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DOE OSTI2021

Microalgae to biofuels through hydrothermal liquefaction: Open-source techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment

Hydrothermal liquefaction is a promising conversion technology in algae biofuel research due to its ability to agnostically convert proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids to biocrude. The high-temperature conditions that define this conversion process require the material to maintain a subcritical liquid state, which complicates the assessment of accurate thermochemical properties due to the required pressure. To clarify this issue, this work compares the estimated performance of algal hydrothermal liquefaction between different thermodynamic models. A process model was developed in Aspen Plus from a robust assessment of current literature. Techno-economic assessment and life-cycle assessment metrics are derived from this model and used as key performance indicators. The baseline fuel price contribution of hydrothermal liquefaction is $0.45 per liter gasoline equivalent. Independently decreasing the temperature from 350 °C to 260 °C while maintaining yield reduces the conversion cost by 19%, illustrating the importance of understanding the high-temperature thermodynamics of the system. Different thermodynamic property models can vary fuel conversion cost results by $0.07 per liter gasoline equivalent. The baseline global warming potential is +23 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 and the net energy ratio is 0.30. Environmental metrics beyond global warming potential and net energy ratio are also discussed for the first time. Uncertainties in conversion performance are bounded through a scenario analysis that manipulates parameters such as product yield and nutrient recycle to produce a range of economic and environmental metrics. The report is supplemented with an open source model to support future hydrothermal liquefaction assessments and accelerate the development of commercial-scale systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neutral Pion Electroproduction and development of a Neutral Particle Spectrometer

Protons and neutrons, i.e. nucleons, are the basic building blocks of the matter in the visible universe. The strong force binds the nucleons to form nuclei. The electromagnetic force forms the atoms by binding the electrons with the nuclei. The electromagnetic interaction is well understood by Quantum Electrodynamics (QED), which shows the most precise predictability amongst all the theories in physics. In QED, charges interact with each other by exchanging photons. The Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) describes the strong interaction. Its degrees of freedom are quarks and gluons, the fundamental constituents of the nucleons. The quarks interact with each other by exchanging gluons. However, unlike QED, the gluons interact amongst themselves. This feature of self bindings of the gluons confines the quarks and gluons in the nucleons/hadrons, never to be seen as free. In order to study some of the features of QCD, such as confinement or the structure of the nucleon, one usually needs to rely on experiments. Electromagnetic probes, governed by the well-understood QED, are excellent tools to probe the nucleon. In general, different scales, e.g. electron beam energies, probe different regions of the nucleon. At low energy, of the order of a few GeV, the electron probes the nucleon in the valence quark region. As its energy increases, the electron probes the sea quark and gluon regions. The study of the nucleon structure in all these regions is needed to fully understand QCD. Form factors and parton distribution functions measured from elastic scattering and deep inelastic scattering of leptons off nucleons have provided a partial view of the internal structure of the nucleon. In the mid-1990s, Generalized Parton Distributions (GPDs) were developed. These new objects are a generalization of the form factors and parton distribution functions, but contain richer information on the nucleon internal structure. GPDs are accessible experimentally by deep exclusive reactions. Deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS) and deeply virtual meson production (DVMP) are some examples. The first dedicated DVCS/DVMP experiment took place in 2004 in Hall A at The Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, i.e. Jefferson Lab, in Virginia, U.S.A. A new DVCS/DVMP experiment, after the beam energy upgrade of Jefferson Lab, was carried out in Hall A in a wider kinematic range. Its data were taken from 2014 to 2016. In Hall C at Jefferson Lab, the next DVCS/DVMP experiment will take place. The Hall C experiment will further exploit the kinematic range with higher precision. A Neutral Particle Spectrometer (NPS) is in development to measure DVCS/DVMP events under high background conditions. Jefferson Lab will provide the highest precision data in the valence quark region for various exclusive reactions. The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is a future experimental facility currently planned to start operations around 2030 in the U.S.A. Its high energy and high luminosity will probe the sea quark and gluon regions providing answers to the outstanding questions of QCD, in particular in the region where matter is dominated by gluons. First of all, this document describes the data analysis and results of the Hall A neutral pion electroproduction off the proton, from the data taken in 2014-2016. Later, some of the developments towards the construction of the electromagnetic calorimeter of the NPS for the upcoming DVCS/DVMP experiment in Hall C are presented. Finally, one of the candidate materials for the EIC calorimeter, a glass scintillator, will be briefly introduced. I have participated to all these projects, in collaboration with many colleagues. I present in this thesis my contributions to each of these projects. My contributions to the neutral pion data analysis were focused on background subtractions on the calorimeter, acceptance calculations, and the estimation of the systematic uncertainty associated to the event selection cuts. Some necessary information on calibrations of the detectors and data analysis methods are also described. In the NPS project, I performed background dose calculations and energy and position resolution studies of the calorimeter, all using Monte Carlo simulations, with realistic geometries of the experimental apparatus. Characterization of the crystals of the calorimeter was also done. Additionally, I measured the radiation hardness of some glass scintillator in its early stage of development. In order to have a future reference when the glass calorimeter prototype will be tested, I simulated the energy resolution of the prototype.

