-violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$, using $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance data. NOvA receives a high purity 900 KW instense beam of neutrinos and anti-neutrinos from Fermilab's Neutrinos at Main Injector (NuMI) beamline. NOvA used functionally identical finely granulated liquid scintillation detectors, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The NOvA near detector observes un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and beam $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events, while the far detector, which is situated 809 km away from the near detector, records un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and oscillated $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events. We will discuss the neutrino oscillation analysis strategy at NOvA and the latest three-flavor oscillation results from 10 years of NOvA data in this talk.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Short GRB Host Galaxies. I. Photometric and Spectroscopic Catalogs, Host Associations, and Galactocentric Offsets

We present a comprehensive optical and near-infrared census of the fields of 90 short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) discovered in 2005–2021, constituting all short GRBs for which host galaxy associations are feasible (≈60% of the total Swift short GRB population). We contribute 274 new multi-band imaging observations across 58 distinct GRBs and 26 spectra of their host galaxies. Supplemented by literature and archival survey data, the catalog contains 542 photometric and 42 spectroscopic data sets. The photometric catalog reaches 3σ depths of ≳24–27 mag and ≳23–26 mag for the optical and near-infrared bands, respectively. We identify host galaxies for 84 bursts, in which the most robust associations make up 56% (50/90) of events, while only a small fraction, 6.7%, have inconclusive host associations. Based on new spectroscopy, we determine 18 host spectroscopic redshifts with a range of z ≈ 0.15–1.5 and find that ≈23%–41% of Swift short GRBs originate from z > 1. We also present the galactocentric offset catalog for 84 short GRBs. Taking into account the large range of individual measurement uncertainties, we find a median of projected offset of ≈7.7 kpc, for which the bursts with the most robust associations have a smaller median of ≈4.8 kpc. Our catalog captures more high-redshift and low-luminosity hosts, and more highly offset bursts than previously found, thereby diversifying the population of known short GRB hosts and properties. In terms of locations and host luminosities, the populations of short GRBs with and without detectable extended emission are statistically indistinguishable. This suggests that they arise from the same progenitors, or from multiple progenitors, which form and evolve in similar environments. All of the data products are available on the Broadband Repository for Investigating Gamma-Ray Burst Host Traits website.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weather effects on the lifecycle of U.S. Department of Defense equipment replacement (WELDER)

Extreme weather has a direct and significant impact on buildings and infrastructure, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. This problem continues to grow as climate patterns change and buildings are exposed to new and different hazards than what they were designed to withstand. In order to better plan for the long-range sustainment, restoration, modernization, and eventual recapitalization of these buildings, organizations with large building portfolios, such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), must have an awareness of the risks that these extreme weather events present. This research aimed to develop an approach to estimate condition loss and reduction in service life for the components of a building due to extreme weather hazards, to understand the risks that may be present in certain buildings and building systems. To achieve this objective, a damage association matrix was developed that categorizes climate hazards, the damage modes that they produce, and the individual component types impacted. This damage matrix formally links state-of-the-art climate model output, which provides projections of the probability of various climate hazards with a damage effects model that quantifies the consequence on component-level condition and service life. This method is applied to an actual portfolio of buildings in a particular geographic location and with a pre-defined component inventory that comprises the building. This approach can be aggregated to the system-, facility-, and site-level thus helping support billions of dollars in recapitalization decisions related to restoration/modernization of facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identifying microstructures susceptible to pulverization in commercially irradiated high burnup UO2 under LOCA conditions

High burnup fuel fragmentation (HBFF) has been a concern in the nuclear industry for many years. When UO2 reaches and exceeds pellet average burnups around 55 GWd/tU, microstructural changes in the fuel pellet begin to occur that render the pellet susceptible to fine fragmentation under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. During a LOCA event, the cladding balloons and bursts, potentially releasing part of these fine fuel fragments into the reactor pressure vessel. This process is known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Presently, the US nuclear industry is developing a safety basis for FFRD with the goal of increasing burnups and pressurized water reactor cycle lengths. Increased cycle lengths would push the burnup limits of the fuel rods past the known threshold for HBFF susceptibility. In this work, the microstructural impact on HBFF was investigated by comparing the microstructures of as-irradiated rod segments to their post-LOCA tested counterparts. This investigation found that varied operational histories result in different microstructural evolutions across the pellet radius, which impacts the fragmentation behavior and radial location of the fragmentation. It is noted that regions with a high bubble density and a high density of grain boundaries fragment under LOCA-relevant conditions. In addition to the fragmentation that has been previously reported at the periphery of the fuel, fragmentation was also noted in the dark zone toward the fuel center. Analysis of the power histories of the fuel samples suggests that the dark zone forms in the central regions of the pellet between temperatures of approximately 740 and 960 °C.

