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DOE OSTI2026

Potential Solutions to Demand Growth in Virginia: Options for Demand Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck report presents a literature review on virtual power plants (VPPs) and a demand flexibility analysis for the state of Virginia as part of DOE's State Energy Program (SEP) technical assistance work. The literature review describes key concepts, examples, participation models, and other issues for VPPs, and the analysis section presents a state-specific demand flexibility analysis estimating the technical potential for demand response from various sectors and end-uses. These materials are meant to inform and support VA's ability to shepherd ongoing dialogue and meet energy needs in the midst of strong load growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Informing Mexico's Distributed Generation Policy with System Advisor Model (SAM) Analysis

The Government of Mexico recognizes the potential for clean distributed generation (DG) to meaningfully contribute to Mexico's clean energy and emissions reduction goals. However, important questions remain about how to fairly value DG and foster inclusive and equitable market growth that is beneficial to investors, electricity ratepayers, electricity distributors, and society. The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has partnered with power sector institutions and stakeholders in Mexico to provide timely analytical support and expertise to help inform policymaking processes on clean DG. This document describes two technical assistance interventions that used the System Advisor Model (SAM) to inform Mexico's DG policymaking processes with a focus on rooftop solar regulation and policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling, Performance Assessment, and Nodal Data Analysis of TRISO-Fueled Systems with Shift

This technical report documents several enhancements to the Shift Monte Carlo (MC) code under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in fiscal year (FY) 2022. Performance enhancements were added to Shift specifically for tristructural isotropic (TRISO)–fueled reactor systems and guided based on performance analysis in FY 2021. For the pebble performance model developed in previous studies, the runtime improved by ~ 91× compared to the original model and ~ 2× compared to the user-optimized model. Compared to Serpent, Shift is ~ 3× slower if Serpent delta-tracking is enabled but ~ 2× faster when delta-tracking is disabled. The multigroup cross section generation was improved through simplifying tally input definitions, porting several post-processing tally operations from Python scripts into the Shift code base, and accounting for production reactions in the scattering multiplicity. Progress was also made on two emerging capabilities: (1) the development of Titan (a Shift reactor physics user interface) and (2) initial investigation into path-length tallies for computing multigroup scattering matrices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗
DOE OSTI2017

Future Nuclear Energy Factual Status Document: Resource Document for the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Future Nuclear Energy, July 2017

Since commercialization in the mid-1950s, nuclear power has been widely deployed and provides an important clean source of energy, primarily through the generation of electricity. There are currently 449 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries with over 390 GWe total capacity, with 99 operating units in the United States with a total generating capacity of about 100 GWe. Nuclear power plants provide over 11% of the world’s electricity production and, as of 2016, thirteen countries rely on nuclear energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity. Virtually all of that power is generated with water-cooled reactor systems. A number of advanced nuclear energy system concepts have been developed to provide improved efficiency, greater fissile fuel utilization, reduced high level waste generation, and increased margins of safety over today’s water-cooled systems. However, there are a number of technical challenges that must be addressed to enable the broad deployment of these systems from concept to the electrical grid. This Technical Document is written to provide workshop participants with an overview of the current status of a number of advanced reactor systems: Key issues for advanced nuclear energy, including coolants, materials in extremes (irradiation, coolant, and/or high temperature) and interfaces; Nuclear fuel technologies for key reactor types and limitations in testing and design; State of science and understanding for nuclear systems, including characterization, testing, and modeling and simulation tools. For each of these technical areas, this document describes the technological challenge, current state of the art for the technology, and barriers to advanced nuclear concepts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1984

A Nomographic Methodology for Use in Performance Trade-Off Studies of Parabolic Dish Solar Power Modules

A simple graphical method was developed to undertake technical design trade-off studies for individual parabolic dish models comprising a two-axis tracking parabolic dish with a cavity receiver and power conversion assembly at the focal point. The results of these technical studies are then used in performing the techno-economic analyses required for determining appropriate subsystem sizing. Selected graphs that characterize the performance of subsystems within the module were arranged in the form of a nomogram that would enable an investigator to carry out several design trade-off studies. Key performance parameters encompassed in the nomogram include receiver losses, intercept factor, engine rating, and engine efficiency. Design and operation parameters such as concentrator size, receiver type (open or windowed aperture), receiver aperture size, operating temperature of the receiver and engine, engine partial load characteristics, concentrator slope error, and the type of reflector surface, are also included in the graphical solution. Cost considerations are not included.

