Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53

Discovery of X-Ray Polarization Angle Rotation in the Jet From Blazar Mrk 421

The magnetic-field conditions in astrophysical relativistic jets can be probed by multiwavelength polarimetry, which has been recently extended to X-rays. For example, one can track how the magnetic field changes in the flow of the radiating particles by observing rotations of the electric vector position angle Ψ. Here we report the discovery of a ΨX rotation in the X-ray band in the blazar Markarian 421 at an average flux state. Across the 5 days of Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer observations on 4–6 and 7–9 June 2022, ΨX rotated in total by ≥360°. Over the two respective date ranges, we find constant, within uncertainties, rotation rates (80 ± 9° per day and 91 ± 8° per day) and polarization degrees (ΠX = 10% ± 1%). Simulations of a random walk of the polarization vector indicate that it is unlikely that such rotation(s) are produced by a stochastic process. The X-ray-emitting site does not completely overlap the radio, infrared and optical emission sites, as no similar rotation of Ψ was observed in quasi-simultaneous data at longer wavelengths. We propose that the observed rotation was caused by a helical magnetic structure in the jet, illuminated in the X-rays by a localized shock propagating along this helix. The optically emitting region probably lies in a sheath surrounding an inner spine where the X-ray radiation is released.

Makarian 421↗

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

Ambient Noise Attenuation Tomography Reveals an Asymmetric Damage Zone Across San Jacinto Fault Near Anza, California

Here, we perform seismic attenuation tomography of the shallow structure for the San Jacinto Fault in the Ramona Reservation of southern California. The study uses ambient seismic noise recorded by a linear array of 65 3-C sensors across the fault. We extract amplitude decay information, with uncertainty, from noise interferometry functions. To account for strong heterogeneities in the complex shallow fault zone structure, we apply a frequency-dependent amplitude correction for focusing/defocusing effects using inverted phase velocity maps obtained by solving the transport equation. We then estimate the attenuation structure based on the linear station-triplet method for both Love and Rayleigh waves. The attenuation tomography indicates strong attenuation correlated with known San Jacinto Fault surface traces. The Love wave attenuation tomography reveals an asymmetric damage zone that exists primarily on the fault side with faster seismic velocity, consistent with earthquake ruptures on a fault bimaterial interface with preferred propagation direction to the northwest.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

The effect of temperature on attenuation-correction schemes in rain using polarization propagation differential phase shift

The study elucidates and quantifies differences in the response of the rate of change of polarization propagation differential phase shift Phi, the rate of attenuation for a horizontally/vertically polarized wave A(H,V), and the rate of polarization differential attenuation A(H-V) to temperature. It is shown that if the effects of temperature when estimating A(H) and A(H-V) from Phi are neglected, the average fractional standard error increases only slightly at 9 GHz but significantly at 5 and 3 GHz. Errors at 5 and 3 GHz are about two to three times those at 9 GHz. The performance of Phi-based schemes of attenuation correction at these lower frequencies is much more significantly degraded by temperature uncertainty than at 9 GHz. It is concluded that it is best to use Phi to correct for attenuation at the least-attenuating frequencies.

Jameson, A. R.↗

BEYONDPLANCK IV. On end-to-end simulations in CMB analysis — Bayesian versus frequentist statistics

End-to-end simulations play a key role in the analysis of any high-sensitivity cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment, providing high-fidelity systematic error propagation capabilities that are unmatched by any other means. In this paper, we address an important issue regarding such simulations, namely, how to define the inputs in terms of sky model and instrument parameters. These may either be taken as a constrained realization derived from the data or as a random realization independent from the data. We refer to these as posterior and prior simulations, respectively. We show that the two options lead to significantly different correlation structures, as prior simulations (contrary to posterior simulations) effectively include cosmic variance, but they exclude realization-specific correlations from non-linear degeneracies. Consequently, they quantify fundamentally different types of uncertainties. We argue that as a result, they also have different and complementary scientific uses, even if this dichotomy is not absolute. In particular, posterior simulations are in general more convenient for parameter estimation studies, while prior simulations are generally more convenient for model testing. Before BEYONDPLANCK, most pipelines used a mix of constrained and random inputs and applied the same hybrid simulations for all applications, even though the statistical justification for this is not always evident. BEYONDPLANCK represents the first end-to-end CMB simulation framework that is able to generate both types of simulations and these new capabilities have brought this topic to the forefront. The BEYONDPLANCK posterior simulations and their uses are described extensively in a suite of companion papers. In this work, we consider one important applications of the corresponding prior simulations, namely, code validation. Specifically, we generated a set of one-year LFI 30 GHz prior simulations with known inputs and we used these to validate the core low-level BEYONDPLANCK algorithms dealing with gain estimation, correlated noise estimation, and mapmaking.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Challenges Facing Design and Analysis Tools

