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At least 973 records · Page 54

Sources of Variability in the Stratospheric Column of Nitrogen Dioxide

Instruments such as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME, on the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2), launched 1995), the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY, on ENVISAT, to be launched July 2001) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI on EOS Aura, to be launched 2003) make measurements of the total column of NO2. There is interest in separating the stratospheric and tropospheric contributions to the column, as the tropospheric column provides a measure of pollution. We are using a 3D chemistry and transport model driven by winds from the Goddard Space Flight Center Data Assimilation System to examine variability in the stratospheric NO2 column. Model results for NOx = NO + NO2 + 2N2O5 will be shown to compare well with sunset observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, and to exhibit similar temporal and spatial dependence. Partitioning between NO, NO2, and N2O5 is also shown to compare well with observations. This good agreement supports the use of simulated fields in the stratosphere to derive the tropospheric column from the total column. Preliminary comparisons of the tropospheric column with model simulations for the troposphere will also be shown.

Douglass, Anne↗

Correlation of turbulent trailing vortex decay data

A correlation function, derived on the basis of self-similar variable eddy-viscosity decay, is introduced and utilized to correlate aircraft trailing vortex velocity data from ground and flight experiments. The correlation function collapses maximum tangential velocity data from scale-model and flight tests to a single curve. The resulting curve clearly shows both the inviscid plateau and the downstream decay regions. A comparison between experimental data and numerical solution shows closer agreement with the variable eddy viscosity solution than the constant viscosity analytical solution.

Iversen, J. D.↗

A comparison between Nimbus 5 THIR and ITPR temperatures and derived winds with rawinsonde data obtained in the AVE II experiment

During the second Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE II), atmospheric temperature profiles were computed from Nimbus 5 data, which comprised ITPR, NEMS, and SCR measurements. Rawinsonde data were obtained from NWS stations in the AVE II network and processed for each pressure contact; the soundings closest in space and time were interpolated to the Nimbus 5 sounding points for comparison purposes. Cross sections of thermal and geostrophic winds were computed from satellite-derived cross sections of temperature along the Nimbus orbital track.

Arnold, J. E.↗

Calibration or inverse regression: Which is appropriate for crop surveys using LANDSAT data?

Calibration and inverse regression estimators of crop proportions are investigated where the auxiliary variable is obtained from binary classification of multivariate LANDSAT data. The appropriate model relating classifier proportions and ground observed proportions for a given crop type is the calibration model. Under this model the inverse regression estimator is superior to the calibration estimator in estimating the crop acreage or proportion for a region of interest.

Chhikara, R. S.↗

Einstein X-ray observations of Proxima Centauri and the surrounding region

The first detection of both quiescent and flaring soft X-ray emission from a dMe flare star, Proxima Centauri (dM5e) is reported. The data are analyzed for temporal variability and spectral characteristics. The quiescent state is characterized by a mean X-ray luminosity of 1.5 x 10 to the 27th erg s/s, corresponding to a mean surface flux of 700,000 erg s/sq cm-s, and an inferred temperature of 4-million K. The flare that is detected has a peak flux of 7.4 x 10 to the 27th erg s/s and a peak temperature of 17-million K. The implications of these data for models of the quiescent and flare coronae of dMe stars are discussed.

Haisch, B. M.↗

An Investigation of Flight Deck Data Link in the Terminal Area

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and Europe's Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) concepts require an increased use of trajectory-based operations, including extensive strategic air traffic control clearances. The clearances are lengthy and complex, which necessitate data link communications to allow for message permanence and integration into the autoflight systems (i.e., autoload capability). This paper examines the use of flight deck data link communications for strategic and tactical clearance usage in the terminal area. A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted using a high-fidelity flight deck simulator, with ten commercial flight crews as participants. Data were collected from six flight scenarios in the San Francisco terminal airspace. The variables of interest were ATC message modality (voice v. data link), temporal quality of the message (tactical v. strategic) and message length. Dependent variables were message response times, communication clarifications, communication-related errors, and pilot workload. Response time results were longer in data link compared to voice, a finding that has been consistently revealed in a number of other simulations [1]. In addition, strategic clearances and longer messages resulted in a greater number of clarifications and errors, suggesting an increase in uncertainty of message interpretation for the flight crews when compared to tactical clearances. The implications for strategic and compound clearance usage in NextGen and SESAR are discussed

data link communication↗

Variability in Global Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave Radiation Between 2000 and 2005

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux.

