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At least 955 records · Page 53

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗

Validation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products from TRMM to GPM

The global precipitation measurement mission (GPM) has been in operation for seven years and continues to provide a vast quantity of global precipitation data at finer temporospatial resolutions with improved accuracy and coverage. GPM’s signature algorithm, the integrated multisatellite retrievals for GPM (IMERG) is a next-generation of precipitation product expected for wide variety of research and operational applications. This study evaluates the latest version (V06B) of IMERG and its predecessor, the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) multisatellite precipitation (TMPA) 3B42 (V7) using ground-based and gauge-corrected multiradar multisensor system (MRMS) precipitation products over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The spatial distributions of all products are analyzed. The error characteristics are further examined for 3B42 and IMERG in winter and summer by an error decomposition approach, which partitions total bias into hit bias, biases due to missed precipitation and false precipitation. The volumetric and categorical statistical metrics are used to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the two satellite-based products. All products show a similar precipitation climatology with some regional differences. The two satellite-based products perform better in the eastern CONUS than in the mountainous Western CONUS. The evaluation demonstrates the clear improvement in IMERG precipitation product in comparison with its predecessor 3B42, especially in reducing missed precipitation in winter and summer, and hit bias in winter, resulting in better performance in capturing lighter and heavier precipitation.

MRMS↗

Systems and methods for quality of service (QoS) based management of bottlenecks and flows in networks

Techniques based on the Theory of Bottleneck Ordering can reveal the bottleneck structure of a network, and the Theory of Flow ordering can take advantage of the revealed bottleneck structure to manage and configure network flows so as to improve the overall network performance. These two techniques provide insights into the inherent topological properties of a network at least in three areas: (1) identification of the regions of influence of each bottleneck; (2) the order in which bottlenecks (and flows traversing them) may converge to their steady state transmission rates in distributed congestion control algorithms; and (3) the design of optimized traffic engineering policies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerated steady-state electrostatic particle-in-cell simulation of Langmuir probes

First-principles particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation is a powerful tool for understanding plasma behavior, but this power often comes at great computational expense. Artificially reducing the ion/electron mass ratio is a time-honored practice to reduce simulation costs. Usually, this is a severe approximation. However, for steady-state collisionless, electrostatic (Vlasov–Poisson) systems, the solution with reduced mass ratio can be scaled to the solution for the real mass ratio, with no approximation. This “scaled mass” method, which works with already-existing PIC codes, can reduce the computation time for a large class of electrostatic PIC simulations by the square root of the mass ratio. The particle distributions of the resulting steady state must be trivially rescaled to yield the true distributions, but the self-consistent electrostatic field is independent of the mass ratio. This method is equivalent to “numerical timestepping,” an approach that evolves electron and ion populations with different time steps. Numerical timestepping can be viewed as a special case of the speed-limited PIC (SLPIC) method, which is not restricted to steady-state phenomena. Although the scaled-mass approach is simplest, numerical timestepping and SLPIC more easily generalize to include other effects, such as collisions. The equivalence of these new approaches is demonstrated by applying them to simulate a cylindrical Langmuir probe in electron–argon plasma, speeding up simulation by two orders of magnitude. Methods such as SLPIC can therefore play an invaluable role in interpreting probe measurements by including geometric effects, collisions, secondary emission, and non-Maxwellian distributions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Notice of Illegal Foreign Pesticides Entering the United States: Information Bulletin v.01

This information bulletin is intended to generate a heightened awareness of illicit pesticide importation, distribution, and use in the United States. This bulletin focuses on solid, fumigant materials which are primarily used in the production of marijuana growth and cultivation. Exposure to illicit pesticides, fumigant fumes, or residual materials may pose a public health and officer safety concern. Many illegal fumigant pesticide products have been seized and determined to consist of a mixture of several pesticides and is often in contrast with the pesticide labelling. This information bulletin is not a complete account of all illegal pesticides found in country; it serves to highlight frequently encountered materials and present patterns in product presentation, packaging, and shipment containment which are intended to aid in identification and intervention. Other varieties of illegal pesticide fumigants are known to exist, and additional variations are expected to be encountered in policing intervention. This bulletin includes information on the presentation of illegal pesticides, label review recommendations, a field reference guide, which includes example photographs of seized pesticide/fumigants and their labels, and related United States federal regulation information, including relevant tariff code information for reference.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Alternative Architectures for Distributed Cooperative Problem-Solving in the National Airspace System

