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Report on the AAPM grand challenge on deep generative modeling for learning medical image statistics

Abstract Background The findings of the 2023 AAPM Grand Challenge on Deep Generative Modeling for Learning Medical Image Statistics are reported in this Special Report. Purpose The goal of this challenge was to promote the development of deep generative models for medical imaging and to emphasize the need for their domain‐relevant assessments via the analysis of relevant image statistics. Methods As part of this Grand Challenge, a common training dataset and an evaluation procedure was developed for benchmarking deep generative models for medical image synthesis. To create the training dataset, an established 3D virtual breast phantom was adapted. The resulting dataset comprised about 108 000 images of size 512 512. For the evaluation of submissions to the Challenge, an ensemble of 10 000 DGM‐generated images from each submission was employed. The evaluation procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, a preliminary check for memorization and image quality (via the Fréchet Inception Distance [FID]) was performed. Submissions that passed the first stage were then evaluated for the reproducibility of image statistics corresponding to several feature families including texture, morphology, image moments, fractal statistics, and skeleton statistics. A summary measure in this feature space was employed to rank the submissions. Additional analyses of submissions was performed to assess DGM performance specific to individual feature families, the four classes in the training data, and also to identify various artifacts. Results Fifty‐eight submissions from 12 unique users were received for this Challenge. Out of these 12 submissions, 9 submissions passed the first stage of evaluation and were eligible for ranking. The top‐ranked submission employed a conditional latent diffusion model, whereas the joint runners‐up employed a generative adversarial network, followed by another network for image superresolution. In general, we observed that the overall ranking of the top 9 submissions according to our evaluation method (i) did not match the FID‐based ranking, and (ii) differed with respect to individual feature families. Another important finding from our additional analyses was that different DGMs demonstrated similar kinds of artifacts. Conclusions This Grand Challenge highlighted the need for domain‐specific evaluation to further DGM design as well as deployment. It also demonstrated that the specification of a DGM may differ depending on its intended use.

Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging↗

On the Importance of Using Event-Specific Wave Diffusion Rates in Modeling Diffuse Electron Precipitation

A few to tens of keV electron precipitation that carries substantial energy source down to the upper atmosphere to create aurora is manifested as an important magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling process. The precipitation is usually caused by scattering processes associated with plasma waves in the magnetosphere. The scattering process is often quantified by wave diffusion rates that indicate how fast an electron is scattered. Global models commonly use diffusion coefficients that are derived from statistical wave models. However, due to the statistical nature, many localized, transient features could be smeared out. In this study, we investigate electron precipitation using event-specific diffusion coefficients that are obtained based on simultaneous in-situ measured/inferred, rather than statistical, chorus wave dynamics. We find that the application of the event-specific diffusion coefficients associated with a more dynamic and intense chorus wave model leads more electrons, particularly at several to tens of keV in the dawn-to-noon sector at L > 3, to precipitate than using statistical coefficients. Here, the new simulation roughly captures both the intensity and variability of the precipitating flux as detected by the NOAA/POES satellites. Ionospheric electron density in the lower E region (100–120 km) observed by the mid-latitude Millstone Hill radar is also much better reproduced, while the case using statistical diffusion coefficients underestimates the ionization rate. This study implies the importance of using event-specific diffusion rates in simulating the diffuse electron precipitation and understanding the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Origin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

A climate model resolving the seasonal cycle and the two horizontal dimensions was developed and applied to several problems of current interest. Models of this type are useful when for various reasons a general circulation model experiment is not warranted or not feasible. For example, in cases where the signal to natural variability is small it may be advantageous to first consider such a statistical dynamical model because extremely long runs may be necessary in the application. In this case the simpler statistical dynamical model serves as a pilot study device. The model developed is a thermodynamic model whose solution yields the equilibrium seasonal cycle for the surface temperature field over the globe. The model is essentially a statement of the conservation of heat energy for individual columns of the earth atmosphere system. Various terms such as the infrared radiation flux to space are parameterized with earth radiation budget data from satellites such as Nimbus 6. The primary agent modulating the seasonal cycle amplitude is the heat capacity per unit area which is a strong function of surface type -- ocean surface can store 60 times more heat per unit time than land. By adjusting its few empirical parameters the model can be brought into remarkable agreement with the observed seasonal cycle. The model is then very useful for looking at the dependence of the seasonal cycle of the temperature on such externally defined variables as the Earth's orbital elements (eccentricity, tilt, precession of equinoxes) or the configuration of land-sea geography which can be changed by continental drift.

