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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Origin of Electron Boomerang Stripes: Statistical Study

In the outer radiation belt, localized ultralow frequency (ULF) waves can interact with energetic electrons by drift resonance, leading to quasiperiodic oscillations. The oscillations in the pitch angle spectrum can be characterized by either boomerang-shaped or straight stripes. Previous studies have shown that boomerang-shaped stripes evolve from straight ones when electrons drift away from the localized wave interaction region. Based on the time-of-flight technique on the pitch angle-dependent drift velocity, the origin can be remotely identified from the pitch angle dispersion. Here, we report 27 straight stripe events and 86 boomerang-shaped events observed by Van Allen Probes from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017. Statistical study shows a good coincidence between the locations of straight ones and traceback regions from boomerang-shaped ones. These locations, mainly located in noon-to-dusk region, coincide well with the plasmaspheric plumes. Thus, localized ULF waves trapped in the plume may result in the preference of localized ULF wave-electron interactions at noon-to-dusk region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Survey of Magnetic Flux Integral Quantities in Saturn's Magnetosphere

Magnetic flux integral quantities (e.g., flux tube entropy, flux tube content) are conserved quantities under the frozen-in assumption. The change of these quantities often indicates the violation of the frozen-in condition (e.g., interchange instability). In this study, we combine the Cassini CAPS and CHEMS moments data with a steady-state magnetic field model (i.e., the Caudal model) to estimate the flux tube mass and flux tube entropy in Saturn's magnetosphere. Our statistical survey found that the flux tube mass rapidly decreases with radial distance away from Saturn in the inner magnetosphere and roughly levels out in the middle magnetosphere. This indicates that the radial transport processes could occur via a double-reconnection process in the inner magnetosphere, while the radial transport processes appear to be more advective in the middle magnetosphere. Notice that Saturn's magnetosphere is stabilized by a radially increasing profile of flux tube entropy and destabilized by a radially decreasing profile of flux tube content. In this study, we also estimate the expected penetration location by using the flux tube interchange stability formalism developed by Southwood and Kivelson (1987, https://doi.org/10.1029/ja092ia01p00109). The results show that flux tube entropy can play a crucial role in braking the injections, while the flux tube content has a relatively smaller influence on the injected flux tube, being consistent with our previous case study by Wing et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac85b2).

Ma, Xuanye [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, ↗
DOE OSTI2022

$\alpha$-Clustering in atomic nuclei from first principles with statistical learning and the Hoyle state character

A long-standing crucial question with atomic nuclei is whether or not α clustering occurs there. An α particle (helium-4 nucleus) comprises two protons and two neutrons, and may be the building block of some nuclei. This is a very beautiful and fascinating idea, and is indeed plausible because the α particle is particularly stable with a large binding energy. However, direct experimental evidence has never been provided. Here, we show whether and how α(-like) objects emerge in atomic nuclei, by means of state-of-the-art quantum many-body simulations formulated from first principles, utilizing supercomputers including K/Fugaku. The obtained physical quantities exhibit agreement with experimental data. The appearance and variation of the α clustering are shown by utilizing density profiles for the nuclei beryllium-8, -10 and carbon-12. With additional insight by statistical learning, an unexpected crossover picture is presented for the Hoyle state, a critical gateway to the birth of life.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electricity consumption variation versus economic structure during COVID-19 on metropolitan statistical areas in the US

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in changes in productivity and daily life patterns, and as a result electricity consumption (EC) has also shifted. In this paper, we construct estimates of EC changes at the metropolitan level across the continental U.S., including total EC and residential EC during the initial two months of the pandemic. The total and residential data on the state level were broken down into the county level, and then metropolitan level EC estimates were aggregated from the counties included in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This work shows that the reduction in total EC is related to the shares of certain industries in an MSA, whereas regardless of the incidence level or economic structure, the residential sector shows a trend of increasing EC across the continental U.S. Since the MSAs account for 86% of the total population and 87% of the total EC of the continental U.S., the analytical result in this paper can provide important guidelines for future social-economic crises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of high-dielectric constant compounds from statistical design

Abstract The discovery of high-dielectric materials is crucial to increasing the efficiency of electronic devices and batteries. Here, we report three previously unexplored materials with very high dielectric constants (69 < ϵ < 101) and large band gaps (2.9 < E g (eV) < 5.5) obtained by screening materials databases using statistical optimization algorithms aided by artificial neural networks (ANN). Two of these new dielectrics are mixed-anion compounds (Eu 5 SiCl 6 O 4 and HoClO) and are shown to be thermodynamically stable against common semiconductors via phase diagram analysis. We also uncovered four other materials with relatively large dielectric constants (20 < ϵ < 40) and band gaps (2.3 < E g (eV) < 2.7). While the ANN training-data are obtained from the Materials Project, the search-space consists of materials from the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD)—demonstrating a successful implementation of cross-database materials design. Overall, we report the dielectric properties of 17 materials calculated using ab initio calculations, that were selected in our design workflow. The dielectric materials with high-dielectric properties predicted in this work open up further experimental research opportunities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Error statistics and scalability of quantum error mitigation formulas