McKinney, Casey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335383614)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toroidal phase of post-disruption runaway electron loss to wall in presence of applied 3-D fields in DIII-D

The toroidal distribution of runaway electrons (REs) striking the centre post in DIII-D post-disruption RE final loss events is simulated utilizing the MARS-F code combined with the REORBIT module, by tracing the guiding-centre drift orbits of test REs in the presence of external (applied) plus internal (intrinsic instability) 3-D fields. To better recover the experimental results, three different equilibria with different safety factor profiles are adopted. Dominant resistive magnetohydrodynamic instabilities are found to be m/n=2/1, 3/2 and 1/1 modes (where m and n are the poloidal and toroidal mode numbers). Externally applied n=1 resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs), with both even and odd parity configuration, are considered in each equilibrium. Locking of MHD instability to the applied RMPs is simulated by minimizing the total perturbed magnetic energy in the plasma. Here, the simulated toroidal locations, where most REs strike in the presence of an edge m/n= 2/1 instability and the n=1 RMPs in even parity, are found to agree well with experiments. Modeling also captures the measured n = 2 RE loss pattern on the wall for experiments where an edge m/n=3/2 instability is dominant instead of the m/n=2/1 mode. The key overall findings include (a) the measured global RE toroidal impact pattern in experiments can be explained by a locked resistive kink instability, (b) the toroidal phase of the locked mode is well predicted by minimizing the total perturbed magnetic energy, and (c) this edge locked mode determines the toroidal phase of the peak RE wall impact.

Bai, Xue [University of California San Diego, La J↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for Heavy Neutral Leptons at the MINER$\nu$A detector

Heavy Neutral Leptons (HNL) are particles hypothesised to provide a mass generation mechanism for the active (observed) neutrino species, which are known to have nonzero mass from the definitive observation of neutrino oscillations. HNL are eigenstates of mass of the order $\mathcal{O}(0.1 − 1\,\,\mathrm{GeV}/c^{2})$, which mix into the active flavour eigenstates through the extended leptonic mixing matrix. Apart from neutrino mass, they could provide a natural dark matter candidate and a mechanism for matter-antimatter asymmetry in the early Universe, giving rise to today’s matter-dominated cosmos. Searches for HNL typically attempt to either confirm the existence of HNL through an excess in data that is most compatible with an HNL hypothesis, or by setting limits on the HNL parameter space $\left(M_{N4}, \left|U_{\alpha 4}\right|^{2}\right)$ in the case of statistically insignificant excess. Such searches are intensifying as part of a global research programme at both colliders and accelerator / atmospheric neutrino experiments. One such setting is the MINER$\nu$A experiment, located in the NuMI beamline at Fermilab. MINER$\nu$A has collected a large amount of data over seven years of operation to measure the cross-sections of neutrino-nucleus interactions necessary to drive systematic uncertainties down, in order for neutrino oscillation experiments to achieve sensitivity to CP violation in the neutrino sector. With the high-energy, high-intensity NuMI beam, and with good timing, position, and angular resolution leading to sensitivity to HNL decays, MINER$\nu$A is fertile ground for an HNL search, which is performed in this thesis. Specifically, a novel, experiment-agnostic and general simulation of HNL production and decay is presented and deployed; this simulation has been incorporated in the ubiquitous GENIE neutrino event generator for use with neutrino experiments in the future. The event selection and background characterisation is discussed in detail, including the primary background coming from charged-current coherent and diffractive pion production from neutrino-nucleus interactions, and constraints on the background using control regions from MINER$\nu$A data are derived. Finally, by means of a fake-data study given a background of $\mathcal{O}(500)$ events, the discovery potential and limit-setting capacity of MINER$\nu$A is demonstrated, and ways to improve this capacity are expounded upon.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging automotive fuel cells can supply zero-emission peak power in the near-term