Selcuk, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Composite Panel Postbuckling Behavior and General Model of Joints in Composite Structures

The present paper is a final technical report on the research programme NCCW-73 accomplished within co-operation between NASA of the USA and GOSKOMOBORONPROM of Russia in the field of aeronautics. The report contains basic results of studies in two areas, 'Analysis of postbuckling behavior of composite panels' and 'Development of general model of joints in composite structures'; these results were obtained in conformity with requirements of NCCW-73. In addition, consideration is given to some related issues, and proposals for further studies are formulated.

Zamula, G. N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimized Mixed-Mode Engine and Fuel Demonstrator for Improved Fuel Economy while Meeting Emissions Requirements

Progressively increasing regulatory demands on fuel economy and future global emission standards have led to a focus on advanced engine development to improve overall engine efficiency and fulfill emission requirements. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and gasoline compression ignition (GCI) are promising technologies to achieve these goals and have the advantage of using existing refinery infrastructure and subsequent economies of scale for a robust energy supply. By applying spark ignition (SI) for cold start, LTC for low load operations, and GCI for medium to high load operations, a multimode GCI engine concept was proposed and the fuel formation was co-optimized to maximize fuel economy improvement potential while maintaining ULEV 70 emissions standards. HATCI has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of this multimode GCI engine concept, and confirmed the fuel economy improvement over the baseline SI engine by simulating the FTP75 vehicle drive cycle. In this report, the technical approaches, multimode engine control, and engine test results of both steady state and transitions, CFD modeling, fuel testing, and FTP75 drive cycle simulation results are summarized, followed with technical challenges observed, and recommendations for possible follow-up studies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2018

Harnessing expert knowledge: Defining a Bayesian network decision model with limited data-Model structure for the vibration qualification problem

As systems become more complex, systems engineers rely on experts to inform decisions. There are few experts and limited data in many complex new technologies. This challenges systems engineers as they strive to plan activities such as qualification in an environment where technical constraints are coupled with the traditional cost, risk, and schedule constraints. Bayesian network (BN) models provide a framework to aid systems engineers in planning qualification efforts with complex constraints by harnessing expert knowledge and incorporating technical factors. By quantifying causal factors, a BN model can provide data about the risk of implementing a decision supplemented with information on driving factors. This allows a systems engineer to make informed decisions and examine “what-if” scenarios. This paper discusses a novel process developed to define a BN model structure based primarily on expert knowledge supplemented with extremely limited data (25 data sets or less). The model was developed to aid qualification decisions—specifically to predict the suitability of six degrees of freedom (6DOF) vibration testing for qualification. The process defined the model structure with expert knowledge in an unbiased manner. Finally, validation during the process execution and of the model provided evidence the process may be an effective tool in harnessing expert knowledge for a BN model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Space Station Freedom restructure impacts on technology experiment accommodation

This is a follow up to NASA Technical Memorandum (TM) 102766; it provides an overview of the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) Space Station Freedom (SSF) Technology Development Payload Program, reviews the OAST SSF resource requirements, and contrasts the requirements with the resources that are available to OAST since the restructure of SSF. A discussion of the issues as well as conclusions and recommendations, is provided. It is concluded that, even after adjustments to the OAST traffic model to reflect restructure, some resources will be inadequate even at the 20 percent allocation level. It is also concluded that bartering resources among U.S. users and international partners, and increasing the level of automation may be viable solutions to the resource constraint problem. The final conclusion is that, to facilitate the performance of technology experiments on SSF, OAST should fund SSF experiments and update its traffic model as soon as possible, and should provide technical and programmatic assistance to technology experiment developers.

Avery, Don E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Facilitated transport membranes for H 2 purification from coal-derived syngas: A techno-economic analysis

A single-stage membrane process has been designed for using facilitated transport membranes (FTMs) to decarbonize the coal-derived syngas from an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant. The necessary process model and costing method have also been developed to assess the technical feasibility and process economics. In order to account for the carrier saturation phenomenon associated with FTMs, a homogeneous reactive diffusion model is integrated into the process model. The techno-economic study reveals that the mitigated carrier saturation upon bulk CO 2 removal can lead to appreciable increases in the CO 2 permeance and CO 2 /H 2 selectivity, which can be utilized to achieve 95% CO 2 purity and 95% H 2 recovery with a CO 2 /H 2 selectivity of 50 at the complete carrier saturation. FTMs with different facilitated transport characteristics can also be arranged in a hybrid membrane configuration to render a H 2 recovery of 99% and a cost of electricity of $\$118.5$ /MWh, which is 12.5% lower than that of the benchmark Selexol process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

