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NASA NTRS2022

Aggregate Risk Tool for Human Space Flight

This tool utilizes Data fusion capabilities developed from the 2020-2022 Information Fusion (IFDA) IRAD to enhance functionality of a Human Spaceflight (HSF) Aggregate Risk Product developed by the JSC Flight Safety Office. The tool compiles and present risk data from multiple Program and Commercial Provider sources to provide a holistic assessment for Program Managers and Technical Authorities to evaluate residual risk prior to HSF Launches. The aggregation, or coupling of risks from multiple sources (Ex: PRA, variances, anomaly data bases, CRM data, technical review board minutes, Hazard Analysis, etc.) identifies areas of elevated risk in components, systems or mission phases that would otherwise be undetected by non-integrated program risk management tools and possesses. Data is then displayed in an interactive user interface/dashboard that enables users to see potential areas of concern requiring more in-depth analysis.

Patrick M Huckaby↗

NASA NTRS2023

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Quantification of Medical Evacuation Risk for Human Spaceflight in the IMPACT Model

Traditionally, mission planners have used a heuristic and qualitative approach to design medical systems based on prior experience however this approach may result in high variability and implicit bias to design and could put missions and crewmembers at risk. The Informing Mission Planning through Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool is a probabilistic risk assessment tool designed by NASA to model medical risk in long duration missions outside of low earth orbit (LEO). This tool can quantify risk metrics such as risk of crewmember death, loss of crew task time, and the need for medical evacuation to better inform and augment the more traditional approach to medical system design. The risk metric of Return to Definitive Care (RTDC) represents the likelihood of requiring medical evacuation and has been difficult to quantify in a reliable and standardized manner. Initial development of the RTDC metric was constrained due to the complexity of a medical evacuation decision and the lack of prior spaceflight data and this presentation will discuss the review and improvement process used to increase model accuracy and fidelity.

Prashant Parmar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

K A Shair↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations (BLEs) used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the coefficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for spacecraft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar surface assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Equation Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. This paper will expand on the hypervelocity impact (HVI) testing and ballistic limit equation (BLE) definition work that was partially presented at the 2nd International Orbital De-bris (IOC-II) Conference held in Sugar Land, TX in December 2023. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the co-efficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for space-craft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar sur-face assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environ-ment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Mar-shall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRS2024

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗

DOE OSTI2014

Employing the radiological and nuclear risk assessment methods (RNRAM) for assessing radiological and nuclear detection architectures

The United States Department of Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) is charged with implementing domestic nuclear detection efforts to protect the U.S. from radiological and nuclear threats. DNDO is also responsible for coordinating the development of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA). DNDO utilizes a unique risk analysis tool to conduct a holistic risk assessment of the GNDA known as the Radiological and Nuclear Risk Assessment Methods (RNRAM). The capabilities of this tool will be used to support internal DNDO analyses and has also been used for other entities such as the International Atomic Energy Agency. The model uses a probabilistic risk assessment methodology and includes the ability to conduct a risk assessment of the effectiveness of layered architectures in the GNDA against an attack by an intelligent, adaptive adversary. This paper overviews the basic structure, capabilities, and use of RNRAM as used to assess different architectures and how various risk components are calculated through a series of interconnected modules. Also highlighted is flexible structure of RNRAM which can accommodate new modules in order to examine a variety of threat detection architectures and concepts.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Methodology for Dynamic Security Risk Quantification and Optimal Resource Allocation of Security Assets

In this presentation we overview a methodology for dynamic security risk quantification and optimal resource allocation of security assets for high profile venues. This methodology is especially applicable to venues that require security screening operations such as mass transit (e.g., train or airport terminals), critical infrastructure protection (e.g., government buildings), and largescale public events (e.g., concerts or professional sports). The method starts by decomposing the three core components of risk -- threat, vulnerability, and consequence -- into their various subcomponents. For instance, vulnerability can be decomposed into availability, accessibility, organic security, and target hardness and each of these can be evaluated against the potential threats of interest for the given venue. Once evaluated, these subcomponents are rolled back up to compute the specific value for the vulnerability core risk component. Likewise, the same is done for consequence and threat, and then risk is computed as the product of these three components. A key aspect of our methodology is dynamically quantifying risk. That is, we incorporate the ability to uniquely allow the subcomponents and core components, and in turn, risk, to be quantified as a continuous function of time throughout the day, week, month, or year as appropriate.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Qualitative Decision and Risk Assessment Approaches for Managing Nuclear Materials

Qualitative approaches to performing decision analyses and risk assessments have recently been developed at ORNL with the goal of providing simple tools to help manage complex projects that have a variety of drivers, constraints, or both. Many of the DOE’s nuclear materials management projects involve making “keep-or-dispose” decisions for nuclear materials and then developing projects to manage or dispose of the materials. ORNL uses decision analysis tools to identify and rank options for accomplishing nuclear materials management projects, and risk assessment tools to evaluate the preferred option(s) to identify risks and prioritize mitigation actions to reduce risks during implementation. This paper focuses on application of the decision analysis and risk-based planning tool(s) to guide management of projects during the planning and start-up phases when only preliminary project information is likely to be available. Such an analysis seeks to reduce risks, lower costs, and improve chances of project success. Examples showing the use of the tools in nuclear waste management scenarios are provided.

