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At least 973 records · Page 54

Forecast model applications of retrieved three dimensional liquid water fields

Forecasts are made for tropical storm Emily using heating rates derived from the SSM/I physical retrievals described in chapters 2 and 3. Average values of the latent heating rates from the convective and stratiform cloud simulations, used in the physical retrieval, are obtained for individual 1.1 km thick vertical layers. Then, the layer-mean latent heating rates are regressed against the slant path-integrated liquid and ice precipitation water contents to determine the best fit two parameter regression coefficients for each layer. The regression formulae and retrieved precipitation water contents are utilized to infer the vertical distribution of heating rates for forecast model applications. In the forecast model, diabatic temperature contributions are calculated and used in a diabatic initialization, or in a diabatic initialization combined with a diabatic forcing procedure. Our forecasts show that the time needed to spin-up precipitation processes in tropical storm Emily is greatly accelerated through the application of the data.

Raymond, William H.↗

COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus–host interaction mechanisms

We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of water vapor profiles and total ozone burden from HIRS2/MSU sounding data

Algorithms for determining total ozone content and humidity from HIRS2/MSU data are examined. The methods are based on the ability to accurately model the response of a given channel to changes in a given atmospheric component. The steps of the iterative relaxation method for determining atmospheric water vapor and ozone content are described. Examples of retrieved fields of total ozone and precipitable water are presented.

Reuter, D.↗

Precision string phenomenology

Calabi-Yau compactifications of the E 8 × E 8 heterotic string provide a promising route to recovering the four-dimensional particle physics described by the Standard Model. While the topology of the Calabi-Yau space determines the overall matter content in the low-energy effective field theory, further details of the compactification geometry are needed to calculate the normalized physical couplings and masses of elementary particles. In this work, we present numerical computations of physical Yukawa couplings in a number of heterotic models in the standard embedding and demonstrate the existence of natural hierarchies, a coveted feature in string model building. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Berglund, Per (ORCID:0000000316754133)↗

Ignition and combustion of lunar propellants

The ignition and combustion of Al, Mg, and Al/Mg alloy particles in 99 percent O2/1 percent N2 mixtures is investigated at high temperatures and pressures for rocket engine applications. The 20 micron particles contain 0, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 weight percent Mg alloyed with Al, and are ignited in oxygen using the reflected shock in a shock tube near the endwall. Using this technique, the ignition delay and combustion times of the particles are measured at temperatures up to 3250 K as a function of Mg content for oxygen pressures of 8.5, 17, and 34 atm. An ignition model is developed which employs a simple lumped capacitance energy equation and temperature and pressure dependent particle and gas properties. Good agreement is achieved between the measured and predicted trends in the ignition delay times. For the particles investigated, the contribution of heterogeneous reaction to the heating of the particle is found to be significant at lower temperatures, but may be neglected as gas temperatures above 3000 K. As little as 10 percent Mg reduces the ignition delay time substantially at all pressures tested. The particle ignition delay times decrease with increasing Mg content, and this reduction becomes less pronounced as oxidizer temperature and pressure are increased.

Burton, Rodney L.↗

Effects of varying soil moisture contents and vegetation canopies on microwave emissions

Results of NASA airborne passive microwave scans of bare and vegetated fields for comparison with ground truth tests are discussed and a model for atmospheric scattering of radiation by vegetation is detailed. On-board radiometers obtained data at 21, 2.8, and 1.67 cm during three passes over each of 46 fields, 28 of which were bare and the others having wheat or alfalfa. Ground-based sampling included moisture in five layers down to 15 cm in addition to soil temperature. The relationships among the brightness temperature and soil moisture, as well as the surface roughness and the vegetation canopy were examined. A model was developed for the dielectric coefficient and volume scattering for a vegetation medium. L- to C-band data were found useful for retrieving soil information directly. A surface moisture content of 5-35% yielded an emissivity of 0.9-0.7. The data agreed well with a combined multilayer radiative transfer model with simple roughness correction.