Loebe, Norman G.↗

Improved Regression Analysis of Temperature-Dependent Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An improved approach is discussed that may be used to directly include first and second order temperature effects in the load prediction algorithm of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance. The improved approach was designed for the Iterative Method that fits strain-gage outputs as a function of calibration loads and uses a load iteration scheme during the wind tunnel test to predict loads from measured gage outputs. The improved approach assumes that the strain-gage balance is at a constant uniform temperature when it is calibrated and used. First, the method introduces a new independent variable for the regression analysis of the balance calibration data. The new variable is designed as the difference between the uniform temperature of the balance and a global reference temperature. This reference temperature should be the primary calibration temperature of the balance so that, if needed, a tare load iteration can be performed. Then, two temperature{dependent terms are included in the regression models of the gage outputs. They are the temperature difference itself and the square of the temperature difference. Simulated temperature{dependent data obtained from Triumph Aerospace's 2013 calibration of NASA's ARC-30K five component semi{span balance is used to illustrate the application of the improved approach.

wind tunnel testing↗

Relationships Among Lower Body Strength, Power, and Performance of Functional Tasks

There is a large degree of variability among crewmembers with respect to decrements in muscle strength and power following long duration spaceflight, ranging from 0 to approx.30% reductions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of varying decrements in lower body muscle strength and power (relative to body weight) on the performance of 2 occupationally relevant tasks (ladder climb and supine egress & walk). Seventeen participants with leg strength similar to US crewmembers performed a leg press power test, an isokinetic knee extension strength test and they were asked to complete the 2 functional tasks as quickly as possible. On additional test days the participants were asked to repeat the functional tasks under 3 conditions where a different external load was applied each time using a weighted suit in order to experimentally manipulate participants strength/body weight and power/body weight ratios. The weight in the suit ranged from 20-120% of body weight and was distributed in proportion to limb segment weights to minimize changes in center of gravity. The ladder task consisted of climbing 40 rungs on a ladder treadmill as fast as possible. The supine egress & walk task consisted of rising from a supine position and walking through an obstacle course. Results show a relatively linear relationship between strength/body weight and task time and power/body weight with task time such that the fastest performance times are associated with higher strength and power with about half the variance in task time is accounted for by a single variable (either strength or power). For the average person, a 20% reduction in power/body weight (from 18 to 14.4 W/kg) induces an increase (slowing) of about 10 seconds in the ladder climb task from 14 to 24 seconds (approx.70%) and a slowing of the supine egress & walk task from 14 to 21 seconds (approx.50%). Similar relationships were observed with strength/body weight and task performance. For the average person, a 20% reduction in strength/body weight (from 2.1 to 1.7 Nm/kg) resulted in a slowing of the ladder climb from 10.5 to 24 seconds (approx.128%) and a slowing of the supine egress & walk from 11 to 20 seconds (approx.82%). These data suggest that the single variable of either low body muscle strength or power, relative to body weight is predictive of about 50% of the variance in task performance time, and that considerable slowing in task performance is associated with relatively typical decrements in muscle performance seen with long duration spaceflight. The observation of a relatively linear relationship between strength/power and task time suggests that across the full spectrum of initial crew strengths and typical decrements in strength previously observed, that task performance would be expected to be slowed following long duration spaceflight. These data will be confirmed in actual spaceflight with subsequent studies.

Ploutz-Snyder, Lori↗

Statistical Quality Control of Moisture Data in GEOS DAS

A new statistical quality control algorithm was recently implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The final step in the algorithm consists of an adaptive buddy check that either accepts or rejects outlier observations based on a local statistical analysis of nearby data. A basic assumption in any such test is that the observed field is spatially coherent, in the sense that nearby data can be expected to confirm each other. However, the buddy check resulted in excessive rejection of moisture data, especially during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The analysis moisture variable in GEOS DAS is water vapor mixing ratio. Observational evidence shows that the distribution of mixing ratio errors is far from normal. Furthermore, spatial correlations among mixing ratio errors are highly anisotropic and difficult to identify. Both factors contribute to the poor performance of the statistical quality control algorithm. To alleviate the problem, we applied the buddy check to relative humidity data instead. This variable explicitly depends on temperature and therefore exhibits a much greater spatial coherence. As a result, reject rates of moisture data are much more reasonable and homogeneous in time and space.

Dee, D. P.↗

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗

Cloud cover archiving on a global scale - A discussion of principles

Monitoring of climatic variability and climate modeling both require a reliable global cloud data set. Examination is made of the temporal and spatial variability of cloudiness in light of recommendations made by GARP in 1975 (and updated by JOC in 1978 and 1980) for cloud data archiving. An examination of the methods of comparing cloud cover frequency curves suggests that the use of the beta distribution not only facilitates objective comparison, but also reduces overall storage requirements. A specific study of the only current global cloud climatology (the U.S. Air Force's 3-dimensional nephanalysis) over the United Kingdom indicates that discussion of methods of validating satellite-based data sets is urgently required.

Henderson-Sellers, A.↗

Application of acoustic-Doppler current profiler and expendable bathythermograph measurements to the study of the velocity structure and transport of the Gulf Stream

The degree to which Acoustic-Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data can provide quantitative measurements of the velocity structure and transport of the Gulf Stream is addressed. An algorithm is used to generate salinity from temperature and depth using an historical Temperature/Salinity relation for the NW Atlantic. Results have been simulated using CTD data and comparing real and pseudo salinity files. Errors are typically less than 2 dynamic cm for the upper 800 m out of a total signal of 80 cm (across the Gulf Stream). When combined with ADCP data for a near-surface reference velocity, transport errors in isopycnal layers are less than about 1 Sv (10 to the 6th power cu m/s), as is the difference in total transport for the upper 800 m between real and pseudo data. The method is capable of measuring the real variability of the Gulf Stream, and when combined with altimeter data, can provide estimates of the geoid slope with oceanic errors of a few parts in 10 to the 8th power over horizontal scales of 500 km.

