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Model Assessment Wizard (MAW)

SAND2026-18710O The Model Assessment Wizard (MAW) is a tool for evaluating ontologies and provides users with a comprehensive workbench for analysis. MAW features sub-modules for visualization, alignment, Shapes Constraint Language (SHACL) and Web Ontology Language (OWL) constraints, and simplification. Users can upload data, identify missing information, visualize ontologies, and update constraints. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Murdock, Jaimie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗

Applying Compression-Based Metrics to Seismic Data in Support of Global Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

The analysis of seismic data for evidence of possible nuclear explosion testing is a critical global security mission that relies heavily on human expertise to identify and mark seismic signals embedded in background noise. To assist analysts in making these determinations, we adapted two compression distance metrics for use with seismic data. First, we demonstrated that the Normalized Compression Distance (NCD) metric can be adapted for use with waveform data and can identify the arrival times of seismic signals. Then we tested an approximation for the NCD called Sliding Information Distance (SLID), which can be computed much faster than NCD. We assessed the accuracy of the SLID output by comparing it to both the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the judgments of expert seismic analysts. Our results indicate that SLID effectively identifies arrival times and provides analysts with useful information that can aid their analysis process.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

SCIFLI HORIS Windowpane Optical Analysis

This NASA Technical Memorandum summarizes windowpane optical analyses for the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification and Security Regolith Explorer) mission [1] supported by the SCIFLI (Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery) team [2] at NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC). The SCIFLI team led a NASA multi-center team in characterization of fused silica (FS) and anti-reflective coated (AR-coated) sapphire materials for use as aircraft windowpanes. These materials were needed for the Hypervelocity OSIRIS-REx Reentry Imaging & Spectroscopy (HORIS) mission and were tested to generate performance parameters relevant to the flight environment. Some of the assessed parameters included optical quality, transmittance, reflectance, color balance, birefringence, transmitted wavefront error, wedge, and haziness of the windows. In order to evaluate the material characteristics in a uniform manner, several criteria were held constant. For example, the physical dimensions of the test articles were held constant (i.e., 17-inch diameter aircraft windowpane and 2-inch diameter witness samples). In this way, the comparison of test results from one material specimen to another was invariant with regard to the manner in which the tests were conducted. This also reduced the variability in how the data were reported. As a result, the results shown in this report, including test data generated by NASA can be used for windowpane material evaluation and future material design trades. Window designers can use the data and the testing method along with the testing matrices to efficiently match material performance to their design and mission objectives and requirements. Standardized testing methodologies and data reduction procedures are described in this report. Unless otherwise noted in the data itself, all the windowpane materials were tested in order to characterize their performance for the HORIS mission. One appendix has been included in this report. These include detailed wavefront interferograms of transmitted wavefront error and optical wedge used in the generation of aggregated material performance.

SCIFLI↗

Openet: Applications of Satellite-Based Evapotranspiration Data for Water Resources Management in the Western United States

Advancing water security in overallocated river basins globally requires consistent and reproducible information on consumptive use of water that can anchor the development of data-driven solutions to the challenge of balancing water supply and demand. OpenET is a fully automated system for field-scale (30 m), satellite-based mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) at daily, monthly and annual timesteps. OpenET currently provides spatially contiguous data throughout the 23 westernmost states in the continental US, and includes both current information as well as multi-year timeseries of ET. The OpenET consortium has implemented an ensemble of satellite-based ET models (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, PT-JPL, geeSEBAL, SIMS and SSEBop) on Google Earth Engine, which provides a shared computing platform for collaboration on processing of data from Landsat and other satellites, land cover and meteorological inputs, leading to increased consistency and accuracy across the ensemble of models. Earth Engine also facilitates hosting and distribution of data via open data collections and an application programming interface. We provide updates on the OpenET framework, open data services and data access tools, approach to geographic expansion, recent accuracy assessments, and describe how a user-driven design approach has facilitated successful applications of OpenET data for a wide range of water resource management activities. Applications to date include: use of ET data to improve quantification of ET and consumptive use in Oregon, Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin; streamlining of water use reporting requirements in the California Delta; support for calculation of water budgets for the implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in California; and integration into decision support tools for irrigation management. The use cases demonstrate how satellite-derived ET data that are easily accessed and seen as broadly accepted can accelerate adoption of innovative water management practices at scale, and support advances in the sustainability of water supplies. Uptake and use of data by the OpenET science community has also led to advances in our understanding of the impacts of landcover change, irrigation intensification and wildfire events on hydrology and the water security.

