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At least 955 records · Page 53

Improving the representation of shallow cumulus convection with the simplified-higher-order-closure–mass-flux (SHOC+MF v1.0) approach

Abstract. Parameterized boundary layer turbulence and moist convection remain some of the largest sources of uncertainty in general circulation models. High-resolution climate modeling aims to reduce that uncertainty by explicitly attempting to resolve deep moist convective motions. An example of such a model is the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) with a target global resolution of 3.25 km, allowing for a more accurate representation of complex mesoscale deep convective dynamics. Yet, small-scale planetary boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection still need to be parameterized, which in SCREAM is accomplished through the turbulent-kinetic-energy-based (TKE-based) simplified higher-order closure (SHOC) – a simplified version of the assumed-double-Gaussian-PDF (probability density function) higher-order-closure method. In this paper, we implement a stochastic-multiplume mass-flux (MF) parameterization of dry and shallow convection in SCREAM to go beyond the limitations of double-Gaussian-PDF closures and couple it to SHOC (SHOC+MF). The new parameterization implemented in a single-column model type version of SCREAM produces results for two shallow cumulus convection cases (marine and continental shallow convection) that agree well with the reference data from large-eddy simulations, thus improving the general representation of the thermodynamic quantities and their turbulent fluxes as well as cloud macrophysics in the model. Furthermore, SHOC+MF parameterization shows weak sensitivity to the vertical grid resolution and model time step.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

H-2-SALT: Storing Fossil Energy as Hydrogen in Salt Caverns

Hydrogen storage in subsurface caverns is known as perhaps largest and longest-term energy storage system. While few such systems are currently in service (e.g., Texas; Teesside, UK), they are envisioned as being a pillar of the current energy transition that will allow intermittent power production from renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar) to be balanced with demand at grid-scale. In addition, hydrogen energy storage can allow existing fossil power plants to run more economically either by minimizing startups/shutdowns or by allowing them to take advantage of arbitrage. Finally, stored hydrogen can feed a variety of non-power users such as pipeline gas, heating, transportation, and manufacturing. The H-2-SALT paper study assessed the feasibility of a power-to-hydrogen system utilizing salt cavern storage of hydrogen in bedded salt in central Kansas, where over 750 such caverns have been constructed to date, of which approximately 350 are still in service. Legacy well and salt cavern data were collected to develop a regional geological database for two sites in Central Kansas and adjacent areas for use in more detailed geological and geomechanical site characterization efforts. This study found commercial viability and competitiveness of large-scale, electrolytic H 2 production and storage ($1.78 per kg H 2 ) that can be used for both electrical power supply to the grid during high-priced electricity periods (including co-firing with NG and fuel cell power production) and sale of H 2 for various industries, such as petrochemicals or transportation. The commercial potential of the H-2-SALT system is also relatively high because each of its components operate commercially today. It is recommended that a stratigraphic test well be drilled to collect log data and core samples that can reduce uncertainty surrounding geological and geomechanical properties of the salt beds that will be required for further cavern and energy storage system design studies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Online learning of quadratic manifolds from streaming data for nonlinear dimensionality reduction and nonlinear model reduction

Here, this work introduces an online greedy method for constructing quadratic manifolds from streaming data, designed to enable in situ analysis of numerical simulation data on the Petabyte scale. Unlike traditional batch methods, which require all data to be available upfront and take multiple passes over the data, the proposed online greedy method incrementally updates quadratic manifolds in one pass as data points are received, eliminating the need for expensive disk input/output operations as well as storing and loading data points once they have been processed. A range of numerical examples demonstrate that the online greedy method learns accurate quadratic manifold embeddings while being capable of processing data that far exceed common disk input/output capabilities and volumes as well as main-memory sizes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EGS Collab Experiment 1 Stimulation Data

Stimulation data from Experiment 1 of EGS Collab, which occurred on the 4850 ft level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF). A detailed description of the stimulation data is provided in the StimulationDataNotes.docx and is also available on the EGS Collab Wiki. A Meta Data Cheat Sheet, which describes all of the channels in the Raw CSV files, is available as well. Note that this cheat sheet is a comprehensive meta data descriptor and channels were added as the experiment evolved. This means that some columns may not be populated in early data. Additionally, we have included the chat logs from these experiments. The experiments were broadcast over teleconferencing software and real-time data displays were available to remote observers. The logs contain important observations from those personnel performing the experiment and the remote contributors. Finally, we have included summary and individual plots of all of the data for the user to compare to.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Development of Monitoring Techniques for Binderjet Additive Manufacturing of Silicon Carbide Structures