North, G. R.↗

Abrasion-ablation model for neutron production in heavy ion collisions

In intermediate energy nucleus-nucleus collisions, neutron production at forward angles is observed to occur with a Gaussian shape that is centered near the beam energy and extends to energies well above that of the beam. This paper presents an abrasion-ablation model for making quantitative predictions of the neutron spectrum. To describe neutrons produced from the abrasion step of the reaction where the projectile and target overlap, we use the Glauber model and include effects of final-state interactions. We then use the prefragment mass distribution from abrasion with a statistical evaporation model to estimate the neutron spectrum resulting from ablation. Measurements of neutron production from Ne and Nb beams are compared with calculations, and good agreement is found.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

$f$ 0 (980) production in inelastic pp collisions at s = 5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of f 0 (980) in inelastic pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV is presented. This is the first reported measurement of inclusive f 0 (980) yield at LHC energies. The production is measured at midrapidity, |y| < 0.5, in a wide transverse momentum range, 0 < p T < 16 GeV/c, by reconstructing the resonance in the f 0 (980) → π + π - hadronic decay channel using the ALICE detector. The p T -differential yields are compared to those of pions, protons and $φ$ mesons as well as to predictions from the HERWIG 7.2 QCD-inspired Monte Carlo event generator and calculations from a coalescence model that uses the AMPT model as an input. The ratio of the p T -integrated yield of f 0 (980) relative to pions is compared to measurements in e + e - and pp collisions at lower energies and predictions from statistical hadronisation models and HERWIG 7.2. A mild collision energy dependence of the f 0 (980) to pion production is observed in pp collisions from SPS to LHC energies. All considered models underpredict the p T -integrated 2f 0 (980)/(π + +π - ) ratio. The prediction from the canonical statistical hadronisation model assuming a zero total strangeness content of f 0 (980) is consistent with the data within 1.9σ and is the closest to the data. The results provide an essential reference for future measurements of the particle yield and nuclear modification in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions, which have been proposed to be instrumental to probe the elusive nature and quark composition of the f 0 (980) scalar meson.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for new phenomena in three- or four-lepton events in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search with minimal model dependence for physics beyond the Standard Model in events featuring three or four charged leptons (3ℓ and 4ℓ, ℓ = e,μ) is presented. The analysis aims to be sensitive to a wide range of potential new-physics theories simultaneously. This analysis uses data from pp collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV and recorded with the ATLAS detector, corresponding to the full Run 2 dataset of 139 fb -1 . The 3ℓ and 4ℓ phase space is divided into 22 event categories according to the number of leptons in the event, the missing transverse momentum, the invariant mass of the leptons, and the presence of leptons originating from a Z-boson candidate. These event categories are analysed independently for the presence of deviations from the Standard Model. No statistically significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed. Upper limits for all signal regions are reported in terms of the visible cross-section.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Effects of Selenium Doping in Zinc Telluride from First Principles

We report point defects and compensation in zinc telluride have been subjects of study for several decades due to the compound’s scientific/technological applications. Despite this, there remains some disagreement in the literature as to the fine details of its defect chemistry. Recently, it has also come under renewed interest due to the emerging Cd( 1–x )Zn x Te( 1–y )Se y material family, used in nuclear radiation detector applications. In this article, we use state-of-the-art computational tools to re-examine the native defect chemistry of ZnTe and explore how it changes upon addition of selenium using density functional theory with screened hybrid exchange–correlation functionals, thermochemical models of the equilibration environment, and statistical mechanics models of the point defect ensemble.

II-VI semiconductors↗

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~10 –3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67–002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302–102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Framework for phase transitions between the Maxwell and Gibbs constructions at finite temperature

The characteristics of the hadron-to-quark first-order phase transition differ depending on whether charge neutrality is locally or globally fulfilled. In 𝛽-equilibrated matter, these two possibilities correspond to the Maxwell and Gibbs constructions. Recently, we presented a new framework in which a continuously varying parameter allows one to describe a first-order phase transition in intermediate scenarios to the two extremes of fully local and fully global charge neutrality. In this work, we extend the previous framework to finite temperatures and out-of-𝛽 equilibrium conditions, making it available for simulations of core-collapse supernovae and binary neutron star mergers. We investigate its impact on key thermodynamic quantities across a range of baryon densities, temperatures, and electron fractions. We find that when matter is not in 𝛽 equilibrium, the pressure in the mixed phase is not constant even for the case of fully local charge neutrality. Moreover, we compute the thermal index using three different approaches, demonstrating that the finite-temperature extension of an equation of state using a constant thermal index can be ill defined when applied to the mixed phase.

