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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54

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DOE OSTI2024

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 11. Climate Adaptation and Resilience

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89265 for the French translation of this document.

adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Residual estimation for grid modification in wall-modeled large eddy simulation using unstructured high-order methods

Here, the accuracy and computational cost of a large eddy simulation are highly dependent on the computational grid. Building optimal grids manually from a priori knowledge is not feasible in most practical use cases; instead, solution-adaptive strategies can provide a robust and cost-efficient method to generate a grid with the desired accuracy. We adapt the residual estimation algorithm developed by Toosi and Larsson for Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements Methods (DGSEM) to guide the grid-adaptation process. The core of the method is the computation of the estimated modeling residual using the polynomial basis functions used in DGSEM, and the averaging of the estimated residual over each element. The final method is assessed in multiple channel flow test cases and for the transonic flow over an airfoil, in both cases making use of mortar interfaces between elements with hanging nodes. The method is found to be robust and reliable, and to provide solutions on grids with significantly fewer elements at comparable accuracy compared to when using human-generated grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Off-Lattice Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations of Mechanically Driven Polymers

Here, we develop off-lattice simulations of semiflexible polymer chains subjected to applied mechanical forces by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our approach models the polymer as a chain of fixed length bonds, with configurations updated through adaptive nonlocal Monte Carlo moves. This proposed method enables precise calculation of a polymer’s response to a wide range of mechanical forces, which traditional on-lattice models cannot achieve. Our approach has shown excellent agreement with theoretical predictions of persistence length and end-to-end distance in quiescent states as well as stretching distances under tension. Moreover, our model eliminates the orientational bias present in on-lattice models, which significantly impacts calculations such as the scattering function, a crucial technique for revealing the polymer conformation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Langmuir probe system in the Wendelstein 7-X test divertor

Here, the design and evaluation of the Langmuir probe system used in the first divertor operation phase of Wendelstein 7-X is described. The probes are integrated into the target plates and have individually facetted surfaces to keep the angle of incidence of the magnetic field within an appropriate range for different magnetic configurations. Multiple models for the derivation of plasma parameters from current–voltage characteristics are introduced. These are analyzed with regard to their assumptions and limitations, generalized, and adapted to our use case. A detailed comparison is made to determine the most suitable model. It is found that the choice of model has a large impact, for example, resulting in a change in the inferred temperatures of up to a factor two. This evaluation is implemented in a Bayesian modeling framework and automated to allow for joint analysis with other diagnostics and a replacement of ad hoc assumptions. We rigorously treat parameter uncertainties, revealing strong correlations between them. General and flexible model formulations permit an expansion to additional effects.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Cyber-Intrusion Detection in a Smart Grid

The evolution of the power grid has brought increasing deployment of advance metering infrastructure, penetration of intelligent electronic devices, and integration of physical power system components with information and communications technologies. With the fast-expanding connectivity, cyber vulnerabilities arise due to the use of internet-based communication systems. These systems are targets of cyber-intrusions which attempt to disturb the normal power system functions. Traditional intrusion detection algorithms have been developed without an explicit model of the cyber components. In this paper, an algorithm to detect false data injections in the power system is proposed considering both cyber and physical models of the power system. The algorithm is based on an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) which collects information from state variables of the cyber-physical system to meet the performance requirements of the grid. Simulations of the proposed approach using the IEEE 13-bus test system validate the effectiveness of this artificial intelligence-based algorithm.

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), cyb↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elasto-viscoplastic fast Fourier transform modeling framework for assessing microstructural effects on stress intensity factors characterizing fracture toughness

A large-strain elasto-viscoplastic fast Fourier transform (LS-EVPFFT) model with non-periodic (NP) velocity-based boundary conditions is adapted to simulate the sensitivity of stress intensity factors on microstructure for 304L stainless steel. The material was characterized via electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) serial-sectioning to obtain a measured 3-D microstructural cell to perform simulations. The NP-LS-EVPFFT model, including the simulation setup and boundary conditions, was verified using a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model. To this end, the generation of meshes of notched specimens was developed, which involved creating Python scripts for mesh “cutting” in Abaqus, and Sculpt scripts in Cubit for meshing of the measured microstructural cell processed with DREAM.3D. The complexity of the mesh preparation highlighted the advantages of the FFT-based model, which circumvents the mesh generation process. Given the efficiency of the FFT-based model, statistical distribution of stress intensity factors in function of crystal orientation at the crack tip, grain structure, and crystallographic texture surrounding the crack tip were predicted. Further, the distributions reveal about 10% variation of stress intensity factors with microstructure with the most significant sensitivity found to be the crystal orientation at the crack tip. The methodology developed in this work is discussed as a practical simulation tool for predicting the sensitivity of stress intensity factors on microstructural variability in metallic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Epistasis and evolution: recent advances and an outlook for prediction

As organisms evolve, the effects of mutations change as a result of epistatic interactions with other mutations accumulated along the line of descent. This can lead to shifts in adaptability or robustness that ultimately shape subsequent evolution. Here, we review recent advances in measuring, modeling, and predicting epistasis along evolutionary trajectories, both in microbial cells and single proteins. We focus on simple patterns of global epistasis that emerge in this data, in which the effects of mutations can be predicted by a small number of variables. The emergence of these patterns offers promise for efforts to model epistasis and predict evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 7. Elements of Business Models for Off-Grid Solar

business↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data Processing Pipeline for Socio-Technical Network Analysis [Slides]

