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NASA NTRS2011

Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses

During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry. Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses. Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate waRMing, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2012

Ground-Based Observations of Recovery Phase Aurora

This analysis focuses on spatial and temporal forms occurring after substorm breakup. The observations show irregular shapes and nonuniform drifts with respect to relatively stationary pulsating patches. The pulsating patches occur within a diffuse auroral background as a modulation of the auroral brightness in a localized region. The images analyzed show a decrease in the brightness of the diffuse background in the region of the pulsating patch at the beginning of the 'off' phase of the modulation. Throughout the off phase the brightness of the diffuse aurora gradually increases back to the average intensity. The time constant for this increase is measured as the first step toward determining the physical process.

Jones, Sarah L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Rotating Rig Development for Droplet Deformation/Breakup and Impact Induced by Aerodynamic Surfaces

This work presents the development of a Rotating Rig Facility by the Instituto Nacional de Tecnica Aeroespacial (INTA) in cooperation with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The facility is located at the INTA installations near Madrid, Spain. It has been designed to study the deformation, breakup and impact of large droplets induced by aerodynamic bodies. The importance of these physical phenomena is related to the effects of Supercooled Large Droplets in icing clouds on the impinging efficiency of the droplets on the body, that may change should these phenomena not be taken into account. The important variables and the similarity parameters that enter in this problem are presented. The facility's components are described and some possible set-ups are explained. Application examples from past experiments are presented in order to indicate the capabilities of the new facility.

Feo, A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

X-Raying the Beating Heart of a Newborn Star: Rotational Modulation of High-Energy Radiation from V1647 Ori

We report a periodicity of approx.1 day in the highly elevated X-ray emission from the protostar V1647 Ori during its two recent multiple-year outbursts of mass accretion. This periodicity is indicative of protostellar rotation at near-breakup speed. Modeling of the phased X-ray light curve indicates the high-temperature ( 50 MK), X-ray-emitting plasma, which is most likely heated by accretion-induced magnetic reconnection, resides in dense ( 5 1010 cm.3), pancake-shaped magnetic footprints where the accretion stream feeds the newborn star. The sustained X-ray periodicity of V1647 Ori demonstrates that such protostellar magnetospheric accretion configurations can be stable over timescales of years. Subject headings: stars: formation stars: individual (V1647 Ori) stars: pre-main sequence X-rays: stars

Hamaguchi, Kenji↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Update on the Effectiveness of Postmission Disposal in LEO

The commonly‐adopted orbital debris mitigation measures were developed to reduce the growth of the future debris population. A major component in debris mitigation is post-mission disposal (PMD). The key PMD element for LEO satellites is the 25‐year rule. It is intended to limit the long‐term presence of rocket bodies (R/Bs) and spacecraft (S/C), as well as mission-related debris, in the environment. The effectiveness of PMD has been demonstrated and documented since the development of mitigation measures began in the 1990s. This paper summarizes an updated study, based on the current environment, using the NASA LEGEND model. The study focused on the > or = 10 cm population in LEO. The historical simulation covered 1957 through 2011 and followed the recorded launches and known breakup events. The future projection was carried out for 200 years. An eight‐year launch traffic, 2004 - 2011, was repeated during the projection period. An eight‐year mission lifetime was assumed for future S/C. No stationkeeping and no collision avoidance maneuver were implemented. Only objects 10 cm and larger were included in collision consideration. No explosion was allowed for R/Bs and S/C launched after 2011. The 25‐year PMD rule success rates were set at 0%, 10%, 50%, 75%, and 95%, respectively, for the 5 study scenarios. Results of the simulations were analyzed to quantify the differences among the different compliance rates. As expected, the 0% PMD projection followed a rapid and non‐linear increase in the next 200 years. The LEO population, on average, more than tripled at the end of the simulations. With a 50% compliance of the 25‐year rule, the population growth was reduced approximately by half. However, even with a 95% compliance of the 25‐year rule, the LEO debris population would still increase by an average of more than 50% in 200 years. These simulation results provide an updated assessment of the effectiveness of the 25‐year rule. It is the first and the most cost‐effective defense against future population growth. In addition, the results also confirm the instability of the LEO population and lay the foundation for the need to consider environment remediation in the future.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Observations of Titan 3C-4 Transtage Fragmentation Debris

