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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of mineral reactive surface area variation on simulated mineral reactions and reaction rates

Reactive transport modeling is an essential tool to simulate complex geochemical reactions in porous media that can impact formation properties including porosity and permeability. However, simulating these reactions is challenging due to uncertainties in model parameters, particularly mineral surface areas. Imaging has emerged as a powerful means of estimating model parameters including porosity and mineral abundance, accessibility and accessible surface area. However, these parameters, particularly mineral accessible surface area, vary with image resolution. This work aims to enhance understanding of the impact of image resolution and other means of estimating mineral reactive surface area on simulated mineral reactions and reaction rates. Mineral surface areas calculated from images with resolutions of 0.34 μm and 5.71 μm were used to simulate mineral reactions in the context of geologic CO 2 sequestration in the Paluxy formation at the continuum scale. Additional simulations were carried out using BET surface areas collected from the literature and geometric surface areas. Simulations were run for 7300 days and mineral volume fractions and effluent ion concentrations tracked and compared. Variations in mineral surface areas measured from images are within 1 order of magnitude and yield similar simulation results, indicating the impact of image resolution on simulated reactions and reaction rates is minimum for the resolutions and sample considered. In comparison, surface areas obtained from BET and geometric approaches are 1–4 orders of magnitude higher than image-obtained surface areas and result in greater simulated reaction rates and extents. Minerals with high reaction rates (calcite and siderite) are most impacted by surface area values at short times where simulated mineral volume fractions at longer times agree relatively well, even for simulations with several orders of magnitude variation in surface area. Phases with lower reaction rates, such as K-feldspar and muscovite, are predominantly impacted over longer times where variations in surface areas impact reaction extents and porosity evolution. Overall, variations in surface areas due to image resolution are small and result in little variation in simulated reactions and reaction rates while there are significant variations in simulation results when other surface area estimates are used. These variations, however, depend on the reactivity of the mineral phase where surface areas of fast-reacting phases largely impact simulations at short (hours to days) timescales and surface areas of slower-reactive phases impact longer term simulations (years).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Impact disruption of gravity-dominated bodies: New simulation data and scaling

We present results from a suite of 169 hydrocode simulations of collisions between planetary bodies with radii from 100 to 1000 km. The simulation data are used to derive a simple scaling law for the threshold for catastrophic disruption, defined as a collision that leads to half the total colliding mass escaping the system post impact. For a target radius 100 ≤ R T ≤ 1000km and a mass M T and a projectile radius r p ≤ R T and mass mp we find that a head-on impact with velocity magnitude v is catastrophic if the kinetic energy of the system in the center of mass frame, K=0.5 M T m p v 2 /(M T +m p ) exceeds a threshold value K* that is a few times U= (3/5) GM$2\atop{T}$/RT+ (3/5) Gm$2\atop{p}$/r p + GM T m p /(R T +r p ), the gravitational binding energy of the system at the moment of impact; G is the gravitational constant. In all head-on collision runs we find K* = (5.5 ± 2.9) U. Oblique impacts are catastrophic when the fraction of kinetic energy contained in the volume of the projectile intersecting the target during impact exceeds ~2 K* for 30° impacts and ~3.5 K* for 45° impacts. We compare predictions made with this scaling to those made with existing scaling laws in the literature extrapolated from numerical studies on smaller targets. We find significant divergence between predictions where in general our results suggest a lower threshold for disruption except for highly oblique impacts with rp << RT. Lastly, this has implications for the efficiency of collisional grinding in the asteroid belt (Morbidelli et al., [2009] Icarus, 204, 558–573), Kuiper belt (Greenstreet et al., [2015] Icarus, 258, 267–288), and early Solar System accretion (Chambers [2013], Icarus, 224, 43–56).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrodynamic instability at impact interfaces and planetary implications

Abstract Impact-induced mixing between bolide and target is fundamental to the geochemical evolution of a growing planet, yet aside from local mixing due to jetting – associated with large angles of incidence between impacting surfaces – mixing during planetary impacts is poorly understood. Here we describe a dynamic instability of the surface between impacting materials, showing that a region of mixing grows between two media having even minimal initial topography. This additional cause of impact-induced mixing is related to Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI), and results from pressure perturbations amplified by shock-wave refraction through the corrugated interface between impactor and target. However, unlike RMI, this new impact-induced instability appears even if the bodies are made of the same material. Hydrocode simulations illustrate the growth of this mixing zone for planetary impacts, and predict results suitable for experimental validation in the laboratory. This form of impact mixing may be relevant to the formation of stony-iron and other meteorites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2010