The design and analysis of future aerospace systems will strongly rely on advanced engineering analysis tools used in combination with risk mitigation procedures. The implications of such a trend place increased demands on these tools to assess off-nominal conditions, residual strength, damage propagation, and extreme loading conditions in order to understand and quantify these effects as they affect mission success. Advances in computer hardware such as CPU processing speed, memory, secondary storage, and visualization provide significant resources for the engineer to exploit in engineering design. The challenges facing design and analysis tools fall into three primary areas. The first area involves mechanics needs such as constitutive modeling, contact and penetration simulation, crack growth prediction, damage initiation and progression prediction, transient dynamics and deployment simulations, and solution algorithms. The second area involves computational needs such as fast, robust solvers, adaptivity for model and solution strategies, control processes for concurrent, distributed computing for uncertainty assessments, and immersive technology. Traditional finite element codes still require fast direct solvers which when coupled to current CPU power enables new insight as a result of high-fidelity modeling. The third area involves decision making by the analyst. This area involves the integration and interrogation of vast amounts of information - some global in character while local details are critical and often drive the design. The proposed presentation will describe and illustrate these areas using composite structures, energy-absorbing structures, and inflatable space structures. While certain engineering approximations within the finite element model may be adequate for global response prediction, they generally are inadequate in a design setting or when local response prediction is critical. Pitfalls to be avoided and trends for emerging analysis tools will be described.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

The Spacecraft Mass Balance as a Diagnostic Tool for Cabin Air Quality

The spacecraft-level mass balance is a powerful tool for diagnosing and decoupling factors influencing cabin air quality, especially with respect to trace contaminant propagation. Successful implementation of this approach relies upon accurate and temporally relevant air quality measurements, which are often challenging to attain for emerging trace contaminants. In addition to the proper interpretation of air quality data trends, a thorough understanding of subsystem-level mass transfer is required to characterize process performance. For many Environmental Control and Life Support System processes, subsystem mass transfer may be predicted based on physicochemical properties and classic unit operation design approaches. Gaps in understanding of process performance should be supplemented with thorough ground testing. A high confidence in the fidelity of one of these two aspects, air quality data or process performance, may help offset uncertainties in the other. At minimum, thresholding assumptions and numerical methods can be imposed to constrain unknown parameters within the physical envelope of the situation at hand. Finally, the complexity of cabin-wide integrated mass balances may be reduced by implementing a phenomenological approach towards subsystem discretization.

Cabin Air-quality↗

BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis-1 campaign. This 6U CubeSat carries yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. On November 16 th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive tracking data from the DSN and ESA antennas. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators avoided any correction maneuvers on the trajectory and successfully tracked and guide the spacecraft. The spacecraft performed a nominal lunar flyby which provided the pertinent energy to achieve a final Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. Over the course of two weeks, the mission operators corroborated that the subsystems were functioning as expected after the lunar eclipse and the large ΔV incurred. Science operations started once the mission achieved the nominal orbit in Deep Space. This paper discusses in detail the BioSentinel flight performance, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

Neural control of magnetic suspension systems

The purpose of this research program is to design, build and test (in cooperation with NASA personnel from the NASA Langley Research Center) neural controllers for two different small air-gap magnetic suspension systems. The general objective of the program is to study neural network architectures for the purpose of control in an experimental setting and to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. The specific objectives of the research program are: (1) to demonstrate through simulation and experimentation the feasibility of using neural controllers to stabilize a nonlinear magnetic suspension system; (2) to investigate through simulation and experimentation the performance of neural controllers designs under various types of parametric and nonparametric uncertainty; (3) to investigate through simulation and experimentation various types of neural architectures for real-time control with respect to performance and complexity; and (4) to benchmark in an experimental setting the performance of neural controllers against other types of existing linear and nonlinear compensator designs. To date, the first one-dimensional, small air-gap magnetic suspension system has been built, tested and delivered to the NASA Langley Research Center. The device is currently being stabilized with a digital linear phase-lead controller. The neural controller hardware is under construction. Two different neural network paradigms are under consideration, one based on hidden layer feedforward networks trained via back propagation and one based on using Gaussian radial basis functions trained by analytical methods related to stability conditions. Some advanced nonlinear control algorithms using feedback linearization and sliding mode control are in simulation studies.

