SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “reasonable accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging Structured Biological Knowledge for Counterfactual Inference: A Case Study of Viral Pathogenesis

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on exogenous variables, and functional assignments. Specifying such models can be extremely difficult in practice. The process requires substantial domain expertise, and does not scale easily to large systems, multiple systems, or novel system modifications. At the same time, many application domains, such as molecular biology, are rich in structured causal knowledge that is qualitative in nature. This manuscript proposes a general approach for querying a causal knowledge graph with a causal question and converting the qualitative result into a quantitative structural causal model that can learn from data to answer the question. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility, accuracy and versatility of this approach using two case studies in systems biology. The first demonstrates the appropriateness of the underlying assumptions and the accuracy of the results. The second demonstrates the versatility of the approach by querying a knowledge base for the molecular determinants of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced cytokine storm and performing counterfactual inference to predict the causal effect of medical countermeasures for severely ill COVID-19 patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

On principles, methods and recent advances in studies towards a GPS-based control system for geodesy and geodynamics

Although Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) are becoming increasingly important tools for geodynamic studies, their future role may well be fulfilled by using alternative techniques such as those utilizing the signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS). GPS, without the full implementation of the system, already offers a favorable combination of cost and accuracy and has consistently demonstrated the capability to provide high precision densification control in the regional and local areas of the VLBI and SLR networks. This report reviews VLBI and SLR vis-a-vis GPS and outlines the capabilities and limitations of each technique and how their complementary application can be of benefit to geodetic and geodynamic operations. It demonstrates, albeit with a limited data set, that dual-frequency GPS observations and interferometric type analysis techniques make possible the modelling of the GPS orbits for several days with an accuracy of a few meters. The use of VLBI or SLR sites as fiducial stations together with refinements in the orbit determination procedures can greatly reduce the systematic errors in the GPS satellite orbits used to compute the positions of non-fiducial locations. In general, repeatability and comparison with VLBI of the GPS determined locations are of the order of between 2 parts in 10 to the 7th power and 5 parts in 10 to the 8th power for baseline lengths less than 2000 km. This report is mainly a synthesis of problems, assumptions, methods and recent advances in the studies towards the establishment of a GPS-based system for geodesy and geodynamics and is one phase in the continuing effort for the development of such a system. To some, including the author, it seems reasonable to expect within the next few years that more evidence will show GPS to be as a powerful and reliable a tool as mobile VLBI and SLR are today, but largely more economical.

Delikaraoglou, Demitris↗

NASA NTRS1996

Translation and Rotation Trade Off in Human Visual Heading Estimation

We have previously shown that, during simulated curvilinear motion, humans can make reasonably accurate and precise heading judgments from optic flow without either oculomotor or static-depth cues about rotation. We now systematically investigate the effect of varying the parameters of self-motion. We visually simulated 400 ms of self-motion along curved paths (constant rotation and translation rates, fixed retinocentric heading) towards two planes of random dots at 10.3 m and 22.3 m at mid-trial. Retinocentric heading judgments of 4 observers (2 naive) were measured for 12 different combinations of translation (T between 4 and 16 m/s) and rotation (R either 8 or 16 deg/s). In the range tested, heading bias and uncertainty decrease quasilinearly with T/R, but the bias also appears to depend on R. If depth is held constant, the ratio T/R can account for much of the variation in the accuracy and precision of human visual heading estimation, although further experiments are needed to resolve whether absolute rotation rate, total flow rate, or some other factor can account for the observed -2 deg shift between the bias curves.