Applications↗

Learning Management System User Requirements for the National Nuclear Security Administration's International Nuclear Safeguards Engagement Program

The National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) International Nuclear Safeguards Engagement Program (INSEP) is considering investing in new tools that would allow the program to support its partner states from a distance. At the same time, the program is considering approaches that would allow several organizations, including NNSA, IAEA, national laboratories and contractor staff, to collaborate in the development and maintenance of instructional content. Software systems known as Learning Management Systems (LMSs) might represent a mechanism through which INSEP could accomplish these goals (collaborative development and remote support). To assess the usefulness of an LMS, INSEP has specified its needs for delivering online training and compared those needs to the capability of a range of LMSs. This comparison will allow INSEP to determine whether an LMS would be a useful tool and may set the stage for a "make-buy" decision in the future. The study team concluded that INSEP's content development and delivery needs align well with the capabilities of the leading LMSs on the market today and that that INSEP performance requirements allow for a customized approach using existing training portals that are already available to NNSA. Additional work would be required to specify the desired processes for developing online training and outreach materials, structuring the databases, specifying the data that should be collected, and detailing the desired system reports and documentation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

2020 Annual Site Environmental Report for Sandia National Laboratories, Tonopah Test Range, Nevada, and Kaua'i Test Facility, Hawai'i

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Sandia Field Office administers the contract and oversees contractor operations at Sandia National Laboratories, Tonopah Test Range (SNL/TTR) in Nevada and Sandia National Laboratories, Kaua‘i Test Facility (SNL/KTF) in Hawai‘i. Activities at SNL/TTR are conducted in support of U.S. Department of Energy weapons programs and have operated at the site since 1957. SNL/KTF has operated as a rocket preparation launching and tracking facility since 1962. The U.S. Department of Energy and its management and operating contractor are committed to safeguarding the environment, assessing sustainability practices, and ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented in this Annual Site Environmental Report. This report summarizes the environmental protection, restoration, and monitoring programs in place at SNL/TTR and SNL/KTF during calendar year 2020. Environmental topics include air quality, ecology, environmental restoration, oil storage, site sustainability, terrestrial surveillance, waste management, water quality, and implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act. This report is prepared in accordance with and as required by DOE O 231.1B, Admin Change 1, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting , and has been approved for public distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Optics of Deterrence: How Science Assures the Nuclear Stockpile's Reliability In Lieu of Testing

When designing a product intended to perform a certain function and satisfy some set of criteria, the standard engineering method to assess its ability to perform is to test it. This nearly universal concept works consistently, assuring proper function and generally avoiding or mitigating the consequence of failure to within acceptable limits. What would happen if the product developers were told that they must continue to certify and validate the performance without testing it, that the landscape in which the product must serve its purpose is constantly evolving, and that the product in question is the United States’ nuclear weapons stockpile? This is the position the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) finds itself in; the reliability of the stockpile must be verified without actually testing it to see if it works as intended.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Using Machine Learning to Identify Optimum Prospects for Offshore Geologic CO 2 Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in the Gulf of Mexico

The SECARB Offshore Partnership is a government-industry partnership focused on assembling the knowledge base required for secure, long-term, large-scale CO 2 subsea storage in saline formations and mature oil reservoirs. The SECARB Offshore Partnership is evaluating potential storage opportunities in the Central and Eastern planning areas of the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of Mexico. The evaluation focuses on active and depleted oil and gas fields and potentially associated CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR), as well as, deep saline storage resources. As part of Subtask 3.0 (Offshore Storage Resources Characterization) and Subtask 4.0 (Risk Assessment, Simulation, and Modeling), Oklahoma State University (OSU) is developing a machine learning system that employs the SAS Institute’s Viya platform with visual data mining and machine learning to identify and characterize optimum prospects for enhanced oil recovery and stacked storage in saline reservoirs. This report summarizes this effort to date and discusses the many variables that can be used to characterize these storage objectives, as well as, the design vision of the Viya machine learning system.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Satellite Sensor Requirements for Monitoring Essential Biodiversity Variables of Coastal Ecosystems

The biodiversity and high productivity of coastal terrestrial and aquatic habitats are the foundation for important benefits to human societies around the world. These globally distributed habitats need frequent and broad systematic assessments, but field surveys only cover a small fraction of these areas. Satellite-based sensors can repeatedly record the visible and near-infrared reflectance spectra that contain the absorption, scattering, and fluorescence signatures of functional phytoplankton groups, colored dissolved matter, and particulate matter near the surface ocean, and of biologically structured habitats (floating and emergent vegetation, benthic habitats like coral, seagrass, and algae). These measures can be incorporated into Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), including the distribution, abundance, and traits of groups of species populations, and used to evaluate habitat fragmentation. However, current and planned satellites are not designed to observe the EBVs that change rapidly with extreme tides, salinity, temperatures, storms, pollution, or physical habitat destruction over scales relevant to human activity. Making these observations requires a new generation of satellite sensors able to sample with these combined characteristics: (1) spatial resolution on the order of 30 to 100-m pixels or smaller; (2) spectral resolution on the order of 5 nm in the visible and 10 nm in the short-wave infrared spectrum (or at least two or more bands at 1,030, 1,240, 1,630, 2,125, and/or 2,260 nm) for atmospheric correction and aquatic and vegetation assessments; (3) radiometric quality with signal to noise ratios (SNR) above 800 (relative to signal levels typical of the open ocean), 14-bit digitization, absolute radiometric calibration less than 2%, relative calibration of 0.2%, polarization sensitivity less than 1%, high radiometric stability and linearity, and operations designed to minimize sunglint; and (4) temporal resolution of hours to days. We refer to these combined specifications as H4 imaging. Enabling H4 imaging is vital for the conservation and management of global biodiversity and ecosystem services, including food provisioning and water security. An agile satellite in a 3-d repeat low-Earth orbit could sample 30-km swath images of several hundred coastal habitats daily. Nine H4 satellites would provide weekly coverage of global coastal zones. Such satellite constellations are now feasible and are used in various applications.