Ko, Ho-San↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linear instabilities in the hot-ion regime in a high-field spherical tokamak

Abstract The present operating high-field compact spherical tokamak ST40 is an important step toward an ST-based fusion reactor (Gryaznevich and Asunta 2017 Fusion Eng. Des. 123 177; McNamara 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 054002). Temperature and density profiles and their uncertainties in recent hot ion ST40 plasmas with central ion temperatures exceeding 8.6 keV, have been inferred using an integrated analysis of several diagnostics including line-of-sight integration and volume average measurements, as well as limited profile information from a charge-exchange-recombination spectrometer. A linear gyrokinetic stability analysis has been carried out to identify the most unstable micro-instabilities in these hot ion plasmas. In one of these plasmas, it is found that linear growth rates of both ion- and electron-scale ( k θ ρ s ⩾ 0.2 where k θ is the poloidal wavenumber and ρ s is the ion gyro-radius with sound speed) modes decrease from the edge toward the core of the plasma (i.e. from ρ = 0.8 to 0.3 where ρ is the square root of the normalized magnetic flux), while the change of linear growth rates at k θ ρ s < 0.2 is non-monotonic. In particular, at ρ = 0.3 no unstable mode was found at k θ ρ s > 5 , and about an order of magnitude reduction in the maximum linear growth rate in the ion-scale wavenumber range of 0.2 ⩽ k θ ρ s < 1 is seen at ρ = 0.3 compared with the ρ = 0.8 location. It is found through parametric scans that while the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode/trapped electron mode (TEM) and kinetic ballooning mode (KBM)/kinetic shear Alfvén (KSA) mode are more important in the plasma core, ubiquitous mode (UM) is found to be the important ion-scale instability at ρ ⩾ 0.6 . At ρ = 0.8, two instabilities are found at the electron scale, with one being the typical electrostatic electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode at ρ e scale and beyond and the other being an unidentified low-real-frequency instability (at the intermediate scale between electron and ion gyroradii) which can propagate in the ion direction and is driven by ETG. The existence of UM at the ion scale and the low-real-frequency instability and ETG mode at the electron scale at ρ = 0.8 is supported by an extensive linear gyrokinetic stability analysis of another ST40 hot ion plasma in a wider parametric range, taking into account the uncertainties in the experimental profiles.

ubiquitous mode↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of modeling and experimental data inconsistencies from burst testing for high-burnup commercial fuel rod applications

Fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal are some of the largest issues remaining in the nuclear industry before rod-average burnup can be increased beyond 62 GWd/tU. The issue is primarily related to the potential for fuel to be dispersed into the reactor primary system, which may increase public risk. One way to prevent dispersal is to avoid cladding burst. The objective of this work is to support the high burnup safety case by evaluating cladding burst under high-burnup, full-length fuel rods and to identify uncertainties that could improve model predictions. The results of this analysis will evaluate realistic, prototypic loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions; support future cladding burst test designs; and inform the development of mechanistic material models. Realistic high-burnup operating conditions were implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to simulate steady-state and LOCA transient fuel rod evolution to the point at which cladding burst occurred. Parametric studies are performed to assess code response to changes in rod internal pressures and heating rates. Results were compared with simulated LOCA experiments to identify inconsistencies between commercial fuel rod analysis and experimental validation. The representative full-length fuel rod LOCA simulation results did not agree with cladding burst tests. Cladding burst tests indicated burst occurring well below (100–150 °C) those calculated in the full-length fuel rod LOCA analysis. Further investigation indicated that the cladding burst tests do not appear to be representative for full-length fuel rods. The inconsistency investigated in this work showed that the differences between the BISON simulation and the experiment's cladding burst conditions arise from an incomplete characterization of the cladding surface temperature, detailed rodlet characterization, lack of cladding strain measurements, and uncertainty in the cladding creep and failure models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved measurement of the strong-phase difference $\delta _D^{K\pi }$ in quantum-correlated $D{\overline{D}}$ decays

