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DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC), Release FY25

The Delivery Environments Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is a broad project intended to analyze simplified problems experimentally and with modeling and simulation. The purpose of analyzing these simplified problems is to extend solution methods to more complex problems, as well as understand deficiencies and gaps in knowledge of methods currently used in more complex analyses. The TRUST project encompasses several smaller testbeds intended to isolate individual phenomena. The testbed under consideration in this report is the Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples testbed. In previous years, the purpose of this testbed was to quantify uncertainty of thermocouple sensors. To accomplish this, an aluminum plate was placed in a thermal chamber and subject to various types of thermal loading. Thermocouples were placed in various locations on the aluminum plate in various configurations (e.g., embedded in the plate, placed under Kapton tape), and an effort was made to quantify uncertainty in these measurements. Finite element simulations were performed to investigate how sensitive these measurements were to parameters such as the boundary conditions on the plate and material properties. However, a fundamental source of uncertainty in this analysis was the convective heat transfer from the plate. Convective heat transfer is a complex physical phenomenon comprised of a number of interacting sub-processes and is difficult to predict accurately a priori. As such, the main purpose of this testbed in FY25 was to better understand, both experimentally and numerically, the convective heat transfer from the plate. This is a highly applicable problem to several more complex problems, as convective heat transfer occurs in nearly all problems where a body is moving through air. Numerically, this required a two-step approach. First, the air flow in the thermal chamber was in vestigated using computational fluid dynamics. The commercial solver Fluent was used to perform these simulations. From these simulations, a heat transfer coefficient over the surface of the plate was calculated. This heat transfer was then used as boundary conditions for finite element heat transfer simulations within the plate, which were performed using Abaqus. Significant effort was devoted to automating the handoff between these two solvers. Experimentally, previous thermocouple results in the plate were used to validate the time-dependent thermal profiles produced from Abaqus. Further experimental efforts were performed both to help validate the Fluent simulations and to inform its boundary conditions. For example, hot-wire anemometers were used to measure the velocity in the chamber, which would be particularly useful in understanding the chamber inlet velocity. Thermocouple measurements were also taken in the chamber, instead of only on the plate, to serve as validation evidence for the Fluent simulations. Numerical results showed that the Fluent to Abaqus workflow matched previous plate thermocouple measurements well. This type of handoff is useful for more complex experiments, or those that are not able to be examined in as great of detail as this testbed, as it was performed without any experimental input. Experimental results, however, were more mixed. The anemometers proved unreliable, with inconsistent measurements across all anemometers, even at locations that were nearly identical. On the other hand, the thermocouples provided a relatively rich view of the temperature field in the chamber.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-resolution mapping of nitrogen oxide emissions in large US cities from TROPOMI retrievals of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide columns

Satellite-derived spatiotemporal patterns of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions can improve accuracy of emission inventories to better support air quality and climate research and policy studies. In this study, we develop a new method by coupling the chemical transport Model-Independent SATellite-derived Emission estimation Algorithm for Mixed-sources (MISATEAM) with a divergence method to map high-resolution NO x emissions across US cities using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) retrievals. The accuracy of the coupled method is validated through application to synthetic NO 2 observations from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for 33 large and mid-size US cities. Validation reveals excellent agreement between inferred and NU-WRF-provided emission magnitudes (R= 0.99, normalized mean bias, NMB = —0.01) and a consistent spatial pattern when comparing emissions for individual grid cells (R = 0.88 ± 0.06). We then develop a TROPOMI-based database reporting annual emissions for 39 US cities at a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° from 2018 to 2021. This database demonstrates a strong correlation (R= 0.90) with the National Emission Inventory (NEI) but reveals some bias (NMB = —0.24). There are noticeable differences in the spatial patterns of emissions in some cities. Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in TROPOMI-based emissions and potential misallocation of emissions and/or missing sources in bottom-up emission inventories both contribute to these differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Reflected Target Optical Assessment System: Stage 1 Development Results