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is leveraging additive manufacturing (AM) technologies to fabricate nuclear components to be assembled into a fully functional microreactor core. Compared with traditional manufacturing technologies, AM technologies allow (1) observation of the manufacturing process at a much higher resolution in real-time using in situ monitoring technologies to capture the sensor signature that scientifically describes each event occurring over time and space and (2) validation of the manufacturing process quality using domain-informed data analytics techniques as a potential qualification and certification methodology for the final component. This report provides an update on the program work on binder jetting in situ process monitoring and associated data analytics results, as well as sample placement and tracking for the subsequent chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) process. Examples are provided to illustrate the progress. Elements of the Digital Thread and data management are discussed in the main document, and an extensive supplemental material section is provided detailing the Digital Platform, as well as its implementation and components. In conclusion the path forward for the next fiscal year is discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparison between mirror Langmuir probe and gas-puff imaging measurements of intermittent fluctuations in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

Statistical properties of the scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations are studied in ohmically heated plasmas in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. For the first time, plasma fluctuations as well as parameters that describe the fluctuations are compared across measurements from a mirror Langmuir probe (MLP) and from gas-puff imaging (GPI) that sample the same plasma discharge. This comparison is complemented by an analysis of line emission time-series data, synthesized from the MLP electron density and temperature measurements. The fluctuations observed by the MLP and GPI typically display relative fluctuation amplitudes of order unity together with positively skewed and flattened probability density functions. Such data time series are well described by an established stochastic framework that models the data as a superposition of uncorrelated, two-sided exponential pulses. The most important parameter of the process is the intermittency parameter, $γ=τ_d/τ_w$, where τd denotes the duration time of a single pulse and $τ_w$ gives the average waiting time between consecutive pulses. In this study we show, using a new deconvolution method, that these parameters can be consistently estimated from different statistics of the data. We also show that the statistical properties of the data sampled by the MLP and GPI diagnostic are very similar. Finally, a synthetic GPI signal using only plasma parameters sampled by the MLP shows qualitatively different fluctuation statistics from the measured GPI signal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Observations and Modeling of Fiber-Optics Strain on Hydraulic Fracture Height Growth in HFTS-2

Understanding fracture height growth can be of great significance to optimizing field development and improving recovery. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) has provided a unique opportunity and an advanced dataset to allow us to observe and understand fracture geometries rigorously. Low frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS) data from a vertical well in HFTS-2 showed three key observations: (i) excessive upward height growth (>1000 ft) and limited downward growth of the hydraulic fractures during pumping, (ii) considerable additional upward fracture height growth (~300 ft) after well shut in, and (iii) very complex LF-DAS strain rate patterns for a small fiber-to-stage offset. Advanced geomechanical modeling was performed to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation and the resulting strain responses in the vertical direction. The modeling results demonstrated asymmetric upward and downward fracture height growths as observed in HFTS-2 with a similar upward height growth rate. Simulated waterfall plots of vertical strain rate showed distinct patterns for different fiber-to-fracture distances. The upward-growing fracture tip can be clearly identified by the interfaces between compressing and extending zones. It was also found that the complex strain rate patterns observed in HFTS-2 for small fiber-stage offsets were not caused by the mechanical layering but possibly result from the simultaneous propagation of multiple hydraulic fractures at different rates. Furthermore, the simulation results improved the understating of the HFTS-2 LF-DAS data and the simulated strain rate patterns could also serve as templates for fracture height interpretation from LF-DAS data in future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A preference for cold dark matter over Superfluid Dark Matter in local Milky Way data

There are many well-known correlations between dark matter and baryons that exist on galactic scales. These correlations can essentially be encompassed by a simple scaling relation between observed and baryonic accelerations, historically known as the Mass Discrepancy Acceleration Relation (MDAR). The existence of such a relation has prompted many theories that attempt to explain the correlations by invoking additional fundamental forces on baryons. The standard lore has been that a theory that reduces to the MDAR on galaxy scales but behaves like cold dark matter (CDM) on larger scales provides an excellent fit to data, since CDM is desirable on scales of clusters and above. However, this statement should be revised in light of recent results showing that a fundamental force that reproduces the MDAR is challenged by local Milky Way dynamics and rotation curve data between 5–18 kpc. In this study, we test this claim on the example of Superfluid Dark Matter. We find that a standard CDM model is preferred over a static superfluid profile assuming a steady-state Galactic disk and discuss the robustness of this conclusion to disequilibrium effects. This preference is due to the fact that the superfluid model over-predicts vertical accelerations, even while reproducing galactic rotation curves. Our results establish an important criterion that any dark matter model must satisfy within the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simultaneous prediction of structural properties in epitaxially–grown GaN with quantum and conventional multi–output learning algorithms

