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At least 955 records · Page 53

Spacecraft Fire Safety Predictions using Verified Saffire Model

A model developed using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that aimed to determine the effect of a fire in a spacecraft was validated by data collected during the Saffire campaign. The model used inlet and outlet temperatures and CO 2 concentrations of the Saffire payload where fire spread was taking place to determine the amount of heat and combustion products that made it into Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus vehicle. The model was then validated using six remote sensors in various places in the vehicle, as well as a far field device (FFD) in the open zenith section that was representative of average vehicle values. The current work focuses on using the model to predict fire safety scenarios. One simulation aimed to determine the fate of HCl, which sticks to surfaces. The model prediction showed that the HCl was removed from the atmosphere rapidly. This compared well against the FFD data in the Saffire VI campaign event where a bottle of 5% HCl was released into the vehicle. An additional simulation where the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) was shut off once the FFD reached 5 ppm of HCl showed that HCl stayed in the atmosphere considerably longer. Continuing the simulation with the ECLSS activated and after temperatures returned to their initial conditions, resulted in a rapid removal of HCL similar to that observed in the original HCl release scenario model. Finally, a simulation that used the heat release rate from a lithium-ion battery test to determine the effect it would have on a spacecraft was performed. This simulation used a heat addition rate that is considerably higher than what was determined from the burning of solid fuels in the Saffire campaign and hence produced a non-trivial temperature increase in more locations within the vehicle.

Fire Safety↗

Seafloor hydrothermal activity and spreading rates: the Eocene carbon dioxide greenhouse revisted

A suggestion has been made that enhanced rates of hydrothermal activity during the Eocene could have caused a global warming by adding calcium to the ocean and pumping CO2 into the atmosphere (Owen and Rea, 1984). This phenomenon was purported to be consistent with the predictions of the CO2 geochemical cycle model of Berner, Lasaga and Garrels (1983) (henceforth BLAG). In fact, however, the BLAG model predicts only a weak connection between hydrothermal activity and atmospheric CO2 levels. By contrast, it predicts a strong correlation between seafloor spreading rates and pCO2, since the release rate of CO2 from carbonate metamorphism is assumed to be proportional to the mean spreading rate. The Ecocene warming can be conveniently explained if the BLAG model is extended by assuming that the rate of carbonate metamorphism is also proportional to the total length of the midocean ridges from which the spreading originates.

Seawater/chemistry↗

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (N d ) comparisons are highly variable depending on the N d retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and N d values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to N d is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and N d created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln N d distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln N d to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of N d to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved N d , and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved N d . The LWP response to N d in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–N d relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as N d increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–N d relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–N d relationship non-causal. N d retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Present-day plate motions

An instantaneous plate-motion model, Relative Motion 2 (RM2), is obtained by inverting a data set comprising 110 spreading rates, 78 transform fault azimuths, and 142 earthquake slip vectors. RM2 is compared with angular velocity vectors which best fit the data along individual plate boundaries and, while the model performs close to optimally in most regions, attention is directed to those regions which are not suitably described by the model. Reasons for the discrepancies between RM2 and observations for the India-Antarctica plate boundary, the Pacific-India plate boundary, and the east-west trending transform fault azimuths observed in the French-American Mid-Ocean Undersea Study area are discussed.

Minster, J. B.↗

A gravity current model for the May 18, 1980 Mount St. Helens plume

Observations of the stratospheric plume from the May 18, 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption suggest that it spread in the crosswind direction as an intrusive gravity current, as it was transported downwind. Grain size analyses of the plinian tephra are consistent with this model, suggesting that to distances of many hundreds of kilometers, turbulent atmospheric diffusion played a secondary role in plume spreading and tephra dispersal.

Bursik, M. I.↗

Flamelet Formation In Hele-Shaw Flow

A Hele-Shaw flow apparatus constructed at Michigan State University (MSU) produces conditions that reduce influences of buoyancy-driven flows. In addition, in the MSU Hele-Shaw apparatus it is possible to adjust the heat losses from the fuel sample (0.001 in. thick cellulose) and the flow speed of the approaching oxidizer flow (air) so that the "flamelet regime of flame spread" is entered. In this regime various features of the flame-to-smolder (and vice versa) transition can be studied. For the relatively wide (approx. 17.5 cm) and long (approx. 20 cm) samples used, approximately ten flamelets existed at all times. The flamelet behavior was studied mechanistically and statistically. A heat transfer analysis of the dominant heat transfer mechanisms was conducted. Results indicate that radiation and conduction processes are important, and that a simple 1-D model using the Broido-Shafizadeh model for cellulose decomposition chemistry can describe aspects of the flamelet spread process. Introduction