Burke, H.-H. K.↗

Data-Driven Constitutive Model for the Inelastic Response of Metals: Application to 316H Steel

Here, predictions of the mechanical response of structural elements are conditioned by the accuracy of constitutive models used at the engineering length-scale. In this regard, a prospect of mechanistic crystal-plasticity-based constitutive models is that they could be used for extrapolation beyond regimes in which they are calibrated. However, their use for assessing the performance of a component is computationally onerous. To address this limitation, a new approach is proposed whereby a surrogate constitutive model (SM) of the inelastic response of 316H steel is derived from a mechanistic crystal plasticity-based polycrystal model tracking the evolution of dislocation densities on all slip systems. The latter is used to generate a database of the expected plastic response and dislocation content evolution associated with several instances of creep loading. From the database, a SM is developed. It relies on the use of orthogonal polynomial regression to describe the evolution of the dislocation content. The SM is then validated against predictions of the dead load creep response given by the polycrystal model across a range of temperatures and stresses. When the SM is used to predict the response of 316H during complex non monotonic loading, extrapolating to new loading conditions, it is found that predictions compare particularly well against those from the physics-based polycrystal model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Role of Sea‐Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observationally Constrained Modeling of the Reactive Uptake of Isoprene-Derived Epoxydiols under Elevated Relative Humidity and Varying Acidity of Seed Aerosol Conditions

Isoprene is the non-methane volatile organic compound (VOC) emitted in largest amounts to the atmosphere, and it is a significant source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass. The uptake of isoprene oxidation products followed by multiphase chemistry in fine particles is the key pathway to form isoprene epoxydiol-derived SOA (IEPOX-SOA). However, many parameters that relate to diffusion and reaction of IEPOX in the particle phase remain uncertain, since reaction kinetics previously measured in bulk aqueous phase solutions might be different from atmospheric aerosols. Here, we use simultaneous environmental chamber measurements of multiple parameters governing IEPOX-SOA formation at timescales of ~hours: particle size distribution, composition, and volatility of IEPOX-SOA to constrain the key parameters governing IE-POX-SOA formation under humid (i.e., 50% relative humidity, RH) and varying seed aerosol acidity conditions. Reducing the 2-methyltetrol (tetrol) reaction rate constants by a factor of 4 brings the model predictions in agreement with the IEPOX-SOA measurements with acidified ammonium bisulfate seed aerosols. For less acidic ammonium sulfate aerosols both the organo-sulfate (OS) and tetrol reaction rate constants need to be reduced to bring model predictions closer to chamber observations. Using the measured non-volatile content of IEPOX-SOA we constrain the oligomerization timescale of 2-methyltetrols. We find that the oligomerization timescale is 4 hours with acidified seed aerosols, but a much longer time scale of 24 hours is needed for non-acidified seed aerosols, indicating that the aerosol acidity greatly affects the oligomerization rate of tetrols. Here we show that the actual kinetics of IEPOX-SOA formation rate on aerosol seeds consisting of both ammonium bisulfate and ammonium sulfate are a factor of 4~5 slower under 50-60% RH conditions compared to their application in previous models, which were based on bulk aqueous solution measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assimilation of microwave satellite observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones

The potential of microwave observations in improving the weather forecasts is limited by the accuracy of all-sky radiative transfer calculations. We introduce a novel Bayesian MonteCarlo technique to improve the assimilation of microwave observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones. The BMCI technique eliminates the need for a forward model in the data assimilation system. The technique includes three steps, (i) generating a comprehensive dataset using in-situ cloud measurements and atmospheric profiles, (ii) generating synthetic ATMS observations from the training dataset, and (iii) using real observations to estimate the geophysical variables over the rainbands of tropical cyclones. The retrieved profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and cloud water content as well assurface information such as SST were then assimilated into the model. The results show that assimilating the BMCI retrievals can influence the dynamical features of the cyclone, including a stronger warm core, a symmetric eye, and vertically aligned wind columns.

Monte Carlo↗

Cold-air outbreak during GALE - Lidar observations and modeling of boundary layer dynamics

Two cold-air outbreaks were studied during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment. A lidar system was operated to observe the boundary layer evolution and the development of clouds. On the first day (January 30, 1986) boundary layer rise was less than 50 percent of the value for the second day (March 2, 1986). On the first day only a thin broken cloud cover formed, while on the second day a thick solid cloud deck formed - although the average moisture content was 60 percent of that on the first day. A trajectory slab model was employed to simulate the evolution of the layer over the ocean near the east Atlantic shore. The model allows for vertical gradients in conservative variables under neutrally buoyant conditions. The primary effect of these assumptions, which are based on observed thermodynamic profiles, is to reduce cloudiness to be more in line with observations. Boundary-layer depth was reasonably well predicted as was sensible and latent heat flux.