Stone, Leland S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Well-balanced treatment of gravity in astrophysical fluid dynamics simulations at low Mach numbers

We report accurate simulations of flows in stellar interiors are crucial to improving our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Because the typically slow flows are merely tiny perturbations on top of a close balance between gravity and the pressure gradient, such simulations place heavy demands on numerical hydrodynamics schemes. We demonstrate how discretization errors on grids of reasonable size can lead to spurious flows orders of magnitude faster than the physical flow. Well-balanced numerical schemes can deal with this problem. Three such schemes were applied in the implicit, finite-volume SEVEN-LEAGUE HYDRO code in combination with a low-Mach-number numerical flux function. We compare how the schemes perform in four numerical experiments addressing some of the challenges imposed by typical problems in stellar hydrodynamics. We find that the α-β and deviation well-balancing methods can accurately maintain hydrostatic solutions provided that gravitational potential energy is included in the total energy balance. They accurately conserve minuscule entropy fluctuations advected in an isentropic stratification, which enables the methods to reproduce the expected scaling of convective flow speed with the heating rate. The deviation method also substantially increases accuracy of maintaining stationary orbital motions in a Keplerian disk on long timescales. The Cargo–LeRoux method fares substantially worse in our tests, although its simplicity may still offer some merits in certain situations. Overall, we find the well-balanced treatment of gravity in combination with low Mach number flux functions essential to reproducing correct physical solutions to challenging stellar slow-flow problems on affordable collocated grids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Extensive Characterization of Aerosol Optical Properties and Chemical Component Concentrations: Application of the GRASP/Component Approach to Long-term AERONET Measurements

A recently developed GRASP/Component approach (GRASP: Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties) was applied to AERONET (Aeronet Robotic Network) sun photometer measurements in this study. Unlike traditional aerosol component retrieval, this approach allows the inference of some information about aerosol composition directly from measured radiance, rather than indirectly through the inversion of optical parameters, and has been integrated into the GRASP algorithm. The newly developed GRASP/Component approach was applied to 13 AERONET sites for different aerosol types under the assumption of aerosol internal mixing rules to analyze the characteristics of aerosol components and their distribution patterns. The results indicate that the retrievals can characterize well the spatial and temporal variability of the component concentration for different aerosol types. A reasonable agreement between GRASP BC retrievals and MERRA-2 BC products is found for all different aerosol types. In addition, the relationships between aerosol component content and aerosol optical parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine-mode fraction (FMF), absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), scattering Ångström exponent (SAE), and single scattering albedo (SSA) are also analyzed for indirect verifying the reliability of the component retrieval. It was demonstrated the GRASP/Component optical retrievals are in good agreement with AERONET standard products [e.g., correlation coefficient (R) of 0.93–1.0 for AOD, fine-mode AOD (AODF), coarse-mode AOD (AODC) and Ångström exponent (AE); R = ~ 0.8 for absorption AOD (AAOD) and SSA; RMSE (root mean square error) < 0.03 for AOD, AODF, AODC, AAOD and SSA]. Thus, it is demonstrated the GRASP/Component approach can provide aerosol optical products with comparable accuracy as the AERONET standard products from the ground-based sun photometer measurements as well as some additional important inside on aerosol composition.

Xindan Zhang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the accuracy of compound formation energies with quantum Monte Carlo

Accurately predicting the formation energy of a compound, which describes its thermodynamic stability, is a key challenge in materials physics. Here, we employ a many-body quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) with single-reference trial functions to compute the formation energy of two electronically disparate compounds, the intermetallic VPt2 and the semiconductor CuI, for which standard density functional theory (DFT) predictions using both the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) density functional approximations deviate markedly from available experimental values. For VPt2, we find an agreement between QMC, SCAN, and PBE0 estimates, which therefore remain in disagreement with the much less exothermic experimental value. For CuI, the QMC result agrees with neither SCAN nor PBE pointing towards DFT exchange-correlation biases, likely related to the localized Cu 3d electrons. Compared to the behavior of some density functional approximations within DFT, spin-averaged QMC exhibits a smaller but still appreciable deviation when compared to experiment. The QMC result is slightly improved by incorporating spin-orbit corrections for CuI and solid I 2 , so that experiment and theory are brought into imperfect but reasonable agreement within about 120 meV/atom.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual refrigerant charge sensor for variable-speed heat pumps based on feature selection