The fragmentation of a Titan 3C-4 Transtage (1968-081) on 21 February 1992 is one of only two known break-ups in or near geosynchronous orbit. The original rocket body and 24 pieces of debris are currently being tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The rocket body (SSN# 3432) and several of the original fragments (SSN# 25000, 25001, 30000, and 33511) were observed in survey mode during 2004-2010 using the 0.6-m Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile using a broad R filter. This paper will present a size distribution for all calibrated magnitude data acquired on MODEST. Size distribution plots will also be shown using historical models for small fragmentation debris (down to 10 cm) believed to be associated with the Titan break-up. In November 2010, visible broadband photometry (Johnson/Kron-Cousins BVRI) was acquired with the 0.9-m Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System (SMARTS) at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile on several Titan fragments (SSN# 25001, 33509, 33510) and the parent rocket body. Color index data will be used to determine the fragment brightness distribution and how the data compares to spacecraft materials measured in the laboratory using similar photometric measurement techniques. In 2012, the SSN added 16 additional fragments to the catalogue. MODEST acquired magnitude data on ten Titan fragments in late 2012 and early 2013. The magnitude distribution of all the observed fragments are analyzed as a function of time. In order to better characterize the breakup fragments spectral measurements were acquired on the original rocket body and five Titan fragments using the 6.5-m Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. The telescopic spectra are compared with laboratory acquired spectra of materials (e.g., Aluminum and various paints) and categorized based on known absorption features for spacecraft materials.

Cowardin, Heather↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Model to Assess the Risk of Ice Accretion Due to Ice Crystal Ingestion in a Turbofan Engine and its Effects on Performance

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that were attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was one or more of the following anomalies: degraded engine performance, engine roll back, compressor surge and stall, and flameout of the combustor. The main focus of this research is the development of a computational tool that can estimate whether there is a risk of ice accretion by tracking key parameters through the compression system blade rows at all engine operating points within the flight trajectory. The tool has an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, coupled with a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor blade rows. Assumptions are made to predict the complex physics involved in engine icing. Specifically, the code does not directly estimate ice accretion and does not have models for particle breakup or erosion. Two key parameters have been suggested as conditions that must be met at the same location for ice accretion to occur: the local wet-bulb temperature to be near freezing or below and the local melt ratio must be above 10%. These parameters were deduced from analyzing laboratory icing test data and are the criteria used to predict the possibility of ice accretion within an engine including the specific blade row where it could occur. Once the possibility of accretion is determined from these parameters, the degree of blockage due to ice accretion on the local stator vane can be estimated from an empirical model of ice growth rate and time spent at that operating point in the flight trajectory. The computational tool can be used to assess specific turbine engines to their susceptibility to ice accretion in an ice crystal environment.

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Preliminary Analysis of Precipitation Properties and Processes during NASA GPM IFloodS

The Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) is a NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) ground measurement campaign, which took place in eastern Iowa from May 1 to June 15, 2013. The goals of the field campaign were to collect detailed measurements of surface precipitation using ground instruments and advanced weather radars while simultaneously collecting data from satellites passing overhead. Data collected by the radars and other ground instruments, such as disdrometers and rain gauges, will be used to characterize precipitation properties throughout the vertical column, including the precipitation type (e.g., rain, graupel, hail, aggregates, ice crystals), precipitation amounts (e.g., rain rate), and the size and shape of raindrops. The impact of physical processes, such as aggregation, melting, breakup and coalescence on the measured liquid and ice precipitation properties will be investigated. These ground observations will ultimately be used to improve rainfall estimates from satellites and in particular the algorithms that interpret raw data for the upcoming GPM mission's Core Observatory satellite, which launches in 2014. The various precipitation data collected will eventually be used as input to flood forecasting models in an effort to improve capabilities and test the utility and limitations of satellite precipitation data for flood forecasting. In this preliminary study, the focus will be on analysis of NASA NPOL (S‐band, polarimetric) radar (e.g., radar reflectivity, differential reflectivity, differential phase, correlation coefficient) and NASA 2D Video Disdrometers (2DVDs) measurements. Quality control and processing of the radar and disdrometer data sets will be outlined. In analyzing preliminary cases, particular emphasis will be placed on 1) documenting the evolution of the rain drop size distribution (DSD) as a function of column melting processes and 2) assessing the impact of range on ground‐based polarimetric radar estimates of DSD properties.