Gray, W. Steven↗

An analysis of whistler waves at interplanetary shocks

We present an analysis of whistler wave magnetic and electric field amplitude ratios from which we compute wave propagation angles and energies of electrons in resonance with the waves. To do this analysis, we compute the theoretical dependence of ratios of wave components on the whistler wave propagation angle Theta for various combinations of orthogonal wave components. Ratios of wave components that would be observed by a spinning spacecraft are determined, and the effects of arbitrary inclinations of the spacecraft to the ambient magnetic field and to the whistler wave vector are studied. This analysis clearly demonstrates that B/E, the ratio of magnetic to electric field amplitudes, cannot be assumed to be the wave index of refraction, contrary to assumptions of some earlier studies. Therefore previous interpretations of whistler wave observations based on this assumption must be reinvestigated. B/E ratios derived using three orthogonal wave components can be used to unambiguously determine Theta. Using spin plane observations alone, a significant uncertainty occurs in the determination of Theta. Nevertheless, for whistler waves observed downstream of several interplanetary shocks by the Ulysses plasma wave experiment we find that Theta is highly oblique. We suggest that the analysis of wave amplitude ratios used in conjunction with traditional stability analyses provide a promising tool for determining which particle distributions and resonances are likely to be dominant contributors to wave growth.

Lengyel-Frey, D.↗

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

El Nino↗

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.

Consistent coupling of disciplinary analyses↗

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.

Equilibrium state of supersonic market↗

An Open Combinatorial Diffraction Dataset Including Consensus Human and Machine Learning Labels with Quantified Uncertainty for Training New Machine Learning Models

Modern machine learning and autonomous experimentation schemes in materials science rely on accurate analysis of the data ingested by these models. Unfortunately, accurate analysis of the underlying data can be difficult, even for domain experts, complicating the training of the models intended to drive experiments. This is especially true when the goal is to identify the presence of weak signatures in diffraction or spectroscopic datasets. In this work, we examine a set of as-obtained diffraction data that track the phase transition from monoclinic to tetragonal in a Nb-doped VO2 film as a function of temperature and dopant concentration. We then task a set of domain experts and a set of machine learning experts with identifying which phase is present in each diffraction pattern manually and algorithmically, respectively; in both cases, the labels can vary dramatically, especially at the phase boundaries. We use the mode of the labels and the Shannon entropy as a method to capture, preserve and propagate consensus labels and their variance. Further we use the expert labels as a benchmark and demonstrate the use of Shannon entropy weighted scoring to test the performance of machine learning generated labels. Finally, we propose a material data challenge centered around generating improved labeling algorithms. This real-world dataset curated with expert labels can act as test bed for new algorithms. The raw data, annotations and code used in this study are all available online at data.gov and the interested reader is encouraged to replicate and improve the existing models

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signatures of Recent Cosmic-Ray Acceleration in the High-latitude Gamma-Ray Sky

Cosmic-ray (CR) sources temporarily enhance the relativistic particle density in their vicinity over the background distribution accumulated from the Galaxy-wide past injection activity and propagation. If individual sources are close enough to the solar system, their localized enhancements may present as features in the measured spectra of the CRs and in the associated secondary electromagnetic emissions. Large-scale loop-like structures visible in the radio sky are possible signatures of such nearby CR sources. If so, these loops may also have counterparts in the high-latitude γ-ray sky. Using ~10 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope, applying Bayesian analysis including Gaussian Processes, we search for extended enhanced emission associated with putative nearby CR sources in the energy range from 1 GeV to 1 TeV for the sky region |b| > 30°. We carefully control the systematic uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge of the interstellar gas distribution. Radio Loop IV is identified for the first time as a γ-ray emitter, and we also find significant emission from Loop I. Furthermore, strong evidence is found for asymmetric features about the Galactic l = 0° meridian that may be associated with parts of the so-called "Fermi Bubbles," and some evidence is also found for γ-ray emission from other radio loops. Implications for the CRs producing the features and possible locations of the sources of the emissions are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