The decay D → K - π + is studied in a sample of quantum-correlated D$\overline{D}$ pairs, based on a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb -1 collected at the ψ(3770) resonance by the BESIII experiment. The asymmetry between CP-odd and CP-even eigenstate decays into K - π + is determined to be A Kπ = 0.132 ± 0.011 ± 0.007, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. This measurement is an update of an earlier study exploiting additional tagging modes, including several decay modes involving a $K^{0}_{L}$ meson. The branching fractions of the $K^{0}_{L}$ modes are determined as input to the analysis in a manner that is independent of any strong phase uncertainty. Using the predominantly CP-even tag D → π + π - π 0 and the ensemble of CP-odd eigenstate tags, the observable $A^{πππ^0}_{Kπ}$ is measured to be 0.130 ± 0.012 ± 0.008. The two asymmetries are sensitive to $r^{Kπ}_{D}$ cos $δ^{Kπ}_{D}$ where $r^{Kπ}_{D}$ and $δ^{Kπ}_{D}$ are the ratio of amplitudes and phase difference, respectively, between the doubly Cabibbo-suppressed and Cabibbo-favoured decays. In addition, events containing D → K - π + tagged by D → $K^{0}_{S,L}$π + π - are studied in bins of phase space of the three-body decays. This analysis has sensitivity to both $r^{Kπ}_{D}$ cos $δ^{Kπ}_{D}$ and $r^{Kπ}_{D}$, sin $δ^{Kπ}_{D}$. A fit to A Kπ , $A^{πππ^0}_{Kπ}$ and the phase-space distribution of the D → $K^{0}_{S,L}$π + π - tags yields $δ^{Kπ}_{D}$ = ($187.6^{+8.9+5.4}_{-9.7-6.4}$)°, where external constraints are applied for $r^{Kπ}_{D}$ and other relevant parameters. This is the most precise measurement of $δ^{Kπ}_{D}$ in quantum-correlated D$\overline{D}$ decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taming nuclear mass models with Gaussian processes

We propose a new set of nuclear mass predictions based on multiple theoretical mass models. By employing Gaussian process regression with the Matérn kernel, we achieved root-mean-square (rms) deviations below 100 keV for the training dataset. The best-performing mass models achieved rms deviations below 150 keV for the new precise mass data from AME2020, whereas the ensemble average showed robust performance across the nuclear chart. Our approach uniquely combines: (1) systematic refinement of eight mass models through their residuals, (2) physics-informed features, including magic numbers, nucleon parity numbers, neutron excess, and nuclear collectivity, and (3) theory-to-theory validation demonstrating robust extrapolation capability. We find that the Matérn kernel provides superior uncertainty quantification compared to the RBF kernel, with a length-scale analysis revealing enhanced inter-nuclei correlations. We provide complete mass predictions for all unknown nuclides in AME2020, offering valuable constraints for nuclear structure studies and astrophysical modeling when used with proper uncertainty propagation.

Gaussian processes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed machine learning assisted uncertainty quantification for the corrosion of dissimilar material joints

Jointing techniques like the Self-Piercing Riveting (SPR), Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) and Rivet-Weld (RW) joints are used for mass production of dissimilar material joints due to their high performance, short cycle time, and adaptability. However, the service life and safety usage of these joints can be largely impacted by the galvanic corrosion due to the difference in equilibrium potentials between the metals with the presence of electrolyte. Here, in this paper, we focus on Al-Fe galvanic corrosion and develop physics-informed machine learning based surrogate model for statistical corrosion analysis, which enables the reliability analysis of dissimilar material joints under corrosion environment. In this study, a physics-based finite element (FE) corrosion model has been developed to simulate the galvanic corrosion between a Fe cathode and an Al anode. Geometric and environmental factors including crevice gap, roughness of anode, conductivity, and the temperature of the electrolyte are investigated. Further, a thorough Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis is conducted for the overall corrosion behavior of the Fe-Al joints. It is found that the electrolyte conductivity has the largest effects on the material loss and needs to be managed closely for better corrosion control. This will help in designing and manufacturing joints with improved corrosion performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Monolithic Tungsten Target Block Fatigue