The air traffic management system in the United States is an example of a distributed problem solving system. It has elements of both cooperative and competitive problem-solving. This system includes complex organizations such as Airline Operations Centers (AOCs), the FAA Air Traffic Control Systems Command Center (ATCSCC), and traffic management units (TMUs) at enroute centers and TRACONs, all of which have a major focus on strategic decision-making. It also includes individuals concerned more with tactical decisions (such as air traffic controllers and pilots). The architecture for this system has evolved over time to rely heavily on the distribution of tasks and control authority in order to keep cognitive complexity manageable for any one individual operator, and to provide redundancy (both human and technological) to serve as a safety net to catch the slips or mistakes that any one person or entity might make. Currently, major changes are being considered for this architecture, especially with respect to the locus of control, in an effort to improve efficiency and safety. This paper uses a series of case studies to help evaluate some of these changes from the perspective of system complexity, and to point out possible alternative approaches that might be taken to improve system performance. The paper illustrates the need to maintain a clear understanding of what is required to assure a high level of performance when alternative system architectures and decompositions are developed.

Smith, Phillip J.↗

Molecular axis distribution moments in ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy: A path toward ultrafast quantum state tomography

In ultrafast time-resolved experiments with gas phase molecules, the alignment of the molecular axis relative to the polarization of the interacting laser pulses plays a crucial role in determining the dynamics following this light–matter interaction. The molecular axis distribution is influenced by the interacting pulses and is intrinsically linked to the electronic coherences of the excited molecules. However, in typical theoretical calculations of such interactions, the signal is either calculated for a single molecule in the molecular frame or averaged over all possible molecular orientations to compare with the experiment. Such averaging removes information about anisotropy in the molecular-axis distribution, even though anisotropic contributions can play a significant role in the measured experimental signal. Here, we calculate the laboratory frame transient electronic first-order polarization [P (1) ] spectra in terms of separated molecular frame and laboratory frame quantities. The laboratory frame polarizations are compared with orientation-averaged quantum master equation calculations, demonstrating that orientation-averaging captures only the isotropic contributions. We show that our formalism also allows us to evaluate the anisotropic contributions to the spectrum. Lastly, we discuss the application of this approach to achieve ultrafast quantum state tomography using transient absorption spectroscopy and field observables in nonlinear spectroscopy.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

A steering law for a roof-type configuration for a single-gimbal control moment gyro system

Single-Gimbal Control Moment Gyro (SGCMG) systems have been investigated for attitude control of the Large Space Telescope (LST) and the High Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAO). However, various proposed steering laws for the SGCMG systems thus far have some defects because of singular states of the system. In this report, a steering law for a roof-type SGCMG system is proposed which is based on a new momentum distribution scheme that makes all the singular states unstable. This momentum distribution scheme is formulated by a treatment of the system as a sampled-data system. From analytical considerations, it is shown that this steering law gives control performance which is satisfactory for practical applications. Results of the preliminary computer simulation entirely support this premise.

Yoshikawa, T.↗

Self-Gravitating Fundamental Strings and Black Holes

The configuration of typically highly excited M much greater than M(sub s) which is approximately equal to alpha(prime) to the 1/2 power string states is considered as the string coupling g is adiabatically increased. The size distribution of very massive single string states is studied and the mass shift, due to a long-range gravitational, dilatonic, and axionic attraction, is estimated.

Damour, T.↗

The Miniaturized Moessbauer Spectrometer MIMOS II of the Athena Payload for the 2003 MER Missions

A first-order requirement of spacecraft missions that land on Mars is instrumentation for in situ mineralogical analysis. Moessbauer Spectroscopy is a powerful tool for quantitative analysis of Fe-bearing materials. The Athena Moessbauer spectrometer MIMOS II on the martian surface will provide: (1) identification of iron-bearing phases (e.g., oxides, silicates, sulfides, sulfates, and carbonates), (2) quantitative measurement of the distribution of iron among its oxidation states (e.g., Fe(2+)/Fe(3+) ratio), and (3) quantitative measurement of the distribution of iron among iron-bearing phases (e.g., the relative proportions of iron in olivine, pyroxene, and magnetite in a basalt) in rocks and soils. Moessbauer data will also be highly complementary with chemical analyses from the APXS and the Mini-TES compositional data. Mars is a particularly good place to do Moessbauer mineralogy because its surface is iron rich (approx. 20% Fe as Fe2O3). Moessbauer spectrometers that are built with backscatter measurement geometry require no sample preparation, a factor important for in situ planetary measurements.

