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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

FY2020 Fourth Quarter Performance Metric: Evaluate Improvement in Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems from New Parameterization Developments in E3SM

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) consist of an assembly of cumulonimbus clouds on scales of 100 km or more and produce mesoscale circulations (Houze, 2004, 2018). As the largest form of deep convective storms, MCSs contribute to 30% – 70% of annual and warm season rainfall in the U.S. and in the global tropics (Houze 2018; Stevenson & Schumacher, 2014; Feng et al., 2019; Haberlie & Ashley, 2019). Since MCSs contribute importantly to mean and extreme precipitation in the U.S. and many other regions around the world, understanding how well they are simulated by E3SM may guide future development towards more skillful modeling of convective storms and associated hydrologic impacts. The FY2020 Second Quarter Performance Metric Report documented comparisons of MCSs in the central and eastern U.S. in a high-resolution simulation produced by E3SM v1 at 25 km resolution (Caldwell et al. 2019) with observations. MCSs in the simulation occur less frequently and produce less intense precipitation, resulting in large underestimation of MCS volumetric rain-rate compared to observations. The first and third quarter performance metric report indicated that these model biases in simulating MCSs can be attributed to model limitations in parameterizing convection, clouds, and other related processes, as well as model biases in simulating the MCS large-scale environment. In the current FY2020 Fourth Quarter Performance Metric Report, we evaluate MCSs simulated in E3SM with several new developments in convection parameterizations that are being developed for its next generation. The goal is to summarize what have been improved with the new developments and highlight what need more work in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Does practice make perfect? Lessons learned from full-scale power system incident response exercise

While threats to the energy sector occur daily, few utilities get the opportunity to fully test out their detection and response mechanisms to advanced threats in the real world. With the high demand for reliability, few grid operators would allow execution of simulated cyber-attacks on their live systems. The DOE-funded Liberty Eclipse project offers a unique opportunity for small and large utilities and coops to practice their combined IT/OT responses to a live red team executing attacks against an isolated power system on an island in New York. Both cyber teams and power operations teams must work together to detect and respond to attacks, even restoring the power system against extreme impacts. Lessons learned from these exercises reveal key takeaways for understanding what a real attack against the electric sector will look like, gaps in execution of the best-laid plans when the pressure of a real event is bearing down, and how organizations can better prepare for advanced attacks by optimizing participation in exercises. This presentation will discuss successes and opportunities for improvement both in how utilities can prepare for and respond to events, as well as how full-scale IT/OT exercises can be coordinated.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warm-season net CO 2 uptake outweighs cold-season emissions over Alaskan North Slope tundra under current and RCP8.5 climate

Abstract Arctic warming has increased vegetation growth and soil respiration during recent decades. The rate of Arctic warming will likely amplify over the 21st century. Previous studies have revealed that the most severe Arctic warming occurred during the cold season (September to May). The cold-season warming has posited significant CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere via respiration, possibly offsetting warm-season (June to August) net CO 2 uptake. However, prevailing Earth system land models poorly represent cold-season CO 2 emissions, making estimates of Arctic tundra annual CO 2 budgets highly uncertain. Here, we demonstrate that an improved version of the energy exascale Earth system model (E3SM) land model (ELMv1-ECA) captures the large amount of cold-season CO 2 emissions over Alaskan Arctic tundra as reported by two independent, observationally-constrained datasets. We found that the recent seven-decades warming trend of cold-season soil temperature is three times that of the warm-season. The climate sensitivity of warm-season net CO 2 uptake, however, is threefold higher than for the cold-season net CO 2 loss, mainly due to stronger plant resilience than microbial resilience to hydroclimatic extremes. Consequently, the modeled warm-season net CO 2 uptake has a larger positive trend (0.74 ± 0.14 gC m −2 yr −1 ) than that of cold-season CO 2 emissions (0.64 ± 0.11 gC m −2 yr −1 ) from 1950 to 2017, supported by enhanced plant nutrient uptake and increased light- and water-use efficiency. With continued warming and elevated CO 2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the increasing rate of warm-season net CO 2 uptake is more than twice the rate of cold-season emissions (1.33 ± 0.32 gC m −2 yr −1 vs 0.50 ± 0.12 gC m −2 yr −1 ), making the modeled Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystem a net CO 2 sink by 2100. However, other geomorphological and ecological disturbances (e.g. abrupt permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, landscape-scale hydrological changes, wildfire, and insects) that are not considered here might alter our conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative analysis of dislocations in 4H-SiC wafers using synchrotron X-ray topography with ultra-high angular resolution

