The Impact of Atmospheric Modeling Errors on GRACE Estimates of Mass Loss in Greenland and Antarctica
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Ryan A. Hardy↗
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Results for “Error estimation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Estimation of random error statistics in high-resolution radiosondes, ERA-Interim, and COSMIC radio occultation soundings in the northeast Pacific Ocean during the MAGIC campaign
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sampling error study for rainfall estimate by satellite using a stochastic model
In a parameter study of satellite orbits, sampling errors of area-time averaged rain rate due to temporal sampling by satellites were estimated. The sampling characteristics were studied by accounting for the varying visiting intervals and varying fractions of averaging area on each visit as a function of the latitude of the grid box for a range of satellite orbital parameters. The sampling errors were estimated by a simple model based on the first-order Markov process of the time series of area averaged rain rates. For a satellite of nominal Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Thiele, 1987) carrying an ideal scanning microwave radiometer for precipitation measurements, it is found that sampling error would be about 8 to 12 pct of estimated monthly mean rates over a grid box of 5 X 5 degrees. It is suggested that an observation system based on a low inclination satellite combined with a sunsynchronous satellite simultaneously might be the best candidate for making precipitation measurements from space.
Shin, Kyung-Sup↗
A Nonintrusive Optical Approach to Characterize Heliostats in Utility-Scale Power Tower Plants: Camera Position Sensitivity Analysis
Optics plays a major role in the effectiveness of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The nonintrusive optical (NIO) approach developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory uses uncrewed aircraft system (UAS)-based imaging to survey heliostats in a commercial-scale power tower CSP plant and characterize their optical errors. The image processing algorithm uses photogrammetry to calculate the camera position for each image frame, and the accuracy of the estimated optical errors is highly sensitive to the calculated camera position accuracy. In this study, we simulate a series of case studies in python to examine the impact of different parameters of the sensitivity of the camera calculation, including the number of facet corners used as control points for the photogrammetric calculation, precision error in the detected pixel locations of the facet corners in the image, and precision error of the canting and mounting positions of the facets of the heliostat. The case studies consider heliostat geometry based on three commercial designs to serve as representative examples of different possible sizes of heliostats that the NIO method could be applied to. The results show that increasing the number of control points can improve accuracy for heliostats with many facets, pixel precision has a significantly larger impact on camera calculation accuracy than facet canting and mounting errors, and the camera distance and focal length must be chosen to ensure adequate pixel accuracy on the heliostat surface depending on the size of heliostat. In conclusion, based on the results, recommendations for the allowable values of each parameter are provided to achieve the required NIO optical error estimation accuracy depending on the size of heliostat.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Preliminary Error Budget and Performance Estimate
The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) study phase has resulted in a preliminary error budget and an estimate of the instrument performance. This paper will present the line-of-sight (LOS) Velocity Measurement Error Budget, the instrument Boresight Error Budget, and the predicted signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) performance. The measurement requirements and a preliminary design for the LAWS instrument are presented in a companion paper.
Kenyon, David L.↗
Adaptive estimation of quantum observables
The accurate estimation of quantum observables is a critical task in science. With progress on the hardware, measuring a quantum system will become increasingly demanding, particularly for variational protocols that require extensive sampling. Here, we introduce a measurement scheme that adaptively modifies the estimator based on previously obtained data. Our algorithm, which we call AEQuO, continuously monitors both the estimated average and the associated error of the considered observable, and determines the next measurement step based on this information. We allow both for overlap and non-bitwise commutation relations in the subsets of Pauli operators that are simultaneously probed, thereby maximizing the amount of gathered information. AEQuO comes in two variants: a greedy bucket-filling algorithm with good performance for small problem instances, and a machine learning-based algorithm with more favorable scaling for larger instances. The measurement configuration determined by these subroutines is further post-processed in order to lower the error on the estimator. We test our protocol on chemistry Hamiltonians, for which AEQuO provides error estimates that improve on all state-of-the-art methods based on various grouping techniques or randomized measurements, thus greatly lowering the toll of measurements in current and future quantum applications.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Filtering Methods for Error Reduction in Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Quaternion Star Trackers
Precision attitude determination for recent and planned space missions typically includes quaternion star trackers (ST) and a three-axis inertial reference unit (IRU). Sensor selection is based on estimates of knowledge accuracy attainable from a Kalman filter (KF), which provides the optimal solution for the case of linear dynamics with measurement and process errors characterized by random Gaussian noise with white spectrum. Non-Gaussian systematic errors in quaternion STs are often quite large and have an unpredictable time-varying nature, particularly when used in non-inertial pointing applications. Two filtering methods are proposed to reduce the attitude estimation error resulting from ST systematic errors, 1) extended Kalman filter (EKF) augmented with Markov states, 2) Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) with a periodic measurement model. Realistic assessments of the attitude estimation performance gains are demonstrated with both simulation and flight telemetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.