MELCOR Modeling of Non-LWR Systems Draft Report for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

This report provides an overview of technical issues and design features relevant to advanced reactors and reviews MELCOR's current readiness for modeling accidents in such reactor types. This report describes advanced reactor physics models currently available or under development, and gauges the level of effort required to develop new models and capabilities applicable to assessing advanced reactor safety issues. Finally, this report reviews the available database that can be used in verification and validation of new models. Four general advanced reactor types are considered in this report: 1) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR); 2) Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR); 3) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR); 4) Fluoride Salt-Cooled High Temperature Reactor (FHR)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Report of the Peer Review Panel for the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain Flow and Transport Model, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

The stated purpose of the peer review is to determine whether the model, results, interpretations, and documentation are consistent with the requirements of the FFACO Alternative Modeling Strategy and Decision Process for closure of the CAU. The Peer Review Panel was asked to explicitly answer six questions that provide an overview to its conclusions and recommendations. These six questions and the panel’s responses are presented in the next section of this review report. The Peer Review Panel was asked to present and summarize its primary findings by answering six key peer review questions. These questions are as follows: 1.Is the implementation of the AMS technically and regulatorily sound and defensible? 2.Have conceptual models and/or alternatives for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport in the RM/SM system, permissible based upon available data and observations, been identified to support analyses of radionuclide migration away from the testing areas toward potential receptors? 3.Based on available data that include “maximum transport” and “minimum transport,” do the forecasts represent a range of plausible scenarios and address assumptions for parameters that are most sensitive for saturated zone flow and transport? 4.Can radionuclide transport forecasts be used as an aid in evaluating potential exposure pathways, as intended by the AMS? 5.Has the extent of contamination been bounded such that a regulatory decision can be made regarding CAU closure that is protective of human health and the environment? 6.Has anything that influences the protection of human health and the environment been missed?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Organic Rankine Cycle Integration and Optimization for High Efficiency CHP Genset Systems (Final Technical Report)

This project successfully advanced the integration of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) technology with reciprocating engine–based combined heat and power (CHP) systems to improve electrical efficiency, total CHP efficiency, and grid-responsive operation. Over three budget periods, the work progressed from high-temperature ORC component development and thermodynamic model validation to next-generation system design, working fluid transition, and techno-economic analysis. Key technical accomplishments include development and validation of a thermodynamic model capable of accurately predicting ORC performance across an expanded temperature and pressure envelope; successful identification and validation of low-global-warming-potential (GWP) working fluids—most notably R1233zd(E)—as viable replacements for R245fa; and demonstration of scalable ORC architectures suitable for integration with 1–20 MW class reciprocating engines. These advances enable flexible CHP configurations that can increase electrical output while maintaining high overall utilization of available thermal energy. The project also produced a clean-sheet design for a next-generation ORC system targeting substantially higher power output per unit, supported by detailed component selection, heat exchanger evaluation, and system-level modeling. Techno-economic analyses indicate that ORC-enabled flexible CHP systems can meet or exceed Department of Energy (DOE) efficiency targets while providing value to both facility operators and the electric grid.. Late-stage testing of the largest next-generation ORC prototype identified limitations related to pump net positive suction head (NPSH) requirements and condenser flooding under certain operating conditions. Although these issues constrained full validation of that configuration within the project timeframe, they provided clear and actionable design guidance for future system refinements. Importantly, validated modeling, smaller-scale testing, and working fluid evaluations confirmed the technical viability of the overall approach. In aggregate, this project met its core objectives by establishing validated design tools, de-risking key ORC technologies for CHP applications, and defining a credible pathway toward commercialization of flexible, high-efficiency CHP systems. The results form a strong foundation for continued development and deployment beyond the conclusion of the DOE-funded effort.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1920

Experimental Research on Air Propellers II

This report is a continuation of NACA Technical Report 14. It presents the results of an experimental investigation on the performance of air propellers which was divided into five parts, as follows: (1) Tests under conditions of flight on 16 model propellers of different forms, sections, or pitch ratios from those of Technical Report 14; (2) Tests under conditions of flight on one model propeller of variable pitch; (3) Tests under conditions of flight on three sets of right and left hand model propellers in series; (4) Tests on 12 model propellers to determine brake effect or negative thrust at negative slip; (5) Standing thrust and power tests of 67 model propellers.

Durand, William F↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