THE PHYSICS OF PROTOPLANETESIMAL DUST AGGLOMERATES. V. MULTIPLE IMPACTS OF DUSTY AGGLOMERATES AT VELOCITIES ABOVE THE FRAGMENTATION THRESHOLD

In recent years, a number of new experiments have advanced our knowledge on the early growth phases of protoplanetary dust aggregates. Some of these experiments have shown that collisions between porous and compacted agglomerates at velocities above the fragmentation threshold velocity can lead to growth of the compact body, when the porous collision partner fragments upon impact and transfers mass to the compact agglomerate. To obtain a deeper understanding of this potentially important growth process, we performed laboratory and drop tower experiments to study multiple impacts of small, highly porous dust-aggregate projectiles onto sintered dust targets. The projectile and target consisted of 1.5 {mu}m monodisperse, spherical SiO{sub 2} monomers with volume filling factors of 0.15 {+-} 0.01 and 0.45 {+-} 0.05, respectively. The fragile projectiles were accelerated by a solenoid magnet and combined with a projectile magazine with which 25 impacts onto the same spot on the target could be performed in vacuum. We measured the mass-accretion efficiency and the volume filling factor for different impact velocities between 1.5 and 6.0 m s{sup -1}. The experiments at the lowest impact speeds were performed in the Bremen drop tower under microgravity conditions to allow partial mass transfer also for the lowest adhesion case. Within this velocity range, we found a linear increase of the accretion efficiency with increasing velocity. In the laboratory experiments, the accretion efficiency increases from 0.12 to 0.21 in units of the projectile mass. The recorded images of the impacts showed that the mass transfer from the projectile to the target leads to the growth of a conical structure on the target after less than 100 impacts. From the images, we also measured the volume filling factors of the grown structures, which ranged from 0.15 (uncompacted) to 0.40 (significantly compacted) with increasing impact speed. The velocity dependency of the mass-transfer efficiency and the packing density of the resulting aggregates augment our knowledge of the aggregate growth in protoplanetary disks and should be taken into account for future models of protoplanetary dust growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

EVOLUTION OF POST-IMPACT COMPANION STARS IN SN Ia REMNANTS WITHIN THE SINGLE-DEGENERATE SCENARIO

The nature of the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae is still uncertain. One way to distinguish between the single-degenerate scenario and double-degenerate scenario is to search for the post-impact remnant star. To examine the characteristics of the post-impact remnant star, we have carried out three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of supernova impacts on main-sequence-like stars. We explore the evolution of the post-impact remnants using the stellar evolution code MESA. We find that the luminosity and radius of the remnant star dramatically increase just after the impact. After the explosion, post-impact companions continue to expand on a progenitor-dependent timescale of {approx}10{sup 2.5}-10{sup 3} years before contracting. It is found that the time evolution of the remnant star is dependent not only on the amount of energy absorbed but also on the depth of the energy deposition. We examine the viability of the candidate star Tycho G as the possible remnant companion in Tycho's supernova by comparing it to the evolved post-impact remnant stars in our simulations. The closest model in our simulations has a similar effective temperature, but the luminosity and radius are twice as large. By examining the angular momentum distribution in our simulations, we find that the surface rotational speed could drop to {approx}10 km s{sup -1} if the specific angular momentum is conserved during the post-impact evolution, implying that Tycho G cannot be completely ruled out because of its low surface rotation speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