Jubin, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data Requirements for Application of Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis to Evaluate Hurricane Impact to Electrical Infrastructure in Puerto Rico

This paper presents a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis framework that was used to evaluate the hurricane impact to electrical infrastructure in Puerto Rico. PNNL developed a scalable risk-based framework for identifying high-voltage transmission resilience improvements by classifying and prioritizing high-risk power grid contingencies (system failures) under hurricane impact. The risk-based framework is founded on grid outage definitions with their associated probabilities of occurrence from hurricane events, in combination with an impact assessment derived from detailed dynamic cascading failure analysis. This paper focuses on a discussion around data requirements for transmission resilience planning for hurricane events, derived from the development of the risk-based framework and its application to Puerto Rico. This paper launches an important first step in encouraging the engineering community and power system industry to move towards establishing resilience planning as a routine practice. Since actual results for Puerto Rico contain sensitive information, sample simulation results will be used to illustrate the data requirements and risk-based dynamic cascading framework on the Puerto Rico power grid, as well as demonstrate the potential for such a simulation framework. The paper includes a discussion on the lessons learned, importance and need for improved datasets that are not usually considered in traditional power system planning. The paper will also elaborate on how the scalable simulation framework and datasets might be expanded to larger footprints and leveraged for modelling other types of natural disasters.

DCAT, Puerto Rico, hurricane, Power System Stabili↗

DOE OSTI2013

Risk-based Prioritization of Facility Decommissioning and Environmental Restoration Projects in the National Nuclear Legacy Liabilities Program at the Chalk River Laboratory - 13564

Chalk River Laboratory (CRL), located in Ontario Canada, has a large number of remediation projects currently in the Nuclear Legacy Liabilities Program (NLLP), including hundreds of facility decommissioning projects and over one hundred environmental remediation projects, all to be executed over the next 70 years. Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) utilized WorleyParsons to prioritize the NLLP projects at the CRL through a risk-based prioritization and ranking process, using the WorleyParsons Sequencing Unit Prioritization and Estimating Risk Model (SUPERmodel). The prioritization project made use of the SUPERmodel which has been previously used for other large-scale site prioritization and sequencing of facilities at nuclear laboratories in the United States. The process included development and vetting of risk parameter matrices as well as confirmation/validation of project risks. Detailed sensitivity studies were also conducted to understand the impacts that risk parameter weighting and scoring had on prioritization. The repeatable prioritization process yielded an objective, risk-based and technically defendable process for prioritization that gained concurrence from all stakeholders, including Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) who is responsible for the oversight of the NLLP. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Collaborative working is driving progress in hazard and risk reduction delivery at Sellafield - 16387

A new way of working has been adopted at the Sellafield site in the United Kingdom which is delivering benefits in terms of accelerating hazard and risk reduction safely and securely at the site. This new way of working involves a collaborative approach on crucial aspects of the plan of work for Sellafield between: - Sellafield Ltd (the site's management and operations contractor), - The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (the site's owner and Sellafield Ltd's customer), - The Office for Nuclear Regulation (the UK's nuclear safety and security regulator), - The Environment Agency (England's environmental regulator), - The UK Government's Department of Energy and Climate Change, - The UK Government's Shareholder Executive, part of the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills. The new way of working is founded upon fully aligning the individual strategies of each of these six organisations towards the common goal of accelerated risk and hazard reduction and then ensuring good communications so these strategies remain fully aligned. To this end a number of issues were identified by the six organisations which were considered to be slowing the progress of the risk and hazard reduction work, from which a set of 'strategic themes' was developed to facilitate different ways of thinking and so solve these issues. The strategic themes are: - Looking for blockers and how they can be removed, - Avoiding overly complex solutions by utilising the concept of fit for purpose, - The effective use of resources, - Prioritisation arrangements, - Incentivisation, - The appetite for risk, - Avoiding distractions and diversions, - Effective use of communications so that the more effective and efficient ways of working, and the improvements that are generated, are promulgated throughout Sellafield Ltd. These strategic themes have been applied with great effect in a number of areas delivering risk reduction benefits. For example: - The removal of ageing fuel from Sellafield's oldest pond, the Pile Fuel Storage Pond; a significant milestone in the site's hazard and risk reduction agenda. - Implementing an alternative ILW approach. - Managing stocks of Highly Active Liquor (HAL). - 'Re-purposing' existing Waste Management Facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2014

