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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parametric study of operating conditions of an SO 2 -depolarized electrolyzer

Large-scale hydrogen generation is needed to satisfy both existing commercial demands and the realization of a hydrogen economy. The hybrid sulfur cycle has the potential to meet this goal without the use of fossil fuels. The ability to model and predict how the electrolyzer step of the cycle is affected by independent and interdependent variables is vital to maximizing the efficiency of the overall cycle. Herein, we report that our parametric study of the SO 2 -depolarized electrolyzer, representing one half of the overall reaction cycle, has identified desirable conditions and will help guide further development for operation that will achieve the benchmarks for economic feasibility. We discuss the interactions among the inlet flow rates, applied current, and cell temperature and pressure, on the resulting cell voltage and acid concentration in the liquid product stream. For example, we find that using a sulfonated polybenzimidazole (s-PBI) membrane and a platinum catalyst, a constant current density of either 0.5 A cm -2 , 0.75 A cm -2 , or 1 A cm -2 with an acid concentration of 65 wt% H 2 SO 4 can be produced at a cell voltage of 0.59 V, 0.63 V, and 0.67 V, respectively, by maintaining a cell temperature of 130 °C, a pressure of 2 bar, and a water-to-SO 2 stoichiometry of 2.77. Finally, we discuss directions for future research based on the findings in this manuscript.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Round-Robin Interlaboratory Study on Rare-Earth Elements in U.S.-Based Geologic Materials

In a study funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the University of North Dakota (UND) Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) performed a first-of-its-kind round-robin interlaboratory study (RRIS) to determine lab-to-lab and method-to-method variability in analyzing the rare earth element (REE) content of domestic resources. Analyses of REEs on eleven different materials were accomplished by the laboratories using four different procedures: ASTM D6357 (Procedure A), ASTM D4503 (Procedure B), an alternate in-house procedure for digestion and REE analysis (Procedure C), and neutron activation analysis (NAA). The results of the RRIS suggest that NAA is the most accurate and reliable method for many of the REEs in these types of materials; however, the method is limited in that it is able to determining only ten of the sixteen REEs. Five of the seven labs reporting data for Procedure A and three of the five labs reporting for Procedure B showed excellent performance in terms of repeatability, reproducibility, agreement with NAA, and SRM recoveries based on AOAC International guidelines on method performance. This indicates that when strictly followed these methods are suitable for REE determination in most materials, although are subject to the overall capabilities and experience of individual laboratories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Information-theoretic aspects of Werner states

Highlights: • The rich structures of Werner states are reviewed. • Werner states are characterized in terms of quantum uncertainty. • Information-theoretic aspects of Werner states are revealed. In a seminal study of quantum states with Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen correlations (entanglement) admitting a hidden-variable model (Werner, 1989), Werner introduced the dichotomy of entanglement/separability and devised a family of highly symmetric states, now termed the Werner states, some of which exhibit entanglement but no Bell nonlocality. It turns out that the Werner states have a rich structure of correlations and constitute a paradigm which has played an innovative role in both theoretical and experimental explorations of quantum information. Given the theoretical significance and wide applications of the Werner states, here we first give a concise review of information contents of the Werner states, and then present an information-theoretic characterization of them in terms of the Wigner–Yanase skew information: The Werner states are identified as the states with the minimum quantum uncertainty with respect to a natural family of observables (i.e., the generators of the diagonal unitary group). For this purpose, we introduce a measure of quantum uncertainty which is of independent interest in studying asymmetry, coherence, and uncertainty, and reveal its fundamental properties. We further identify the Bell triplet states as the opposite states of the Werner states in the sense that they have the maximal amount of quantum uncertainty. Analogously, we provide a similar characterization of the isotropic states as the minimum quantum uncertainty states with respect to a closely related family of operators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation and Process Control Development for a Pilot-Scale Leaching and Solvent Extraction Circuit Recovering Rare Earth Elements From Coal-Based Sources