BRIGHT HOT IMPACTS BY ERUPTED FRAGMENTS FALLING BACK ON THE SUN: UV REDSHIFTS IN STELLAR ACCRETION

A solar eruption after a flare on 2011 June 7 produced EUV-bright impacts of fallbacks far from the eruption site, observed with the Solar Dynamics Observatory. These impacts can be taken as a template for the impact of stellar accretion flows. Broad redshifted UV lines have been commonly observed in young accreting stars. Here we study the emission from the impacts in the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly's UV channels and compare the inferred velocity distribution to stellar observations. We model the impacts with two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations. We find that the localized UV 1600 Å emission and its timing with respect to the EUV emission can be explained by the impact of a cloud of fragments. The first impacts produce strong initial upflows. The following fragments are hit and shocked by these upflows. The UV emission comes mostly from the shocked front shell of the fragments while they are still falling, and is therefore redshifted when observed from above. The EUV emission instead continues from the hot surface layer that is fed by the impacts. Fragmented accretion can therefore explain broad redshifted UV lines (e.g., C IV 1550 Å) to speeds around 400 km s{sup –1} observed in accreting young stellar objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Transition From Rebound to Bonding in High-Velocity Metallic Microparticle Impacts: Jetting-Associated Power-Law Divergence

A metallic microparticle impacting a metallic substrate with sufficiently high velocity will adhere, assisted by the emergence of jetting—the splash-like extrusion of solid matter at the periphery of the impact. In this work, we compare real-time observations of high-velocity single-microparticle impacts to an elastic–plastic model to develop a more thorough understanding of the transition between the regimes of rebound and bonding. We first extract an effective dynamic yield strength for copper from prior experiments impacting alumina spheres onto copper substrates. We then use this dynamic yield strength to analyze impacts of copper particles on copper substrates. We find that up to moderate impact velocities, impacts and rebound velocities follow a power-law behavior well-predicted on the basis of elastic-perfectly plastic analysis and can be captured well with a single value for the dynamic strength that subsumes many details not explicitly modeled (rate and hardening effects and adiabatic heating). However, the rebound behavior diverges from the power-law at higher impact velocities approaching bonding, where jetting sets on. This divergence is associated with additional lost kinetic energy, which goes into the ejection of the material associated with jetting and into breaking incipient bonds between the particle and substrate. These results further support and develop the idea that jetting facilitates bonding where a critical amount of bond formation is required to effect permanent particle deposition and prevent the particle from rebounding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Melting and Ejecta Produced by High Velocity Microparticle Impacts of Steel on Tin

At sufficiently high velocities, a microparticle impacting a metal substrate can cause ejection of material from the substrate and impact-induced melting, both of which can result in erosion. Here, we directly image the impact of individual hard steel microparticles on soft tin substrates, at controlled impact velocities in the range of ~100 to 1000 m/s. By using scanning electron and laser scanning confocal microscopy, we characterize the surface morphology, depth, and volume of each impact crater. We observe a gradual onset of impact-induced melting in the craters, as well as the production of increasing amounts of ejecta from the target metal. By comparing measurements of impact and rebound velocity to an elastic-plastic model, we observe that at a high enough impact velocity, melting and ejection begin to consume additional kinetic energy beyond that expected by plastic deformation of the target material alone. By calculating the excess energy dissipation using this elastic-plastic model, we show that although this divergent behavior is associated with the onset of melting, the majority of the ejected volume must be solid rather than liquid.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2011

Low Velocity Sphere Impact of a Soda Lime Silicate Glass

This report summarizes TARDEC-sponsored work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) during the FY11 involving low velocity (< 30 m/s or < 65 mph) ball impact testing of Starphire soda lime silicate glass. The intent was to better understand low velocity impact response in the Starphire for sphere densities that bracketed that of rock. Five sphere materials were used: borosilicate glass, soda-lime silicate glass, steel, silicon nitride, and alumina. A gas gun was fabricated to produce controlled velocity delivery of the spheres against Starphire tile targets. Minimum impact velocities to initiate fracture in the Starphire were measured and interpreted in context to the kinetic energy of impact and the elastic property mismatch between the any of the five sphere-Starphire-target combinations. The primary observations from this low velocity (< 30 m/s or < 65 mph) testing were: (1) Frictional effects contribute to fracture initiation. (2) Spheres with a lower elastic modulus require less force to initiate fracture in the Starphire than spheres with a higher elastic modulus. (3) Contact-induced fracture did not initiate in the Starphire SLS for impact kinetic energies < 150 mJ. Fracture sometimes initiated or kinetic energies between {approx} 150-1100 mJ; however, it tended to occur when lower elastic modulus spheres were impacting it. Contact-induced fracture would always occur for impact energies > 1100 mJ. (4) The force necessary to initiate contact-induced fracture is higher under dynamic or impact conditions than it is under quasi-static indentation conditions. (5) Among the five used sphere materials, silicon nitride was the closest match to 'rock' in terms of both density and (probably) elastic modulus.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evaluation of the Impact of Thin Pours on Saltstone Properties