QCD phase transitions↗

Magnetic dipole γ-ray strength functions in the crossover from spherical to deformed neodymium isotopes

We calculate the magnetic dipole $\gamma$-ray strength functions in a chain of even-mass neodymium isotopes $^{144-152}$Nd in the framework of the configuration-interaction (CI) shell model. We infer the strength function by applying the maximum entropy method (MEM) to the exact imaginary-time response function calculated with the shell-model Monte Carlo (SMMC) method. The success of the MEM depends on the choice of a good strength function as a prior distribution. We investigate two choices for the prior strength function: the static path approximation (SPA) and the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA). We find that the QRPA is a better approximation at low temperatures (i.e., near the ground state), while the SPA is a better choice at finite temperatures. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the MEM deexcitation $M1$ strength functions of the even-mass neodymium isotopes and compare with recent experimental results for the total deexcitation $\gamma$-ray strength functions. The LEE is already seen in the SPA strength function but not in the QRPA strength function, indicating the importance of large-amplitude static fluctuations around the mean field in reproducing the LEE. Our method is currently the only one which can reproduce LEE in heavy open-shell nuclei where conventional CI shell model calculations are prohibited. With the onset of deformation as number of neutrons increases along the chain of neodymium isotopes, we observe that some of the LEE strength transfers to a low-energy excitation, which we interpret as a finite-temperature ``scissors'' mode. Here, we also observe a finite-temperature spin-flip mode.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Polarimetric Radar Analysis of Ice Microphysical Processes in Melting Layers of Winter Storms Using S-Band Quasi-Vertical Profiles

Quasi-vertical profiles (QVPs) obtained from a database of U.S. WSR-88D data are used to document polarimetric characteristics of the melting layer (ML) in cold-season storms with high vertical resolution and accuracy. A polarimetric technique to define the top and bottom of the ML is first introduced. Using the QVPs, statistical relationships are developed to gain insight into the evolution of microphysical processes above, within, and below the ML, leading to a statistical polarimetric model of the ML that reveals characteristics that reflectivity data alone are not able to provide, particularly in regions of weak reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization Z H . QVP ML statistics are examined for two regimes in the ML data: Z H ≥ 20 dB Z and Z H < 20 dB Z . Regions of Z H ≥ 20 dB Z indicate locations of MLs collocated with enhanced differential reflectivity Z DR and reduced copolar correlation coefficient ρ hv , while for Z H < 20 dB Z a well-defined ML is difficult to discern using Z H alone. Evidence of large Z DR up to 4 dB, backscatter differential phase δ up to 8°, and low ρ hv down to 0.80 associated with lower Z H (from -10 to 20 dB Z ) in the ML is observed when pristine, nonaggregated ice falls through it. Positive correlation is documented between maximum specific differential phase K DP and maximum Z H in the ML; these are the first QVP observations of K DP in MLs documented at S band. Negative correlation occurs between minimum ρ hv in the ML and ML depth and between minimum ρ hv in the ML and the corresponding enhancement of Z H (Δ Z H = Z H max - Z H rain ).

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

State-to-State Molecular Reactions in the Ultracold Regime (Final Scientific Report)

We have achieved the proposed goal to experimentally probe the AB + CD and AB + C types of reactions with state-to-state resolution, which we also compared to advanced theoretical calculations to help elucidate the role of quantum mechanics in the processes of bond breakage and formation. Our approach uses reactants that are prepared at ultracold temperatures (< 1µK) such that the quantum effects of translational motion are an important factor. Specific example reactions, including the potassium-rubidium metathesis reaction KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 as well as the atom exchange reaction Rb + KRb → Rb2 + K, are chosen because the technology of quantum internal and motional state control of these types of molecules is particularly advanced. The results for the entire funding period are fruitful. For the majority of this grant, we have constructed a one-of-the-kind quantum degenerate gas apparatus that integrates ion detection and velocity map imaging capabilities, allowing us to explore the KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 bimolecular reaction in detail. Specifically, we first verified such a reaction indeed proceed at ultracold temperatures by direct detection of reaction products. We then mapped out the complete product state distribution, which was compared to a state-counting model based on statistical theory. Our results show an overall agreement with the statistical state counting model, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. An exact quantum calculation for molecule-molecule collisions, that is needed to understand these deviations, is however beyond the current state-of-the-art. Beside scrutinizing the reaction products, we also directly observe the reaction intermediate complex, which was quite a surprise to us. The intermediate complexes are long-lived and can interact with the inferred light that we use to trap the ultracold gas. After molecule-molecule collisions, we then explored the more theoretically tractable Rb + KRb reaction, which is endothermic. Surprisingly, we observed an exceedingly long-lived KRb$^*_2$ collisional complexes, with our experimentally measured complex lifetime deviating from conventional theoretical calculations by five orders of magnitude. This discrepancy has motivated many explorations of possible underlying causes, though no model yet captures this phenomenon completely. In the final year and the work that continues today, we extend upon these atom-molecule collision experiments to explore the origin of the long-lived KRb$^*_2$ complex lifetime and develop means to control the outcome of the reaction complex. The 5-year funded work advanced our understanding of chemical reactions at the lowest possible temperatures and at the same time opened up many new questions that are beyond our initial imaginations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A hybrid data–model approach to map soil thickness in mountain hillslopes