Utilization of an Si(331) beam conditioner together with an Si(111) double-crystal monochromator (DCM) enables the angular resolution of synchrotron X-ray topography to be increased by an order of magnitude compared with grazing-incidence topography or back-reflection topography conducted with the DCM alone. This improved technique with extremely small beam divergence is referred to as synchrotron X-ray plane-wave topography (SXPWT). This study demonstrates that the rocking curve width of 4H-SiC 0008 in PWT is only 2.5" and thus the lattice distortion at the scale of 1" will significantly affect the diffracted intensity. This work reports the ultra-high angular resolution in SXPWT which enables detailed probing of the lattice distortion outside the dislocation core in 4H-SiC, where the sign of the Burgers vector can be readily determined through comparison with ray-tracing simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cryptic genetic structure and copy-number variation in the ubiquitous forest symbiotic fungus Cenococcum geophilum

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi associated with plants constitute one of the most successful symbiotic interactions in forest ecosystems. ECM support trophic exchanges with host plants and are important factors for the survival and stress resilience of trees. However, ECM clades often harbour morpho-species and cryptic lineages, with weak morphological differentiation. How this relates to intraspecific genome variability and ecological functioning is poorly known. Here, we analysed 16 European isolates of the ascomycete Cenococcum geophilum, an extremely ubiquitous forest symbiotic fungus with no known sexual or asexual spore-forming structures but with a massively enlarged genome. We carried out whole-genome sequencing to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We found no geographic structure at the European scale but divergent lineages within sampling sites. Evidence for recombination was restricted to specific cryptic lineages. Lineage differentiation was supported by extensive copy-number variation. Finally, we confirmed heterothallism with a single MAT1 idiomorph per genome. Synteny analyses of the MAT1 locus revealed substantial rearrangements and a pseudogene of the opposite MAT1 idiomorph. Our study provides the first evidence for substantial genome-wide structural variation, lineage-specific recombination and low continent-wide genetic differentiation in C. geophilum. Our study provides a foundation for targeted analyses of intra-specific functional variation in this major symbiosis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of CMIP6 Streamflow in the Arctic

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as the primary basis for projecting future streamflow changes, but they are biased in terms of the their ability to reproduce historical observations of streamflow. Rigorous downscaling and bias-correction procedures, which are time-consuming and introduce uncertainties, are commonly used to address these biases in streamflow or runoff. However, the applicable limits of streamflow projections remain largely untested through direct comparisons with observations. In this work, we compare historical streamflow time series observations with a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to assess the space and time scales at which each ESM represents historic streamflow observations. We focus our analysis on streamflow across the Arctic given the higher degree of warming experienced over this region, underscoring its importance for understanding the future changes. A series of metrics—volume, seasonality, extreme capturing streamflow variability, drought, and flooding is tested to assess ESM simulation skill for total events and overall distributions. Our results indicate that although improvements are necessary in ESM runoff and streamflow projections, the use of temporal averaging and targeting the best-fit model for comparison to observations when a suite of ESMs is considered can provide robust streamflow projections. Moreover, this work provides a basis for contextualizing the limits of ESM applicability for studies aiming to assess streamflow in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The genome-scale metabolic model for the purple non-sulfur bacterium Rhodopseudomonas palustris Bis A53 accurately predicts phenotypes under chemoheterotrophic, chemoautotrophic, photoheterotrophic, and photoautotrophic growth conditions