The US Department of Energy in 2010 has identified several rare earth elements as critical materials to enable clean technologies. As part of ongoing research in REEs (rare earth elements) recovery from coal sources, the University of Kentucky has designed, developed and is demonstrating a ¼ ton/hour pilot-scale processing plant to produce high-grade REEs from coal sources. Due to the need to control critical variables (e.g. pH, tank level, etc.), process control is required. To ensure adequate process control, a study was conducted on leaching and solvent extraction control to evaluate the potential of achieving low-cost REE recovery in addition to developing a process control PLC system. The overall operational design and utilization of Six Sigma methodologies is discussed. Further, the application of the controls design, both procedural and electronic for the control of process variables such as pH is discussed. Variations in output parameters were quantified as a function of time. Data trends show that the mean process variable was maintained within prescribed limits. Future work for the utilization of data analysis and integration for data-based decision-making will be discussed.

coal, rare earth elements, pilot plant, automation↗
DOE OSTI2024

First-Principles Study on the Role of Cu and Cl-Based Dopants in NiO

Utilization of wide band gap oxide-based materials in thin-film solar energy technologies has increased in recent years. Among the numerous candidate oxide materials, NiO has shown many desirable optoelectronic properties that are applicable to thin-film PV technologies such as cadmium telluride PV. However, one critical factor requiring further investigation is the p-type doping behavior of NiO, specifically when the cadmium telluride solar cell undergoes conventional processes such as copper doping and chlorine-based activation treatment. The previous literature has shown a large degree of variability in hole concentrations in NiO when copper is used as the primary dopant. This study uses first-principles computational modeling based on density functional theory coupled with defect equilibria calculations to quantitatively explore the role of copper and chlorine-based extrinsic dopants in the p-type doping activity of NiO. The study reveals the importance of extrinsic dopants and their binding interactions with nickel vacancies to effectively p-dope NiO. It is suggested that both the formation of V Ni + Cu Ni and V Ni + Cl O defect pairs under a supersaturated state of NiO are potential mechanisms for increasing hole densities. On the other hand, the production of 2Cu Ni severely limits the effectiveness of p-doping in NiO, even in the presence of the aforementioned defect pairs. Furthermore, the study provides a guideline for experimentalists interested in using copper or chlorine species to understand how to controllably p-dope NiO during thin-film synthesis.

chlorine↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operando X-ray Nanocharacterization of Polycrystalline Thin Film Modules

Non-destructive measurement techniques, with high spatial resolution, capable of correlating composition and structure with device properties, are few and far between. For the case of polycrystalline and inhomogeneous materials, the added challenge is that large sampling areas are necessary in order to have a statistical representation of the specimen under study. For the study of grain cores and grain boundaries in polycrystalline solar absorbers this is of particular importance since their dissimilar behavior and variability throughout the samples makes it difficult to draw conclusions and ultimately optimize the materials and devices. Our approach to use state-of-the-art x-ray microscopy to study full module stacks under operating conditions is unique. Understanding the effects of elemental and charge migration under full encapsulation and operating conditions will allow CIGS and CdTe manufactures and in particular our partners in this proposal to modify materials, stacks, architectures, and processing steps to minimize the performance losses through time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Method Optimization with Categorical and Constrained Continuous Parameters

Traditional approaches to analytical method optimization (e.g., univariate and “guess-and-check”) can be time-consuming, costly, and often fail to identify true optima within the parameter space. Previous work defined and implemented a generalized technique for method optimization for continuous method parameters, but a knowledge gap remains for the incorporation of categorical variables into these advanced method optimization schemes. This work presents and validates a generalized optimization approach that incorporates both continuous and categorical variables while also utilizing a multivariate, multiobjective optimization scheme with Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions to bound the optimization space to solutions within the physical limitations of the parameter space. Method optimization from a case study using GC–MS for the analysis of 11 analytical standards with objectives to minimize peak width and maximize peak height resulted in a 3 orders of magnitude improvement in the average peak height and a 2 orders of magnitude improvement in the average peak width compared to the least optimal (but reasonable) instrumental parameters utilized in this study. This approach to optimization allows for a customizable method optimization in which users can include both continuous and categorical variables to achieve objectives specific to their analytical goals. This approach significantly reduces the labor and cost associated with traditional method development approaches and can be applied in a variety of scientific fields across a range of laboratory techniques (e.g., instrument method development, sample preparation, and extraction techniques).