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Measures of network complexity, such as degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection may be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Making of a Metric: Co-Producing Decision-Relevant Climate Science

Developing decision-relevant science for adaptation requires the identification of climatic parameters that are both actionable for practitioners as well as tractable for modelers. In many sectors, these decision-relevant climatic metrics and the approaches that enable their identification remain largely unknown. “Co-production” of science with scientists and decision-makers is one potential way to identify these metrics, but there is little research describing specific and successful co-production approaches. This paper examines the negotiations and outcomes from Project Hyperion, wherein scientists and water managers jointly developed decision-relevant climatic metrics for adaptive water management. We identify successful co-production strategies by analyzing the project’s numerous back-and-forth engagements and tracing the evolution of the science during these engagements. We found that effective mediation between scientists and managers needed dedicated “boundary spanners” with significant modeling expertise. Translating practitioners’ information needs into tractable climatic metrics required direct and indirect methods of eliciting knowledge. We identified four indirect methods that were particularly salient for extracting tacitly held knowledge and enabling shared learning: developing a hierarchical framework linking management issues with metrics, starting discussions from the planning challenges, collaboratively exploring the planning relevance of new scientific capabilities, and using analogies of other “good” metrics. The decision-relevant metrics we developed provide insights into advancing adaptation-relevant climate science in the water sector. The co-production strategies we identified can be used to design and implement productive scientist–decision-maker interactions. Overall, the approaches and metrics we developed can help climate science to expand in new and more use-inspired directions.

Planning↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of Manifold-Based Combustion Models in a Highly Scalable Low Mach Number Reacting Flow Solver: Preprint

Manifold-based representations of the thermochemistry are often employed in conjunction with large eddy eimulation (LES) to lower the cost of combustion simulations. This work describes steps taken to implement this modeling approach in PeleLM, a scalable and performance-portable low Mach number flow solver. Most significantly, this includes adapting the projection method used by PeleLM to satisfy the mass conservation constraint for use with manifold-based models. The implementation is designed to be general across manifold-based models, including both those that employ traditional tabulation and those that employ neural networks. An initial demonstration for simple test cases is presented and will be used for performance assessment.

high-performance computing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiphysics Degradation Modeling of Energy Storage Materials via RKPM with a Neural Network-Enhancement

In energy storage materials, strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling, resulting in reduced performance and service life. A coupled electro-chemo-mechanical reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) formulation is developed, and a patch-test is formulated to certify optimal convergence of the proposed RKPM method for the coupled physics system. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), pixel-based model construction by RKPM is then used to represent the complex material microstructures for modeling the coupled physics of these systems. Further, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1, 2] is introduced to effectively model damage and crack propagation in the material microstructures; the location, orientation, and solution transition near a localization are automatically captured by superimposed block-level NN optimizations. This NN enrichment approach allows for effective modeling of localizations via a fixed background discretization, relieving tedious efforts for adaptive refinement in traditional mesh-based methods. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. Reference: [1] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, pp 4422-4454, https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040, 2022. [2] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., "A Neural Network-Based Enrichment of Reproducing Kernel Approximation for Modeling Brittle Fracture", Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering Vol. 410, 116590, 2024.

electro-chemo-mechanical coupling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seamlessly joining length scales: From atomistic thermal graphs to anisotropic continuum conductivity

Thermal transport in complex solids is governed by local structure, defects, and anisotropy, yet most continuum models still rely on oversimplified and homogenized conductivities. Here, we bridge atomistic and continuum descriptions by building finite element (FE) models directly from the site-projected thermal conductivity (SPTC), an atomic-level decomposition of the Green–Kubo thermal conductivity. We introduce a toolkit, the “Simulator Collection for Atomic-to-Continuum Scales (SCACS)”, which uses a graph neural network to predict SPTC on large atomic structures, coarse-grains these fields into anisotropic conductivity tensors, and embeds them into the heat-flow FE equation with a customized, anisotropy-aware adaptive mesh refinement scheme. Applied to silicon nanostructures, the resulting FE models act as representative volume elements, reproduce bulk conductivities, and capture interfacial and defect-driven anisotropy while maintaining thermodynamic consistency. Additionally, SCACS predicts experimental conductance trends and fields. This work demonstrates a general route for transferring atomistic transport information into device-scale thermal simulations with physics-based approximations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

A transfer learning approach to energy-efficient control of small and medium-sized commercial buildings

Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven and adaptive approach to optimize building energy use while satisfying occupant comfort. This powerful tool does not need any prior knowledge about the environment and system it is optimizing and can adapt its policy based on the changes in captures. Like any other data-driven tool, it faces high training costs due to the extensive agent-environment interactions required to capture long-term building dynamics and user comfort. Transfer learning, particularly policy distillation, offers a promising way to accelerate training by leveraging pretrained RL agents in different building and system types. Here, this study investigates online student distillation, in which the student model updates its neural network weights using outputs from teacher models. The work introduces a student distillation strategy designed for efficient knowledge transfer, along with a teacher selection method that ensures high-quality guidance. The approach is validated using a highly calibrated whole building energy model for a small/medium commercial building test facility. Results show substantial reductions in training time and data requirements while surpassing the performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36, an advanced rule-based control strategy. The distilled RL model required 45% less data and achieved 20% higher cumulative rewards than a state-of-the-art RL model, with faster convergence and lower energy consumption. These outcomes demonstrate that effective transfer learning enables a scalable and data-efficient energy management solution for commercial buildings.

ASHRAE guideline 36↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