Hundreds of GaN thin film crystal plasma–assisted molecular beam epitaxy synthesis experiment records spanning two decades were organized into a dataset correlating the growth experiment design parameters with discrete, binary determinations of crystallinity and surface morphology. Conventional data science techniques as well as both quantum and classical multi–output supervised machine learning algorithms were implemented to investigate the relationships between the operating parameter data and the structural figures of merit. Correlation coefficients, decision tree nodes, p–values, and SHAP values all support substrate temperature and gallium effusion cell conditions as being statistically significant for simultaneously influencing GaN crystallinity and surface morphology. Here, a conventional deep neural network learned best from the data, followed by a quantum–classical hybrid gradient boosting algorithm. When combined with calculations of uncertainty intervals based on VennAbers predictors, machine learning predictions of both structural properties show good agreement with results reported in published experimental literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

WELLBASE - An Interactive Platform for Wellbore Material Assessment

This project seeks to build an open-source wellbore material data repository with adequate material performance and contextual data to support Geological Carbon Storage (GCS). By appropriately evaluating the data types as mentioned earlier made available by the WELLBASE tool, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding well selections, risk assessment, and economic analysis for geologic carbon storage projects. Advanced Natural Language Processing models and other custom python scripts will be deployed in an automated process to extract unstructured data from documents, reports, and web applications and subsequently parse to more usable formats. The processed data will then be integrated into a robust and comprehensive database architecture, optimizing data accessibility, and usability for analytical purposes. The final data products will be accessible through a user-friendly visualization platform that will allow users to query and visualize the data, as well as download data in usable formats.

Tetteh, Daniel A.↗

TP099-CT-800DR Comparison Between SIRZ-2 and Surface Fit Method ($ρ_{e},Ζ_{e}$) Estimation

The primary objective of this test plan is to acquire dual-energy computed tomography (CT) data of 33 well-known specimens using the Leidos Reveal CT-80DR+ baggage scanner housed at LLNL (hereafter referred to as CT-80DR). These data sets will allow us to compare, for each specimen, the accuracy and precision of electron density ($ρ_{e}$) and effective atomic number ($Z_{e}$) estimates obtained from two different algorithmic methods— from TSL’s surface fits and from LLNL’s SIRZ-2 decomposition. A secondary objective is to determine how often it is necessary to acquire CT-80DR spectral response information.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessing pore network heterogeneity across multiple scales to inform CO2 injection models

Geologic heterogeneity is a key feature that must be considered when translations of scaled data are performed. This paper presents the assessment of geologic heterogeneity using a multiscale workflow that includes image analysis-based methods coupled with well log analysis to provide data in which fractals and machine learning methods estimate the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resource potential of a reservoir. The heterogeneity of rock properties of the complex Bell Creek reservoir in Montana, USA, was explored at the pore scale (~nm to mm), core scale (~mm to m), and well scale (~cm to m). The data used in this study included advanced image analysis of micro-CT (computed tomography) images (pore scale), thin sections (pore scale), plugs and core images (core scale) and well logs (well scale). The micro-CT images were segmented using a U-net segmentation approach into objects of pores and grains. Further, the segmented images were reconstructed into subvolumes of different sizes. Physical properties (porosity and permeability) and fractal dimensions were calculated for the various subvolumes, and Lorenz coefficient (Lc) values, a single parameter to describe the degree of heterogeneity within a pay zone section, were calculated from thin-section images and well logs. Porosity and fractal dimension values were used to estimate the 188-µm threshold of representative elementary volume (REV) in this study. Both the Lc and fractal dimension values were found to be negatively correlated. When these two parameters are combined, it is possible to discern differences in the complex porous networks of the samples analyzed in this study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Scoreboard