Quantum computing promises advantages over classical computing in many problems. Nevertheless, noise in quantum devices prevents most quantum algorithms from achieving the quantum advantage. Quantum error mitigation provides a variety of protocols to handle such noise using minimal qubit resources. While some of those protocols have been implemented in experiments for a few qubits, it remains unclear whether error mitigation will be effective in quantum circuits with tens to hundreds of qubits. In this paper, we apply statistics principles to quantum error mitigation and analyse the scaling behaviour of its intrinsic error. We find that the error increases linearly O(ϵN) with the gate number N before mitigation and sublinearly O(ϵ'N γ ) after mitigation, where γ ≈ 0.5, ϵ is the error rate of a quantum gate, and ϵ' is a protocol-dependent factor. The $\sqrt{N}$ scaling is a consequence of the law of large numbers, and it indicates that error mitigation can suppress the error by a larger factor in larger circuits. We propose the importance Clifford sampling as a key technique for error mitigation in large circuits to obtain this result.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct observation of anyonic braiding statistics

Anyons are quasiparticles that, unlike fermions and bosons, show fractional statistics when two of them are exchanged. Here, we report experimental observation of anyonic braiding statisticsfor the ν 1/3 fractional quantum Hall state using a device that is equivalent to a Fabry-Perot interferometer. Strong Aharonov-Bohm interference of the edge mode is punctuated by discrete phase slips that indicate an anyonic phase of $\theta$ anyon = 2π/3. Here, our results are consistent with a recent theory for an interferometer operated in a regime in which device charging energy is small compared to the energy of formation of charged quasiparticles, indicating that we have observed anyonic braiding.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precision test of statistical dynamics with state-to-state ultracold chemistry

Chemical reactions represent a class of quantum problems that challenge both the current theoretical understanding and computational capabilities1. Reactions that occur at ultralow temperatures provide an ideal testing ground for quantum chemistry and scattering theories, because they can be experimentally studied with unprecedented control, yet display dynamics that are highly complex. Here we report the full product state distribution for the reaction 2KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 . Ultracold preparation of the reactants allows us complete control over their initial quantum degrees of freedom, whereas state-resolved, coincident detection of both products enables the probability of scattering into each of the 57 allowed rotational state-pairs to be measured. Our results show an overall agreement with a state-counting model based on statistical theory, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. In particular, we observe a strong suppression of population in the state-pair closest to the exoergicity limit as a result of the long-range potential inhibiting the escape of products. Finally, the completeness of our measurements provides a benchmark for quantum dynamics calculations beyond the current state of the art.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK IV. On end-to-end simulations in CMB analysis — Bayesian versus frequentist statistics

End-to-end simulations play a key role in the analysis of any high-sensitivity cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment, providing high-fidelity systematic error propagation capabilities that are unmatched by any other means. In this paper, we address an important issue regarding such simulations, namely, how to define the inputs in terms of sky model and instrument parameters. These may either be taken as a constrained realization derived from the data or as a random realization independent from the data. We refer to these as posterior and prior simulations, respectively. We show that the two options lead to significantly different correlation structures, as prior simulations (contrary to posterior simulations) effectively include cosmic variance, but they exclude realization-specific correlations from non-linear degeneracies. Consequently, they quantify fundamentally different types of uncertainties. We argue that as a result, they also have different and complementary scientific uses, even if this dichotomy is not absolute. In particular, posterior simulations are in general more convenient for parameter estimation studies, while prior simulations are generally more convenient for model testing. Before BEYONDPLANCK, most pipelines used a mix of constrained and random inputs and applied the same hybrid simulations for all applications, even though the statistical justification for this is not always evident. BEYONDPLANCK represents the first end-to-end CMB simulation framework that is able to generate both types of simulations and these new capabilities have brought this topic to the forefront. The BEYONDPLANCK posterior simulations and their uses are described extensively in a suite of companion papers. In this work, we consider one important applications of the corresponding prior simulations, namely, code validation. Specifically, we generated a set of one-year LFI 30 GHz prior simulations with known inputs and we used these to validate the core low-level BEYONDPLANCK algorithms dealing with gain estimation, correlated noise estimation, and mapmaking.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validating Nuclear Data Uncertainties Obtained from a Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data with the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” Method

Concerns within the nuclear data community led to substantial increases of Neutron Data Standards (NDS) uncertainties from its previous to the current version. For example, those associated with the NDS reference cross section 239 Pu(n,f) increased from 0.6–1.6% to 1.3–1.7% from 0.1–20 MeV. These cross sections, among others, were adopted, e.g., by ENDF/B-VII.1 (previous NDS) and ENDF/B-VIII.0 (current NDS). There has been a strong desire to be able to validate these increases based on objective criteria given their impact on our understanding of various application uncertainties. Here, the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” method (PUBs) by Vaughan et al. is applied to validate evaluated uncertainties obtained by a statistical analysis of experimental data. We investigate with PUBs whether ENDF/B-VII.1 or ENDF/B-VIII.0 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section uncertainties are more realistic given the information content used for the actual evaluation. It is shown that the associated conservative (1.5–1.8%) and minimal realistic (1.1–1.3%) uncertainty bounds obtained by PUBs enclose ENDF/B-VIII.0 uncertainties and indicate that ENDF/B-VII.1 uncertainties are underestimated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating quantum optics experiments with statistical learning