An increasingly decarbonized yet resilient power grid requires the corresponding build-out of dispatchable zero-emission resources to supply peak power. However, there is a recognized dearth of solutions which can serve multi-day peak demand events both cost-effectively and with near-term deployability. Here, we find that pairing low-cost automotive fuel cells with hydrogen storage in salt caverns can serve as a peaker plant at less than 500 US$/kW at present, a fraction of the cost of conventional fossil fuel-fired peakers. We demonstrate the peaker’s value for long duration storage by comparing it with pumped hydro and assessing its profitability within Texas’ energy-only market region. Although deployment of these peakers is constrained by the presence of salt caverns, we show that a number of sites in the United States and Europe are endowed with suitable salt formations, while utilizing hydrogen storage in pressurized containers could form a location-agnostic peak power solution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Water film-driven Mn (oxy)(hydr)oxide nanocoating growth on rhodochrosite

Minerals exposed to moist air stabilize thin water films that drive a score of chemical reactions of great importance to water-unsaturated terrestrial environments. In this study, we identified Mn (oxy)(hydr)oxide nanocoatings formed by the dissolution, oxidation and precipitation of Mn in oxygenated water films grown on rhodochrosite (MnCO 3 ) microparticles. Nanocoatings that could be identified by vibrational spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and (scanning and transmission) electron microscopy formed in water films containing the equivalent of at least 7 monolayers (~84 H 2 O/nm 2 ). These films were formed by exposing microparticles to moist air with at least 50% relative humidity (RH). Films of neutral pH reacted up to 14% of the Mn II located in the topmost ~5 nm region of the microparticles in atmospheres of up to 90% RH for 7 d. These reactions produced MnOOH, birnessite (MnO 2 ) and hausmannite (Mn 3 O 4 ) nanoparticles of low crystallinity, while exposure to atmospheric air for 1 yr. converted only 2% of Mn II in this region to MnOOH. In contrast, reactions in alkaline water films converted up to ~75% of the Mn II but only after 16 d of reaction. These films produced MnOOH and MnO 2 of low crystallinity, as well as crystalline hausmannite. Kinetic modeling of the time-resolved growth of the Mnsingle bondO stretching vibrational bands of these nanocoatings revealed two concurrent reaction processes. A 1 rst -order process was assigned to nucleation events terminating only after a few hours, and a 0-order process was assigned to the sustained growth of nanocoatings from these nuclei over longer reaction time. By identifying nanocoatings formed by water film-driven reactions on rhodochrosite, our study adds new insight into mineralogical transformations relevant to anoxic–oxic boundaries in water-unsaturated environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Major to trace element imaging and analysis of iron age glasses using stage scanning in the analytical dual beam microscope (tandem)

Dark and clear silicate glasses formed during an iron age vitrification event ≈ 1500 years ago at the Broborg hillfort near Uppsala, Sweden have been analyzed using a scanning electron microscope equipped with a micro-X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) spectrometer. Correlated µXRF and electron beam-induced energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS) X-ray maps were collected via stage-scanning at constant velocity. This coupled procedure represents a new approach for the cultural heritage community to conduct analytical studies of archaeometric specimens composed of metal, ceramic, or mixed inorganic/organic materials, where major and trace element compositions are registered in space for areas up to the centimeter-length scale at micrometer-scale resolution. Overview images were used to select areas for EDS beam scan maps correlated with multispectral cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging and co-located quantitative EDS and μXRF point analysis. Fe, Ca, Mg, Ti, P, Mn, Zr, Zn, and Y are enriched in the dark glass, while Si, Al, K, Na, Ba, Sr, Rb, and Ga are enriched in the clear glass. Unmelted material is comprised predominately of quartz (SiO 2 ) along with trace apatite (Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 [Cl,OH]) and zircon (ZrSiO 4 ). Multivariate statistical analysis was used to measure the area fractions of high variance components while lower variance components represented phase mixtures. Differences between calculated melt viscosities for the glass compositions are consistent with field and laboratory observations. Coupled large area EDS and μXRF imaging shows significant promise for informed selection of higher spatial resolution and higher sensitivity follow-up studies, e.g., those performed using synchrotron analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time, Simultaneous Soil Water Content and Meteorological Data Measurement to Support TRACER over Harris County, Texas (Field Campaign Report: Part I)

