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Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management - 12097

The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation's nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM 'owns' a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors. Each contaminated building, land area and waste stream is tracked from cradle to grave, and all of the linkages affecting different waste streams are captured. The progression of the activities is fully dynamic, reflecting DOE-EM's prioritization approaches, precedence requirements, available funding, and the consequences of risks and uncertainties. The top level of PRISM is the end-user interface that allows rapid evaluation of alternative scenarios and viewing the results in a variety of useful ways. PRISM is a fully probabilistic model, allowing the user to specify uncertainties in input data (such as the magnitude of an existing groundwater plume, or the total cost to complete a planned activity) as well as specific risk events that might occur. PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures. The PRISM model demonstrates how EM can evaluate a portfolio of ELOs, and transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, utilizing different strategic approaches. There are many types of ELOs - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. This scope of work for the PRISM process and the development of a dynamic simulation model are a logical extension of the GoldSim simulation software used by the OCRWM to assess the long-term performance for the Yucca Mountain Project and by NNSA to assess project risk at its sites. Systems integration modeling will promote better understanding of all project risks, technical and nontechnical, and more defensible decision-making for complex projects with significant uncertainties. It can provide effective visual communication and rapid adaptation during interactions with stakeholders (Administration, Congress, State, Local, and NGO). It will also allow rapid assessment of alternative management approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Virginia Solar Pathways Project: Economic Study of Utility-Administered Solar Programs: Soft Costs, Community Solar, and Tax Normalization Considerations

This report presents economic considerations for solar development in support of the Virginia Solar Pathways Project (VSPP), an effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) SunShot Initiative that seeks to develop a collaborative utility-administered solar strategy for the Commonwealth of Virginia. The results presented are intended to be considered alongside the results of other studies conducted under the VSPP that evaluate the impacts of solar energy on the electric distribution, transmission, and generation systems in Virginia.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SU-E-T-586: Optimal Determination of Tolerance Level for Radiation Dose Delivery Verification in An in Vivo Dosimetry System

Purpose: To statistically determine the optimal tolerance level in the verification of delivery dose compared to the planned dose in an in vivo dosimetry system in radiotherapy. Methods: The LANDAUER MicroSTARii dosimetry system with screened nanoDots (optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters) was used for in vivo dose measurements. Ideally, the measured dose should match with the planned dose and falls within a normal distribution. Any deviation from the normal distribution may be redeemed as a mismatch, therefore a potential sign of the dose misadministration. Randomly mis-positioned nanoDots can yield a continuum background distribution. A percentage difference of the measured dose to its corresponding planned dose (ΔD) can be used to analyze combined data sets for different patients. A model of a Gaussian plus a flat function was used to fit the ΔD distribution. Results: Total 434 nanoDot measurements for breast cancer patients were collected across a period of three months. The fit yields a Gaussian mean of 2.9% and a standard deviation (SD) of 5.3%. The observed shift of the mean from zero is attributed to the machine output bias and calibration of the dosimetry system. A pass interval of −2SD to +2SD was applied and a mismatch background was estimated to be 4.8%. With such a tolerance level, one can expect that 99.99% of patients should pass the verification and at most 0.011% might have a potential dose misadministration that may not be detected after 3 times of repeated measurements. After implementation, a number of new start breast cancer patients were monitored and the measured pass rate is consistent with the model prediction. Conclusion: It is feasible to implement an optimal tolerance level in order to maintain a low limit of potential dose misadministration while still to keep a relatively high pass rate in radiotherapy delivery verification.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Development of a Fleet-Level Human Factors Engineering Program to Support the Digital Modernization of Multiple Turbine Control Systems

A number of years ago, Duke Energy and the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) entered into a collaboration to support Duke’s digital upgrade activities for the main control rooms at three of their commercial nuclear power stations. The collaboration specifically focused on the human factors engineering (HFE) aspects of Duke’s plans to upgrade the legacy turbine control systems (TCS) at their Brunswick, Robinson, and Harris plants. This TSC upgrade involved installing a common digital control system (DCS), or distributed instrumentation and control (I&C) system platform, which multiple digital plant control systems can be integrated onto as the control rooms are modernized over time. Given the breadth and depth of the scope of this upgrade, DOE researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) with expertise in human factors collaborated with Duke throughout the entire HFE life cycle to help ensure the upgrade was performed in a manner consistent with regulatory human factors review criteria, such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (NUREG 0711, 2012). This paper describes the HFE researchers performed through the early and middle phases of these TCS upgrades. Specific HFE activities include: 1) the development of a human factors program management plan, 2) performing an operational experience review, 3) evaluating the design human system interface while it was still in the early stages of development, and 4) developing a framework to help map these HFE activities to NUREG-0711 to help understand and catalog the value of different types and phases of human performance data collection. These four HFE activities are described in more detail below.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Thermal and Deposition Modeling of the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration

