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At least 973 records · Page 54

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NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

NASA NTRS2017

New Understanding of Hubble Space Telescope Gyro Current Increase Led to a Method to Save a Failing Gyro

Throughout the history of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) program, gyro current increases have been observed to occur, oftentimes leading to gyro failure. The explanation was that debris from the surfaces of the gas bearings, with only 50 millionths on an inch clearance, resulted in rotor restriction, which increased friction, torque, and current. However, the rotor restriction theory never could account for the fact that a restart of the gyro would restore the current back to nominal. An effort was made to understand this puzzling gyro behavior after two HST gyros exhibited increased current within the same week in November 2015. A review board was created to resolve these anomalies and generate operational procedures to potentially extend gyro life.

Mechanism↗

NASA NTRS2017

New Understanding of Hubble Space Telescope Gyro Current Increase Led to a Method to Save a Failing Gyro Presentation

Throughout the history of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) program, gyro current increases have been observed to occur, often times leading to gyro failure. The explanation was that debris from the surfaces of the gas bearings, with only 1.27 micron clearance, resulted in rotor restriction, which increased friction, torque, and current. However, the rotor restriction theory never could account for the fact that a restart of the gyro would restore the current back to nominal. An effort was made to understand this puzzling gyro behavior after two HST gyros exhibited increased current within the same week in November 2015. A review board was created to resolve these anomalies and generate operational procedures to potentially extend gyro life. A new understanding of gyro current behavior led to implementation of a method that could potentially save a failing gyro.

mechanism↗

NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

The relative impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and stratospheric ozone depletion on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period are quantified using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. The experiment compares controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, in which either GHGs or ozone depleting substances, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and ozone-depleting substances have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease, but GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. It is also found that both the acceleration of the diabatic circulation and the decrease of the mean age difference between downwelling and upwelling regions are mainly caused by GHG forcing. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: (1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup that inhibits young midlatitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex, and (2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

stratospheric ozone depletion↗

NASA NTRS2017

Temperature and Snowfall in Western Queen Maud Land Increasing Faster than Climate Model Projections

East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance is largely driven by snowfall. Recently, increased snowfall in Queen Maud Land led to years of EAIS mass gain. It is difficult to determine whether these years of enhanced snowfall are anomalous or part of a longer-term trend, reducing our ability to assess the mitigating impact of snowfall on sea level rise. We determine that the recent snowfall increases in western Queen Maud Land (QML) are part of a long-term trend (+5.2 +/- 3.7% decade(exp -1)) and are unprecedented over the past two millennia. Warming between 1998 and 2016 is significant and rapid (+1.1 +/- 0.7 C decade(exp -1)). Using these observations, we determine that the current accumulation and temperature increases in QML from an ensemble of global climate simulations are too low, which suggests that projections of the QML contribution to sea level rise are potentially overestimated with a reduced mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall in a warming world.

WAIS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Exploration of Double Clad Fibers for Increased Stability of Bidirectional Free Space Optical Links

Bidirectional, high data rate, low size, weight, and power (SWaP), and low cost free space optical links are needed for space communication applications to send and receive large volumes of data. We are exploring design strategies for optical transceivers to reduce SWaP and cost through increased misalignment tolerance (pointing requirement reduction) and sharing the optical transmit and receive paths (imposing optical symmetry). In applications where the detector is fiber coupled, the fiber numerical aperture is the main driver of the pointing accuracy requirement. Unfortunately, reducing the pointing requirement by increasing the fiber numerical aperture symmetrically causes instability in received power over small environmental changes. This paper explores double clad fibers as a solution to both reduce the power instability and increase the pointing accuracy tolerance. Double clad fibers can transmit a Gaussian beam from a single mode fiber and receive in a multi-mode aperture. Results show that double clad fiber have an improved misalignment tolerance and a higher stability for small changes in temperature when compared to single mode fibers and multimode fibers. Also, double clad fibers are shown to match the performance of an asymmetrical link design with a single mode transmit fiber and a multimode receive fiber.