Calhoun, Philip C.↗
Satellite Sampling and Retrieval Errors in Regional Monthly Rain Estimates from TMI AMSR-E, SSM/I, AMSU-B and the TRMM PR
Passive and active microwave rain sensors onboard earth-orbiting satellites estimate monthly rainfall from the instantaneous rain statistics collected during satellite overpasses. It is well known that climate-scale rain estimates from meteorological satellites incur sampling errors resulting from the process of discrete temporal sampling and statistical averaging. Sampling and retrieval errors ultimately become entangled in the estimation of the mean monthly rain rate. The sampling component of the error budget effectively introduces statistical noise into climate-scale rain estimates that obscure the error component associated with the instantaneous rain retrieval. Estimating the accuracy of the retrievals on monthly scales therefore necessitates a decomposition of the total error budget into sampling and retrieval error quantities. This paper presents results from a statistical evaluation of the sampling and retrieval errors for five different space-borne rain sensors on board nine orbiting satellites. Using an error decomposition methodology developed by one of the authors, sampling and retrieval errors were estimated at 0.25 resolution within 150 km of ground-based weather radars located at Kwajalein, Marshall Islands and Melbourne, Florida. Error and bias statistics were calculated according to the land, ocean and coast classifications of the surface terrain mask developed for the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) rain algorithm. Variations in the comparative error statistics are attributed to various factors related to differences in the swath geometry of each rain sensor, the orbital and instrument characteristics of the satellite and the regional climatology. The most significant result from this study found that each of the satellites incurred negative longterm oceanic retrieval biases of 10 to 30%.
Fisher, Brad↗
Error Bounds for Dynamical Spectral Estimation
Dynamical spectral estimation is a well-established numerical approach for estimating eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Markov transition operator from trajectory data. Although the approach has been widely applied in biomolecular simulations, its error properties remain poorly understood. Here we analyze the error of a dynamical spectral estimation method called “the variational approach to conformational dynamics" (VAC). We bound the approximation error and estimation error for VAC estimates. Our analysis establishes VAC's convergence properties and suggests new strategies for tuning VAC to improve accuracy.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Adaptive Time Step Control for Multirate Infinitesimal Methods
Multirate methods have been used for decades to temporally evolve initial-value problems in which different components evolve on distinct time scales, and thus use of different step sizes for these components can result in increased computational efficiency. Generally, such methods select these different step sizes based on experimentation or stability considerations. For problems that evolve on a single time scale, adaptivity approaches that strive to control local temporal error are widely used to achieve numerical results of a desired accuracy with minimal computational effort, while alleviating the need for manual experimentation with different time step sizes. However, there is a notable gap in the publication record on the development of adaptive time step controllers for multirate methods. In this paper, we extend the single-rate controller work of Gustafsson [ACM Trans. Math. Software, 20 (1994), pp. 496-517] to the multirate method setting. Specifically, we develop controllers based on polynomial approximations to the principal error functions for both the "fast" and "slow" time scales within multirate infinitesimal (MRI) methods. We additionally investigate a variety of approaches for estimating the errors arising from each time scale within MRI methods. We then numerically evaluate the proposed multirate controllers and error estimation strategies on a range of multirate test problems, comparing their performance against an estimated optimal performance. Through this work, we combine the most performant of these approaches to arrive at a set of multirate adaptive time step controllers that robustly achieve desired solution accuracy with minimal computational effort.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Sensor Drift Estimation for Reactor Systems by Fusing Multiple Sensor Measurements
A nuclear power plant is instrumented with a variety of sensors that monitor its variables to estimate the state and initiate safety actions, if needed. We address the problem of estimating drifts or errors in sensor measurements due to factors such as calibration changes. We propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to generate an estimate of a sensor measurement, and its difference from an actual measurement provides an error estimate. We present two fusers based on the ensemble of trees and support vector machine that are trained using sensor measurements collected at an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor under no-drift conditions. We present error estimates for a differential pressure sensor of the heat exchanger of the primary coolant system, under twenty controlled scenarios using the test loop. Both positive and negative errors are captured by both methods in scenarios involving calibration drifts, blocking, air gap and electromagnetic interference. The root mean square errors of estimated drifts are typically within 2% percent of the maximum.