G Klingelhoefer↗

Integrated Multi-Fidelity Model and Co-Simulation Platform for Distribution System Transient and Dynamic Analysis—DistribuDyn

As inverter-based, distributed energy resources (DERs) and variable loads continue to proliferate across distribution systems, it is increasingly important to understand their impacts on system stability and reliability. However, most commercially available simulation tools for distribution planning primarily focus on steady-state and quasi-steady state analysis, offering limited capabilities to study transient and dynamic behaviors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The DESI PRObabilistic Value-added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) Mock Challenge

The PRObabilistic Value-added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass ($M*$), star formation rate (SFR), stellar metallicity (Z), and stellar age ($t_{age}$), for >10 million galaxies of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, the neural emulator for the model, and the Bayesian inference framework of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-Galaxies semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true values of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true $M*$, SFR, Z, and $t_{age}$ of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors, which we characterize in detail. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses. https://github.com/changhoonhahn/provabgs/

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solid State Power Substations (SSPS): A Multi-Hierarchical Architecture from Substation to Grid Edge

With the growing deployment of distributed generation, or power electronic interfaced renewable energy and storage technologies, the nature and behavior of the grid is changing. Synchronous machine-driven asset contributions to the generation mix are shrinking, leading to concerns regarding grid stability. Furthermore, the scale of smaller distributed PE resources needed for managing the electrical network could dwarf the existing system leading to more complex optimization problems and communication interconnections. This paper introduces the concept of a hierarchal system of controllers that spans the grid edge or the customer end to distribution scale substations or solid-state power substation (SSPS). This concept focuses on minimizing the number of interfaces and optimization considerations in the grid by clustering resources into nodes and hubs. The work validates the concept in a controller hardware-in-the-loop (cHIL) platform.

Chinthavali, Madhu Sudhan↗

Random Tensor Networks with Non-trivial Links

Abstract Random tensor networks are a powerful toy model for understanding the entanglement structure of holographic quantum gravity. However, unlike holographic quantum gravity, their entanglement spectra are flat. It has therefore been argued that a better model consists of random tensor networks with link states that are not maximally entangled, i.e., have non-trivial spectra. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of the entanglement properties of these networks. We employ tools from free probability, random matrix theory, and one-shot quantum information theory to study random tensor networks with bounded and unbounded variation in link spectra, and in cases where a subsystem has one or multiple minimal cuts. If the link states have bounded spectral variation, the limiting entanglement spectrum of a subsystem with two minimal cuts can be expressed as a free product of the entanglement spectra of each cut, along with a Marchenko–Pastur distribution. For a class of states with unbounded spectral variation, analogous to semiclassical states in quantum gravity, we relate the limiting entanglement spectrum of a subsystem with two minimal cuts to the distribution of the minimal entanglement across the two cuts. In doing so, we draw connections to previous work on split transfer protocols, entanglement negativity in random tensor networks, and Euclidean path integrals in quantum gravity.

Physics↗

Densities and vibrational distribution of H(3+) in the Jovian auroral ionosphere

The assumption that H(3+) is in LTE in the region of the Jovian ionosphere from which the emissions originate is tested by calculating the vibrational distribution of H(3+) over the altitude range of 350 to 1500 km above the methane cloud tops. A model of the Jovian auroral ionosphere is constructed in which the neutral temperatures are enhanced over those of the midlatitude ionosphere, as suggested by observations and models of the auroral region. The energy and energy flux were found to be less than those involved in the production of the UV aurora. A computation of the densities and vibrational distribution shows that the distribution of the six lowest states of H(3+) can be determined fairly well in spite of uncertainties in the atomic and molecular data. The computed altitude profiles and vibrational distributions of H(3+) and H2 are consistent with the observations of IR emission in the 2- and 4-micron regions.

Kim, Y. H.↗

Polarization-agnostic continuous-variable quantum key distribution

Here, we introduce a polarization-agnostic method for Gaussian-modulated coherent-state (GCMS) continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD). Due to the random and continuous nature of the GCMS protocol, Alice, the transmitter, can encode two distinct quadratures in each of two orthogonal polarization modes, such that Bob, the receiver, measures valid GCMS quadratures in a single polarization mode even when polarization changes occur during transmission. This method does not require polarization correction in the optical domain, does not require monitoring both polarization modes, reduces loss by eliminating optical components, and avoids the noise injected by polarization correction algorithms.

Williams, Brian P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

A Review of the Generic Grid-Forming Model Used by the System Operator in Chile

The objective in this project is to verify the applicability of using generic electro-magnetic transient domain models of GFM technology through a wide range of tests and system conditions proposed by subject matter experts of GFM technology through a wide range of tests and system conditions proposed by subject matter experts. For this study, we used the generic GFM electro-magnetic transient model available in the EMTP (Electromagnetic Transient Program) software library, and we assessed the model’s various GFM capabilities through 12 tests. In this report, we compare the performance of the model with that of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) GFM model. We also share the key insights and lessons learned from this work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