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NASA NTRS1995

The Search for Life from Antarctica to Mars

Although the Viking results may indicate that Mars has no life today, the possibility exists that Mars may hold the best record of the events that led to the origin of life. There is direct geomorphological evidence that in the past Mars had large amounts of liquid water on its surface. Atmospheric models would suggest that this early period of hydrological activity was due to the presence of a thick atmosphere and the resulting warmer temperatures. From a biological perspective the existence of liquid water, by itself motivates the question of the origin of life on Mars. From studies of the Earth's earliest biosphere we know that by 3.5 Gyr. ago, life had originated on Earth and reached a fair degree of biological sophistication. Surface activity and erosion on Earth make it difficult to trace the history of life before the 3.5 Gyr timeframe. If Mars did maintain a clement environment for longer than it took for life to originate on Earth, then the question of the origin of life on Mars follows naturally. Human exploration of Mars will probably begin with a small base manned by a temporary crew, a necessary first start. But exploration of the entire planet win require a continued presence on the Martian surface and the development of a self sustaining community in which humans can live and work for very long periods of time. A permanent Mars research base can be compared to the permanent research bases which several nations maintain in Antarctica at the South Pole, the geomagnetic pole, and elsewhere. In the long run, a continued human presence on Mars will be t he most economical way to study that planet in detail. It is possible that at some time in the future we might recreate a habitable climate on Mars, returning it to the life-bearing state it may have enjoyed early in its history. Our studies of Mars are still in a preliminary state but everything we have learned suggests that it may be possible to restore Mars to a habitable climate.

McKay, Christopher P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Low-Cost Evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for Detection and Biophysical Characterization of Forest Logging in Amazonia (NCC5-481)

Major uncertainties exist regarding the rate and intensity of logging in tropical forests worldwide: these uncertainties severely limit economic, ecological, and biogeochemical analyses of these regions. Recent sawmill surveys in the Amazon region of Brazil show that the area logged is nearly equal to total area deforested annually, but conversion of survey data to forest area, forest structural damage, and biomass estimates requires multiple assumptions about logging practices. Remote sensing could provide an independent means to monitor logging activity and to estimate the biophysical consequences of this land use. Previous studies have demonstrated that the detection of logging in Amazon forests is difficult and no studies have developed either the quantitative physical basis or remote sensing approaches needed to estimate the effects of various logging regimes on forest structure. A major reason for these limitations has been a lack of sufficient, well-calibrated optical satellite data, which in turn, has impeded the development and use of physically-based, quantitative approaches for detection and structural characterization of forest logging regimes. We propose to use data from the EO-1 Hyperion imaging spectrometer to greatly increase our ability to estimate the presence and structural attributes of selective logging in the Amazon Basin. Our approach is based on four "biogeophysical indicators" not yet derived simultaneously from any satellite sensor: 1) green canopy leaf area index; 2) degree of shadowing; 3) presence of exposed soil and; 4) non-photosynthetic vegetation material. Airborne, field and modeling studies have shown that the optical reflectance continuum (400-2500 nm) contains sufficient information to derive estimates of each of these indicators. Our ongoing studies in the eastern Amazon basin also suggest that these four indicators are sensitive to logging intensity. Satellite-based estimates of these indicators should provide a means to quantify both the presence and degree of structural disturbance caused by various logging regimes. Our quantitative assessment of Hyperion hyperspectral and ALI multi-spectral data for the detection and structural characterization of selective logging in Amazonia will benefit from data collected through an ongoing project run by the Tropical Forest Foundation, within which we have developed a study of the canopy and landscape biophysics of conventional and reduced-impact logging. We will add to our base of forest structural information in concert with an EO-1 overpass. Using a photon transport model inversion technique that accounts for non-linear mixing of the four biogeophysical indicators, we will estimate these parameters across a gradient of selective logging intensity provided by conventional and reduced impact logging sites. We will also compare our physical ly-based approach to both conventional (e.g., NDVI) and novel (e.g., SWIR-channel) vegetation indices as well as to linear mixture modeling methods. We will cross-compare these approaches using Hyperion and ALI imagers to determine the strengths and limitations of these two sensors for applications of forest biophysics. This effort will yield the first physical ly-based, quantitative analysis of the detection and intensity of selective logging in Amazonia, comparing hyperspectral and improved multi-spectral approaches as well as inverse modeling, linear mixture modeling, and vegetation index techniques.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Multi-scale Approach to Urban Thermal Analysis