The current STS spallation target design consists of 21 water cooled, tantalum clad, monolithic tungsten blocks. The target wheel assembly rotates such that each target block receives a direct proton pulse every 1.4 seconds (21 blocks / 15 Hz pulses). The quasi-steady heating induced by the repetitive beam pulses creates a significant mean stress distribution in the target. On top of this, the rapid energy deposition from a proton pulse induces dynamic stress waves that are of the same order of magnitude as the mean stresses. Over the design goal of 5,000 operational hours per year for a decade, each target must withstand over 130 million repetitions of these dynamic stress events. The fatigue life prediction of the target blocks is a complex sequence of simulations that depend upon a set of input parameters. For the tungsten block, the end goal is the fatigue factor-of-safety (FOS). This study documents a new structural analysis routine using software available to U.S. national laboratories (e.g. CUBIT, Sierra Multiphysics, Dakota) that enables more rapid target fatigue analysis. The increased throughput is amenable to parameter sensitivity and uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of input parameters (ultimate strength, fatigue strength, density, elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, thermal conductivity, coefficient of thermal expansion, specific heat, flow rate) with expected ranges are documented based on literature data, recent experimental testing, and engineering judgement. UQ bounds the resulting fatigue FOS at [0.5, 3.4] using epistemic interval analysis. These bounds are expected to be wider due to model effects (discretization) and beam effects (focus, offset) that were not included. Parameter sensitivity underscores the importance of ultimate strength and fatigue strength of irradiated tungsten on the fatigue calculations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bridging Control and Deployment: A Cross-Layer Analysis of Scalable Building Cluster Control

Building cluster control has emerged as a promising approach for enabling flexible and coordinated operation of distributed building systems, yet its transition from pilot demonstrations to routine grid-interactive operation remains limited. This paper argues that this gap cannot be explained by control algorithms alone. Instead, it arises from interacting barriers in communication infrastructure, data and semantic interoperability, uncertainty management, stakeholder participation, market design, and policy support. Accordingly, the paper reviews both technical and non-technical barriers to building cluster control. Technical challenges include heterogeneous devices and protocols, communication latency and reliability, distributed decision-making, and uncertainty propagation across aggregated loads. Non-technical barriers include user participation, stakeholder coordination, incentive allocation, and data governance. Existing solution approaches are synthesized, including semantic interoperability frameworks, edge and hierarchical communication architectures, distributed and transactive control strategies, uncertainty-aware optimization, policy mechanisms, and market reforms. Based on this analysis, two research directions are identified: testing infrastructures that can evaluate control performance under realistic multi-building conditions, and abstraction methods that allow building clusters to interact with other energy sectors through standardized flexibility representations. Overall, the paper provides a structured review of how building cluster control can move from isolated demonstrations toward reproducible, market-compatible, and grid-relevant implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

One Galaxy Sample to Rule Them All: Halo Occupation Distribution Modeling of DES Year 3 Source Galaxies

Abstract For the joint analysis of second-order weak-lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called 3 × 2 analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes the uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a “lens-equal-source” analysis significantly improves the self-calibration of photo- z systematics, leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim of enabling a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales, we investigate the halo–galaxy connection of DES Year 3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry to U niverse M achine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, nontrivial central incompleteness, and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the U niverse M achine posterior, with added uncertainties in the measured Dark Energy Survey photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy–halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to ∼2% accuracy from redshift z = 0.1−1.3 that models the dependence of this HOD on (1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry and (2) uncertainties in the U niverse M achine predictions.

Salcedo, Andrés N. (ORCID:000000031420527X)↗

DOE OSTI2024

TDCOSMO - XVI. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the lensed quasar WGD 2038–4008

Time-delay cosmography is a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant (H0). The TDCOSMO Collaboration is performing an ongoing analysis of lensed quasars to constrain cosmology using this method. In this work, we obtain constraints from the lensed quasar WGD 2038−4008 using new time-delay measurements and previous mass models by TDCOSMO. This is the first TDCOSMO lens to incorporate multiple lens modeling codes and the full time-delay covariance matrix into the cosmological inference. The models are fixed before the time delay is measured, and the analysis is performed blinded with respect to the cosmological parameters to prevent unconscious experimenter bias. We obtain DΔ t = 1.68−0.38+0.40 Gpc using two families of mass models, a power-law describing the total mass distribution, and a composite model of baryons and dark matter, although the composite model is disfavored due to kinematics constraints. In a flat ΛCDM cosmology, we constrain the Hubble constant to be H0 = 65−14+23 km s−1 Mpc−1. The dominant source of uncertainty comes from the time delays, due to the low variability of the quasar. Future long-term monitoring, especially in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time, could catch stronger quasar variability and further reduce the uncertainties. This system will be incorporated into an upcoming hierarchical analysis of the entire TDCOSMO sample, and improved time delays and spatially-resolved stellar kinematics could strengthen the constraints from this system in the future.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / cosmological parameters / distance scale⋆ Corresponding author; kcwong19@gmail.com.⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein fellow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Probabilistic Marching Cubes by Deep Learning for Time-Varying Scalar Ensembles

