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At least 973 records · Page 54

Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

convection↗

Interpolating Fields of Carbon Monoxide Data Using a Hybrid Statistical-Physical Model

Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a pollutant gas of which the US congress has mandated regular monitoring, and satellite sensors can be used to retrieve regional concentrations of CO over several vertical layers. However, CO at cloudy locations cannot be observed and have to be estimated from the observed data set, resulting in an interpolation problem. The current state-of-the-art solution is to combine prior information, computed by a deterministic physical model, with observations. However, the deterministic model may introduce uncertainties that do not derive from the data. While sharing certain features with the physical model, this paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for interpolating CO on a 3-dimensional spatial grid, across time. To our knowledge such a model has not been considered before. The model is applied to a hypothetical air-quality monitoring scenario, and is compared to existing interpolation methods. The results provide motivation for the use of the statistical model for regional to local applications.

Arellano, A. A.↗

Assessing fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO 2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO 2 by measuring radiocarbon ( 14 C) in CO 2 , an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014-15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO 2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO 2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO 2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO 2 emissions in 2014-15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO 2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil Moisture Controls on Rainfall and Temperature Variability: A Modeler Searches Through Observational Data

The degree to which atmospheric processes respond to variations in soil moisture - a potentially important but largely untapped element of subseasonal to seasonal prediction - can be determined easily and directly for an atmospheric model but cannot be determined directly for nature through an analysis of observations. In atmospheric models) directions of causality can be artificially manipulated; we can avoid difficulties associated with the fact that atmospheric variations have a much larger impact on land state variations than vice-versa. In nature) on the other hand) the dominant direction of causality (the atmosphere forcing the ground) cannot be artificially "turned off") and the statistics associated with this dominant direction overwhelm those of the feedback signal. Observational data) however) do allow a number of indirect measures of landatmosphere feedback. This seminar reports on a series of joint analyses of observational and model data designed to illuminate the degree of land-atmosphere feedback present in the real world. The indirect measures do in fact suggest that feedback in nature, though small) is significant - enough to warrant the development of realistic land initialization strategies for subseasonal and seasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

The EFT-1 mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on onboard altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. There are four primary error sources impacting the sensed pressure: sensor errors, Analog to Digital conversion errors, aerodynamic errors, and atmosphere modeling errors. This last error source is induced by the conversion from pressure to altitude in the vehicle flight software, which requires an atmosphere model such as the US Standard 1976 Atmosphere model. There are several secondary error sources as well, such as waves, tides, and latencies in data transmission. Typically, for error budget calculations it is assumed that all error sources are independent, normally distributed variables. Thus, the initial approach to developing the EFT-1 barometric altimeter altitude error budget was to create an itemized error budget under these assumptions. This budget was to be verified by simulation using high fidelity models of the vehicle hardware and software. The simulation barometric altimeter model includes hardware error sources and a data-driven model of the aerodynamic errors expected to impact the pressure in the midbay compartment in which the sensors are located. The aerodynamic model includes the pressure difference between the midbay compartment and the free stream pressure as a function of altitude, oscillations in sensed pressure due to wake effects, and an acoustics model capturing fluctuations in pressure due to motion of the passive vents separating the barometric altimeters from the outside of the vehicle.

Brown, Denise L.↗

Coupled atmosphere-ocean models of Titan's past

The behavior and possible past evolution of fully coupled atmosphere and ocean model of Titan are investigated. It is found that Titan's surface temperature was about 20 K cooler at 4 Gyr ago and will be about 5 K warmer 0.5 Gyr in the future. The change in solar luminosity and the conversion of oceanic CH4 to C2H6 drive the evolution of the ocean and atmosphere over time. Titan appears to have experienced a frozen epoch about 3 Gyr ago independent of whether an ocean is present or not. This finding may have important implications for understanding the inventory of Titan's volatile compounds.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

Dissociative Recombination (DR) and Associative Ionization (AI) Cross Section Calculations for the NO+ + e yields N + O (2D+3P, 2P+3P, and 2D+1D) Reaction for Atmospheric Entry Modeling