The proposed Saltstone Disposal Unit 6 (SDU6) is a larger structure than the SDU4 cells and larger than the disposal units (SDU2, SDU3, and SDU5) currently in use or under construction. The additional capacity provided by SDU6 is desired to reduce life cycle costs and support site accelerated closure goals. The larger size of the planned SDU6 could result in saltstone being placed in thinner lifts as the unit is filled. This study was performed to determine whether thinner layers of saltstone negatively impact the performance of the waste form. A larger number of cold joints could potentially result in increased drying, salt deposition, and surface oxidation. A matrix of samples was prepared to simulate thin pours ranging from 0.5 to 6 inches thick. Each sample was cured for at least 28 days prior to further characterization. Leachability results showed that there is no obvious impact of the number of grout layers on the Leachability Index values for Na and NO 3 . The concentrations of Cr, NO 2 , and C 2 O 4 were below detection limits for all of the leachates. No attempt was made to evaluate the oxidation of these samples since no measureable Cr was leached, although this would appear to indicate that Cr in the samples remained reduced for cold joints with surfaces exposed for approximately four days. The results of hydraulic conductivity measurements showed that the number of cold joints in the samples did not have a significant impact on the measured values for the vertical lift orientation (i.e., when the flow path is perpendicular to the cold joints). For the horizontal lift orientation (i.e., when the flow path is parallel to the cold joints), the number of cold joints in the samples also did not appear to have a significant impact on hydraulic conductivity. The measured hydraulic conductivity was faster when the flow path was parallel to the cold joints as compared to when the flow path was perpendicular to the cold joints. Percolation testing showed increased flow when the number of cold joints was increased. Compressive strength testing showed that the maximum load at the onset of cracking was reduced by approximately 26% for those samples that contained cold joints as compared to the monolithic samples. The number of cold joints in the sample had no significant impact on the maximum load prior to cracking. The porosity of the samples was not influenced by cold joints. This result was expected as the porosity is a material property affected by the properties of the components (premix and salt solution) and the water to premix ratio. Overall, the only obvious impact of cold joints in the samples was to significantly increase hydraulic conductivity in the direction parallel to the cold joints. An increasing number of cold joints (thin layers) in the simulated saltstone samples did not exacerbate this effect, nor did it have a negative impact on the Leachability Indices or porosity for surfaces exposed for approximately four days. The presence of a cold joint reduced the compressive strength of the material, although this impact was seen regardless of the number of cold joints in the sample.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of Composition B Sphere Impact Fragmentation Experiments

Since energetic material fragmentation governs the surface area available for burning and potential escalation to violent reaction modes (e.g., deflagration-to-­detonation transition and XDT modes), it is critical that hazard response models accurately capture impact damage response. The objective of this work is to analyze recent Composition B sphere impact experiments conducted by Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division (NAWCWD) that probe fragmentation response for impact speeds from 27 to 127 m/s. In those experiments, fragment size distribution was measured by dry sieving damaged samples. A power law relationship was developed for the normalized cumulative fragment number as a function of the normalized fragment mass, (N/ N$_{tot}$ = A (M$_{bin}$/ M$_{avg}$ ) n , across all impact speeds. The power law fits demonstrated good agreement with the experimental data. We also correlated the power law fitting parameters to the impact speed. The power law prefactor, A, obeyed a polynomial relationship while the power law exponent, n, obeyed a linear relationship in impact speed. While this preliminary analysis shows good agreement with Composition B fragmentation data, it was based on experiments over a limited range of impact speeds and a single sample size. Future modeling-­based studies are critical to improve our understanding of fragmentation response and to more confidently extrapolate to larger length-­scales and higher impact speeds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Falling particle impact erosion testing for particle based CSP systems