Boers, Reinout↗

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part II: Impact of Technoeconomic Constraints on Optimal Design

There is a current drive toward optimizing reactors, particularly small/micro reactors to minimize cost and maximize performance. Previous work has investigated the development of technoeconomic workflows for the design optimization of pool-type fast reactors that aim to deploy into district energy grids. Initial scoping studies verified that the workflow was capable of capturing design trends throughout a variety of design configurations and problem formulations while remaining sufficiently flexible. In this paper, this methodology is applied to understand how cost functions and technoeconomic constraints can drive optimal reactor design. Specifically, the UPu10Zr-fueled fast reactor model from Part I is adapted to include changes in the fissile content limits, control rod worth limits, control rod drive cost, and assumed fuel form. In the case of constraint relaxation at fixed power (fissile content and control rod worth limits), cost sensitivities of 5% to 10% were uncovered. Multi-objective optimization at varying reactor power levels with individualized control rod drives for each assembly (as opposed to one operational and one safety drive) increased cost by $\$10$ to $\$25$ million and substantially altered the optimal core geometry, favoring geometries with substantially fewer control rod placements relative to baseline optimization. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed at varying power levels with the fuel form overhauled to metallic, high-assay low-enriched uranium–based U10Zr with more refined fuel cost models. In the case of uranium fueling, the costs increased by at least $50 million relative to the baseline case. Furthermore, economic fuel zoning and lower reactivity swing cores were recovered. Each case serves to demonstrate the value of applying technoeconomic workflows to initial reactor design scoping studies to better understand the trade-off for a proposed concept between different design options.

Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) codes↗

The muon content of gamma-ray showers

The result of a calculation of the expected number of muons in gamma ray initiated and cosmic ray initiated air showers using a realistic model of hadronic collisions in an effort to understand the available experimental results and to assess the feasibility of using the muon content of showers as a veto to reject cosmic ray initiated showers in ultra-high energy gamma ray astronomy are reported. The possibility of observing very-high energy gamma-ray sources by detecting narrow angle anisotropies in the high energy muon background radiation are considered.

Edwards, P. G.↗

Modeling the performance and faradaic efficiency of solid oxide electrolysis cells using doped barium zirconate perovskite electrolytes

Y-doped BaZrO 3 (BaZr 1 x Y x O 3 δ , or “BZY”), a proton-conducting ceramic featuring high bulk conductivity and good chemical stability, is a promising electrolyte material for solid oxide electrolysis cells. Further doping with Ce and/or Yb (creating materials “BCZY” and “BCZYYb”) can improve conductivity and sintering properties, but at significant penalty to cells’ faradaic efficiency (FE). Studies have proposed that reduction of lattice Ce can occur in the hydrogen electrode, which consumes some hydrogen produced by the hydrogen evolution reaction, leading to decreased FE. Despite studies suggesting this phenomenon, the mechanism is largely unknown. In this work, we developed a multiphysics model to study the transport of multiple defect species and the performance of BZY, BCZY, and BCZYYb, capturing the tradeoff between enhanced performance at the cost of FE for BCZY and BCZYYb electrolytes compared to BZY. We also found that increasing the water content of the anode gas supply lowers the current output of the cell but results in better FE. The model, which uses several parameters previously unavailable in the literature, was validated to experiments varying temperature, steam water content, and electrolyte material, as well as two performance metrics (performance curves and FE). Results verify and explain observed trends, informing future work on Ce-doped BZY electrolytes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Improved Discrimination of Volcanic Complexes, Tectonic Features, and Regolith Properties in Mare Serenitatis from Earth-Based Radar Mapping

Radar images at 70 cm wavelength show 4-5 dB variations in backscatter strength within regions of relatively uniform spectral reflectance properties in central and northern Mare Serenitatis, delineating features suggesting lava flow margins, channels, and superposition relationships. These backscatter differences are much less pronounced at 12.6 cm wavelength, consistent with a large component of the 70 cm echo arising from the rough or blocky transition zone between the mare regolith and the intact bedrock. Such deep probing is possible because the ilmenite content, which modulates microwave losses, of central Mare Serenitatis is generally low (2-3% by weight). Modeling of the radar returns from a buried interface shows that an average regolith thickness of 10m could lead to the observed shifts in 70 cm echo power with a change in TiO2 content from 2% to 3%. This thickness is consistent with estimates of regolith depth (10-15m) based on the smallest diameter for which fresh craters have obvious blocky ejecta. The 70 cm backscatter differences provide a view of mare flow-unit boundaries, channels, and lobes unseen by other remote sensing methods. A localized pyroclastic deposit associated with Rima Calippus is identified based on its low radar echo strength. Radar mapping also improves delineation of units for crater age dating and highlights a 250 km long, east-west trending feature in northern Mare Serenitatis that we suggest is a large graben flooded by late-stage mare flows.

