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DOE OSTI2023

Engineering custom morpho- and chemotypes of Populus for sustainable production of biofuels, bioproducts, and biomaterials

Humans have been modifying plant traits for thousands of years, first through selection (i.e., domestication) then modern breeding, and in the last 30 years, through biotechnology. These modifications have resulted in increased yield, more efficient agronomic practices, and enhanced quality traits. Precision knowledge of gene regulation and function through high-resolution single-cell omics technologies, coupled with the ability to engineer plant genomes at the DNA sequence, chromatin accessibility, and gene expression levels, can enable engineering of complex and complementary traits at the biosystem level. Populus spp., the primary genetic model system for woody perennials, are among the fastest growing trees in temperate zones and are important for both carbon sequestration and global carbon cycling. Ample genomic and transcriptomic resources for poplar are available including emerging single-cell omics datasets. To expand use of poplar outside of valorization of woody biomass, chassis with novel morphotypes in which stem branching and tree height are modified can be fabricated thereby leading to trees with altered leaf to wood ratios. These morphotypes can then be engineered into customized chemotypes that produce high value biofuels, bioproducts, and biomaterials not only in specific organs but also in a cell-type-specific manner. For example, the recent discovery of triterpene production in poplar leaf trichomes can be exploited using cell-type specific regulatory sequences to synthesize high value terpenes such as the jet fuel precursor bisabolene specifically in the trichomes. By spatially and temporally controlling expression, not only can pools of abundant precursors be exploited but engineered molecules can be sequestered in discrete cell structures in the leaf. The structural diversity of the hemicellulose xylan is a barrier to fully utilizing lignocellulose in biomaterial production and by leveraging cell-type-specific omics data, cell wall composition can be modified in a tailored and targeted specific manner to generate poplar wood with novel chemical features that are amenable for processing or advanced manufacturing. Precision engineering poplar as a multi-purpose sustainable feedstock highlights how genome engineering can be used to re-imagine a crop species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methanogenesis and Salt Tolerance Genes of a Novel Halophilic Methanosarcinaceae Metagenome-Assembled Genome from a Former Solar Saltern

Anaerobic archaeal methanogens are key players in the global carbon cycle due to their role in the final stages of organic matter decomposition in anaerobic environments such as wetland sediments. Here we present the first draft metagenome-assembled genome (MAG) sequence of an unclassified Methanosarcinaceae methanogen phylogenetically placed adjacent to the Methanolobus and Methanomethylovorans genera that appears to be a distinct genus and species. The genome is derived from sediments of a hypersaline (97–148 ppt chloride) unrestored industrial saltern that has been observed to be a significant methane source. The source sediment is more saline than previous sources of Methanolobus and Methanomethylovorans. We propose a new genus name, Methanosalis, to house this genome, which we designate with the strain name SBSPR1A. The MAG was binned with CONCOCT and then improved via scaffold extension and reassembly. The genome contains pathways for methylotrophic methanogenesis from trimethylamine and dimethylamine, as well as genes for the synthesis and transport of compatible solutes. Some genes involved in acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis are present, but those pathways appear incomplete in the genome. The MAG was more abundant in two former industrial salterns than in a nearby reference wetland and a restored wetland, both of which have much lower salinity levels, as well as significantly lower methane emissions than the salterns.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Partitioning of Diurnal Stem CO 2 Efflux into Local Stem Respiration and Xylem Transport Processes

The apparent respiratory quotient (ARQ) of tree stems, defined as the ratio of net stem CO 2 efflux (E S_CO2 ) to net stem O 2 influx (E S_O2 ), offers insights into the balance between local respiratory CO 2 production and CO 2 transported via the xylem. Traditional static chamber methods for measuring ARQ can introduce artifacts and obscure natural diurnal variations. Here, we employed an open flow-through stem chamber with ambient air coupled with cavity ring-down spectrometry, which uses the molecular properties of CO 2 and O 2 molecules to continuously measure E S_CO2 , E S_O2 , and ARQ, at the base of a California cherry tree (Prunus ilicifolia) during the 2024 growing season. Measurements across three stem chambers over 3–11-day periods revealed strong correlations between E S_CO2 and E S_O2 and mean ARQ values ranging from 1.3 to 2.9, far exceeding previous reports. Two distinct diurnal ARQ patterns were observed: daytime suppression with nighttime recovery, and a morning peak followed by gradual decline. Partitioning E S_CO2 into local respiration and xylem-transported CO 2 indicated that the latter can dominate when ARQ exceeds 2.0. Furthermore, transported CO 2 exhibited a higher temperature sensitivity than local respiration, with both processes showing declining temperature sensitivity above 20 °C. These findings underscore the need to differentiate stem CO 2 flux components to improve our understanding of whole-tree carbon cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Soil Metabolomics Predict Microbial Taxa as Biomarkers of Moisture Status in Soils from a Tidal Wetland