Carey, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2014

Investigation of Unsteady Flow Field in a Low-Speed One and a Half Stage Axial Compressor: Effects of Tip Gap Size On the Tip Clearance Flow Structure at Near Stall Operation - Part 2

The primary focus of this paper is to investigate the effect of rotor tip gap size on how the rotor unsteady tip clearance flow structure changes in a low speed one and half stage axial compressor at near stall operation (for example, where maximum pressure rise is obtained). A Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is applied to calculate the unsteady flow field at this flow condition with both a small and a large tip gaps. The numerically obtained flow fields at the small clearance matches fairly well with the available initial measurements obtained at the Johns Hopkins University with 3-D unsteady PIV in an index-matched test facility which renders the compressor blades and casing optically transparent. With this setup, the unsteady velocity field in the entire flow domain, including the flow inside the tip gap, can be measured. The numerical results are also compared with previously published measurements in a low speed single stage compressor (Maerz et al. [2002]). The current study shows that, with the smaller rotor tip gap, the tip clearance vortex moves to the leading edge plane at near stall operating condition, creating a nearly circumferentially aligned vortex that persists around the entire rotor. On the other hand, with a large tip gap, the clearance vortex stays inside the blade passage at near stall operation. With the large tip gap, flow instability and related large pressure fluctuation at the leading edge are observed in this one and a half stage compressor. Detailed examination of the unsteady flow structure in this compressor stage reveals that the flow instability is due to shed vortices near the leading edge, and not due to a three-dimensional separation vortex originating from the suction side of the blade, which is commonly referred to during a spike-type stall inception. The entire tip clearance flow is highly unsteady. Many vortex structures in the tip clearance flow, including the sheet vortex system near the casing, interact with each other. The core tip clearance vortex, which is formed with the rotor tip gap flows near the leading edge, is also highly unsteady or intermittent due to pressure oscillations near the leading edge and varies from passage to passage. For the current compressor stage, the evidence does not seem to support that a classical vortex breakup occurs in any organized way, even with the large tip gap. Although wakes from the IGV influence the tip clearance flow in the rotor, the major characteristics of rotor tip clearance flows in isolated or single stage rotors are observed in this one and a half stage axial compressor.

Unsteady↗
NASA NTRS2014

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

Ling, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2014

Solar Effects of Low-Earth Orbit objects in ORDEM 3.0

Variances in atmospheric density are directly related to the variances in solar flux intensity between 11- year solar cycles. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0) uses a solar flux table as input for calculating orbital lifetime of intact and debris objects in Low-Earth Orbit. Long term projections in solar flux activity developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) extend the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center (NOAA/SEC) daily historical flux values with a 5-year projection. For purposes of programmatic scheduling, the Q2 2009 solar flux table was chosen for ORDEM 3.0. Current solar flux activity shows that the current solar cycle has entered a period of lower solar flux intensity than previously forecasted in 2009. This results in a deviation of the true orbital debris environment propagation in ORDEM 3.0. In this paper, we present updated orbital debris populations in LEO using the latest solar flux values. We discuss the effects on recent breakup events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test and the Iridium 33 / Cosmos 2251 accidental collision. Justifications for chosen solar flux tables are discussed.

Vavrin, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

High Fidelity CFD Analysis and Validation of Rotorcraft Gearbox Aerodynamics Under Operational and Oil-Out Conditions

This document represents the evolving formal documentation of the NPHASE-PSU computer code. Version 3.15 is being delivered along with the software to NASA in 2013.Significant upgrades to the NPHASE-PSU have been made since the first delivery of draft documentation to DARPA and USNRC in 2006. These include a much lighter, faster and memory efficient face based front end, support for arbitrary polyhedra in front end, flow-solver and back-end, a generalized homogeneous multiphase capability, and several two-fluid modelling and algorithmic elements. Specific capability installed for the NASA Gearbox Windage Aerodynamics NRA are included in this version: Hybrid Immersed Overset Boundary Method (HOIBM) [Noack et. al (2009)] Periodic boundary conditions for multiple frames of reference, Fully generalized immersed boundary method, Fully generalized conjugate heat transfer, Droplet deposition, bouncing, splashing models, and, Film transport and breakup.