The main purpose of this project was to provide ground-truth and satellite-based soil water content data in the Houston, Texas, area to support the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s 2022 field campaign, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). This involved installing four soil monitoring stations at different locations in the Houston area, two of which were part of the ARM facility and two were ancillary. The two stations associated directly with ARM were installed alongside other facilities managed and maintained by the TRACER research team during the intensive operational period (IOP), one located at the La Porte, Texas airport and the other near Guy, Texas. Data from these stations were assimilated with similar data collected by the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) to improve the spatial coverage of the real-time monitoring network. The ground-truth data were compared to the satellite-based (National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]’s Soil Moisture Active Passive [SMAP] mission) data in the TRACER area of interest, and analyzed further to nowcast gridded data over the Houston area. The nowcasted, gridded data product was made available to TRACER researchers for use in climate and land-atmosphere interaction modeling that can help understand formation and persistence of convective storms in dense urban areas, and predict possible environmental events such as floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In very-long baseline interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of a large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show how these trivial closure phases become nonzero with a brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, which is consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of sampling scale: A comparison of methods for estimating external contaminant exposure in free-ranging wildlife

The impacts of contaminants on wildlife are dose dependent, and thus being able to track or predict exposure following contamination events is important for monitoring ecosystem health. However, the ability to track exposure in free-ranging wildlife is often severely limited. Consequently, researchers have predominantly relied on simple methods for estimating contaminant exposures in wildlife with little regard for spatial contaminant heterogeneity or an animal’s use of diverse habitats. We evaluated the influence sampling scale (i.e., how finely contaminant distribution and organism’s spatial use of the landscape is mapped) has on (1) realism and (2) conservativeness of exposure estimates. To do this, we monitored the actual exposure of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Fukushima, Japan to radioactive contamination using GPS27 coupled contaminant monitors placed on individual animals. We compared empirical exposures to estimates generated by combining varying amounts of information about an individual boar’s location and/or movement, with the distribution of contamination on the landscape. Here we found that the most realistic exposure estimates were produced when finer-scale contaminant distribution surveys (e.g., airborne surveys) were combined with more accurate estimates of an individual’s space use (e.g., home ranges or core areas). Importantly, estimates of exposure based on single point surveys at a trap site (a simple method commonly used in the literature), did not correlate with actual exposure rates, suggesting dose-effects studies using this method may result in spurious conclusions. These results suggest that researchers seeking realistic estimates of exposure, such as in dose-effect studies, should ensure they have adequately accounted for fine-scale contaminant distribution patterns and areas of higher use by study organisms. However, conservative estimates of exposure i.e., intentionally over-predicting exposure as is done in initial tiers of ecological risk analyses) were not as scale sensitive and could be achieved with a single known location and coarse contaminant distribution maps.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Canopy responses of Swedish primary and secondary forests to the 2018 drought

Boreal forest ecosystems are predicted to experience more frequent summer droughts due to climate change, posing a threat to future forest health and carbon sequestration. Forestry is a regionally dominant land use where the managed secondary forests are typically even-aged forests with low structural and tree species diversity. It is not well known if managed secondary forests and unmanaged primary forests respond to drought differently in part because the location of primary, unmanaged, forests has remained largely unknown. Here we employed a unique map detailing over 300 primary forests in Sweden. We studied impacts of the 2018 nationwide drought by extracting and analyzing a high-resolution remote sensing vegetation index over the primary forests and over buffer zones around the primary forests representing secondary forests. We controlled for topographical variations linked to soil moisture, which was a strong determinant of drought responses, and analyzed Landsat-derived EVI2 anomalies during the drought year from a multiyear non-drought baseline. We found that primary forests were less affected by the drought compared to secondary forests. Our results indicate that forestry may exacerbate the impact of drought in a future climate with more frequent and extreme hydroclimatic events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Approaches to Predicting Induced Seismicity and Imaging Geothermal Reservoir Properties