Visualizing the uncertainty of ensemble simulations is challenging due to the large size and multivariate and temporal features of en-semble data sets. One popular approach to studying the uncertainty of ensembles is analyzing the positional uncertainty of the level sets. Probabilistic marching cubes is a technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of multivariate Gaussian noise distributions for positional uncertainty visualization of level sets. However, the technique suffers from high computational time, making interactive visualization and analysis impossible to achieve. This paper introduces a deep-learning-based approach to learning the level-set uncertainty for two-dimensional ensemble data with a multivariate Gaussian noise assumption. We train the model using the first few time steps from time-varying ensemble data in our workflow. We demonstrate that our trained model accurately infers uncertainty in level sets for new time steps and is up to 170X faster than that of the original probabilistic model with serial computation and 10X faster than that of the original parallel computation.

Han, Mengjiao↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing light quark Yukawa couplings through angularity distributions in Higgs boson decay

We propose to utilize angularity distributions in Higgs boson decay to probe light quark Yukawa couplings at e + e - colliders. Angularities $τ$ a are a class of 2-jet event shapes with variable and tunable sensitivity to the distribution of radiation in hadronic jets in the final state. Using soft-collinear effective theory (SCET), we present a prediction of angularity distributions from Higgs decaying to quark and gluon states at e + e - colliders to NNLL + $\mathcal{O}$(α s ) accuracy. Due to the different color structures in quark and gluon jets, the angularity distributions from H → $q\overline{q}$ and H → gg show different behaviors and can be used to constrain the light quark Yukawa couplings. We show that the upper limit of light quark Yukawa couplings could be probed to the level of ~ 15% of the bottom quark Yukawa coupling in the Standard Model in a conservative analysis window far away from nonperturbative effects and other uncertainties; the limit can be pushed to ≲ 7 – 9% with better control of the nonperturbative effects especially on gluon angularity distributions and/or with multiple angularities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transient absorption spectroscopy to explore cellular pathways to photobiomodulation

Photobiomodulation (PBM) describes the use of low irradiance light in the red to near-infrared wavelength range to stimulate biological effects in tissue, and many biological and spectroscopic techniques are used to study PBM. However, these techniques focus on the products or downstream effects rather than the electronic transitions that initiate the PBM processes. This study presents a novel approach to studying low irradiance light exposures on individual proteins and/or protein complexes by combining a continuous wave (CW) laser diode with femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy (TAS), coined here as CW-TAS, and tests the system on reduced cytochrome c (Cyt c) for proof of principle. TAS was conducted using a 532-nm excitation pump beam and a 350-600 nm supercontinuum probe. In this work, CW laser diodes with wavelengths of 450 nm, 635 nm, and 808 nm were interchangeably fiber coupled into the HELIOS Fire. Samples of Cyt c were tested by TAS using a pump power of 15 µW, both with and without CW exposure. CW exposures were carried out with irradiances of 1.60 and 3.20 mW/cm 2 , except for 808 nm, which was only tested at 1.60 mW/cm 2 . Both kinetic and global analyses were performed on the TAS data and the time constants for sets with and without CW exposures were compared. The TAS data for Cyt c with the full dosage of CW exposures did not alter the TAS data distinguishably from the control data. No new electronic transient signals were observed beyond the background when testing Cyt c with the CW exposures. Kinetic analysis confirmed that existing transients did not deviate beyond uncertainty. Global time constants for Cyt c were calculated to be 0.25 ± 0.03 ps and 5.1 ± 0.3 ps for the control study, and the time constants for the CW exposed Cyt c were not significantly different. This study concludes that CW irradiation, at doses delivered, does not alter the transient absorption data of Cyt c. The CW-TAS method provides a new tool for studying PBM effects in other proteins and protein complexes, such as Complex IV, in future studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