Abstract. Soil thickness plays a central role in the interactions between vegetation, soils, and topography, where it controls the retention and release of water, carbon, nitrogen, and metals. However, mapping soil thickness, here defined as the mobile regolith layer, at high spatial resolution remains challenging. Here, we develop a hybrid model that combines a process-based model and empirical relationships to estimate the spatial heterogeneity of soil thickness with fine spatial resolution (0.5 m). We apply this model to two aspects of hillslopes (southwest- and northeast-facing, respectively) in the East River watershed in Colorado. Two independent measurement methods – auger and cone penetrometer – are used to sample soil thickness at 78 locations to calibrate the local value of unconstrained parameters within the hybrid model. Sensitivity analysis using the hybrid model reveals that the diffusion coefficient used in hillslope diffusion modeling has the largest sensitivity among all input parameters. In addition, our results from both sampling and modeling show that, in general, the northeast-facing hillslope has a deeper soil layer than the southwest-facing hillslope. By comparing the soil thickness estimated between a machine-learning approach and this hybrid model, the hybrid model provides higher accuracy and requires less sampling data. Modeling results further reveal that the southwest-facing hillslope has a slightly faster surface soil erosion rate and soil production rate than the northeast-facing hillslope, which suggests that the relatively less dense vegetation cover and drier surface soils on the southwest-facing slopes influence soil properties. With seven parameters in total for calibration, this hybrid model can provide a realistic soil thickness map with a relatively small amount of sampling dataset comparing to machine-learning approach. Integrating process-based modeling and statistical analysis not only provides a thorough understanding of the fundamental mechanisms for soil thickness prediction but also integrates the strengths of both statistical approaches and process-based modeling approaches.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nonlinear viscoelasticity and relaxation phenomena of polymer solids

In the light of a three-chain model of statistical network theories of rubberlike elastic models, it is assumed that the free energy function of incompressible viscoelastic polymer solids is a separable, symmetric function of the principle stretch ratios and the hidden thermodynamic coordinates along the same directions. This assumption leads to a characterization of those viscoelastic polymer solids which exhibit the property of factorizability between the time and strain functions.

Peng, S. T. J.↗

Real-time three-dimensional color doppler evaluation of the flow convergence zone for quantification of mitral regurgitation: Validation experimental animal study and initial clinical experience

BACKGROUND: Pitfalls of the flow convergence (FC) method, including 2-dimensional imaging of the 3-dimensional (3D) geometry of the FC surface, can lead to erroneous quantification of mitral regurgitation (MR). This limitation may be mitigated by the use of real-time 3D color Doppler echocardiography (CE). Our objective was to validate a real-time 3D navigation method for MR quantification. METHODS: In 12 sheep with surgically induced chronic MR, 37 different hemodynamic conditions were studied with real-time 3DCE. Using real-time 3D navigation, the radius of the largest hemispherical FC zone was located and measured. MR volume was quantified according to the FC method after observing the shape of FC in 3D space. Aortic and mitral electromagnetic flow probes and meters were balanced against each other to determine reference MR volume. As an initial clinical application study, 22 patients with chronic MR were also studied with this real-time 3DCE-FC method. Left ventricular (LV) outflow tract automated cardiac flow measurement (Toshiba Corp, Tokyo, Japan) and real-time 3D LV stroke volume were used to quantify the reference MR volume (MR volume = 3DLV stroke volume - automated cardiac flow measurement). RESULTS: In the sheep model, a good correlation and agreement was seen between MR volume by real-time 3DCE and electromagnetic (y = 0.77x + 1.48, r = 0.87, P <.001, delta = -0.91 +/- 2.65 mL). In patients, real-time 3DCE-derived MR volume also showed a good correlation and agreement with the reference method (y = 0.89x - 0.38, r = 0.93, P <.001, delta = -4.8 +/- 7.6 mL). CONCLUSIONS: real-time 3DCE can capture the entire FC image, permitting geometrical recognition of the FC zone geometry and reliable MR quantification.

Validation Studies↗

Visual detection of spatial contrast patterns: evaluation of five simple models

The ModelFest Phase One dataset is a collection of luminance contrast thresholds for 43 two-dimensional monochromatic spatial patterns confined to an area of approximately two by two degrees. These data were collected by a collaboration among twelve laboratories, and were designed to provide a common database for calibration and testing of spatial vision models. Here I report fits of the ModelFest data with five models: Peak Contrast, Contrast Energy, Generalized Energy, a Gabor Channels model, and a Discrete Cosine Transform model. The Gabor Channels model provides the best fit, though the other, simpler models, with the exception of Peak Contrast, provide remarkably good fits as well. Though there are clear individual differences, regularities in the data suggest the possibility of constructing a standard observer for spatial vision. c2000 Optical Society of America.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