The purple non-sulfur bacterium Rhodopseudomonas palustris is recognized as a critical microorganism in the nitrogen and carbon cycle and one of the most common members in wastewater treatment communities. This bacterium is metabolically extremely versatile. It is capable of heterotrophic growth under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, but also able to grow photoautotrophically as well as mixotrophically. Therefore R . palustris can adapt to multiple environments and establish commensal relationships with other organisms, expressing various enzymes supporting degradation of amino acids, carbohydrates, nucleotides, and complex polymers. Moreover, R . palustris can degrade a wide range of pollutants under anaerobic conditions, e.g., aromatic compounds such as benzoate and caffeate, enabling it to thrive in chemically contaminated environments. However, many metabolic mechanisms employed by R . palustris to breakdown and assimilate different carbon and nitrogen sources under chemoheterotrophic or photoheterotrophic conditions remain unknown. Systems biology approaches, such as metabolic modeling, have been employed extensively to unravel complex mechanisms of metabolism. Previously, metabolic models have been reconstructed to study selected capabilities of R . palustris under limited experimental conditions. Here, we developed a comprehensive metabolic model (M-model) for R . palustris Bis A53 ( i DT1294) consisting of 2,721 reactions, 2,123 metabolites, and comprising 1,294 genes. We validated the model using high-throughput phenotypic, physiological, and kinetic data, testing over 350 growth conditions. i DT1294 achieved a prediction accuracy of 90% for growth with various carbon and nitrogen sources and close to 80% for assimilation of aromatic compounds. Moreover, the M-model accurately predicts dynamic changes of growth and substrate consumption rates over time under nine chemoheterotrophic conditions and demonstrated high precision in predicting metabolic changes between photoheterotrophic and photoautotrophic conditions. This comprehensive M-model will help to elucidate metabolic processes associated with the assimilation of multiple carbon and nitrogen sources, anoxygenic photosynthesis, aromatic compound degradation, as well as production of molecular hydrogen and polyhydroxybutyrate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI Automated Discovery of New Climate Water System Knowledge from Models and Observations

This paper addresses focus area 3, “Insight gleaned from complex data.” Science Challenge: The climate-water system is highly complex, containing a multitude of positive and negative feedbacks, time scales stretching many orders-of-magnitudes, and non-linear, connected processes. Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) methods can revolutionize and automate the discovery of new knowledge and relationships in the climate-water system, which will improve understanding and predictability of extreme hydrological events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An open-source framework for balancing computational speed and fidelity in production cost models

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models (PCMs) have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) that do not fully support stochastic simulation. Open-source PCMs represent a potential solution. They allow for multiple, simultaneous runs in high-performance computing environments and offer flexibility in model parameterization. Yet, developers must balance computational speed (i.e. runtime) with model fidelity (i.e. accuracy). In this paper, we present Grid Operations (GO), a framework for instantiating open-source, scale-adaptive PCMs. GO allows users to search across parameter spaces to identify model versions that appropriately balance computational speed and fidelity based on experimental needs and resource limits. Results provide generalizable insights on how to navigate the fidelity and computational speed tradeoff through parameter selection. We show that models with coarser network topologies can accurately mimic market operations, sometimes better than higher-resolution models. It is thus possible to conduct large simulation experiments that characterize operational risks related to climate and weather extremes while maintaining sufficient model accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Input to the European strategy for particle physics: strong-field quantum electrodynamics

This document sets out the intention of the strong-field QED community to carry out, both experimentally and numerically, high-statistics parametric studies of quantum electrodynamics in the non-perturbative regime, at fields approaching and exceeding the critical or ‘Schwinger’ field of QED (F qed ≈ m 2 c 3 / eh ≈ 1.3 x 10 18 V/m) in the rest frame of a charged particle. In this regime, several exotic and fascinating phenomena are predicted to occur that have never been directly observed in the laboratory. These include Breit–Wheeler pair production, vacuum birefringence, and quantum radiation reaction. This experimental programme will also serve as a stepping stone towards studies of elusive phenomena such as elastic scattering of real photons and the conjectured perturbative breakdown of QED at extreme fields. State-of-the-art high-power laser facilities in Europe and beyond are starting to offer unique opportunities to study this uncharted regime at the intensity frontier, which is highly relevant also for the design of future multi-TeV lepton colliders. A transition from qualitative observational experiments to quantitative and high-statistics measurements can only be performed with large-scale collaborations and with systematic experimental programmes devoted to the optimisation of several aspects of these complex experiments, including detector developments, stability and tolerances studies, and laser technology.