The refrigerant charge level in heat pump systems significantly impacts their energy efficiency. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been comprehensively investigated and well-established due to its lower cost compared to physical sensors. However, the previous VRC research often relied on expert judgment and physical reasoning for their variable selection, which can potentially select redundant (or highly correlated) or insignificant features, and it is also primarily focused on single-speed systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a VRC algorithm for variable-speed heat pumps that selects features through a rigorous feature selection method in combination with physical insights. We also propose a piecewise linear model structure segmented by subcooling temperature to accurately predict charge levels, particularly when subcooling temperatures are substantially low. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using experimental data of a residential R410A heat pump, and the performance was compared with two baseline VRC algorithms. The results are: (1) The proposed algorithm outperforms for the case with subcooling temperature less than 1 °C. (2) The proposed algorithm achieves a tested mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.23%, and improves the overall accuracy for cooling conditions by approximately 60%, compared with the two baseline algorithms. (3) The proposed algorithm uses two fewer features and improves the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions by 68.0%, compared with baseline algorithm 2. These improvements enhance prediction accuracy and prevent overfitting, providing a more reliable refrigerant charge level prediction and helping improve the heat pump energy efficiency.

Liang, Chenjiyu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parameterizing empirical interatomic potentials for predicting thermophysical properties via an irreducible derivative approach: the case of ThO 2 and UO 2

The accuracy of classical physical property predictions using molecular dynamics simulations is determined by the quality of the interatomic potentials. Here we introduce a training approach for empirical interatomic potentials (EIPs) which is well suited for capturing phonons and phonon-related properties. Our approach is based on direct comparisons of the second- and third-order irreducible derivatives (IDs) between an EIP and the Born–Oppenheimer potential within density functional theory (DFT) calculations. IDs fully exploit space group symmetry and allow for training without redundant information. We demonstrate the fidelity of our approach in the context of ThO 2 and UO 2 , where we optimize parameters of an embedded-atom method potential in addition to core–shell interactions. Our EIPs provide thermophysical properties in good agreement with DFT and outperform widely utilized EIPs for phonon dispersion and thermal conductivity predictions. Reasonable estimates of thermal expansion and formation energies of Frenkel pairs are also obtained.

empirical interatomic potential↗

NASA NTRS1994

A preliminary evaluation of ocean topography from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission

We have analyzed 50 ten-day cycles of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data to evaluate the ocean dynamic topography and its temporal variations. We have employed data from both the U.S. and French altimeters along with the NASA precision orbits in this analysis. Errors in the diurnal and semidiurnal components of the Cartwright-Ray tide model have been significantly reduced using a correction developed from a combination of JGM-2 and OSU91A was employed, as well as a geoid model based solely on OSU91A. The long wavelengths of the comparisons to historical data, although geoid error still corrupts the dynamic topography for wavelengths shorter than 2500 km. The root mean square (RMS) variability is similar to previous results from Geosat, with bakground 'noise' approaching 3 cm RMS. The computed annual and semiannual variations are also similar to previous Geosat results, although the hemispheric distribution of the annual heating cycle is much better presented in the T/P results. They also compare reasonably well with the Levitus hydrographic compilation in the northern hemisphere, although the T/P variations generally have larger amplitudes. Ten-day average maps of variations in sea level compare well with simulations measurements at ocean tide gauges, with RMS differences of less than 4 cm and correlations greater than 0.6 for most of the island gauges. Time-longitude plots of these sea level variations at different latitudes in the Pacific clearly show the presence of equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby waves, with the wave speeds agreeing well with theoretical and observed values. Measurement of variations in global sea level over cycles 2-51 have an RMS variability of 6.3 mm and a rate of change of -3.5 +/- 8 mm/yr, the uncertainty primarily due to insufficient averaging of the interannual and periodic sea level variations. These results show that the accuracy of the T/P measurements of sea level has dramatically improved over previous missions, with estimated time variable errors of 4 cm or less. Although geographically correlated orbit errors have also been reduced to the few centimeter level, further improvement in determinations of the mean dynamic topography will be difficult to obtain until a more accurate model of the marine geoid is available.