An environmental consequence of urbanization is the urban heat island effect, a situation where urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas. The urban heat island phenomenon results from the replacement of natural landscapes with impervious surfaces such as concrete and asphalt and is linked to adverse economic and environmental impacts. In order to better understand the urban microclimate, a greater understanding of the urban thermal pattern (UTP), including an analysis of the thermal properties of individual land covers, is needed. This study examines the UTP by means of thermal land cover response for the Salt Lake City, Utah, study area at two scales: 1) the community level, and 2) the regional or valleywide level. Airborne ATLAS (Advanced Thermal Land Applications Sensor) data, a high spatial resolution (10-meter) dataset appropriate for an environment containing a concentration of diverse land covers, are used for both land cover and thermal analysis at the community level. The ATLAS data consist of 15 channels covering the visible, near-IR, mid-IR and thermal-IR wavelengths. At the regional level Landsat TM data are used for land cover analysis while the ATLAS channel 13 data are used for the thermal analysis. Results show that a heat island is evident at both the community and the valleywide level where there is an abundance of impervious surfaces. ATLAS data perform well in community level studies in terms of land cover and thermal exchanges, but other, more coarse-resolution data sets are more appropriate for large-area thermal studies. Thermal response per land cover is consistent at both levels, which suggests potential for urban climate modeling at multiple scales.

Gluch, Renne↗

NASA NTRS2015

Open-Source Conceptual Sizing Models for the Hyperloop Passenger Pod

Hyperloop is a new mode of transportation proposed as an alternative to California's high speed rail project, with the intended benefits of higher performance at lower overall costs. It consists of a passenger pod traveling through a tube under a light vacuum and suspended on air bearings. The pod travels up to transonic speeds resulting in a 35 minute travel time between the intended route from Los Angeles and San Francisco. Of the two variants outlined, the smaller system includes a 1.1 meter tall passenger capsule traveling through a 2.2 meter tube at 700 miles per hour. The passenger pod features water-based heat exchangers as well as an on-board compression system that reduces the aerodynamic drag as it moves through the tube. Although the original proposal looks very promising, it assumes that tube and pod dimensions are independently sizable without fully acknowledging the constraints of the compressor system on the pod geometry. This work focuses on the aerodynamic and thermodynamic interactions between the two largest systems; the tube and the pod. Using open-source toolsets, a new sizing method is developed based on one-dimensional thermodynamic relationships that accounts for the strong interactions between these sub-systems. These additional considerations require a tube nearly twice the size originally considered and limit the maximum pod travel speed to about 620 miles per hour. Although the results indicate that Hyperloop will need to be larger and slightly slower than originally intended, the estimated travel time only increases by approximately five minutes, so the overall performance is not dramatically affected. In addition, the proposed on-board heat exchanger is not an ideal solution to achieve reasonable equilibrium air temperatures within the tube. Removal of this subsystem represents a potential reduction in weight, energy requirements and complexity of the pod. In light of these finding, the core concept still remains a compelling possibility, although additional engineering and economic analyses are markedly necessary before a more complete design can be developed.

design analysis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2009

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Funk, Chris C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time.This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance.TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Science Data Processing↗