NREL has completed stage 1 development of an indoor optical measurement tool for fully assembled heliostats and single facets. This tool began as an indoor version of NREL’s outdoor Non-Intrusive Optical (NIO) measurement technique [1]. It uses similar techniques to other available tools (deflectometry, photogrammetry, etc.), but is designed to require very little infrastructure, labor, and time to set up and collect surface slope and canting measurements, making it a valuable tool for quality assurance and laboratory measurement of heliostat optics. It accomplishes this by using computer vision, photogrammetry, and multiple images stitched together to minimize the printed target size and required setup precision. This adaptable setup is useful for taking measurements at a variety of heliostat pointing angles, and for measuring fully assembled heliostats on the assembly line. In this paper, we describe the methodology behind the measurement system, present an initial analysis of its uncertainty and sensitivity, and compare it with established optical measurement systems.

Kesseli, Devon (ORCID:0000000193113036)↗

The energy balance of the nighttime thermosphere

Energy balance considerations for the thermosphere are affected by the uncertainty of the solar EUV flux. The problem is simplified by investigating only the nighttime thermosphere. Vapor trail measurements provide wind data at the sunset and sunrise terminators and near the polar cap boundary. Temperature and density profiles were obtained from incoherent scatter and Ogo 6 measurements. Based on the available data the energy losses are estimated to be 8 times 10 to the 10th W due to downward conduction at 120 km and 3 times 10 to the 10th W due to infrared radiation. The energy carried by the measured winds from the polar cap is found to be 4.6 times 10 to the 10th W and that transported across the mid- and low-latitude terminators, 7.6 to 11 times 10 to the 10th W. The greatest uncertainty in this analysis was in the estimates of the differences in the densities and temperatures in the lower thermosphere at the dawn and dusk terminators. Because of the large rotational velocity of the earth, small differences in these parameters correspond to large amounts of energy transported to the night hemisphere.

Glenar, D. A.↗

Statistical summaries of fatigue data for design purposes

Two methods are discussed for constructing a design curve on the safe side of fatigue data. Both the tolerance interval and equivalent prediction interval (EPI) concepts provide such a curve while accounting for both the distribution of the estimators in small samples and the data scatter. The EPI is also useful as a mechanism for providing necessary statistics on S-N data for a full reliability analysis which includes uncertainty in all fatigue design factors. Examples of statistical analyses of the general strain life relationship are presented. The tolerance limit and EPI techniques for defining a design curve are demonstrated. Examples usng WASPALOY B and RQC-100 data demonstrate that a reliability model could be constructed by considering the fatigue strength and fatigue ductility coefficients as two independent random variables. A technique given for establishing the fatigue strength for high cycle lives relies on an extrapolation technique and also accounts for "runners." A reliability model or design value can be specified.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Color photometry of surface features on Ganymede and Callisto

Voyager imaging data demonstrate that the scattering properties ('phase curves') of all major terrain types on Ganymede and Callisto are not significantly wavelength dependent between 0.4 and 0.6 micron. The data suggest that the phase curves may be slightly steeper at the shorter wavelengths, consistent with the trend of telescopic observations near opposition. However, the differences are small and entirely within the uncertainties of the analysis. The result indicates that the phase integrals (0.8 for Ganymede and 0.6 for Callisto) derived by S. W. Squyres and J. Veverka (1981) from the abundant Voyager clear filter observations are reliable measures of the radiometric phase integrals. The corresponding values of the Bond albedo turn out to be 0.35 for Ganymede and 0.11 for Callisto.

Squyres, S. W.↗

Ionized magnesium in the planetary nebula NGC 7027

Observations of NGC 7027 are presented for six ionic lines: Mg(+3) (4.48 microns), Mg(+4) (5.61 microns), H(0) (4.05 and 7.46 microns), Ne(+5) (7.64 microns), and Ar(+5) (4.53 microns). The magnesium lines are consistent with the measurements of Russell, Soifer, and Willner (1977), and the hydrogen lines are consistent with the line strengths predicted from the radio flux. Upper limits were obtained for the neon and argon lines. The abundance of magnesium in the central part of the nebula is highly uncertain because the fine-structure collision strengths are poorly known. The strong gradient of magnesium abundance from the inner to the outer portions of the nebula derived by Pequignot and Stasinska (1980) could be an artifact of this uncertainty. A brief analysis of the effective stellar temperature derived from the magnesium line ratios is given.