Emerging HPC machines have given rise to enhanced compute power that far outstrips the machine's ability to save large scale results for post-processing. To combat this, in situ data analysis techniques are slowly being adopted. With in situ data management favoring workflows composed of multiple simulations and analyses connected in transit on heterogeneous machines, scientists and engineers need a tool that enables them to create data extracts, visualizations, and interactively monitor and steer their simulations. Scoreboard Phase II is a next generation analysis software that supports composite in transit workflows on heterogeneous architectures and restores interactivity to in situ data analysis through simulation monitoring and computational steering. Scoreboard provides a simulation dashboard with graphs of metrics over time, controls for setting custom simulation steering parameters, controls for managing the set of data extracts being produced in the simulation, as well as the ability to explore data extracts, all from a web browser. Realizing the vision outlined in this project required research into making a system that integrates end to end from simulations all the way to the user. In situ tools generally suffer from complexity and excessive software dependencies. Scoreboard, by contrast, is easy to build and integrate into simulation codes and it provides first class FORTRAN support. The Scoreboard library is capable of in situ and in transit data analysis that can produce data extracts commonly needed for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis. Simulations can transparently stage data in transit to a Scoreboard Endpoint program, which can accept their data and produce the requested data extracts. This lets simulations return to their work while the Endpoint works on the analysis. Efficiently staging the data at scale was a topic of this research. Scoreboard provides the means to let the user manage data extracts and monitor/steer many simulations from a web browser. This area of the research focused on discovery of in transit network components to expose and control their steering parameters within an interactive browser-based user interface that includes: system topology, gathered metrics, notifications, dynamically-generated steering controls, and exploration of visualization data products.

Whitlock, BradJoseph [Intelligent Light] (00000001↗

High-Quality Revision of the Israeli Seismic Bulletin

Seismic bulletins, with trustworthy phase picks, origin times, and source locations are key for regional seismic studies, such as travel-time (TT) tomography, attenuation tomography, and anisotropy studies. To lay the groundwork for such studies in Israel, we revised the seismic bulletin of Israel and the surrounding area and obtained a trustworthy TT data set. From the earthquake and explosion bulletins of the Geophysical Institute of Israel, we compiled a starting data set of about 123,000 earthquakes and explosions that occurred during the past 40 yr. After screening out the poorly recorded events, we were left with a data set of ~38,000 well-recorded events. We then revised the remaining data set in two consecutive steps. In the first, we reviewed and updated station metadata, including changes in station metadata parameters over time. In the second step, we jointly relocated a list of selected seismic events, using the Bayesian hierarchical location software package (BayesLoc) of Myers et al. (2007) that performs joint relocation of multiple events. We observed striking dissimilarities between the spatial distributions of the newly relocated catalog and the initial locations. Although the depth distribution of the starting catalog is trimodal with peaks at 0, 5, and 10 km, the distribution in this study is unimodal, with a broad peak between 7.5 and 12.5 km. By differencing the observed arrival times and the origin times obtained through relocation with BayesLoc, we obtained a revised TT database that consists of 261,336 Pg, 132,876 Pn, 114,816 Sg, and 60,394 Sn arrivals, from a set of 30,458 jointly relocated seismic sources. In this work, we compared prerevision and postrevision TTs as a function of epicentral distance and concluded that the revised data set contains far fewer outliers and inconsistencies than the original data set. The revised TT data set may be used for seismic studies, such as TT tomography, attenuation tomography, and anisotropy studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Extreme-Preserving Long-Term Gridded Daily Precipitation Data Set for the Conterminous United States

Extreme daily precipitation contributes to flooding that can cause significant economic damages, and so is important to properly capture in gridded meteorological data sets. This work examines precipitation extremes, the mean precipitation on wet days, and fraction of wet days in two widely used gridded data sets over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). When compared to the underlying station observations, the gridded data show a 27% reduction in annual 1-day maximum precipitation, 25% increase in wet day fraction, 1.5 to 2.5 day increase in mean wet spell length, 30% low bias in 20-year return values of daily precipitation, and 25% decrease in mean precipitation on wet days. It is shown these changes arise primarily from the time-adjustment applied to put the precipitation gauge observations into a uniform time frame, with the gridding process playing a lesser role. A new daily precipitation data set is developed that omits the time-adjustment (as well as extending the gridded data by 7 years) and is shown to perform significantly better in reproducing extreme precipitation metrics. When the new data set is used to force a land surface model, annually averaged 1-day maximum runoff increases 38% compared to the original data, annual mean runoff increases 17%, evapotranspiration drops 2.3%, and fewer wet days leads to a 3.3% increase in estimated solar insolation. Consequently, these changes are large enough to affect portrayals of flood risk and water balance components important for ecological and climate-change applications across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