During entry of a space craft into Earth atmosphere, the flow surrounding the vehicle becomes partially ionized leading to significant cation and free-electron production. Subsequently, electron impact excitation and dissociation form radiating excited state species that contribute to the heat load on the vehicle. While experimental data on selected total cross sections are available, few experiments address the need for accurate AI cross sections for metastable atomic states at the high temperatures realized in atmospheric re-entry. In order to maintain desired safety margins during atmospheric entry of a space vehicle, chemical reaction models need to accurately account for this process. For the present study, we have computed vibrationally resolved cross sections for the DR of NO+ for electron energies between 0.01 to 10 eV and apply microscopic reversibility to obtain the AI cross sections and rate coefficients. For the DR cross section calculations, we use state-of-the-art MRCI potential energy curves. The resulting adiabatic potential curves are transformed to a diabatic representation, which is used in time-dependent wave packet calculations to describe the nuclear motion of the dissociating cation upon collision with an electron. Based on the wave function evolution in time, these calculations provide T-matrix and cross sections for the DR including recombination into the low energy metastable atomic states. The DR and AI rate coefficients are compared with the available experimental data.

Ewa Papajak↗

NARROW-K-BAND OBSERVATIONS OF THE GJ 1214 SYSTEM

GJ 1214 is a nearby M dwarf star that hosts a transiting super-Earth-size planet, making this system an excellent target for atmospheric studies. Most studies find that the transmission spectrum of GJ 1214b is flat, which favors either a high mean molecular weight or cloudy/hazy hydrogen (H) rich atmosphere model. Photometry at short wavelengths (<0.7 μm) and in the K band can discriminate the most between these different atmosphere models for GJ 1214b, but current observations do not have sufficiently high precision. We present photometry of seven transits of GJ 1214b through a narrow K-band (2.141 μm) filter with the Wide Field Camera on the 3.8 m United Kingdom Infrared Telescope. Our photometric precision is typically 1.7 × 10{sup –3} (for a single transit), comparable with other ground-based observations of GJ 1214b. We measure a planet-star radius ratio of 0.1158 ± 0.0013, which, along with other studies, also supports a flat transmission spectrum for GJ 1214b. Since this does not exclude a scenario where GJ 1214b has an H-rich envelope with heavy elements that are sequestered below a cloud/haze layer, we compare K-band observations with models of H{sub 2} collision-induced absorption in an atmosphere for a range of temperatures. While we find no evidence for deviation from a flat spectrum (slope s = 0.0016 ± 0.0038), an H{sub 2}-dominated upper atmosphere (<60 mbar) cannot be excluded. More precise observations at <0.7 μm and in the K band, as well as a uniform analysis of all published data, would be useful for establishing more robust limits on atmosphere models for GJ 1214b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Verification and validation of atmospheric transport models with the UF Training Reactor

The University of Florida Training Reactor (UFTR) is a 100-kW ARGONAUT type reactor with a unique design such that a large volume of air passes through the core, producing and releasing significant quantities of 41 Ar. Once released, the radioargon is dispersed throughout the atmosphere and decays by a 1294 keV gamma ray emission. This quantified, validated, and controlled 41 Ar plume can be utilized to verify and validate atmospheric transport models (ATMs). This is accomplished by coupling an ATM with MCNP and comparing the results to experimental measurements. For this study, an in-house developed Gaussian dispersion model and the EPA approved Gaussian model AERMOD were coupled with MCNP to simulate the results of a six hour measurement taken on May 8th, 2018. For the measurements and simulations, a grid of seven NaI detectors were placed in four different rooftop locations near the UFTR plume stack. With easterly winds dominating during the morning and early afternoon, both the measurement results and simulations displayed a higher 41 Ar photon count rate on the detectors west of the plume stack throughout the day. Overall, the AERMOD simulations produced better results when compared to the in-house model, particularly for the detectors placed east and west of the plume stack. While some of the AERMOD data showed a strong correlation with the measurements, the results remain inconsistent. Here, due to the varying accuracy of the simulation results, it is theorized that the relationship between measurement results and simulations will improve with the use of localized weather information or the utilization of non-Gaussian dispersion models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