We present observations from a laboratory-controlled study on the impacts of extreme wetting and drying on a wetland soil microbiome. Our approach was to experimentally challenge the soil microbiome to understand impacts on anaerobic carbon cycling processes as the system transitions from dryness to saturation and vice-versa. Specifically, we tested for impacts on stress responses related to shifts from wet to drought conditions. We used a combination of high-resolution data for small organic chemical compounds (metabolites) and biological (community structure based on 16S rRNA gene sequencing) features. Using a robust correlation-independent data approach, we further tested the predictive power of soil metabolites for the presence or absence of taxa. Here, we demonstrate that taking an untargeted, multidimensional data approach to the interpretation of metabolomics has the potential to indicate the causative pathways selecting for the observed bacterial community structure in soils.

16S rRNA gene↗

DOE OSTI2021

Are Methanol-Derived Foliar Methyl Acetate Emissions a Tracer of Acetate-Mediated Drought Survival in Plants?

Upregulation of acetate fermentation in plants has recently been described as an evolutionarily conserved drought survival strategy, with the amount of acetate produced directly correlating to survival. However, destructive measurements are required to evaluate acetate-linked drought responses, limiting the temporal and spatial scales that can be studied. Here, 13C-labeling studies with poplar (Populus trichocarpa) branches confirmed that methyl acetate is produced in plants from the acetate-linked acetylation of methanol. Methyl acetate emissions from detached leaves were strongly stimulated during desiccation, with total emissions decreasing with the leaf developmental stage. In addition, diurnal methyl acetate emissions from whole physiologically active poplar branches increased as a function of temperature, and light-dark transitions resulted in significant emission bursts lasting several hours. During experimental drought treatments of potted poplar saplings, light-dark methyl acetate emission bursts were eliminated while strong enhancements in methyl acetate emissions lasting > 6 days were observed with their initiation coinciding with the suppression of transpiration and photosynthesis. The results suggest that methyl acetate emissions represent a novel non-invasive tracer of acetate-mediated temperature and drought survival response in plants. The findings may have important implications for the future understanding of acetate-mediated drought responses to transcription, cellular metabolism, and hormone signaling, as well as its associated changes in carbon cycling and water use from individual plants to whole ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Factors Controlling a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Derived Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product over The Seward Peninsula of Alaska

Root-zone soil moisture exerts a fundamental control on vegetation, energy balance, and the carbon cycle in Arctic ecosystems, but it is still not well understood in vast, remote, and understudied regions of discontinuous permafrost. The root-zone soil moisture product (30 m resolution) used in this analysis was retrieved from a time-series P-Band (420–440 MHz) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter observations (August 2017 & October 2017). While similar approaches have been taken to retrieve surface (0 cm to 5 cm) soil moisture from L-Band (1.2 GHz) SAR backscatter, this is one of the first known attempts at reaching the root-zone in permafrost regions. Here, we analyze secondary factors (excluding primary factors, such as precipitation) controlling summer (August) soil moisture at depths of 6 cm, 12 cm, and 20 cm over a 4500 km2 area on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using a random forest model, we quantify the impact of topography, vegetation, and meteorological factors on soil moisture distributions. In developing the random forest model, we explore a variety of feature scales (30 m, 60 m, 90 m, 120 m, 180 m, and 240 m), tune hyperparameters (the structure of individual decision trees making up the ensemble including the number and depth of trees), and perform the final feature selection using cross-validated recursive feature elimination. Results suggest that root-zone soil moisture on the Seward Peninsula is primarily controlled by vegetation at 6 cm, but deeper in the soil column topography and meteorological factors, such as predominant winter wind direction and summer insolation, play a larger role. The random forest model accounts for 40% to 60% of the variation observed (R2 = 0.44 at 6 cm, R2 = 0.52 at 12 cm, R2 = 0.58 at 20 cm). These results indicate that vegetation is the dominant control on soil moisture shallow in the soil column, but the impact of vegetation does not extend to deeper layers retrieved from P-Band SAR backscatter.