NASA NTRS1989

High speed commercial transport fuels considerations and research needs

NASA is currently evaluating the potential of incorporating High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft in the commercial fleet in the beginning of the 21st century. NASA sponsored HSCT enabling studies currently underway with airframers and engine manufacturers, are addressing a broad range of technical, environmental, economic, and related issues. Supersonic cruise speeds for these aircraft were originally focused in the Mach 2 to 5 range. At these flight speeds, both jet fuels and liquid methane were considered potential fuel candidates. For the year 2000 to 2010, cruise Mach numbers of 2 to 3+ are projected for aircraft fuel with thermally stable liquid jet fuels. For 2015 and beyond, liquid methane fueled aircraft cruising at Mach numbers of 4+ may be viable candidates. Operation at supersonic speeds will be much more severe than those encountered at subsonic flight. One of the most critical problems is the potential deterioration of the fuel due to the high temperature environment. HSCT fuels will not only be required to provide the energy necessary for flight, but will also be subject to aerodynamic heating and, will be required to serve as the primary heat sink for cooling the engine and airframe. To define fuel problems for high speed flight, a fuels workshop was conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center. The purpose of the workshop was to gather experts on aviation fuels, airframe fuel systems, airport infrastructure, and combustion systems to discuss high speed fuel alternatives, fuel supply scenarios, increased thermal stability approaches and measurements, safety considerations, and to provide directional guidance for future R and D efforts. Subsequent follow-up studies defined airport infrastructure impacts of high speed fuel candidates. The results of these activities are summarized. In addition, an initial case study using modified in-house refinery simulation model Gordian code (1) is briefly discussed. This code can be used to simulate different types of refineries, emphasizing jet fuel production and relative cost factors.

Lee, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Results of Evaluation of Solar Thermal Propulsion

The solar thermal propulsion evaluation reported here relied on prior research for all information on solar thermal propulsion technology and performance. Sources included personal contacts with experts in the field in addition to published reports and papers. Mission performance models were created based on this information in order to estimate performance and mass characteristics of solar thermal propulsion systems. Mission analysis was performed for a set of reference missions to assess the capabilities and benefits of solar thermal propulsion in comparison with alternative in-space propulsion systems such as chemical and electric propulsion. Mission analysis included estimation of delta V requirements as well as payload capabilities for a range of missions. Launch requirements and costs, and integration into launch vehicles, were also considered. The mission set included representative robotic scientific missions, and potential future NASA human missions beyond low Earth orbit. Commercial communications satellite delivery missions were also included, because if STP technology were selected for that application, frequent use is implied and this would help amortize costs for technology advancement and systems development. A C3 Topper mission was defined, calling for a relatively small STP. The application is to augment the launch energy (C3) available from launch vehicles with their built-in upper stages. Payload masses were obtained from references where available. The communications satellite masses represent the range of payload capabilities for the Delta IV Medium and/or Atlas launch vehicle family. Results indicated that STP could improve payload capability over current systems, but that this advantage cannot be realized except in a few cases because of payload fairing volume limitations on current launch vehicles. It was also found that acquiring a more capable (existing) launch vehicle, rather than adding an STP stage, is the most economical in most cases.

Woodcock, Gordon↗

NASA NTRS2021

Thermoelectric System Economics - The Apex: New Paradigms in Manufacturing and Interface Performance Relationships Driving System Cost Optimizations