Gears↗
NASA NTRS2014

The LBTI Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems (HOSTS) Survey: a Key NASA Science Program on the Road to Exoplanet Imaging Missions (SPIE Proceedings 2)

Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) will survey nearby stars for faint exozodiacal dust (exozodi). This warm circumstellar dust, analogous to the interplanetary dust found in the vicinity of the Earth in our own system, is produced in comet breakups and asteroid collisions. Emission and or scattered light from the exozodi will be the major source of astrophysical noise for a future space telescope aimed at direct imaging and spectroscopy of terrestrial planets (exo- Earths) around nearby stars. About 20 of nearby field stars have cold dust coming from planetesimals at large distances from the stars (Eiroa et al. 2013, AA, 555, A11; Siercho et al. 2014, ApJ, 785, 33). Much less is known about exozodi; current detection limits for individual stars are at best 500 times our solar system's level (aka. 500 zodi). LBTI-HOSTS will be the first survey capable of measuring exozodi at the 10 zodi level (3). Detections of warm dust will also reveal new information about planetary system architectures and evolution. We will describe the motivation for the survey and progress on target selection, not only the actual stars likely to be observed by such a mission but also those whose observation will enable sensible extrapolations for stars that will not be observed with LBTI. We briefly describe the detection of the debris disk around Crv, which is the first scientific result from the LBTI coming from the commissioning of the instrument in December 2013, shortly after the first time the fringes were stabilized.

exozodiacal dust↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implications of Arctic Sea Ice Decline for the Earth System

Arctic sea ice decline has led to an amplification of surface warming and is projected to continue to decline from anthropogenic forcing, although the exact timing of ice-free summers is uncertain owing to large natural variability. Sea ice reductions affect surface heating patterns and the atmospheric pressure distribution, which may alter midlatitude extreme weather patterns. Increased light penetration and nutrient availability during spring from earlier ice breakup enhances primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas. Ice-obligate marine mammals may be losers, whereas seasonally migrant species may be winners from rapid sea ice decline. Tundra greening is occurring across most of the Arctic, driven primarily by warming temperatures, and is displaying complex spatial patterns that are likely tied to other factors. Sea ice changes are affecting greenhouse gas exchanges as well as halogen chemistry in the Arctic. This review highlights the heterogeneous nature of Arctic change, which is vital for researchers to better understand.

Decline↗
NASA NTRS2015

Characterization of Oribtal Debris via Hyper-Velocity Ground-Based Tests

Existing DoD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In order to update and improve the break-up models and the NASA Size Estimation Model (SEM) for events involving more modern satellite designs, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has worked in collaboration with the University of Florida to replicate a hypervelocity impact using a satellite built with modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques. The spacecraft, called DebriSat, was intended to be a representative of modern LEO satellites and all major designs decisions were reviewed and approved by subject matter experts at Aerospace Corporation. DebriSat is composed of 7 major subsystems including attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. All fragments down to 2 mm is size will be characterized via material, size, shape, bulk density, and the associated data will be stored in a database for multiple users to access. Laboratory radar and optical measurements will be performed on a subset of fragments to provide a better understanding of the data products from orbital debris acquired from ground-based radars and telescopes. The resulting data analysis from DebriSat will be used to update break-up models and develop the first optical SEM in conjunction with updates into the current NASA SEM. The characterization of the fragmentation will be discussed in the subsequent presentation.

Cowardin, H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Imaging System for Automated Characteristic Length Measurement of Debrisat Fragments

The debris fragments generated by DebriSat's hypervelocity impact test are currently being processed and characterized through an effort of NASA and USAF. The debris characteristics will be used to update satellite breakup models. In particular, the physical dimensions of the debris fragments must be measured to provide characteristic lengths for use in these models. Calipers and commercial 3D scanners were considered as measurement options, but an automated imaging system was ultimately developed to measure debris fragments. By automating the entire process, the measurement results are made repeatable and the human factor associated with calipers and 3D scanning is eliminated. Unlike using calipers to measure, the imaging system obtains non-contact measurements to avoid damaging delicate fragments. Furthermore, this fully automated measurement system minimizes fragment handling, which reduces the potential for fragment damage during the characterization process. In addition, the imaging system reduces the time required to determine the characteristic length of the debris fragment. In this way, the imaging system can measure the tens of thousands of DebriSat fragments at a rate of about six minutes per fragment, compared to hours per fragment in NASA's current 3D scanning measurement approach. The imaging system utilizes a space carving algorithm to generate a 3D point cloud of the article being measured and a custom developed algorithm then extracts the characteristic length from the point cloud. This paper describes the measurement process, results, challenges, and future work of the imaging system used for automated characteristic length measurement of DebriSat fragments.

Moraguez, Mathew↗