This report provides initial thermal and deposition modeling results of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage system planned for use in the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration (CDFD). The goal of the CDFD testing is to collect deposition measurements on the surface of the dry shielded canister (DSC) to aid in chloride-induced stress corrosion crack (CISCC) research. Ideally this testing will occur in a marine coastal environment but at the time of this report no official site has been selected. The CDFD will use the NUHOMS ® Advanced Horizontal Storage Module – High Seismic (AHSM-HS) with a 32PTH2 canister. The SNF assemblies will be replaced with electrical heaters. Canisters are currently being outfitted with these heaters and tested at Sandia National Laboratory (SNL). Thermal modeling was conducted to ensure the electrical heaters were representative of the temperature distribution found within a storage system with SNF. Deposition models were built to evaluate contaminant deposition on SNF canisters. The CDFD testing will help to validate these models, which will then be used to plan and inform on-site test programs and predictive models for the timing and occurrence of canister CISCC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Forward treatment planning for modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT) employing Monte Carlo methods

Purpose: This paper describes the development of a forward planning process for modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT). The approach is based on a previously developed electron beam model used to calculate dose distributions of electron beams shaped by a photon multi leaf collimator (pMLC). Methods: As the electron beam model has already been implemented into the Swiss Monte Carlo Plan environment, the Eclipse treatment planning system (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) can be included in the planning process for MERT. In a first step, CT data are imported into Eclipse and a pMLC shaped electron beam is set up. This initial electron beam is then divided into segments, with the electron energy in each segment chosen according to the distal depth of the planning target volume (PTV) in beam direction. In order to improve the homogeneity of the dose distribution in the PTV, a feathering process (Gaussian edge feathering) is launched, which results in a number of feathered segments. For each of these segments a dose calculation is performed employing the in-house developed electron beam model along with the macro Monte Carlo dose calculation algorithm. Finally, an automated weight optimization of all segments is carried out and the total dose distribution is read back into Eclipse for display and evaluation. One academic and two clinical situations are investigated for possible benefits of MERT treatment compared to standard treatments performed in our clinics and treatment with a bolus electron conformal (BolusECT) method. Results: The MERT treatment plan of the academic case was superior to the standard single segment electron treatment plan in terms of organs at risk (OAR) sparing. Further, a comparison between an unfeathered and a feathered MERT plan showed better PTV coverage and homogeneity for the feathered plan, with V{sub 95%} increased from 90% to 96% and V{sub 107%} decreased from 8% to nearly 0%. For a clinical breast boost irradiation, the MERT plan led to a similar homogeneity in the PTV compared to the standard treatment plan while the mean body dose was lower for the MERT plan. Regarding the second clinical case, a whole breast treatment, MERT resulted in a reduction of the lung volume receiving more than 45% of the prescribed dose when compared to the standard plan. On the other hand, the MERT plan leads to a larger low-dose lung volume and a degraded dose homogeneity in the PTV. For the clinical cases evaluated in this work, treatment plans using the BolusECT technique resulted in a more homogenous PTV and CTV coverage but higher doses to the OARs than the MERT plans. Conclusions: MERT treatments were successfully planned for phantom and clinical cases, applying a newly developed intuitive and efficient forward planning strategy that employs a MC based electron beam model for pMLC shaped electron beams. It is shown that MERT can lead to a dose reduction in OARs compared to other methods. The process of feathering MERT segments results in an improvement of the dose homogeneity in the PTV.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Preparing Distribution Utilities for the Future - Unlocking Demand-Side Management Potential: A Novel Analytical Framework

The balance of supply and demand in the power systems has traditionally been served solely through generation and network capacity planning and operations. However, with increased requirements for flexibility due to the uptake in variable renewable generation sources such as wind and solar there is a need to increased demand-side flexibility. In addition, there are increased communications and flexibility capabilities emerging on the demand-side from the adoption of advanced metering infrastructures and smart meter deployment and intelligent loads such as smart thermostats and schedulable white goods (e.g. dishwashers and washing machines). Unlocking demand-side flexibility can bring system benefits from peak load reduction bringing about generation capacity and network upgrade deferral, to reducing demand and more efficient utilization of generation and network capacity. Unlocking demand-side flexibility is an evolving process for utilities and solutions must be tailored to each specific customer group. Demand-side management (DSM) is a broad set of tools that can include demand response (both dispatchable and non-dispatchable), energy efficiency and distributed energy resources and demand-side technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with BSES Rajdhani Power Ltd. (BRPL) and Deloitte, examined the potential of DSM in BRPL’s service territory, developing detailed information on customer classes and willingness to participate in DSM. The study developed modeling frameworks for load analysis and the analysis tools to assess the potential of time-of-use tariffs in motivating customers to reduce their peak period energy consumption. The study shows that BRPL customers, specifically their domestic customers, are willing to participate in DSM programs and that time-of-use pricing can help BRPL reduce their peak demand and help unlock demand-side flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Real-Time Rover Executive based On Model-Based Reactive Planning