Thermoelectric energy recovery systems require cost-optimized designs with high thermal and thermoelectric (TE) performance to surmount common commercialization barriers controlling the acceptance of thermoelectric generator (TEG) systems. Recent work has addressed this requirement with new analytic tools and paradigms that allow integrated TEG cost-performance analysis and optimization. New work herein has identified the existence of optimized TE element design (i.e., TE element length) for minimizing TEG cost and provides design guidelines associated with critical thermal and electrical contact resistance effects and TE manufacturing sensitivities. Once optimum hot-side heat flux criteria are satisfied, this work highlights the tradeoffs between interface resistance effects and manufacturing cost effects in determining optimum-cost TE element lengths, and then quantifies the increase in optimum-cost TE lengths as manufacturing costs become more sensitive to TE element lengths. Optimized TE element design criteria and key non-dimensional design parameters (i.e., [𝐶′′′LTE/𝐶′′], [TE/con], [con/(TE,aveLTE)]) driving the design are presented and explained showing the interdependencies between manufacturing cost parameters and thermal and electrical interface impacts on integrated TE cost-performance analysis and design. Comprehensive TEG system cost-performance relationships clearly demonstrate the two parameters that most greatly impact the TEG system cost are heat exchanger costs ($/(W/K)) and TE hot side heat flux. Reducing heat exhanger cost from $1/(W/K) to $0.5/(W/K) can decrease TEG system cost by $2/W to $4/W depending on TE hot side heat fluxes from 4-10 W/cm2. The impact of TE hot side heat flux on TEG system cost is larger; reducing TE system cost by factors of 2-4 as TE hot side heat flux increases from 4 W/cm2 to high levels around 18 W/cm2. The levels of thermal contact resistance and electrical contact resistance required to even approach the critical TEG system cost level of $1/W are characterized by con = 1.0 x 10-10 -m2 and r = 0.1, respectively. This not only lowers TEG costs, but it also makes the TEG system costs less sensitive to TE manufacturing dependences on TE element length. New design paradigms and relationships create holistic, integrated TE performance-cost models that enhance understanding of crucial interrelationships between component costs, TE design parameters and material properties, heat exchanger design parameters, interfacial heat flux, and now thermal and electrical interface effects in minimizing TEG system costs.

Hendricks, Terry J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative: Ensuring a Cohesive, Executable Strategy for Technology Development

Establishing a sustainable human presence on the Moon allows NASA to develop and test new approaches, technologies, and systems that will enable us to function in other, more challenging environments. The Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) was established in 2019 and has evolved into a key agency asset to spur technology development and provide risk reduction for lunar surface system development and flight demonstrations. LSII coordinates activities implemented through a combination of in-house activities, competitive programs, and public-private partnerships to create transformative technologies needed for lunar surface exploration. This paper will outline the LSII model used to develop a technology pipeline that will retire the primary technology hurdles in six capability areas. In-situ resource utilization technologies for collecting, processing, storing, and using material found or manufactured on the Moon. Surface power technologies that provide the capability for sustainable, continuous power throughout the day and night for lunar missions. Dust mitigation strategies that diminish lunar dust hazards on lunar surface systems such as cameras, solar panels, space suits, habitats, and instrumentation. Extreme environments technologies that enable systems to operate throughout the full range of lunar surface conditions, including lunar noon (up to 150 at the equator), night (down to - 180 at the equator), multiple day/night cycles, and in permanently shadowed regions (down to -250). Extreme access technologies that enable humans or robotic systems to access, navigate, and explore previously inaccessible lunar surface or subsurface areas. Excavation and construction technologies that will allow affordable, autonomous manufacturing or construction. We outline key results, including milestones and achievements related to the capability areas and outcomes from partnerships with the commercial sector. A key tenet of the LSII is the Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), a collaboration across industry, academia, and government to successfully develop the transformative capabilities for lunar surface exploration. LSIC provides a forum for NASA to communicate technological requirements, needs, and opportunities and for the community to share existing capabilities and identify critical gaps with NASA. By working side by side with commercial enterprises and our international partners, NASA is able to combine the knowledge and expertise needed to explore the lunar surface and make technical advances that will feed technological and economic growth. Since its inception, LSII has engaged over 600 organizations across the United States and 46 countries to shape the technologies and systems needed to explore the lunar surface and stimulate a lunar surface economy.

lunar, lunar surface, technology development, ISRU↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative: Ensuring a Cohesive, Executable Strategy for Technology

Lunar↗

NASA NTRS2018

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗

NASA NTRS2016

TAT-C: A Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations

Under a changing technological and economic environment, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA Earth Science missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: Which type of constellations should be chosen? How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI and formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator, which in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules generates multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. UI will include Graphical, Command Line and Application Programmer Interfaces to respond to the demands of various levels of users expertise. Science inputs are grouped into various mission concepts, satellite specifications, and payload specifications, while science outputs are grouped into several types of metrics - spatial, temporal, angular and radiometric. Orbit Coverage leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data that are passed to Reduction Metrics. Then, for each architecture design, Cost Risk will provide estimates of the cost and life cycle cost as well as technical and cost risk of the proposed mission. Additionally, the Knowledge Base module is a centralized store of structured data readable by humans and machines. It will support both TAT-C analysis when composing new mission concepts from existing model inputs, and TAT-C exploration when discovering new mission concepts by querying previous results.