CSP systems are currently being examined as an effective method for using solar energy to generate electricity. While much of this research has been conducted using molten salt as the heat transfer medium, in recent years, solid particles have been posited as a cheaper and more energy efficient heat transfer medium for use in CSP systems. Many researchers have looked into the effectiveness of solid particles as a heat transfer medium. However, a concern with the use of particles is that the falling particles will impact various components within the CSP system, such as the hopper, the heat exchanger, and the insulating material, resulting in surface erosion and damage. With repeated impacts from falling particles, material from the surfaces under impact is removed. The degree of erosion depends on whether the substrate is made of brittle or ductile material. Furthermore, factors such as particle shape, size, hardness, concentration, impact angle, particle velocity, and substrate hardness will contribute to the erosion process and determine how much and how quickly erosion will takes place in a system. Three types of erosion will be observed simultaneously: impact erosion from particle impact on receiver, particle storage, and heat exchanger walls, abrasion erosion from particle sliding motion along walls, and attrition erosion as the particles breakdown from particle-to-particle contact and particle-to-wall interactions. It is imperative to understand each of these erosions individually for a more comprehensive understanding and prediction of CSP system durability. In this work, we developed an experimental test setup capable of measuring impact erosion at conditions relevant to 1MW CSP plant. Subsequently, Impact erosion measurements were performed for three different candidate substrate materials at low particle velocities using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Spatio-Temporal Regime Tracking Method for Impact Simulations

In this proposal, we present a novel method of tracking the rheological regimes activated during impact cratering events that will allow researchers to gain new insights into cratering mechanics. Rheology describes the stress-strain response of rocks to different conditions. Planetary impact cratering events often occur on too large of a scale to be feasibly captured in controlled experiments. Instead, these dynamic events are primarily studied using multi-physics codes equipped with complex material models that enable calculations of the impact event at scale. However, determining which physical processes are required for the problem of interest is challenging. Because the dominant rheological regimes change with space and time during crater formation, it is difficult to link numerical simulations with observable features of craters at the end of the event. The basis of this work is the implementation of numerical flags that track the activation of each rheological regime throughout impact simulations. We demonstrate this with the ‘Rock Model’ implemented in the CTH shock-physics code. We will use this rheology tracking method to ’zoom in’ on a specific region within an event and track the conditions the rock experiences over time. This work will develop community benchmarks to validate and distribute our implemented rheological models. We will focus on improving the melt models used by the planetary impact modeling community by developing an EOS-aware rheological transition from solid to melt. Through analysis of cell and tracer-particle based tracking data, we will study the effects of different rheologies on modeled outcomes, particularly on the volume and distributions of impacts melts. We will also use this method to link observable features with the rheological mechanisms responsible for them. The deliverables (peer-reviewed papers) from the proposed work are (i) tests of the implemented rheologic processes and demonstrations of the tracking flags; (ii) the first calculations of the spatio-temporal evolution of the dominant rheologies during impact cratering events; and (iii) application to delivery of impactor iron during basin-scale impacts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Financial Impacts of Net-Metered Distributed PV on a Prototypical Western Utility’s Shareholders and Ratepayers

Distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) under net-energy metering with volumetric retail electricity pricing has raised concerns among utilities and regulators about adverse financial impacts for shareholders and ratepayers. Using a pro forma financial model, we estimate the financial impacts of different DPV deployment levels on a prototypical Western U.S. investor-owned utility under a varied set of operating conditions that would be expected to affect the value of DPV. Our results show that the financial impacts on shareholders and ratepayers increase as the level of DPV deployment increases, though the magnitude is small even at high DPV penetration levels. Even rather dramatic changes in DPV value result in modest changes to shareholder and ratepayer impacts, but the impacts on the former are greater than the latter (in percentage terms). The range of financial impacts are driven by differences in the amount of incremental capital investment that is deferred, as well as the amount of incremental distribution operating expenses that are incurred. While many of the impacts appear relatively small (on a percentage basis), they demonstrate how the magnitude of impacts depend critically on utility physical, financial, and operating characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Missing Correlation Between the Potential Rate Impacts of Rooftop Solar and the Timing of State Net Metering Policy Revisions

Data supporting the article “The Missing Correlation Between the Potential Rate Impacts of Rooftop Solar and the Timing of State Net Metering Policy Revisions” (https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/93543.pdf). Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states-California and Hawaii-retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