This paper reports on the experimental verification of the ability of IDEA (Intelligent Distributed Execution Architecture) effectively operate at multiple levels of abstraction in an autonomous control system. The basic hypothesis of IDEA is that a large control system can be structured as a collection of interacting control agents, each organized around the same fundamental structure. Two IDEA agents, a system-level agent and a mission-level agent, are designed and implemented to autonomously control the K9 rover in real-time. The system is evaluated in the scenario where the rover must acquire images from a specified set of locations. The IDEA agents are responsible for enabling the rover to achieve its goals while monitoring the execution and safety of the rover and recovering from dangerous states when necessary. Experiments carried out both in simulation and on the physical rover, produced highly promising results.

Bias, M. Bernardine↗

Joint Electricity and Natural Gas Transmission Planning with Endogenous Market Feedbacks

Recent trends in gas-fired power plant installation has increased the connections between the electric power and natural gas industries. Despite these dependencies, both industries must meet commercial, political, operational and technical requirements that often force the industries to plan and operate in isolation. As a result, undesired situations may arise, such as those experienced by both systems during the winter of 2013/2014 in the northeastern United States. In this work, we consider the technical challenges and present a Combined Electricity and Gas Expansion (CEGE) planning model. The CEGE model minimizes the cost of meeting gas and electricity demand during high stress conditions and introduces an elasticity model for analysis of gas-price volatility caused by congestion. The underlying mathematical formulation considers recent advances in convex approximations to make the problem computationally tractable when applied to large-scale CEGE instances. We conduct an indepth analysis on integrated test systems that include the New England area.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A Primer on FERC Order No. 2222: Insights for International Power Systems

The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order No. 2222 is heralded as a landmark rule on distributed energy resources (DER). Issued in September 2020, it is specifically designed for organized wholesale power markets. The rule is nonbinding for utilities that have not chosen to join an organized wholesale power market. This primer, which analyzes the order, focuses on potential insights for similar changes in the international power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy Systems Integration: NREL + Advanced Energy (Fact Sheet)

This fact sheet describes the collaboration between NREL and Advanced Energy Industries at the ESIF to test its advanced photovoltaic inverter technology with the ESIF's power hardware-in-the-loop system and megawatt-scale grid simulators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Place-Based Energy Transitions

To move from ambitions to actions, communities need in-depth energy-sector expertise and insight. As a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) research lab, NREL offers unbiased, best-in-class analysis and modeling capabilities supported by decades of scientific and applied research, expertise, and partnerships. This presentation highlights how NREL illuminates pathways to clean, affordable, equitable, secure, and resilient energy systems.

communities↗

Is It Possible to Distinguish Between Dust and Salt Aerosol Over Waters with Unknown Chlorophyll Concentrations Using Spectral Remote Sensing?

Atmospheric aerosol has uncertain impacts on the global climate system, as well as on atmospheric and bio-geo-chemical processes of regional and local scales. EOS-MODIS is one example of a satellite sensor designed to improve understanding of the aerosols' type, size and distribution at all temporal and spatial scales. Ocean scientists also plan to use data from EOS-MODIS to assess the temporal and spatial coverage of in-water chlorophyll. MODIS is the first sensor planned to observe the combined ocean-atmosphere system with a wide spectral range (from 410 to 2200 nm). Dust aerosol and salt aerosol have similar spectral signals for wavelengths longer than 550 nm, but because dust selectively absorbs blue light, they have divergent signals in the blue wavelength regions (412 to 490 nm). Chlorophyll also selectively absorbs blue radiation, so that varying chlorophyll concentrations produces a highly varying signal in the blue regions, but less variability in the green, and almost no signal in the red to mid-infrared regions. Thus, theoretically, it may be difficult to differentiate dust and salt in the presence of unknown chlorophyll in the ocean. This study attempts to address the cases in which aerosol and chlorophyll signals can and cannot be separated. For the aerosol spectra, we use the aerosol lookup table from the operational MODIS aerosol-over-ocean algorithm, and for chlorophyll spectra, we use the SeaBAM data set (created for SeaWiFS). We compare the signals using Principal Component Analysis and attempt to retrieve both chlorophyll and aerosol properties using a variant of the operational MODIS aerosol-over-ocean algorithm. Results show that for small optical depths, less than 0.5, it is not possible to differentiate between dust and salt and to determine the chlorophyll concentration at the same time. For larger aerosol optical depths, the chlorophyll signals are comparatively insignificant, and we can hope to distinguish between dust and salt.