Radiogenic Risk in Normal Tissues of Cancer Patients Receiving Radiotherapy - Paper 64

Because of its effectiveness in causing lethal damage to cancer cells and yielding local tumor control, radiotherapy is an important component of most curative cancer treatments. In radiotherapy, very high doses of radiation are delivered deliberately to patients, with the goal of conforming a prescribed radiation dose to the clinical target and nearby tissues. In this process, radiation absorbed dose damages organs and tissues both from therapeutic radiation within the treatment fields and stray radiation outside the treatment fields. Stray radiation originates either in the treatment unit or in the patient and has no known therapeutic benefit. Over the past decade, our understanding of these exposures and secondary effects has grown immensely. In this presentation, we will discuss the radiogenic risks in normal tissues of cancer patients receiving radiotherapy, with a particular focus on late effects and what is being done to reduce the risks. Long-term epidemiological studies of patients or others who have been exposed to radiation are essential for understanding the relationship between effective dose and the risk of late effects. However, in the case of epidemiological studies for patients exposed to radiation, many of the techniques used to deliver the radiation (and often the chemotherapy used) are obsolete. The results of these studies are further complicated by the direct or synergistic effects of chemotherapy and variations in genetic susceptibility, which are very difficult to take into account or control statistically. This underscores the value of predictive dosimetric studies that rely on risk models and can be done immediately without the need for long-term follow up, for example in silico clinical trials. In this presentation, we will discuss more comprehensively the risks of radiogenic late effects, specifically with regard to cancer patients receiving radiotherapy, including recent epidemiological and predictive dosimetric studies. Methods of reducing these risks will also be presented. (author)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Bird Strike Likelihood to Refine Bird Strike Risk Models

In its most basic form, bird strike risk is comprised of a frequency component that reflects the likelihood of a collision and a severity component that reflects the cost (monetary or otherwise) of the incident. The bird strike risk model currently used by United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Wildlife Services to evaluate the risk posed by individual bird species at airports and establish priorities for management was developed in 2018. The model uses airport-specific data on the number of reported strikes for a species recorded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s National Wildlife Strike Database as a measure of frequency and the species’ relative hazard score as a measure of severity. The model was tested against independent data, found to perform well overall, and is being implemented widely across the United States. However, the model has limitations, including that species known to pose risk to aircraft locally, but not present in the strike record database, are not reflected as a major component of risk. Standard bird survey methodology commonly used at airports (e.g. point counts or transects) potentially can be used to complement wildlife strike records to calculate frequency or relative abundance of species. However, these methods generally focus on airport-wide population estimation and often ignore vital information that contributes to the true likelihood of a strike, such as use of runway protection zones and other critical areas, and spatial and temporal overlap with departing or approaching aircraft. As such, a more detailed understanding of space use by birds across landcovers and population fluctuations across the year is needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of bird strikes at airports. In this manuscript, we will review the extant risk model, including a discussion on its limitations. We then discuss approaches for refining our understanding of strike likelihood and briefly touch on needs for estimating probability of strike severity (cost).

bird strike, aircraft collision, damage by wildlif↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Smart Inverters, Dumb Risk: Taking Control of IBR Security in the Digital Age

This presentation addresses the security challenges posed by Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) in the modern energy landscape. The presentation highlights the vulnerabilities and risks associated with IBRs, including the potential for cyber-attacks, the impact of insecure defaults, and the systemic risks posed by supply chain dependencies. Key topics covered include: 1) The increasing digital transformation in energy systems and the associated security risks. 2) Specific vulnerabilities in IBRs, including weak passwords, hardcoded credentials, and insecure web application interfaces. 3) The implications of persistent connectivity and the strategic risks posed by foreign-manufactured components. 4) The role of regulatory frameworks, such as NERC CIP, in addressing these challenges and the limitations of current oversight. 5) Practical solutions for mitigating risks, including secure design practices, vendor risk assessments, and the importance of strong passwords and role-based access control. The presentation underscores the necessity of a comprehensive, system-of-systems approach to securing IBRs, emphasizing the need for collaboration across various stakeholders, including operators, developers, and regulators, to ensure the resilience and security of the energy grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Existence and Optimality Conditions for Risk-Averse PDE-Constrained Optimization

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in virtually all engineering applications, and, for such problems, it is inadequate to simulate the underlying physics without quantifying the uncertainty in unknown or random inputs, boundary and initial conditions, and modeling assumptions. Here in this paper, we introduce a general framework for analyzing risk-averse optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we postulate conditions on the random variable objective function as well as the PDE solution that guarantee existence of minimizers. Furthermore, we derive optimality conditions and apply our results to the control of an environmental contaminant. Lastly, we introduce a new risk measure, called the conditional entropic risk, that fuses desirable properties from both the conditional value-at-risk and the entropic risk measures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