Sarri, G. [Queen’s University Belfast (United King↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of SCALE Criticality and Sensitivity Calculations for Reflected HEU Cylinders [Slides]

The SCALE code package offers multiple nuclear data libraries supporting Monte Carlo transport, with sensitivity and uncertainty methods derived from MC transport solutions. Several libraries are multigroup, which introduce bias differing by system. Previous work has shown poor S/U results in several reflector materials: ICSBEP benchmark HMF-084 was selected to analyze biases and S/U method applicability to a variety of reflectors. Prior and ongoing work found inaccuracies in CSAS and TSUNAMI results, which were further investigated utilizing the HEU-MET-FAST-084 ICSBEP critical benchmark, chosen for its geometrical simplicity and variety of reflector materials. Perturbation of reflector thickness across various reflector materials allowed for an assortment of materials is to be tested swiftly for each sequence and method. Observation was an increasing bias of MG $k_{eff}$ relative to CE, in both direction and magnitude. IFP produced extremely reliable results. >85% of CLUTCH cases were found satisfactory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Event Horizon Telescope imaging of the archetypal blazar 3C 279 at an extreme 20 microarcsecond resolution

3C 279 is an archetypal blazar with a prominent radio jet that show broadband flux density variability across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. We use an ultra-high angular resolution technique – global Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at 1.3 mm (230 GHz) – to resolve the innermost jet of 3C 279 in order to study its fine-scale morphology close to the jet base where highly variable γ-ray emission is thought to originate, according to various models. The source was observed during four days in April 2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope at 230 GHz, including the phased Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), at an angular resolution of ∼20 μas (at a redshift of z = 0.536 this corresponds to ∼0.13 pc ∼ 1700 Schwarzschild radii with a black hole mass MBH = 8 × 108 M⊙). Imaging and model-fitting techniques were applied to the data to parameterize the fine-scale source structure and its variation. We find a multicomponent inner jet morphology with the northernmost component elongated perpendicular to the direction of the jet, as imaged at longer wavelengths. The elongated nuclear structure is consistent on all four observing days and across different imaging methods and model-fitting techniques, and therefore appears robust. Owing to its compactness and brightness, we associate the northern nuclear structure as the VLBI “core”. This morphology can be interpreted as either a broad resolved jet base or a spatially bent jet. We also find significant day-to-day variations in the closure phases, which appear most pronounced on the triangles with the longest baselines. Our analysis shows that this variation is related to a systematic change of the source structure. Two inner jet components move non-radially at apparent speeds of ∼15 c and ∼20 c (∼1.3 and ∼1.7 μas day−1, respectively), which more strongly supports the scenario of traveling shocks or instabilities in a bent, possibly rotating jet. The observed apparent speeds are also coincident with the 3C 279 large-scale jet kinematics observed at longer (cm) wavelengths, suggesting no significant jet acceleration between the 1.3 mm core and the outer jet. The intrinsic brightness temperature of the jet components are ≲1010 K, a magnitude or more lower than typical values seen at ≥7 mm wavelengths. The low brightness temperature and morphological complexity suggest that the core region of 3C 279 becomes optically thin at short (mm) wavelengths.Key words: galaxies: active / galaxies: jets / galaxies: individual: 3C 279 / techniques: interferometric⋆ The data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/A+A/640/A69 and at https://eventhorizontelescope.org/for-astronomers/data⋆⋆ Deceased.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multifrontal Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative matrix factorization (Nmf) is an important tool in high-performance large scale data analytics with applications ranging from community detection, recommender system, feature detection and linear and non-linear unmixing. While traditional Nmf works well when the data set is relatively dense, however, it may not extract sufficient structure when the data is extremely sparse. Specifically, traditional Nmf fails to exploit the structured sparsity of the large and sparse data sets resulting in dense factors. We propose a new algorithm for performing Nmf on sparse data that we call multifrontal Nmf (Mf-Nmf) since it borrows several ideas from the multifrontal method for unconstrained factorization (e.g. LU and QR). We also present an efficient shared memory parallel implementation of Mf-Nmf and discuss its performance and scalability. We conduct several experiments on synthetic and realworld datasets and demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm by comparing it against standard baselines. We obtain a speedup of 1.2x to 19.5x on 24 cores with an average speed up of 10.3x across all the real world datasets.