Science Data Processing↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Expert System-Driven Method for Parametric Trajectory Optimization During Conceptual Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle cost. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult in both cost and schedule to enact. The current capability-based paradigm, which has emerged because of the constrained economic environment, calls for the infusion of knowledge usually acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bringing knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture yet little of the information required to successfully optimize a trajectory is known early in the design phase. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. When these obstacles are coupled with the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, expert trajectory analysts are required to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. Over the course of this paper, the authors discuss a methodology developed at NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office to address these issues. The methodology is two-fold: first, capture the heuristics developed by human analysts over their many years of experience; and secondly, leverage the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously and therefore enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre- conceptual and conceptual phases of design. This methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, which enables trajectory design space visualization and parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be available when early design decisions are being made.

Dees, Patrick D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Vision and Roadmap for Increasing User Autonomy in Flight Operations in the National Airspace

The purpose of Air Transportation is to move people and cargo safely, efficiently and swiftly to their destinations. The companies and individuals who use aircraft for this purpose, the airspace users, desire to operate their aircraft according to a dynamically optimized business trajectory for their specific mission and operational business model. In current operations, the dynamic optimization of business trajectories is limited by constraints built into operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) for reasons of safety and operational needs of the air navigation service providers. NASA has been developing and testing means to overcome many of these constraints and permit operations to be conducted closer to the airspace user's changing business trajectory as conditions unfold before and during the flight. A roadmap of logical steps progressing toward increased user autonomy is proposed, beginning with NASA's Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept that enables flight crews to make informed, deconflicted flight-optimization requests to air traffic control. These steps include the use of data communications for route change requests and approvals, integration with time-based arrival flow management processes under development by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), increased user authority for defining and modifying downstream, strategic portions of the trajectory, and ultimately application of self-separation. This progression takes advantage of existing FAA NextGen programs and RTCA standards development, and it is designed to minimize the number of hardware upgrades required of airspace users to take advantage of these advanced capabilities to achieve dynamically optimized business trajectories in NAS operations. The roadmap is designed to provide operational benefits to first adopters so that investment decisions do not depend upon a large segment of the user community becoming equipped before benefits can be realized. The issues of equipment certification and operational approval of new procedures are addressed in a way that minimizes their impact on the transition by deferring a change in the assignment of separation responsibility until a large body of operational data is available to support the safety case for this change in the last roadmap step.This paper will relate the roadmap steps to ongoing activities to clarify the economics-based transition to these technologies for operational use.

Cotton, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-speed Commercial Aircraft - Final Report

SpaceWorks has concluded a 9-month research and development project aimed at addressing key questions in NASA’s effort to anticipate, understand, and ultimately support the emerging high-speed commercial flight market. The current project is a continuation of the Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-Speed Commercial Aircraft1 , which is a follow-on to a 2021 study led by Deloitte and SpaceWorks entitled Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study2 . Based in part on the recommendations of these prior studies, the objectives of this current effort were to expand the trade space to include Mach 1.5 aircraft and conduct additional trade studies. These included utilizing tech stops to extend serviceable range between city pairs, mixed aircraft fleets based on market size, flight scheduling to maximize value of the travel opportunity, and scenarios with multiple service operators. Additionally, SpaceWorks conducted new market surveys and research to update air passengers’ willingness-to-pay for highspeed flights given the changes in macroeconomic conditions since the start of the Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study with Deloitte. Ultimately, the new data and capability to evaluate all the trade studies were implemented in a new simulation environment called MIDAS (Multi-market Integrated Dynamic Aerospace Simulation). This sophisticated tool, implemented using AnyLogic software, utilizes agent-based and discrete event simulation (DES) techniques to provide highly detailed analysis and assessment of the high-speed aircraft market problem.

high-speed↗