HIP 38939B: A NEW BENCHMARK T DWARF IN THE GALACTIC PLANE DISCOVERED WITH Pan-STARRS1

We report the discovery of a wide brown dwarf companion to the mildly metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -0.24), low Galactic latitude (b = 1.{sup 0}88) K4V star HIP 38939. The companion was discovered by its common proper motion with the primary and its red optical (Pan-STARRS1) and blue infrared (Two Micron All Sky Survey) colors. It has a projected separation of 1630 AU and a near-infrared spectral type of T4.5. As such it is one of only three known companions to a main-sequence star which have early/mid T spectral types of (the others being HN Peg B and {epsilon} Indi B). Using chromospheric activity we estimate an age for the primary of 900{+-}{sup 1900}{sub 600} Myr. This value is also in agreement with the age derived from the star's weak ROSAT detection. Comparison with evolutionary models for this age range indicates that HIP 38939B falls in the mass range 38 {+-} 20 M{sub Jup} with an effective temperature range of 1090 {+-} 60 K. Fitting our spectrum with atmospheric models gives a best-fitting temperature of 1100 K. We include our object in an analysis of the population of benchmark T dwarfs and find that while older atmospheric models appeared to overpredict the temperature of the coolest objects compared to evolutionary models, more recent atmospheric models provide better agreement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parameterization of IR cooling in a middle atmosphere dynamics model. I - Effects on the zonally averaged circulation

A computationally efficient two-stream parameterization of IR cooling is developed for a middle atmosphere dynamics model. The parameterization combines the monochromatic feature of an emissivity formulation with the computational simplicity of a single spatial integral to evaluate the monochromatic transfer equation. Calculations show strong radiative control of the mesopause region and the need for substantial deceleration of the mean zonal winds. Calculated temperatures show good agreement in the summer hemisphere where planetary wave activity is negligible, but in the polar night of the winter hemisphere they are about 30 K too cold, which suggests planetary wave heating must make up the deficit. With observed ozone densities, globally averaged radiative equilibrium temperatures in the 65-75 km region are too cold and an additional heat source about 1 K/day is required.

Apruzese, J. P.↗

Modeling the Atmospheric Phase Effects of a Digital Antenna Array Communications System

In an antenna array system such as that used in the Deep Space Network (DSN) for satellite communication, it is often necessary to account for the effects due to the atmosphere. Typically, the atmosphere induces amplitude and phase fluctuations on the transmitted downlink signal that invalidate the assumed stationarity of the signal model. The degree to which these perturbations affect the stationarity of the model depends both on parameters of the atmosphere, including wind speed and turbulence strength, and on parameters of the communication system, such as the sampling rate used. In this article, we focus on modeling the atmospheric phase fluctuations in a digital antenna array communications system. Based on a continuous-time statistical model for the atmospheric phase effects, we show how to obtain a related discrete-time model based on sampling the continuous-time process. The effects of the nonstationarity of the resulting signal model are investigated using the sample matrix inversion (SMI) algorithm for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) equalization of the received signal

Tkacenko, A.↗

Skill Assessment of a Spectral Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Model

Ocean phytoplankton, detrital material, and water absorb and scatter light spectrally. The Ocean- Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is intended to provide surface irradiance over the oceans with sufficient spectral resolution to support ocean ecology, biogeochemistry, and heat exchange investigations, and of sufficient duration to support inter-annual and decadal investigations. OASIM total surface irradiance (integrated 200 nm to 4 microns) was compared to in situ data and three publicly available global data products at monthly 1-degree resolution. OASIM spectrally-integrated surface irradiance had root mean square (RMS) difference= 20.1 W/sq m (about 11%), bias=1.6 W/sq m (about 0.8%), regression slope= 1.01 and correlation coefficient= 0.89, when compared to 2322 in situ observations. OASIM had the lowest bias of any of the global data products evaluated (ISCCP-FD, NCEP, and ISLSCP 11), and the best slope (nearest to unity). It had the second best RMS, and the third best correlation coefficient. OASIM total surface irradiance compared well with ISCCP-FD (RMS= 20.7 W/sq m; bias=-11.4 W/sq m, r=0.98) and ISLSCP II (RMS =25.2 W/sq m; bias= -13.8 W/sq m; r=0.97), but less well with NCEP (RMS =43.0 W/sq m ;bias=-22.6 W/sq m; x=0.91). Comparisons of OASIM photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) with PAR derived from SeaWiFS showed low bias (-1.8 mol photons /sq m/d, or about 5%), RMS (4.25 mol photons /sq m/d ' or about 12%), near unity slope (1.03) and high correlation coefficient (0.97). Coupled with previous estimates of clear sky spectral irradiance in OASIM (6.6% RMS at 1 nm resolution), these results suggest that OASIM provides reasonable estimates of surface broadband and spectral irradiance in the oceans, and can support studies on ocean ecosystems, carbon cycling, and heat exchange.

