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At least 973 records · Page 54
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NASA NTRS2014

Variation of a Lightning NOx Indicator for National Climate Assessment

During the past couple of years, an analysis tool was developed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. The tool monitors and examines changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous US (CONUS) on a continual basis. In this study, we have expanded the capability of the tool so that it can compute a new climate assessment variable that is called the Lightning NOx Indicator (LNI). Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) are known to indirectly influence our climate, and lightning NOx is the most important source of NOx in the upper troposphere (particularly in the tropics). The LNI is derived using Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data and is computed by summing up the product of flash area x flash brightness over all flashes that occur in a particular region and period. Therefore, it is suggested that the LNI is a proxy to lightning NOx production. Specifically, larger flash areas are consistent with longer channel length and/or more energetic channels, and hence more NOx production. Brighter flashes are consistent with more energetic channels, and hence more NOx production. The location of the flash within the thundercloud and the optical scattering characteristics of the thundercloud are of course complicating factors. We analyze LIS data for the years 2003-2013 and provide geographical plots of the time-evolution of the LNI in order to determine if there are any significant changes or trends between like seasons, or from year to year.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Progressive Climate Change on Titan: Implications for Habitability

Titan's landscape is profoundly shaped by its atmosphere and comparable in magnitude perhaps with only the Earth and Mars amongst the worlds of the Solar System. Like the Earth, climate dictates the intensity and relative roles of fluvial and aeolian activity from place to place and over geologic time. Thus Titan's landscape is the record of climate change. We have investigated three broad classes of Titan climate evolution hypotheses (Steady State, Progressive, and Cyclic), regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We favor the Progressive hypotheses, which we will outline here, then discuss their implication for habitability.

implication for habitability↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ontology Engineering in Provenance Enablement for the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) analyzes and presents the impacts of climate change on the United States. The provenance information in the assessment is important because the assessment findings are of great public and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology, we developed information models and ontology to represent the content structure of the recent National Climate Assessment draft report and its associated provenance information. We tested the ontology by using it in pilot systems serving information about instances of chapters, scientific findings, figures, tables, images, datasets, references, people, and organizations, etc. in the draft report, as well as interrelationships among those instances. The results successfully help users trace provenance in the draft report, such as finding all the journal articles from which a figure in the report was derived. The provenance information in our work was maintained in the context of the "Web of Data". In addition to the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to retrieve and utilize the provenance information. Our work is part of a Global Change Information System coordinated by the USGCRP that will eventually cover provenance information for the entire scope of global change research. Such a system will greatly increase understanding, credibility and trust in the global change research and foster reproducibility of scientific results and conclusions.

Ontology engineering↗
NASA NTRS2014

Environmental Risk Factors and Child Nutritional Status and Survival in a Context of Climate Variability and Change

Much of the population in the developing world resides in rural areas, is dependent on local agriculture for survival, and thus directly subject to increasingly volatile and variable climatic patterns. Poverty limits options for adaptation to unpredictable weather and resultant food insecurity; these concerns are particularly salient in an era of climate change, which threatens to roll back years of development gains. Examining the association between the growing environment and child survival and nutrition is important in this context. Using NASA's satellite remote sensing data with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from four West African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Benin), we assess the association between a climate-related environmental variable (vegetation index - NDVI) and child survival and nutrition. NDVI had a positive association with child survival and nutrition in countries with a wide distribution of NDVI values. NDVI was more likely to be positively associated with wasting rather than stunting. We find that environmental factors can be important for child survival and nutrition outcomes in specific contexts. Additional research is needed to further explore the ways NDVI can be used to inform our understanding of the environment's impact on child survival and nutrition.

Environment↗
NASA NTRS2014

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US‐Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

Morin, Cory↗
NASA NTRS2015

Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

De Young, Russell J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Climatology↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

environment effects↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO)

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a mission, led and developed by NASA, that will measure a variety of climate variables with an unprecedented accuracy to quantify and attribute climate change. CLARREO consists of three separate instruments: an infrared (IR) spectrometer, a reflected solar (RS) spectrometer, and a radio occultation (RO) instrument. The mission will contain orbiting radiometers with sufficient accuracy, including on orbit verification, to calibrate other space-based instrumentation, increasing their respective accuracy by as much as an order of magnitude. The IR spectrometer is a Fourier Transform spectrometer (FTS) working in the 5 to 50 microns wavelength region with a goal of 0.1 K (k = 3) accuracy. The FTS will achieve this accuracy using phase change cells to verify thermistor accuracy and heated halos to verify blackbody emissivity, both on orbit. The RS spectrometer will measure the reflectance of the atmosphere in the 0.32 to 2.3 microns wavelength region with an accuracy of 0.3% (k = 2). The status of the instrumentation packages and potential mission options will be presented.

Leckey, John P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfatematter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

Kresmer, Stefanie↗
NASA NTRS2016

Western Pacific Hydroclimate Linked to Global Climate Variability Over the Past Two Millennia

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Pacific Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contributions of the ARM Program to Radiative Transfer Modeling for Climate and Weather Applications

Accurate climate and weather simulations must account for all relevant physical processes and their complex interactions. Each of these atmospheric, ocean, and land processes must be considered on an appropriate spatial and temporal scale, which leads these simulations to require a substantial computational burden. One especially critical physical process is the flow of solar and thermal radiant energy through the atmosphere, which controls planetary heating and cooling and drives the large-scale dynamics that moves energy from the tropics toward the poles. Radiation calculations are therefore essential for climate and weather simulations, but are themselves quite complex even without considering the effects of variable and inhomogeneous clouds. Clear-sky radiative transfer calculations have to account for thousands of absorption lines due to water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases, which are irregularly distributed across the spectrum and have shapes dependent on pressure and temperature. The line-by-line (LBL) codes that treat these details have a far greater computational cost than can be afforded by global models. Therefore, the crucial requirement for accurate radiation calculations in climate and weather prediction models must be satisfied by fast solar and thermal radiation parameterizations with a high level of accuracy that has been demonstrated through extensive comparisons with LBL codes. See attachment for continuation.

climatology↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploring and Analyzing Climate Variations Online by Using NASA MERRA-2 Data at GES DISC

NASA Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) (http:giovanni.sci.gsfc.nasa.govgiovanni) is a web-based data visualization and analysis system developed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data analysis functions include Lat-Lon map, time series, scatter plot, correlation map, difference, cross-section, vertical profile, and animation etc. The system enables basic statistical analysis and comparisons of multiple variables. This web-based tool facilitates data discovery, exploration and analysis of large amount of global and regional remote sensing and model data sets from a number of NASA data centers. Long term global assimilated atmospheric, land, and ocean data have been integrated into the system that enables quick exploration and analysis of climate data without downloading, preprocessing, and learning data. Example data include climate reanalysis data from NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) which provides data beginning in 1980 to present; land data from NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), which assimilates data from 1948 to 2012; as well as ocean biological data from NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM), which provides data from 1998 to 2012. This presentation, using surface air temperature, precipitation, ozone, and aerosol, etc. from MERRA-2, demonstrates climate variation analysis with Giovanni at selected regions.

knowledge base↗