This project developed machine learning (ML) methods, lab data sets, and field data to advance geothermal exploration and geothermal energy production. The work had three focus areas. One involved the development of ML methods to use microearthquakes (MEQs) for imaging geothermal reservoir properties and improving subsurface characterization – most importantly the evolution of permeability within the evolving reservoir. This part of the work included development of ML approaches for automated MEQ location, focal mechanism determination and identification of earthquake precursors. The second area focused on using MEQ signals generated by geothermal exploration and production to predict the relationship between fluid injection and seismicity. Here, we extended to reservoir scale our success in using ML to predict laboratory earthquakes and fault zone stress state. The third focus area was on lab experiments. Here, we developed new ML models for lab earthquake prediction and identification of precursors to failure to improve earthquake forecasting and early warning in geothermal settings. Major outcomes of our work include ML models that learn from MEQ signals during geothermal exploration and production to predict induced seismicity. MEQs occur naturally in connection with drilling and energy production. We developed ML methods to use the seismic waves from these events to characterize the elastic, hydraulic and poromechanical properties of reservoirs. Our work illuminated fracture geometry and the evolution of fracture permeability by incorporating seismic coda wave analysis and ML methods to relate fluid injection and seismicity. We significantly expanded laboratory earthquake prediction to include methods that use both passive measurements of microearthquakes within the lab fault zones and also active source acoustic measurements of fault zone elastic properties. These methods can now predict fault zone stress state, time to failure and the magnitude of lab earthquakes. Our work showed that repetitive stick- slip failure events during frictional sliding (the lab equivalent of earthquakes) are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate energy in a manner that foretells unstable failure – manifest as laboratory MEQs. We documented a mapping between fracture properties and statistical attributes of elastic radiation. We extended existing works to geothermal reservoir scale and developed ML methods to determine reservoir permeability, fracture properties, and their evolution during geothermal energy production. An attractive feature of ML algorithms is their ability to handle big datasets and reveal patterns and correlations that may remain invisible to conventional analyses. Our work connected data from field, laboratory and intermediate scales to study permeability, stress, strength, fracture stiffness and geometry. At the field scale we used data from the Newberry Volcano field site, UtahFORGE, EGS Collab, and also the Bedretto underground research lab in Switzerland. These data sets are bridging the gap between the lab scale, theory, and reservoir scale. Our work produced plain language summaries to improve public understanding of DOE research. We also developed openly distributed ML and seismicity datasets for use by all researchers and we published connections between induced seismicity in geothermal areas and reservoir properties including permeability, fracture properties, and stress state. Our models are designed for the large data sets of induced seismicity typically associated with geothermal sites. We produced labeled event catalogs and used them on geothermal data to assess how ML can facilitate geothermal production and exploration. All datasets are available on the GDR Productivity: The project produced 32 publications in peer reviewed journals (two are in review). It supported the work of 6 PhD students, 40 conference presentations, 6 keynote talks at national meetings, and mentoring and professional development for 4 postdoctoral fellows.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous Observation of Two Isolated Proton Auroras at Subauroral Latitudes by a Highly Sensitive All-Sky Camera and Van Allen Probes

Isolated proton auroras (IPAs) appearing at subauroral latitudes are generated by energetic protons precipitating from the magnetosphere through interaction with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves. An IPA thus indicates the spatial scale and temporal variation of wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere. In this study, a unique event of simultaneous ground and magnetospheric satellite observations of two IPAs were conducted on March 16, 2015, using an all-sky imager at Athabasca, Canada and Van Allen Probes. The Van Allen Probes observed two isolated EMIC waves with frequencies of ~1 and 0.4 Hz at L ≈ 5.0 when the satellite footprint crossed over the two IPAs. This suggests that the IPAs were caused by localized EMIC waves. Proton flux at 5–20 keV increased locally when the EMIC waves appeared. Electron flux at energies below ~500 eV also increased. Temperature anisotropy of the energetic protons was estimated at 1.5–2.5 over a wide L-value range of 3.0–5.2. Electron density gradually decreased from L = 3.5 to 5.4, suggesting that the EMIC wave at L ≈ 5.0 was located in the gradual plasmapause. From these observations, we conclude that the localized IPAs and associated EMIC waves took place because of localized enhancement of energetic proton flux and plasma density structure near the plasmapause. Furthermore, the magnetic field observed by the satellite showed small variation during the wave observation, indicating that the IPAs were accompanied by the weak field-aligned current.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