aquatic↗

Composition of Organics on Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Context: The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission detected an infrared absorption at 3.4μm on near-Earth asteroid(101955) Bennu. This absorption is indicative of carbon species, including organics, on the sur-face. Aims: We aim to describe the composition of the organic matter on Bennu by investigating the spectral features in detail. Methods: We use a curated set of spectra acquired by the OSIRIS-REx Visible and InfraRed Spectrometer (OVIRS) that have features near 3.4μm (3.2 to 3.6μm) attributed to organics. We assess the shapes and strengths of these absorptions in the context of laboratory spectra of extraterrestrial organics and analogs. Results: We find spectral evidence of aromatic and aliphatic CH bonds. The absorptions are broadly consistent in shape and depth with those associated with insoluble organic matter in meteorites. Given the thermal and space weathering environments on Bennu, it is likely that the organics have not been exposed for long enough to substantially decrease the H/C and destroy all aliphatic molecules.

minor planets↗

Summer 2024 INL Intern Poster Session Submission - Brian Schumitz

This LRS submission is my poster for the INL Intern Poster Session, Summer 2024. Abstract: The Software Engineering and Cybersecurity Lab (SECL) at Montana State University has developed PIQUE, a system for evaluating software quality. PIQUE's adaptability allows for language-specific static-analysis operations, including a model for assessing cloud microservice ecosystems. These ecosystems often rely on Docker for efficient deployment and management of containerized services. Our research focuses on evaluating the network quality within these microservice ecosystems. To automate this process, we're utilizing Snort, an open-source intrusion detection system renowned for its ability to detect and log network traffic. By leveraging Snort's customizable rules, we aim to construct comprehensive testing methods for measuring and quantifying the network quality based on traffic between Docker containers. This research aims to enhance the overall security and reliability of cloud microservice ecosystems by providing automated and robust quality evaluation mechanisms, ultimately contributing to the advancement of software engineering practices in these environments

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Imagery Integration Team

The Human Exploration Science Office (KX) provides leadership for NASA's Imagery Integration (Integration 2) Team, an affiliation of experts in the use of engineering-class imagery intended to monitor the performance of launch vehicles and crewed spacecraft in flight. Typical engineering imagery assessments include studying and characterizing the liftoff and ascent debris environments; launch vehicle and propulsion element performance; in-flight activities; and entry, landing, and recovery operations. Integration 2 support has been provided not only for U.S. Government spaceflight (e.g., Space Shuttle, Ares I-X) but also for commercial launch providers, such as Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) and Orbital Sciences Corporation, servicing the International Space Station. The NASA Integration 2 Team is composed of imagery integration specialists from JSC, the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), and the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), who have access to a vast pool of experience and capabilities related to program integration, deployment and management of imagery assets, imagery data management, and photogrammetric analysis. The Integration 2 team is currently providing integration services to commercial demonstration flights, Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), and the Space Launch System (SLS)-based Exploration Missions (EM)-1 and EM-2. EM-2 will be the first attempt to fly a piloted mission with the Orion spacecraft. The Integration 2 Team provides the customer (both commercial and Government) with access to a wide array of imagery options - ground-based, airborne, seaborne, or vehicle-based - that are available through the Government and commercial vendors. The team guides the customer in assembling the appropriate complement of imagery acquisition assets at the customer's facilities, minimizing costs associated with market research and the risk of purchasing inadequate assets. The NASA Integration 2 capability simplifies the process of securing one-of-a-kind imagery assets and skill sets, such as ground-based fixed and tracking cameras, crew-in the-loop imaging applications, and the integration of custom or commercial-off-the-shelf sensors onboard spacecraft. For spaceflight applications, the Integration 2 Team leverages modeling, analytical, and scientific resources along with decades of experience and lessons learned to assist the customer in optimizing engineering imagery acquisition and management schemes for any phase of flight - launch, ascent, on-orbit, descent, and landing. The Integration 2 Team guides the customer in using NASA's world-class imagery analysis teams, which specialize in overcoming inherent challenges associated with spaceflight imagery sets. Precision motion tracking, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry, image stabilization, 3D modeling of imagery data, lighting assessment, and vehicle fiducial marking assessments are available. During a mission or test, the Integration 2 Team provides oversight of imagery operations to verify fulfillment of imagery requirements. The team oversees the collection, screening, and analysis of imagery to build a set of imagery findings. It integrates and corroborates the imagery findings with other mission data sets, generating executive summaries to support time-critical mission decisions.