Dann, Julian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mixing states of Amazon basin aerosol particles transported over long distances using transmission electron microscopy

The Amazon basin is important for understanding the global climate because of its carbon cycle and as a laboratory for obtaining basic knowledge of the continental background atmosphere. Aerosol particles play an important role in the climate and weather, and knowledge of their compositions and mixing states is necessary to understand their influence on the climate. For this study, we collected aerosol particles from the Amazon basin during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign (February to March 2014) at the T3 site, which is located about 70 km from Manaus, and analyzed them using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). TEM has better spatial resolution than other instruments, which enables us to analyze the occurrences of components that attach to or are embedded within other particles. Based on the TEM results of more than 10 000 particles from several transport events, this study shows the occurrences of individual particles including compositions, size distributions, number fractions, and possible sources of materials that mix with other particles. Aerosol particles during the wet season were from both natural sources such as the Amazon forest, Saharan desert, Atlantic Ocean, and African biomass burning and anthropogenic sources such as Manaus and local emissions. These particles mix together at an individual particle scale. The number fractions of mineral dust and sea-salt particles increased almost 3-fold when long-range transport (LRT) from the African continent occurred. Nearly 20 % of mineral dust and primary biological aerosol particles had attached sea salts on their surfaces. Sulfates were also internally mixed with sea-salt and mineral dust particles. The TEM element mapping images showed that several components with sizes of hundreds of nanometers from different sources commonly occur within individual LRT aerosol particles. We conclude that many aerosol particles from natural sources change their compositions by mixing during transport. The compositions and mixing states of these particles after emission result in changes in their hygroscopic and optical properties and should be considered when assessing their effects on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mixing states of Amazon-basin aerosol particles transported over long distances using transmission electron microscopy

The Amazon basin is important for understanding the global climate both because of its carbon cycle and as a laboratory for obtaining basic knowledge of the continental background atmosphere. Aerosol particles play an important role in the climate and weather, and knowledge of their compositions and mixing states is necessary to understand their influence on the climate. For this study, we collected aerosol particles from the Amazon basin during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign (February to March 2014) at the T3 site, which locates about 70 km from Manaus, and analyzed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). TEM has better spatial resolution than other instruments, which enables us to analyse the occurrences of components that attach to or are embedded within other particles. Based on the TEM results of more than 10,000 particles from several transport events, this study shows the occurrences of individual particles including compositions, size distributions, number fractions, and possible sources of materials that mix with other particles. Aerosol particles during the wet season were from both natural sources such as the Amazon forest, Saharan desert, Atlantic Ocean, and African biomass burning and anthropogenic sources such as Manaus and local emissions. These particles mix together at an individual particle scale. The number fractions of mineral dust and sea-salt particles increased almost three-fold when long-range transport (LRT) from the African continent occurred. Nearly 20 % of mineral dust and primary biological aerosol particles attached sea salts on their surfaces. Sulfates were also internally mixed with sea-salt and mineral dust particles. The TEM element mapping images showed that several components with sizes of hundreds of nanometres from different sources commonly occur within individual LRT aerosol particles. We conclude that many aerosol particles from natural sources change their compositions by mixing during transport. The compositions and mixing states of these particles after emission result in changes in their hygroscopic and optical properties and should be considered when assessing their effects on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The effect of temperature on photosystem II efficiency across plant functional types and climate