Levy, R. C.↗

Coordinating complex decision support activities across distributed applications

Knowledge-based technologies have been applied successfully to automate planning and scheduling in many problem domains. Automation of decision support can be increased further by integrating task-specific applications with supporting database systems, and by coordinating interactions between such tools to facilitate collaborative activities. Unfortunately, the technical obstacles that must be overcome to achieve this vision of transparent, cooperative problem-solving are daunting. Intelligent decision support tools are typically developed for standalone use, rely on incompatible, task-specific representational models and application programming interfaces (API's), and run on heterogeneous computing platforms. Getting such applications to interact freely calls for platform independent capabilities for distributed communication, as well as tools for mapping information across disparate representations. Symbiotics is developing a layered set of software tools (called NetWorks! for integrating and coordinating heterogeneous distributed applications. he top layer of tools consists of an extensible set of generic, programmable coordination services. Developers access these services via high-level API's to implement the desired interactions between distributed applications.

Adler, Richard M.↗

A Vehicle-to-Grid planning framework incorporating electric vehicle user equilibrium and distribution network flexibility enhancement

The rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, coupled with advancements in charging technologies, emphasizes the critical necessity for expanding EV recharging infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Distribution Network (DN) encounters escalating challenges in meeting charging demand during peak traffic periods. Consequently, there is a mounting demand for the deployment of innovative Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies to augment the DN’s flexibility in power dispatch and alleviate travel costs for EV users. Hence, this paper proposes an EV-user-equilibrium-(UE)-constrained V2G planning framework that enhances flexibility in the DN. The framework aims to ascertain the optimal placement and capacity of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and V2G charging piles within the Transportation Network (TN). It takes into account the equilibrium condition stemming from competitive EV charging and routing behaviors alongside the optimal expansion of DN energy resources to accommodate the electricity supplied by the V2G piles. This study commences by analyzing EV drivers’ travel decisions, considering the influence of charging and V2G pile locations and sizes. Subsequently, we tackle the Traffic Assignment Problem with User Equilibrium (TAP-UE) model to characterize the steady-state traffic flow distribution of EVs. Following this, we formulate the optimization model for the Coordinated Power and Transportation Network (CPTN), which encompasses the optimal expansion of DN facilities and traffic flow regulation under UE conditions. To mitigate the computational complexity associated with the V2G planning model, we introduce a series of linearization methods to obtain a manageable Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution. Finally, to validate the efficacy of our proposed planning framework, we apply it to two test systems, including a real-world case study. Through these case studies, we explore the necessity and potential benefits of V2G technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Novel Approach to Postmastectomy Radiation Therapy Using Scanned Proton Beams

Purpose: Postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT), currently offered at Massachusetts General Hospital, uses proton pencil beam scanning (PBS) with intensity modulation, achieving complete target coverage of the chest wall and all nodal regions and reduced dose to the cardiac structures. This work presents the current methodology for such treatment and the ongoing effort for its improvements. Methods and Materials: A single PBS field is optimized to ensure appropriate target coverage and heart/lung sparing, using an in–house-developed proton planning system with the capability of multicriteria optimization. The dose to the chest wall skin is controlled as a separate objective in the optimization. Surface imaging is used for setup because it is a suitable surrogate for superficial target volumes. In order to minimize the effect of beam range uncertainties, the relative proton stopping power ratio of the material in breast implants was determined through separate measurements. Phantom measurements were also made to validate the accuracy of skin dose calculation in the treatment planning system. Additionally, the treatment planning robustness was evaluated relative to setup perturbations and patient breathing motion. Results: PBS PMRT planning resulted in appropriate target coverage and organ sparing, comparable to treatments by passive scattering (PS) beams but much improved in nodal coverage and cardiac sparing compared to conventional treatments by photon/electron beams. The overall treatment time was much shorter than PS and also shorter than conventional photon/electron treatment. The accuracy of the skin dose calculation by the planning system was within ±2%. The treatment was shown to be adequately robust relative to both setup uncertainties and patient breathing motion, resulting in clinically satisfying dose distributions. Conclusions: More than 25 PMRT patients have been successfully treated at Massachusetts General Hospital by using single-PBS fields. The methodology and robustness of both the setup and the treatment have been discussed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Impact of High Penetration Distributed Energy Resources on the Bulk Electric System

The growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), mostly generation using intermittent renewable energy sources, along with the retirement of central generation (mostly conventional power plants using fossil-fuel-based resources) has implications for the steady-state and dynamic performance of the bulk electric system (BES). Among the DERs connected to the distribution system, photovoltaic (PV) systems are the most prevalent and have been installed at an increasing rate. Until recently, the penetration levels of DERs have not been high enough to create significant impacts on the reliability and security of power system operation. However, in recent years, the penetration levels of DERs have risen to a level that their impacts on the bulk electric system should be considered in a detailed fashion in planning and operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