Double Clad fibers↗

NASA NTRS2018

Exploration of Double Clad Fibers for Increased Stability of Bidirectional Free Space Optical Links

Double Clad fibers↗

NASA NTRS2018

Increasing the Statistical Rigor of Cross-Species Differential Expression Analysis

Microgravity inflicts substantial, but undercharacterized, pressure on organisms that induces metabolic responses such as increased microbial virulence and antibiotic resistance, altered organ weights in developing rats, and loss of bone tissue in astronauts. Numerous studies have analyzed the effects of microgravity on specific organisms, tissues, or test conditions, but these projects are necessarily limited by the small sample size of space research. Increasing the sample size of spaceflight studies is non-trivial; however, pooling data from numerous studies can greatly increase the statistical rigor of comparative analyses. The GeneLab houses datasets from 73 spaceflight studies that performed transcription profiling assays. These data encompass a diverse array of organisms ranging from Escherichia coli to Mus musculus to Homo sapiens and comprise studies analyzing ionizing radiation, mammalian pregnancy, etc. Collectively, the GeneLab database contains a large quantity of transcription assays and RNA sequence data analyzing Differential Gene Expression (DGE) between microand normogravity. Xspecies, a cross-species analysis method for DGE developed by Kristiansson, et al. in 2012, identifies homologous genes between species that are universally up- or downregulated in response to test conditions. Previous work by an intern at GeneLab applied Xspecies to 19 datasets containing seven different species and identified 14 homologous groups differentially expressed under spaceflight conditions including several heat shock proteins and cytoskeletal components. Unfortunately, these results may be biased by the disproportionate number of studies on Arabidopsis thaliana (5) and Mus musculus (6) and the results are not normalized by evolutionary distances. Here, we present modifications to the Xspecies algorithm that permits incorporation of multi-omic data and normalizes data for effect size, directionality, and evolutionary distances. We then apply this algorithm to all currently available GeneLab studies

Xspecies↗

NASA NTRS2018

El Nino Drought Increased Canopy Turnover in Amazon Forests

Amazon droughts, including the 2015-2016 El Ni~no, may reduce forest net primary productivityand increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering both the short- and the longtermnet forest carbon balance. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, inventory plots oreddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. We used multi-temporal airborne Lidar data and field measurements of coarse woodydebris to estimate patterns of canopy turnover and associated carbon losses in intact and fragmentedforests in the central Brazilian Amazon between 2013-2014 and 2014-2016. Average annualized canopy turnover rates increased by 65% during the drought period inboth intact and fragmented forests. The average size and height of turnover events was similarfor both time intervals, in contrast to expectations that the 2015-2016 El Ni~no droughtwould disproportionally affect large trees. Lidar biomass relationships between canopyturnover and field measurements of coarse woody debris were modest (R2 0.3), given similarcoarse woody debris production and Lidar-derived changes in canopy volume from singletree and multiple branch fall events. Our findings suggest that El Ni~no conditions accelerated canopy turnover in central Amazonforests, increasing coarse woody debris production by 62% to 1.22 Mg C ha1(exp) yr1(exp) indrought years.

ecosystem models↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗

NASA NTRS2018

On the Increasing Importance of Air-Sea Exchanges in a Thawing Arctic: A Review

Forty years ago, climate scientists predicted the Arctic to be on of Earth’s most sensitive climate regions and thus extremely vulnerable to increased CO2. The rapid and unprecedented changes observed in the Arctic confirm this prediction, which has consequences that ripple through the global climate system. Especially significant, sea ice loss is altering the exchange of mass, energy, and momentum between the atmosphere and Arctic Ocean. A thick, extensive, and multiyear ice cover has historically limited such exchanges, however, the summertime Arctic Ocean is expected to be nearly ice‐free within 15 years increasing the potential for air‐sea exchange. Changes in surface turbulent fluxes can alter the Arctic surface energy budget, sea ice, clouds, boundary layer temperature and humidity, and atmospheric and oceanic circulations. This paper reviews current knowledge of surface turbulent fluxes across the Arctic Ocean and the known effects on climate. We conclude that Arctic air‐sea energy exchanges are becoming an increasingly consequential factor driving Arctic climate. Arctic Ocean surface turbulent energy exchanges are not smooth and steady but rather irregular and episodic, considering this nature of air‐sea energy exchanges is essential for improving Arctic climate projections. New field data focusing on the episodic nature of air‐sea exchange will accelerate our understanding of Arctic climate change.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Widespread Increase of Boreal Summer Dry Season Length Over the Congo Rainforest