Evans, N. J., II↗

The cosmic ray source composition

The cosmic ray source composition is shown to be related to the observed cosmic ray abundances by a set of linear equations which are valid for either ad hoc pathlength distributions or quantitative solutions to Galactic propagation models. These relations can be used to propagate abundances from the source or to the source, and the method described here allows a simple propagation of abundance uncertainties. A simultaneous analysis of B/C and (21-25)Fe indicates a need for truncation of the pathlength distribution.

Margolis, S. H.↗

A methodology for formulating a minimal uncertainty model for robust control system design and analysis

In the design and analysis of robust control systems for uncertain plants, the technique of formulating what is termed an M-delta model has become widely accepted and applied in the robust control literature. The M represents the transfer function matrix M(s) of the nominal system, and delta represents an uncertainty matrix acting on M(s). The uncertainty can arise from various sources, such as structured uncertainty from parameter variations or multiple unstructured uncertainties from unmodeled dynamics and other neglected phenomena. In general, delta is a block diagonal matrix, and for real parameter variations the diagonal elements are real. As stated in the literature, this structure can always be formed for any linear interconnection of inputs, outputs, transfer functions, parameter variations, and perturbations. However, very little of the literature addresses methods for obtaining this structure, and none of this literature addresses a general methodology for obtaining a minimal M-delta model for a wide class of uncertainty. Since have a delta matrix of minimum order would improve the efficiency of structured singular value (or multivariable stability margin) computations, a method of obtaining a minimal M-delta model would be useful. A generalized method of obtaining a minimal M-delta structure for systems with real parameter variations is given.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Accuracy of vertical air motions from nadir-viewing Doppler airborne radars

This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainties expected in vertical velocities using a vertically pointing airborne Doppler radar which has a nadir or zenith-pointing beam. To examine the expected uncertainty, the Doppler velocity equation for a moving platform is derived and it is applied to cases of nadir-fixed and stabilized beams. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect of platform stability on the deduced vertical air motions and it is shown that the antenna must be stabilized to obtain desired accuracy in the vertical velocity measurements.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

Scaling of impact damage in fiber composites

Impact damage in fiber composite structures remains of much concern, and is often the limiting factor in establishing allowable strain levels. The complexity of impact damage formation usually dictates that experiments are required, but scaling of results from small laboratory scale specimens to large structures introduces additional uncertainty into the analysis. This presentation gives the results of an analytical and experimental investigation intended to develop procedures for prediction of damage formation and subsequent strength loss, with particular emphasis on scaling of results with respect to structure size. The experimental investigation involved both drop-weight and airgun impact on carbon/epoxy plates and cylinders. Five sizes of plates ranging from 50 by 50 by 1.072 mm to 250 by 250 by 5.36 mm, and two sizes of cylinders with diameters of 96.5 and 319 mm, were employed in the experimental program. Impact tests were carried out over a range of impact conditions, and specimens were inspected for damage by C-scan and deplying. Analysis procedures were developed for both quasistatic and dynamic impacts for both the plates and cylinders. As has been reported previously, comparison of predicted structural response and measured surface strains was quite good over the entire range of sizes employed in the program. The damage formation and strength loss after impact showed a number of interesting features that are significant with respect to scaling of size. The extent of delamination was observed to increase with specimen size more than would be expected if stresses controlled the delamination extent. This was explained on the basis that delamination is controlled by energy release rates, and thus incorporates the usual dependence on the absolute size characteristic of fracture mechanics. Additionally, the experiments indicated that delamination initiated at matrix cracks and is dependent on the absolute size of the ply group thicknesses. Both the initiation and propagation of delamination are seen to be controlled by fracture mechanics parameters, and thus show specific dependence on size that must be accounted for in extrapolating results from laboratory scale tests to full size structures.