Nerem, R. S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Study of Hydrology and Icemelt in Three Nepal River Basins Using the Glacio-Hydrological Degree-Day Model (GDM) and Observations From the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)

An assessment of the water supply and its seasonal and annual changes over the century in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is of increasing interest due to its potential impact on one-sixth of the global population. In order to understand the changing hydrology and snow and ice melt, we used remotely sensed Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) observations of glacier melt (GM) and a distributed and gridded Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) in three river basins: Tamor, Trishuli and Marsyangdi. The GDM-estimated contribution of snowmelt, icemelt, rainfall and baseflow in river flows is found to be most accurate in the Trishuli River basin, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between the estimated and observed discharges of 0.81 and volume differences of -0.5%, and reasonably accurate in the Tamor River basin, with NSE of 0.69 and volume difference of -7.51%. Similarly, NSE of 0.81 and volume difference of 4.64% in Marsyangdi River basin. We find strong similarities in the timing of glacier melting using the GDM and from observations from the ASCAT GM, determining the seasonal start of glacier melting to within 6 days on average. In all basins ASCAT GM observes melting at higher elevations relative to GDM, average of 5,328 m a.s.l. Systematic differences in glacier melting area determined by modeling and satellite observations indicate ASCAT may have suboptimal resolution, view geometry and/or polarimetry for delineating glacier melting at the process-scale in complex topography, especially in the ablation zone. This is the first step in examining the remote sensing products that could potentially be incorporated into hydrologic models to increase the accuracy of the hydrologic flow as well as the ability to estimate river discharge in other basins with limited data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Snow Depth from AMSR-2 Using Multispectral Satellite Data in an Artificial Neural Network

By using diffusion theory and Monte Carlo lidar radiative transfer simulations, Hu et al. (2022b) has derived snow depth from the first-, second- and third-order moments of the lidar backscattering pathlength distribution. Lu et al. (2022) calculated the snow depth by applying the methods to the satellite ICESat-2 lidar measurements over the Arctic sea ice, as well as land surfaces of Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm, employing several channels from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-2) and the humidity vertical profiles from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System for Instrument Teams (GEOS-IT) product, is trained to determine snow depth identified by time and geolocation matched 2019 ICESat-2 snow-depth data during winter months over the Arctic sea ice. The trained ANN snow-depth was applied to 2018 AMSR-2 clear pixel data, although the algorithms perform reasonably well in thinner clouds. The validation data (different from the training set) of ANN snow depth from AMSR-2 showed a good agreement with time matched and co-located snow-depth values from ICESat-2. The bias was near zero, with mean absolute error (MAE) 0.05 cm and a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) 0.08 cm. Prior applying the trained ANN snow depth to AMSR-2 data, a cloud screening algorithm was developed with a similar approach. A separate ANN cloud mask was trained to determine an AMSR-2 pixel is clear or cloudy with time and geolocation matched 2015 CALIOP Vertical Feature Mask (VFM) over Arctic sea ice. The ANN cloud mask from AMSR-2 under-estimated cloud fraction by 3-6% compared to CALIOP . The additional research is needed to conclusively evaluate the ANN cloud mask accuracy. Finally, this paper will lay the foundation for a sustained long-term snowfall and snow-storm monitoring system. The future Cloud Aerosol LIdar for Global scale Observations of the ocean-Land Atmosphere system (CALIGOLA) mission will provide a means to calculate snow depth from the lidar backscattering pathlength distribution, benefiting from the UV, visible and infrared pulses. With the calculated snow depth as the truth one could develop a machine learning algorithm, as it was done in this paper, using a passive microwave instrument available at that time to generate a wide range of snow depth data, covering extensive spatial areas in the cross-orbit direction.

Neural Network↗

NASA NTRS2013

Requirements for a Moderate-Resolution Infrared Imaging Sounder (MIRIS)