Radar echoes↗

The albedo of snow for partially cloudy skies

The albedo of snow is defined as the ratio of reflected to incident solar energy, and it is an important parameter in the earth's radiation budget analysis and in the study of snowpack's thermal conditions. An approximate model for calculating the incident spectral flux for partially cloudy skies is presented. The input parameters for the calculation are atmospheric precipitable water, turbidity, ozone content, surface pressure, the optical thickness of clouds, and the grain size of snow crystals. The spectral snow reflectance model considers both specular surface reflection and volumetric multiple scattering. The surface reflection is calculated by using a crystal-shape-dependent bidirectional reflectance distribution function; the volumetric multiple scattering is calculated by using a crystal-size-dependent approximate solution in the radiative transfer equation. The model yields spectral and integrated solar flux and snow reflectance as a function of solar elevation and fractional cloud-cover. The illustrative insolation and albedo values were obtained from spectral reflectance and incident flux for representative parameters of Antarctic coastal regions. A simple relationship between grain size and the overcast albedo was obtained. For a set of grain size and shape, the albedo as a function of solar elevation and fractional cloud cover was tabulated.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Dark matter density profiles in dwarf galaxies: linking Jeans modelling systematics and observation

ABSTRACT The distribution of dark matter in dwarf galaxies can have important implications on our understanding of galaxy formation as well as the particle physics properties of dark matter. However, accurately characterizing the dark matter content of dwarf galaxies is challenging due to limited data and complex dynamics that are difficult to accurately model. In this paper, we apply spherical Jeans modelling to simulated stellar kinematic data of spherical, isotropic dwarf galaxies with the goal of identifying the future observational directions that can improve the accuracy of the inferred dark matter distributions in the Milky Way dwarf galaxies. We explore how the dark matter inference is affected by the location and number of observed stars as well as the line-of-sight velocity measurement errors. We use mock observation to demonstrate the difficulty in constraining the inner core/cusp of the dark matter distribution with data sets of fewer than 10 000 stars. We also demonstrate the need for additional measurements to make robust estimates of the expected dark matter annihilation signal strength. For the purpose of deriving robust indirect detection constraints, we identify Ursa Major II, Ursa Minor, and Draco as the systems that would most benefit from additional stars being observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Physical model and experimental validation of a high temperature proton exchange membrane electrochemical hydrogen pump cell for efficient single-stage extraction of low concentration hydrogen gas

There is interest in valorization of existing natural gas infrastructure to facilitate the co-transportation of hydrogen via blending of hydrogen gas initially at limited concentrations of 1–20 vol% H2 and to subsequently extract hydrogen at fuel cell quality standards (SAE J2719/ISO14687-2). High temperature proton exchange membrane electrochemical hydrogen pump (HT-PEM EHP) based on phosphoric acid doped polybenzimidazole (PA-PBI) exhibits good performance at elevated temperatures (>120 °C), which provides desirable tolerance to non-methane natural gas constituents that are problematic for lower temperature based EHP. To better understand the suitability of the HT-PEM EHP for such gas separation processes, a two-dimensional model of EHP based on PA-PBI was developed. The model is validated for several relevant operating conditions and across cells with differing amounts of phosphoric acid content in the electrodes. Operando micro x-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging of an HT-PEM EHP was used to further validate physical parameters and assumptions of the model. The impacts of pressure, relative humidity of the anode feed, and concentration of feed gases on separation performance are investigated. This study shows that a specific energy of separation of 5.1 kWh/kg H2 at a hydrogen recovery factor (HRF) of 50 vol% can be achieved in a single stage with the EHP, producing fuel cell quality hydrogen purity of 99.99 vol% H2 from a 2 vol% H2/CH4 feed blend, while pressurizing the product H2 at a pressure ratio of 1.3 relative to feed pressure.

Stansberry, John M↗