Swanson, Stephen R.↗

An examination of the total hydrogen budget of the lower stratosphere

We analyze the hydrogen budget of the lower stratosphere using simultaneous in situ measurements of northern hemispheric water vapor (H2O) and methane (CH4) obtained during the spring Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols, and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE), as well as previously published in situ H2 data. Based on this data, we conclude that approximately two H2O molecules are produced for each CH4 molecule destroyed. This implies that H2 production from CH4 oxidation is balanced by H2 oxidation. The uncertainty in this analysis is greatly reduced by the use of multiple data sets. Additionally, we infer that, on an annual and global average, H2O enters the stratosphere with a mixing ratio of 4.2 +/- 0.5 ppmv, and that the quasi-conserved quantity 2 x CH4 + H2O has a value of 7.6 +/- 0.6 ppmv in these northern hemishere air parcels (where xi denotes the mixing ratio of the constituent xi).

Dessler, A. E.↗

The isostatic state of Mead crater

We have analyzed high-resolution Magellan Doppler tracking data over Mead crater, using both line-of-sight and spherical harmonic methods, and have found a negative gravity anomaly of about 4-5 mgal (at spacecraft altitude, 182 km). This is consistent with no isostatic compensation of the present topography; the uncertainty in the analysis allows perhaps as much as 30% compensation at shallow dpeths (approximately 25 km). This is similar to observations of large craters on Earth, which are not generally compensated, but contrasts with at least some lunar basins which are inferred to have large Moho uplifts and corresponding positive Bouguer anomalies. An uncompensated load of this size requires a lithosphere with an effective elastic lithosphere thickness greater than 30 km. In order for the crust-mantle boundary not to have participated in the deformation associated with the collapse of the transient cavity during the creation of the crater, the yield strength near the top of the mantle must have been significantly higher on Earth and Venus than on the Moon at the time of basin formation. This might be due to increased strength against frictional sliding at the higher confining pressures within the larger planets. Alternatively, the thinner crusts of Earth and Venus compared to that of the Moon may result in higher creep strength of the upper mantle at shallower depths.

Banerdt, W. B.↗

Straw man trade between multi-junction, gallium arsenide, and silicon solar cells

Multi-junction (MJ), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and silicon (Si) solar cells have respective test efficiencies of approximately 24%, 18.5% and 14.8%. Multi-junction and gallium arsenide solar cells weigh more than silicon solar cells and cost approximately five times as much per unit power at the cell level. A straw man trade is performed for the TRMM spacecraft to determine which of these cell types would have offered an overall performance and price advantage to the spacecraft. A straw man trade is also performed for the multi-junction cells under the assumption that they will cost over ten times that of silicon cells at the cell level. The trade shows that the TRMM project, less the cost of the instrument, ground systems and mission operations, would spend approximately $552 thousand dollars per kilogram to launch and service science in the case of the spacecraft equipped with silicon solar cells. If these cells are changed out for gallium arsenide solar cells, an additional 31 kilograms of science can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $90 thousand per kilogram. The weight reduction is shown to derive from the smaller area of the array and hence reductions in the weight of the array substrate and supporting structure. If the silicon solar cells are changed out for multi-junction solar cells, an additional 45 kilograms of science above the silicon base line can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $58 thousand per kilogram. The trade shows that even if the multi-junction arrays are priced over ten times that of silicon cells, a price that is much higher than projected, that the additional 45 kilograms of science are launched and serviced at $182 thousand per kilogram. This is still much less than original $552 thousand per kilogram to launch and service the science. Data and qualitative factors are presented to show that these figures are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the benefit of the higher efficiency solar cells for TRMM is far greater than the uncertainties in the analysis.

Gaddy, Edward M.↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Smart, Christian↗