Amorphous materials↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability in structural carbohydrates, lipid composition, and cellulosic sugar production from industrial hemp varieties

The aim of this study was to determine carbohydrate recovery from hemp for ethanol production and quantify biodiesel from TAG (Triacylglycerol) present in hemp. The structural composition of five different hemp varieties (Seward County-SC, York County-YC, Loup County-LC, 19 m96136-19 m, and CBD Hemp-CBD) were analyzed. Concentration of glucan and xylan ranged between 32.63 to 44.52% and 10.62 to 15.48% respectively. The biomass was then pretreated with Liquid hot water followed by disk milling and then hydrolyzed enzymatically to yield monomeric sugars. High glucose (63-85%) and xylose (73-88%) recovery was achieved. Lipids were extracted from hemp using hexane and isopropanol and then transesterified to produce biodiesel. Approximately, 50% of total fatty acids in SC, LC, and CBD hemp were linoleic acid. Palmitic acid was present between 32 to 50% in varieties YC and 19 m. Highest TAG concentration at 25% of total lipids was observed in CBD hemp. In conclusion, the analysis on lipid composition and high sugar recovery demonstrates hemp as a potential bioenergy crop for ethanol and biodiesel coproduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. In this study we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by ~40% and ~60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a ~22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data for Variability in Structural Carbohydrates, Lipid Composition, and Cellulosic Sugar Production from Industrial Hemp Varieties

The aim of this study was to determine carbohydrate recovery from hemp for ethanol production and quantify biodiesel from TAG (triacylglycerol) present in hemp. The structural composition of five different hemp varieties (Seward County-SC, York County-YC, Loup County-LC, 19 m96136-19 m, and CBD Hemp-CBD) were analyzed. Concentration of glucan and xylan ranged between 32.63 to 44.52% and 10.62 to 15.48% respectively. The biomass was then pretreated with Liquid hot water followed by disk milling and then hydrolyzed enzymatically to yield monomeric sugars. High glucose (63-85%) and xylose (73-88%) recovery was achieved. Lipids were extracted from hemp using hexane and isopropanol and then transesterified to produce biodiesel. Approximately, 50% of total fatty acids in SC, LC, and CBD hemp were linoleic acid. Palmitic acid was present between 32 to 50% in varieties YC and 19 m. Highest TAG concentration at 25% of total lipids was observed in CBD hemp. The analysis on lipid composition and high sugar recovery demonstrates hemp as a potential bioenergy crop for ethanol and biodiesel coproduction.

Biomass Analytics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of diablo winds in Northern California and their relationships with large-scale climate variabilities

The most destructive wildfires recently in Northern California have been linked to the occurrences of Diablo Winds (DWs). This study investigates the climatology of DWs during September–December 1979–2018, and their relationships with various climate modes using observations and two high-resolution reanalysis datasets. Our finding shows that DWs do not have a long-term trend in terms of the annual total number, total duration, and associated maximum wind speeds of DWs over the past 4 decades. However, their associated minimum relative humidity (RH) has decreased significantly, especially in October, which suggests that the dryness during DWs has become more severe with time, possibly leading to an increased chance of fires, and their destructive potential. We also find that the annual total number and duration of DWs have exhibited an quasi-periodic variation, with intervals ranging from 2 to 4 years. The periodic variability of DWs might be attributed to the teleconnections between DWs and climate oscillations, specifically the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), through their modulation of pressure systems near California and the location of the Pacific jet stream. It is suggested that when La Niña and the QBO westerly phases co-occur in the spring, DWs in the following fall and winter tend to occur more frequently, and are associated with more intense high winds and dryness as compared to other springtime QBO and ENSO phases. This relationship may be used to predict the seasonal outlook of DWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical fracture behavior of doped UO 2 using a ball-on-ring equibiaxial flexure test method