Wichman, I. S.↗

Flame Spread Across Liquids

The principal goal of our recent research on flame spread across liquid pools is the detailed identification of the mechanisms that control the rate and nature of flame spread when the liquid pool is initially at an isothermal bulk temperature that is below the fuel's flash point temperature. In our project, we specialize the subject to highlight the roles of buoyancy-related processes regarding the mechanisms of flame spread, an area of research cited recently by Linan and Williams as one that needs further attention and which microgravity (micro-g) experiments could help to resolve. Toward resolving the effects of buoyancy on this flame spread problem, comparisons - between 1-g and micro-g experimental observations, and between model predictions and experimental data at each of these gravitational levels - are extensively utilized. The present experimental and computational foundation is presented to support identification of the mechanisms that control flame spread in the pulsating flame spread regime for which long-duration, micro-g flame spread experiments have been conducted aboard a sounding rocket.

Ross, Howard D.↗

Weak shock compaction on granular salt

This study conducted integrated experiments and computational modeling to investigate the speeds of a developing shock within granular salt and analyzed the effect of various impact velocities up to 245 m/s. Experiments were conducted on table salt utilizing a novel setup with a considerable bore length for the sample, enabling visualization of a moving shock wave. Experimental analysis using particle image velocimetry enabled the characterization of shock velocity and particle velocity histories. Mesoscale simulations further enabled advanced analysis of the shock wave’s substructure. In simulations, the shock front’s precursor was shown to have a heterogeneous nature, which is usually modeled as uniform in continuum analyses. The presence of force chains results in a spread out of the shock precursor over a greater ramp distance. With increasing impact velocity, the shock front thickness reduces, and the precursor of the shock front becomes less heterogeneous. Furthermore, mesoscale modeling suggests the formation of force chains behind the shock front, even under the conditions of weak shock. This study presents novel mesoscale simulation results on salt corroborated with data from experiments, thereby characterizing the compaction front speeds in the weak shock regime.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗

Satellite signatures in SLR observations

We examine the evidence for the detection of satellite-dependent signatures in the laser range observations obtained by the UK single-photon Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) System models of the expected observation distributions from Ajisai and Lageos are developed from the published satellite spread functions and from the characteristics of the SLR System and compared with the observations. The effects of varying return strengths are discussed using the models and by experimental observations of Ajisai, during which a range of return levels from single to multiple photons is achieved. The implications of these results for system-dependent center for mass corrections are discussed.

Appleby, G. M.↗

A Two-length Scale Turbulence Model for Single-phase Multi-fluid Mixing

A two-length scale, second moment turbulence model (Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes, RANS) is proposed to capture a wide variety of single-phase flows, spanning from incompressible flows with single fluids and mixtures of different density fluids (variable density flows) to flows over shock waves. The two-length scale model was developed to address an inconsistency present in the single-length scale models, e.g. the inability to match both variable density homogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence and Rayleigh-Taylor induced turbulence, as well as the inability to match both homogeneous shear and free shear flows. The two-length scale model focuses on separating the decay and transport length scales, as the two physical processes are generally different in inhomogeneous turbulence. This allows reasonable comparisons with statistics and spreading rates over such a wide range of turbulent flows using a common set of model coefficients. The specific canonical flows considered for calibrating the model include homogeneous shear, single-phase incompressible shear driven turbulence, variable density homogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence, Rayleigh-Taylor induced turbulence, and shocked isotropic turbulence. The second moment model shows to compare reasonably well with direct numerical simulations (DNS), experiments, and theory in most cases. The model was then applied to variable density shear layer and shock tube data and shows to be in reasonable agreement with DNS and experiments. Additionally, the importance of using DNS to calibrate and assess RANS type turbulence models is highlighted.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Predictive Model for Particle Residence Time Distributions in Riser Reactors. Part 1: Model Development and Validation

Here in this computational study, we model the mixing of biomass pyrolysis vapor with solid catalyst in circulating riser reactors with a focus on the determination of solid catalyst residence time distributions (RTDs). A comprehensive set of 2D and 3D simulations were conducted for a pilot-scale riser using the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid modeling framework with and without sub-grid-scale models for the gas-solids interaction. A validation test case was also simulated and compared to experiments, showing agreement in the pressure gradient and RTD mean and spread. For simulation cases, it was found that for accurate RTD prediction, the Johnson and Jackson partial slip solids boundary condition was required for all models and a sub-grid model is useful so that ultra high resolutions grids that are very computationally intensive are not required. Finally, we discovered a 2/3 scaling relation for the RTD mean and spread when comparing resolved 2D simulations to validated unresolved 3D sub-grid-scale model simulations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Determining the Cause of Reduced Concurrent Flame Spread over Thin Solid Fuels in Low Pressure and Low Gravity