Modeling terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is central to predicting the global carbon cycle. Much interest has been focused on the environmentally induced dynamics of photosystem energy partitioning and how improvements in the description of such dynamics assist the prediction of light reactions of photosynthesis and therefore GPP. The maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Φ PSIImax ) is a key parameter of the light reactions that influence the electron transport rate needed for supporting the biochemical reactions of photosynthesis. Φ PSIImax is generally treated as a constant in biochemical photosynthetic models even though a constant Φ PSIImax is expected only for non-stressed plants. We synthesized reported Φ PSIImax values from pulse-amplitude-modulated fluorometry measurements in response to variable temperatures across the globe. We found that Φ PSIImax is strongly affected by prevailing temperature regimes with declined values in both hot and cold conditions. To understand the spatiotemporal variability in Φ PSIImax , we analyzed the temperature effect on Φ PSIImax across plant functional type (PFT) and habitat climatology. The analysis showed that temperature's impact on Φ PSIImax is shaped more by climate than by PFT for plants with broad latitudinal distributions or in regions with extreme temperature variability. There is a trade-off between the temperature range within which Φ PSIImax remains maximal and the overall rate of decline of Φ PSIImax outside the temperature range such that species cannot be simultaneously tolerant and resilient to extreme temperatures. Our study points to a quantitative approach for improving electron transport and photosynthetic productivity modeling under changing climates at regional and global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

Ding, Junyan [Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA ↗

DOE OSTI2021

A daily, 250 m and real-time gross primary productivity product (2000–present) covering the contiguous United States

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time and observation-based GPP products. To address this critical gap, here we leverage a state-of-the-art vegetation index, near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), along with accurate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), to produce a SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Compared to existing GPP products, the proposed SLOPE product is advanced in its spatial resolution (250 m versus >500 m), temporal resolution (daily versus 8 d), instantaneity (latency of 1 d versus >2 weeks) and quantitative uncertainty (on a per-pixel and daily basis versus no uncertainty information available). These characteristics are achieved because of several technical innovations employed in this study: (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRV (SANIRV) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Cropland Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. Through developing a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters, the proposed SLOPE product explains 85 % of the spatial and temporal variations in GPP acquired from 49 AmeriFlux eddy-covariance sites (324 site years), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.63 gC m−2 d−1. The median R2 over C3 and C4 crop sites reaches 0.87 and 0.94, respectively, indicating great potentials for monitoring crops, in particular bioenergy crops, at the field level. With such a satisfactory performance and its distinct characteristics in spatiotemporal resolution and instantaneity, the proposed SLOPE GPP product is promising for biological and environmental research, carbon cycle research, and a broad range of real-time applications at the regional scale. The archived dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1786 (download page: https://daac.ornl.gov/daacdata/cms/SLOPE_GPP_CONUS/data/, last access: 20 January 2021) (Jiang and Guan, 2020), and the real-time dataset is available upon request.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model

Abstract. Hector is an open-source reduced-complexity climate–carbon cycle model that models critical Earth system processes on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3.2.0 (hereafter Hector V3), and document its new features, implementation of new science, and performance. Significant new features include permafrost thaw, a reworked energy balance submodel, and updated parameterizations throughout. Hector V3 results are in good general agreement with historical observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global mean surface temperature, and the future temperature projections from Hector V3 are consistent with more complex Earth system model output data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that Hector V3 is a flexible, performant, robust, and fully open-source simulator of global climate changes. We also note its limitations and discuss future areas for improvement and research with respect to the model's scientific, stakeholder, and educational priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7

The first version of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) coordinated key simulations exploring the role of individual forcings in past, current and future climate as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations have been used extensively in the literature for detection and attribution of long-term changes, constraining projections of climate change, attributing extreme events and understanding drivers of past and future simulated climate changes. Attribution studies using DAMIP v1.0 simulations underpinned prominent assessments of human-induced warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Here, we describe the set of DAMIP v2.0 simulations, proposed for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7. Detection and attribution studies rely on pre-industrial control simulations and historical simulations, which will be part of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) set of simulations for CMIP7. In addition, we identify the three highest-priority single-forcing experiments for CMIP7 to be run as “Assessment Fast Track” simulations in support of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC: simulations with natural forcings only, anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases only and anthropogenic aerosols only. Beyond this, the DAMIP v2.0 experimental design includes full-column ozone-only simulations and land-use-only simulations, such that the set of individual forcing experiments, when these are considered together, represents the full set of historical forcings. While concentration-driven simulations are prioritised for attribution, emissions-driven versions of the DAMIP experiments are also proposed to support understanding of the influence of carbon-cycle feedbacks on the simulated responses to individual forcings.

Gillett, Nathan P. [Environment and Climate Change↗