Rao, Nageswara↗
The effects of series truncation on estimates and the transformation of errors Semiannual status report
Taylor series truncation effects on estimation of error parameters in reliability testing
Source record↗
Optimized tuner selection for engine performance estimation
A methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. Theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values are derived at steady-state operating conditions, and the tuner selection routine is applied to minimize these values. The new methodology yields an improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy.
Simon, Donald L.↗
Measurements of the Downward Longwave Radiation Spectrum over the Antarctic Plateau and Comparisons with a Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model for Clear Skies
A 1-year field program was conducted at South Pole Station in 1992 to measure the downward infrared radiance spectrum at a resolution of 1/ cm over the spectral range 550-1667 cm-'. The atmosphere over the Antarctic Plateau is the coldest and driest on Earth, where in winter, surface temperatures average about -60 C, the total column water vapor is as low as 300 pm of precipitable water, and the clear-sky downward longwave flux is usually less than 80 W/sq m. Three clear-sky test cases are selected, one each for summer, winter, and spring, for which high- quality radiance data are available.as well as ancillary data to construct model atmospheres from radiosondes, ozonesondes, and other measurements. The model atmospheres are used in conjunction with the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) to compare model calculations with the spectral radiance measurements. The high-resolution calculations of LBLRTM (approx. = 0.001/ cm) are matched to the lower-resolution measurements (1/ cm) by adjusting their spectral resolution and by applying a correction for the finite field of view of the interferometer. In summer the uncertainties in temperature and water vapor profiles dominate the radiance error in the LBLRTM calculations. In winter the uncertainty in viewing zenith angle becomes important as well as the choice of atmospheric levels in the strong near-surface temperature inversion. The spectral radiance calculated for each of the three test cases generally agrees with that measured, to within twice the total estimated radiance error, thus validating LBLRTM to this level of accuracy for Antarctic conditions. However, the discrepancy exceeds twice the estimated error in the gaps between spectral lines in the region 1250-1500/ cm, where emission is dominated by the foreign-broadened water vapor continuum.
Walden, Von P.↗
An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation
State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).
Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
Algorithms for isolating worst case systematic data errors
Two separate algorithms are derived for testing filter sensitivity to systematic data errors. One algorithm provides the absolute minimum Euclidean norm data error for a given estimate component error. The second algorithm can be used to find the minimum norm data error which can be generated by restricted degree Legendre polynomials. A specific very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) baseline estimation is analyzed with the algorithm. It is found that the local vertical is the most sensitive component to error in the data space. The efficiency of a data error sequence linear in elevation angle is within 7% that of the absolute worst case sequence. Elevation angle dependent errors are explored and the special case of a mismodeled troposphere is treated.
Curkendall, D. W.↗
Sequential error detection for nonlinear estimators.
A method is presented for sequentially testing the consistency of actual and calculated error covariances in recursive nonlinear estimators, such as the extended Kalman filter. An equivalent simplified test is described briefly. The method is useful for linear filters as well, where inconsistencies may be caused by modeling inaccuracies.
Nahi, N. E.↗
Influence of Strain-Gage Balance Characteristics on the Precision Error of the Drag Coefficient
Improvements and results of a new method are presented that computes a pre-test estimate of the precision error of the drag coefficient of a wind tunnel model. The error estimate is defined as the part of the drag coefficient's precision error that is primarily associated with the precision error of the angle of attack measurement and physical characteristics of the chosen strain-gage balance. The method indirectly describes the precision error of the angle of attack measurement by using an assumed balance gage output variation of one microV/V. The physical characteristics of the balance, on the other hand, are described by partial derivatives of the axial and normal forces with respect to the strain-gage outputs. These derivatives can directly be obtained from the data reduction matrix of the balance. The precision error estimate itself is calculated by applying a simple explicit equation that uses the model reference area, the dynamic pressure, the angle of attack, the coefficients of the linear terms of the data reduction matrix, and the electrical output variation of one microvolt per volt as input. Precision errors at constant angle of attack may be visualized as contour plots by plotting them, for example, versus the Mach number and the total pressure. Characteristics of NASA's MC60E balance are used in combination with the reference area of a generic wind tunnel model in order to demonstrate that error estimates are independent of both the balance load format and the units chosen for the description of balance loads, model reference area, and the dynamic pressure. Finally, experimental data from a wind tunnel test of the Ames Check Standard Model in the NASA Ames 11-foot Transonic Wind Tunnel illustrates the application of the method to real-world test data.
precision error↗