Quantum optics experiments, involving the measurement of low-probability photon events, are known to be extremely time-consuming. We present a methodology for accelerating such experiments using physically motivated ansatzes together with simple statistical learning techniques such as Bayesian maximum a posteriori estimation based on few-shot data. We show that it is possible to reconstruct time-dependent data using a small number of detected photons, allowing for fast estimates in under a minute and providing a one-to-two order of magnitude speed-up in data acquisition time. We test our approach using real experimental data to retrieve the second order intensity correlation function, G (2) ($τ$), as a function of time delay τ between detector counts, for thermal light as well as anti-bunched light emitted by a quantum dot driven by periodic laser pulses. The proposed methodology has a wide range of applicability and has the potential to impact the scientific discovery process across a multitude of domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hall conductance and the statistics of flux insertions in gapped interacting lattice systems

We study charge transport for zero-temperature infinite-volume gapped lattice systems in two dimensions with short-range interactions. We show that the Hall conductance is locally computable and is the same for all systems that are in the same gapped phase. Here, we provide a rigorous version of Laughlin’s flux-insertion argument, which shows that for short-range entangled systems, the Hall conductance is an integer multiple of e 2 / h . We show that the Hall conductance determines the statistics of flux insertions. For bosonic short-range entangled systems, this implies that the Hall conductance is an even multiple of e 2 / h . Finally, we adapt a proof of quantization of the Thouless charge pump to the case of infinite-volume gapped lattice systems in one dimension.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interface learning in fluid dynamics: Statistical inference of closures within micro–macro-coupling models

Many complex multiphysics systems in fluid dynamics involve using solvers with varied levels of approximations in different regions of the computational domain to resolve multiple spatiotemporal scales present in the flow. The accuracy of the solution is governed by how the information is exchanged between these solvers at the interface and several methods have been devised for such coupling problems. In this article, we construct a data-driven model by spatially coupling a microscale lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) solver and macroscale finite difference method (FDM) solver for reaction-diffusion systems. The coupling between the micro-macro solvers has one to many mapping at the interface leading to the interface closure problem, and we propose a statistical inference method based on neural networks to learn this closure relation. The performance of the proposed framework in a bifidelity setting partitioned between the FDM and LBM domain shows its promise for complex systems where analytical relations between micro-macro solvers are not available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of photon statistics and multimode field correlations by Raman processes

Glauber’s g (2) -function provides a common measure of quantum field statistics through two-photon coincidence counting in Hanbury Brown–Twiss measurements. Here, we propose to use nonlinear optical signals as a tool for the characterization of quantum light. In particular, we show that Raman measurements provide an alternative direct probe for a different component of the four-point correlation function underlying the g (2) -function. We illustrate this capacity for a specific quantum state obtained from a frequency conversion process. Our work points out how the analysis of controlled optical nonlinear processes can provide an alternative window toward the analysis of quantum light sources.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical study of three-second foreshock ULF waves observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission

We perform a statistical study of 3-s ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves using Magnetospheric Multiscale observations in the Earth's foreshock region. The average phase velocity in the plasma rest frame is determined to be anti-sunward, and the intrinsic polarization is right-handed. We further examine the linear instability conditions based on the drift-bi-Maxwellian distribution functions according to the observed plasma conditions. The resulting instability is a solution to the common dispersion equation of the ion/ion right-hand non-resonant and left-hand resonant instabilities. The predicted wave propagation is also predominantly anti-sunward. The cyclotron resonant conditions of the solar wind and backstreaming beam ions are evaluated, and we find that, in some cases, the anti-sunward propagating waves can be resonant with beam ions, which was overlooked in previous studies. The study suggests that the dispersion equation provides the 3-s ULF waves a fundamental explanation that unifies a rich variety of resonant conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal-fluctuation effects on small-scale statistics in turbulent gas flow

Kolmogorov's theory of turbulence assumes that the small-scale turbulent structures in the energy cascade are universal and are determined by the energy dissipation rate and the kinematic viscosity alone. However, thermal fluctuations, absent from the continuum description, terminate the energy cascade near the Kolmogorov length scale. Here, we propose a simple superposition model to account for the effects of thermal fluctuations on small-scale turbulence statistics. Furthermore, for compressible Taylor–Green vortex flow, we demonstrate that the superposition model in conjunction with data from direct numerical simulation of the Navier–Stokes equations yields spectra and structure functions that agree with the corresponding quantities computed from the direct simulation Monte Carlo method of molecular gas dynamics, verifying the importance of thermal fluctuations in the dissipation range.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