The spread of flames over the surface of solid combustible materials is affected by the environmental conditions. Variables such as flow velocity, oxygen concentration, ambient pressure, partial gravity or microgravity, may change the material flammability and influence the fire dynamics. This is an important fire safety issue for space exploration vehicles and space habitats which will very likely have different environments than those currently used on the International Space Station, such as reduced pressure and enriched oxygen concentration (SEA). However, testing experimentally the materials to be used and qualified for space exploration under these conditions is a difficult and expensive task. Here, numerical modeling is used to understand the dominant physico-chemical processes on the concurrent flame spread over thin fabrics under reduced ambient pressure (and in turn, buoyancy) and variable gravitational conditions. The numerical model uses the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS6) code with a single-step Arrhenius reaction rate for the solid phase decomposition. Different models are tested for the gas phase combustion kinetics. The model results are validated with experimental results obtained at similar reduced ambient pressure and flow conditions at 1 g. It is shown that as ambient pressure is reduced the flame spread rate over a thin fabric is also reduced, both experimentally and numerically. Numerical results are compared to an analytical approach previously developed to explain the experimental trends. Further interpretation of the model results provides information regarding the physics of the process and how they are affected by the lower pressure environments and gravity conditions. The results of this work provide guidance for potential on-earth testing for fire safety design in spacecraft and space habitats.

Fire Safety↗

Determining the Cause of Reduced Concurrent Flame Spread over Thin Solid Fuels in Low Pressure and Low Gravity

The spread of flames over the surface of solid combustible materials is affected by the environmental conditions. Variables such as flow velocity, oxygen concentration, ambient pressure, partial gravity or microgravity, may change the material flammability and influence the fire dynamics. This is an important fire safety issue for space exploration vehicles and space habitats which will very likely have different environments than those currently used on the International Space Station, such as reduced pressure and enriched oxygen concentration (SEA). However, testing experimentally the materials to be used and qualified for space exploration under these conditions is a difficult and expensive task. Here, numerical modeling is used to understand the dominant physico-chemical processes on the concurrent flame spread over thin fabrics under reduced ambient pressure (and in turn, buoyancy) and variable gravitational conditions. The numerical model uses the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS6) code with a single-step Arrhenius reaction rate for the solid phase decomposition. Different models are tested for the gas phase combustion kinetics. The model results are validated with experimental results obtained at similar reduced ambient pressure and flow conditions at 1 g. It is shown that as ambient pressure is reduced the flame spread rate over a thin fabric is also reduced, both experimentally and numerically. Numerical results are compared to an analytical approach previously developed to explain the experimental trends. Further interpretation of the model results provides information regarding the physics of the process and how they are affected by the lower pressure environments and gravity conditions. The results of this work provide guidance for potential on-earth testing for fire safety design in spacecraft and space habitats.

microgravity↗

COVID-19 Joint Pandemic Modeling and Analysis Platform

The non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19 requires the development of policies and guidance through a collaborative effort among government, academia, medicine, and citizens. To operationalize this effort, we have developed an all-encompassing situational awareness platform that can process multi-modal and multi-source data allowing informed decision making. Besides, showing the current spread of infection, the platform also captures the impact of human dynamics on the infection spread, location, and availability of critical infrastructure, prediction, and high-performance computing driven simulation. The platform is extensible, allowing third-party integration and services to consume the curated data and analytics in near real-time. We believe the platform will augment critical decision making for reducing the impact and spread of the pandemic.

Thakur, Gautam↗

On unitarity of the particle–hole dispersive optical model

For the recently developed particle-hole dispersive optical model, weak violations of unitarity due to a phenomenological description of the spreading effect are considered. Methods for unitarity restoration are proposed and implemented for the 208 Pb nucleus in the description of the energy-averaged isoscalar monopole double transition density and strength functions in a wide excitation energy interval that includes the isoscalar giant monopole resonance and its overtone. To illustrate abilities of the model, direct neutron decay of the mentioned giant resonance is also considered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Nucleation and growth kinetics for intercalated islands during deposition on layered materials with isolated pointlike surface defects

Theory and stochastic lattice-gas modeling is developed for the formation of intercalated metal islands in the gallery between the top layer and the underlying layer at the surface of layered materials. Our model for this process involves deposition of atoms, some fraction of which then enter the gallery through well-separated pointlike defects in the top layer. Subsequently, these atoms diffuse within the subsurface gallery leading to nucleation and growth of intercalated islands nearby the defect point source. For the case of a single point defect, continuum diffusion equation analysis provides insight into the nucleation kinetics. However, complementary tailored lattice-gas modeling produces a more comprehensive and quantitative characterization. We analyze the large spread in nucleation times and positions relative to the defect for the first nucleated island. We also consider the formation of subsequent islands and the evolution of island growth shapes. The shapes reflect in part our natural adoption of a hexagonal close-packed island structure. As a result, motivation and support for the model is provided by scanning tunneling microscopy observations of the formation of intercalated metal islands in highly-ordered pyrolytic graphite at higher temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