Gregg, Watson, W.↗

Derivation of phase functions from multiply scattered sunlight transmitted through a hazy atmosphere

The intensity of sunlight multiply scattered in model atmospheres is derived from the equation of radiative transfer by an analytical small-angle approximation. The approximate analytical solutions are compared to rigorous numerical solutions of the same problem. Results obtained from an aerosol-laden model atmosphere are presented. Agreement between the rigorous and the approximate solutions is found to be within a few per cent. The analytical solution to the problem which considers an aerosol-laden atmosphere is then inverted to yield a phase function which describes a single scattering event at small angles. The effect of noisy data on the derived phase function is discussed.

Weinman, J. A.↗

Infrared radiation models for atmospheric methane

Mutually consistent line-by-line, narrow-band and broad-band infrared radiation models are presented for methane, a potentially important anthropogenic trace gas within the atmosphere. Comparisons of the modeled band absorptances with existing laboratory data produce the best agreement when, within the band models, spurious band intensities are used which are consistent with the respective laboratory data sets, but which are not consistent with current knowledge concerning the intensity of the infrared fundamental band of methane. This emphasizes the need for improved laboratory band absorptance measurements. Since, when applied to atmospheric radiation calculations, the line-by-line model does not require the use of scaling approximations, the mutual consistency of the band models provides a means of appraising the accuracy of scaling procedures. It is shown that Curtis-Godson narrow-band and Chan-Tien broad-band scaling provide accurate means of accounting for atmospheric temperature and pressure variations.

Cess, R. D.↗

A Mercury Model of Atmospheric Transport

Using the particle transport code Mercury, accurate models were built of the two sources used in Operation BREN, a series of radiation experiments performed by the United States during the 1960s. In the future, these models will be used to validate Mercury’s ability to simulate atmospheric transport.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development and application of an atmospheric turbulence model for use in flight simulators in flight simulators

The influence of simulated turbulence on aircraft handling qualities was investigated. Pilot opinion of the handling qualities of a light general aviation aircraft were evaluated in a motion-base simulator using a simulated turbulence environment. A realistic representation of turbulence disturbances is described in terms of rms intensity and scale length and their random variations with time. The time histories generated by the proposed turbulence models showed characteristics which appear to be more similar to real turbulence than the frequently-used Gaussian turbulence model. In addition, the proposed turbulence models can flexibly accommodate changes in atmospheric conditions and be easily implemented in flight simulator studies. Six turbulence time histories, including the conventional Gaussian model, were used in an IFR-tracking task. The realism of each of the turbulence models and the handling qualities of the simulated airplane were evaluated. Analysis of pilot opinions shows that at approximately the same rms intensities of turbulence, the handling quality ratings transit from the satisfactory level, for the simple Gaussian model, to an unacceptable level for more realistic and compositely structured turbulence models.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

On the Decadal Modes of Oscillation of an Idealized Ocean-atmosphere System

Axially-symmetric, linear, free modes of global, primitive equation, ocean-atmosphere models are examined to see if they contain decadal (10 to 30 years) oscillation time scale modes. A two-layer ocean model and a two-level atmospheric model are linearized around axially-symmetric basic states containing mean meridional circulations in the ocean and the atmosphere. Uncoupled and coupled, axially-symmetric modes of oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system are calculated. The main conclusion is that linearized, uncoupled and coupled, ocean-atmosphere systems can contain axially-symmetric, free modes of variability on decadal time scales. These results have important implications for externally-forced decadal climate variability.

Mehta, Vikram M.↗