Joyce, T. M.↗

Multi-application controls: Robust nonlinear multivariable aerospace controls applications

This viewgraph presentation describes the general methodology used to apply Honywell's Multi-Application Control (MACH) and the specific application to the F-18 High Angle-of-Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) including piloted simulation handling qualities evaluation. The general steps include insertion of modeling data for geometry and mass properties, aerodynamics, propulsion data and assumptions, requirements and specifications, e.g. definition of control variables, handling qualities, stability margins and statements for bandwidth, control power, priorities, position and rate limits. The specific steps include choice of independent variables for least squares fits to aerodynamic and propulsion data, modifications to the management of the controls with regard to integrator windup and actuation limiting and priorities, e.g. pitch priority over roll, and command limiting to prevent departures and/or undesirable inertial coupling or inability to recover to a stable trim condition. The HARV control problem is characterized by significant nonlinearities and multivariable interactions in the low speed, high angle-of-attack, high angular rate flight regime. Systematic approaches to the control of vehicle motions modeled with coupled nonlinear equations of motion have been developed. This paper will discuss the dynamic inversion approach which explicity accounts for nonlinearities in the control design. Multiple control effectors (including aerodynamic control surfaces and thrust vectoring control) and sensors are used to control the motions of the vehicles in several degrees-of-freedom. Several maneuvers will be used to illustrate performance of MACH in the high angle-of-attack flight regime. Analytical methods for assessing the robust performance of the multivariable control system in the presence of math modeling uncertainty, disturbances, and commands have reached a high level of maturity. The structured singular value (mu) frequency response methodology is presented as a method for analyzing robust performance and the mu-synthesis method will be presented as a method for synthesizing a robust control system. The paper concludes with the author's expectations regarding future applications of robust nonlinear multivariable controls.

Enns, Dale F.↗

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Koster, R. D.↗

A self-documenting source-independent data format for computer processing of tensor time series

The UCLA Space Science Group has developed a fixed format intermediate data set called a block data set, which is designed to hold multiple segments of multicomponent sampled data series. The format is sufficiently general so that tensor functions of one or more independent variables can be stored in the form of virtual data. This makes it possible for the unit data records of the block data set to be arrays of a single dependent variable rather than discrete samples. The format is self-documenting with parameter, label and header records completely characterizing the contents of the file. The block data set has been applied to the filing of satellite data (of ATS-6 among others).

Mcpherron, R. L.↗

Crop weather models of corn and soybeans for Agrophysical Units (APU's) in Iowa using monthly meteorological predictors

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate corn and soybean yield from weather data for agrophysical units (APU) in Iowa. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for crop reporting districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU's were selected to be more homogeneous with respect crop to production than the CRDs. The APU models are quite similar to the CRD models, similar explained variation and number of predictor variables. The APU models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. That comparison should indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

Leduc, S.↗

Multiwavelength Observations of Strong Flares from the TeV Blazar 1ES 1959+650

Following the detection of strong TeV gamma ray flares from the BL Lac object 1 ES 1959+650 with the Whipple 10 m Cerenkov telescope on 2002 May 16 and 17, we performed intensive target of opportunity radio, optical, X-ray, and TeV ?ray observations from 2002 May 18 to August 14. Observations with the X-ray telescope RossiX-Ray Timing Explorer and the Whipple and HEGRA gamma-ray telescopes revealed several strong flares, enabling us to sensitively test the X-ray--gamma-ray flux correlation properties. Although the X-ray and gamma-ray fluxes seemed to be correlated in general, we found an orphan gamma-ray flare that was not accompanied by an X-ray flare. While we detected optical flux variability with the Boltwood and Abastumani observatories, the data did not give evidence for a correlation of the optical flux variability with the observed X-ray and 7-ray flares. Within statistical errors of about 0.03 Jy at 14.5 GHz and 0.05 Jy at 4.8 GHz, the radio fluxes measured with the University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory stayed constant throughout the campaign; the mean values agreed well with the values measured on 2002 May 7 and June 7 at 4.9 and 15 GHz with the Very Large Array and at 4.8 GHz with archival flux measurements. After describing in detail the radio, optical, X-ray and gamma-ray light curves, and spectral energy distributions (SEDs), we present initial modeling of the SED with a simple synchrotron self- Compton model. With the addition of another TeV blazar with good broadband data, we consider the set of all TeV blazars, to begin to look for a connection of the jet properties to the properties of the central accreting black hole thought to drive the jet. Remarkably, the temporal and special X-ray and gamma-ray emission characteristics of TeV blazars are very similar, even though the mass estimates of their central black holes differ by up to 1 order of magnitude.

Krawczynski, H.↗