Sao, Piyush↗
DOE OSTI2023

Threshold resummation for computing large-x parton distribution through large-momentum effective theory

Parton distribution functions (PDFs) at large x are poorly constrained by high-energy experimental data, but extremely important for probing physics beyond standard model at colliders. We study the calculation of PDFs at large-x through large-momentum P z expansion of the lattice quasi PDFs. Similar to deep-inelastic scattering, there are two distinct perturbative scales in the threshold limit where the matching coefficient can be factorized into a space-like jet function at scale P z |1 – y| and a pair of heavy-light Sudakov form factors at scale P z . The matching formula allows us to derive a full renormalization group resummation of large threshold logarithms, and the result is consistent with the known calculation to the next-to-next to leading order (NNLO). This paves the way for direct large-x PDFs calculations in lattice QCD. As by-products, we find that the space-like jet function is related to a time-like version calculated previously through analytic continuation, and the heavy-light Sudakov form factor, calculated here to NNLO, is a universal object appearing as well in the large momentum expansion of quasi transverse-momentum-dependent PDFs and quasi wave-function amplitudes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) for collection of multivariate time series data: Applications to COVID-19 data

Time series anomaly detection is frequently used to identify extreme behaviors within a single time series. Identifying extreme trends in relation to a collection of other time series, on the other hand, is frequently of significant interest, such as in public health policy, social justice, and pandemic propagation. Using concepts from large deviations theory , we propose an algorithm that can scale to large collections of time series data. This paper expands on the LAD algorithm presented in Guggilam et al. (2022). The proposed algorithm is an online anomaly detection method for identifying anomalies in a collection of multivariate time series that takes advantage of the algorithm’s ability to scale to high-dimensional data. We show how the proposed Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) algorithm can be used to identify regions with anomalous trends in COVID-19 cases, deaths, biweekly growth rates, vaccinations, and fatality rates. Several of the observed anomalous trends are associated with regions that have demonstrated poor response to the COVID pandemic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °C air –1 , –0.033 m °C air –1 and –9.7 d °C air –1 , respectively). Furthermore, these impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing material modeling in hydrocodes using a concurrent finite-element and molecular dynamics multiscale framework

We present a multiscale simulation framework that couples the finite-element method with molecular dynamics. Bypassing traditional equations of state (EOS) by using in-line atomistic simulations, the method offers the advantage of incorporating detailed microscale physics not easily represented with coarse-grained models. Coupling consistency with the continuum code is ensured through the use of lifting and restriction operators, in line with heterogeneous multiscale methods. The concurrent continuum-atomistic framework is validated through comparison with experimental results and conventional EOS models, and demonstrated in a shock-driven hydrodynamic flow simulation under extreme conditions. We further evaluate the framework's usability by comparing it to state-of-the-art EOS models of deuterium. A computational performance study reveals that the atomistic EOS evaluation is a feasible alternative to conventional approaches, and demonstrates a weak scaling of 99% efficiency. These results highlight the framework's potential for large-scale multiscale modeling across a broad range of materials and conditions.

Computer science↗