Metal oxide dopants, such as titanium and chromium oxides, have garnered considerable attention for their potential to increase grain size (≥ 30 µm) in UO 2 fuel, purportedly enhancing fission gas retention during reactor operation. Fuel performance is significantly impacted by fuel fracture behavior, so it is important to understand the effects of enhanced grain size and dopant content on UO 2 fuel fracture. UO 2 pellets were doped with 0.1 wt% TiO 2 and 0.3 wt% Cr 2 O 3 to alter density and grain size. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy measured dopant levels pre- and post-sintering. X-ray diffraction revealed lattice changes and microstrain via Rietveld refinement. Field emission scanning electron microscopy determined grain sizes of approximately 30 µm for TiO 2 doping and 7 µm for Cr 2 O 3 doping. Transverse rupture strength tests were performed on over 30 samples per dataset to obtain characteristic strength and Weibull modulus. Results indicate no statistical difference in fracture strength between 0.1 wt% TiO 2 doped UO 2 and undoped UO 2 , while 0.3 wt% Cr 2 O 3 doped UO 2 exhibited a 20% decrease in fracture strength. Doped UO 2 samples also showed reduced Weibull modulus compared to undoped UO 2 , suggesting increased scatter in fracture strength. This study's findings suggest that titanium and chromium oxide doping in UO 2 , regardless of grain size, induce residual stresses, decreasing fracture strength and increasing variability in fracture behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A second-order-in-time, explicit approach addressing the redundancy in the low-Mach, variable-density Navier-Stokes equations

A novel algorithm for explicit temporal discretization of the variable-density, low-Mach Navier-Stokes equations is presented here in this study. Recognizing there is a redundancy between the mass conservation equation, the equation of state, and the transport equation(s) for the scalar(s) which characterize the thermochemical state, and that it destabilizes explicit methods, we demonstrate how to analytically eliminate the redundancy and propose an iterative scheme to solve the resulting transformed scalar equations. The method obtains second-order accuracy in time regardless of the number of iterations, so one can terminate this subproblem once stability is achieved. Hence, flows with larger density ratios can be simulated while still retaining the efficiency, low cost, and parallelizability of an explicit scheme. The temporal discretization algorithm is used within a pseudospectral direct numerical simulation which extends the method of Kim, Moin, and Moser for incompressible flow to the variable-density, low-Mach setting, where we demonstrate stability for density ratios up to ~25.7.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Legacy effects of drought on tree growth responses to hurricanes

Natural perturbations, including hurricanes and severe droughts, are becoming more frequent and intense in the tropics, yet our understanding of forest responses to these events is still limited. While the relationships between extreme climatic events and tree mortality are frequently studied, responses of trees that survived such perturbations have been rarely reported. Perturbations and their effects can be quite variable, and trees can respond both positively and negatively to them, depending on their sensitivity and opportunistic behavior. Understanding the potential variation in responses both within and among species is important for building predictions of forest responses. We studied tree growth responses (i.e., changes relative to standard conditions) to hurricanes and drought events in Puerto Rico across six common and broadly distributed species. We examined whether there is a congruence in responses to these contrasting extreme climatic events. We show that trees are particularly susceptible to droughts but display a wide range of responses to hurricanes. Despite the high stochasticity in the impacts of hurricanes, trees that showed reduced growth during previous droughts tend to show reduced growth during the hurricanes as well. Our results demonstrate that trees subjected to different and successive major climatic stresses have consistent declines in their performance. Projected increases in the severity of droughts and tropical storms could have an accumulated, and possibly compound, impact on tree growth. Long-term demographic studies are necessary to understand legacy effects of species responses to extreme climatic perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