Dry season length strongly influences tropical rainforest vegetation and is largely determined by precipitation patterns. Over the Amazon, the dry season length has increased since 1979 and severe short-term droughts have occurred. However, similar changes have not been investigated for the world’s second largest rainforest, the Congo Basin, where long-term drying and large-scale declines in forest greenness and canopy water content were reported. Here we present observational evidence for widespread increases in the boreal summer (June–August) dry season length over the Congo Basin since the 1980s, from both hydrological and ecological perspectives. We analyzed both dry season onset and dry season end via multiple independent precipitation and satellite derived vegetation datasets for the period 1979–2015. The dry season length increased by 6.4–10.4 days per decade in the period 1988–2013, primarily attributed to an earlier dry season onset and a delayed dry season end. The earlier dry season onset was caused by long-term droughts due to decreased rainfall in the pre-dry season (April–June). The delayed dry season end resulted from insufficiently replenished soil moisture, which postpones the start of the next wet season and hinders vegetation regrowth. If such changes continue, the enhanced water stress in a warming climate may affect the carbon cycle and alter the composition and structure of evergreen rainforest.

Congo rainforest growing season NDVI SIF↗

NASA NTRS2021

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

Long-term projections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high-top \Middle Atmosphere" (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2-AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere{ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone-dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre-industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simpli fied stratospheric ozone schemes.

GISS Model E2.2-AP↗

NASA NTRS2020

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗

NASA NTRS2021

Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback

The surprising increase of Earth's climate sensitivity in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models has been largely attributed to extratropical cloud feedback, which is thought to be driven by greater supercooled water in present-day cloud phase partitioning (CPP). Here we report that accounting for precipitation in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE3 radiation scheme, neglected in more than 60% of CMIP6 and 90% of CMIP5 models, systematically changes its apparent CPP and substantially increases its cloud feedback, consistent with results using CMIP models. Including precipitation in the comparison with Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) measurements and in model radiation schemes is essential to faithfully constrain cloud amount and phase partitioning, and simulate cloud feedbacks. Our findings suggest that making radiation schemes precipitation-aware (missing in most CMIP6 models) should strengthen their positive cloud feedback and further increase their already high mean climate sensitivity.

Earth's climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS2021

The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period

Stratospheric radiative damping increases as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rises. We use the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to conduct sensitivity experiments and find that the simulated QBO period shortens due to the enhancing of radiative damping in the stratosphere. This result suggests that increasing stratospheric radiative damping due to rising CO2 may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity, both of which also respond to increasing CO2.

Stratospheric Radiative Damping↗

NASA NTRS2021

Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization4, flood mitigation infrastructure and increasing settlements in floodplains6. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255–290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58–86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

B.Tellman↗

NASA NTRS2021

Liana optical traits increase tropical forest albedo and reduce ecosystem productivity

Lianas are a key growth form in tropical forests. Their lack of self-supporting tissues and their vertical position on top of the canopy make them strong competitors of resources. A few pioneer studies have shown that liana optical traits differ on average from those of colocated trees. Those trait discrepancies were hypothesized to be responsible for the competitive advantage of lianas over trees. Yet, in the absence of reliable modelling tools, it is impossible to unravel their impact on the forest energy balance, light competition, and on the liana success in Neotropical forests. To bridge this gap, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature to gather all published liana leaf optical spectra, as well as all canopy spectra measured over different levels of liana infestation. We then used a Bayesian data assimilation framework applied to two radiative transfer models (RTMs) covering the leaf and canopy scales to derive tropical tree and liana trait distributions, which finally informed a full dynamic vegetation model. According to the RTMs inversion, lianas grew thinner, more horizontal leaves with lower pigment concentrations. Those traits made the lianas very efficient at light interception and significantly modified the forest energy balance and its carbon cycle. While forest albedo increased by 14% in the shortwave, light availability was reduced in the understorey (−30% of the PAR radiation) and soil temperature decreased by 0.5°C. Those liana-specific traits were also responsible for a significant reduction of tree (−19%) and ecosystem (−7%) gross primary productivity (GPP) while lianas benefited from them (their GPP increased by +27%). This study provides a novel mechanistic explanation to the increase in liana abundance, new evidence of the impact of lianas on forest functioning, and paves the way for the evaluation of the large-scale impacts of lianas on forest biogeochemical cycles.

Félicien Meunier↗