Calhoun, Tracy↗

Developing a Community of Practice for Applied Uses of Future PACE Data to Address Marine Food Security Challenges

External interaction:The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will include a hyperspectral imaging radiometer to advance ecosystem monitoring beyond heritage retrievals of the concentration of surface chlorophyll and other traditional ocean color variables, offering potential for novel science and applications. PACE is the first NASA ocean color mission to occur under the agency's new and evolving effort to directly engage practical end users prior to satellite launch to increase adoption of this freely available data toward societal challenges. Here we describe early efforts to engage a community of practice around marine food-related resource management, business decisions, and policy analysis. Obviously one satellite cannot meet diverse end user needs at all scales and locations, but understanding downstream needs helps in the assessment of information gaps and planning how to optimize the unique strengths of PACE data in combination with the strengths of other satellite retrievals, in situ measurements, and models. Higher spectral resolution data from PACE can be fused with information from satellites with higher spatial or temporal resolution, plus other information, to enable identification and tracking of new marine biological indicators to guide sustainable management. Accounting for the needs of applied researchers as well as non-traditional users of satellite data early in the PACE mission process will ultimately serve to broaden the base of informed users and facilitate faster adoption of the most advanced science and technology toward the challenge of mitigating food insecurity.

Schollaert Uz, Stephanie↗

Update to the Phase II Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102, Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This report is an update to the Phase II Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada (NNSA/NSO, 2009) activities resulting from data collection and analysis conducted between 2009 and 2019. This report contains two sections: (1) a summary of how the new data have informed the updated approach to complete the characterization activities under the corrective action investigation (CAI), and (2) a table documenting the specific activities identified in the CAIP with a status and expected outcome of each activity (see Table A-1 in Appendix A). As stated in Sections 1.5 and 1.5.1 of the CAIP, the CAIP was conceptualized to be iterative, with continuous review and assessment of the data, data analysis, and modeling to provide a guide for decisions regarding additional work. This report provides the revised plan, based on an assessment of the data, to complete the characterization activities identified in the CAIP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing the Understanding of Manufacturing Tools for Hardware Security

This project’s goal was to explore new methods and tools to evaluate the focused ion beam (FIB) effect on active electrical devices, which is becoming increasingly challenged by the continual decrease in transistor geometry. Novel hole transfer methods leveraging FIB patterning were demonstrated utilizing selective area atomic layer deposition (ALD) and metal assisted chemical etching. A FIB damage electrical tester device was fabricated, and the effects of FIB beams were characterized by examining change in performance of damaged transistors. Detailed characterization of end-of-range damage for common FIB ions were correlated to modeling methods. Finally, undamaged and damaged devices were simulated by Charon to begin understanding the FIB effects on active devices. This test platform along with modeling methods give a powerful way to assess FIB damage in materials and devices, and with more development can help establish methods to predict FIB damage effects on electrical devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Dynamic Networks Experiments: Virtual Experiments to Quantify Gains in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

We describe an ongoing series of virtual experiments conducted collaboratively by four United States National Laboratories: Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These Dynamic Network Experiments (DNEs) provide an experimental framework to evaluate the potential impact of new research tools on nuclear explosion monitoring. The second DNE (DNE2), completed in 2024, exploited waveform data (seismic, infrasound, and electromagnetic) that was recorded by multi-modal sensors within and near the Nevada National Security Site and synthetic radionuclide signatures over multiple time periods. During the execution of DNE2, we processed and analyzed data through a multi-stage event processing pipeline that ingested raw data, performed quality control, detected signals, built events from these signals, located these events, and characterized the events’ source types and sizes. For each stage and over the entire event processing pipeline, we evaluated performance changes by comparing the performance of new data processing methods, models, and algorithms against a baseline. We also performed an additional execution phase to assess event processing pipeline function, speed, and efficiency against that of an expert analyst, including computational and manual efforts. Finally, we assessed the impact and effort of modern computing infrastructure on the monitoring pipeline. This paper describes key elements of the DNEs, from formulation through execution, as demonstrated in DNE2. The DNEs introduce several novel concepts to quantitatively measure the potential impact of new methods on explosion monitoring, including the collaborative design of multi-modal datasets, performance and logistical metrics, and integrated analyses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