The high cost of imaging and sounding from space warrants exploration of new methods for obtaining the required information, including changing the spectral band sets, employing new technologies and merging instruments. In some cases we must consider relaxation of the current capability. In others, we expect higher performance. In general our goal is to meet the VIIRS and CrIS requirements while providing the enhanced next generation capabilities: 1) Hyperspectral Imaging in the Vis/NIR bands, 2) High Spatial Resolution Sounding in the Infrared bands. The former will improve the accuracy of ocean color products, aerosols and water vapor, surface vegetation and geology. The latter will enable the high-impact achieved by the current suite of hyperspectral infrared sounders to be achieved by the next generation high resolution forecast models. We examine the spectral, spatial and radiometric requirements for a next generation system and technologies that can be applied from the available inventory within government and industry. A two-band grating spectrometer instrument called the Moderate-resolution Infrared Imaging Sounder (MIRIS) is conceived that, when used with the planned NASA PACE Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) will meet the vast majority of CrIS and VIIRS requirements in the all bands and provide the next generation capabilities desired. MIRIS resource requirements are modest and the Technology Readiness Level is high leading to the expectation that the cost and risk of MIRIS will be reasonable.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)↗

NASA NTRS1995

Radiometric correction of scatterometric wind measurements

Use of a spaceborne scatterometer to determine the ocean-surface wind vector requires accurate measurement of radar backscatter from ocean. Such measurements are hindered by the effect of attenuation in the precipitating regions over sea. The attenuation can be estimated reasonably well with the knowledge of brightness temperatures observed by a microwave radiometer. The NASA SeaWinds scatterometer is to be flown on the Japanese ADEOS2. The AMSR multi-frequency radiometer on ADEOS2 will be used to correct errors due to attenuation in the SeaWinds scatterometer measurements. Here we investigate the errors in the attenuation corrections. Errors would be quite small if the radiometer and scatterometer footprints were identical and filled with uniform rain. However, the footprints are not identical, and because of their size one cannot expect uniform rain across each cell. Simulations were performed with the SeaWinds scatterometer (13.4 GHz) and AMSR (18.7 GHz) footprints with gradients of attenuation. The study shows that the resulting wind speed errors after correction (using the radiometer) are small for most cases. However, variations in the degree of overlap between the radiometer and scatterometer footprints affect the accuracy of the wind speed measurements.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Temporal Large-Eddy Simulation

In 1999, Stolz and Adams unveiled a subgrid-scale model for LES based upon approximately inverting (defiltering) the spatial grid-filter operator and termed .the approximate deconvolution model (ADM). Subsequently, the utility and accuracy of the ADM were demonstrated in a posteriori analyses of flows as diverse as incompressible plane-channel flow and supersonic compression-ramp flow. In a prelude to the current paper, a parameterized temporal ADM (TADM) was developed and demonstrated in both a priori and a posteriori analyses for forced, viscous Burger's flow. The development of a time-filtered variant of the ADM was motivated-primarily by the desire for a unifying theoretical and computational context to encompass direct numerical simulation (DNS), large-eddy simulation (LES), and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes simulation (RANS). The resultant methodology was termed temporal LES (TLES). To permit exploration of the parameter space, however, previous analyses of the TADM were restricted to Burger's flow, and it has remained to demonstrate the TADM and TLES methodology for three-dimensional flow. For several reasons, plane-channel flow presents an ideal test case for the TADM. Among these reasons, channel flow is anisotropic, yet it lends itself to highly efficient and accurate spectral numerical methods. Moreover, channel-flow has been investigated extensively by DNS, and a highly accurate data base of Moser et.al. exists. In the present paper, we develop a fully anisotropic TADM model and demonstrate its utility in simulating incompressible plane-channel flow at nominal values of Re(sub tau) = 180 and Re(sub tau) = 590 by the TLES method. The TADM model is shown to perform nearly as well as the ADM at equivalent resolution, thereby establishing TLES as a viable alternative to LES. Moreover, as the current model is suboptimal is some respects, there is considerable room to improve TLES.

Pruett, C. D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Long-Term Trend Simulation of OH Through the Synergy of Model Simulations and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 and HCHO Retrievals

During the last few years, tremendous progress has been made to develop an efficient parameterization module using agile machine learning techniques. The aim of this module is to provide dynamic response of the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) to its major drivers, including trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorology. This module, named ECCOH (pronounced “echo”) and implemented in NASA’s GEOS-5 global model, offers an unrealized opportunity to unravel the convoluted response of OH to its underlying drivers while approaching the accuracy of full-chemistry without incurring excessive computational costs, making it suitable for climate models. However, the accurate representation of OH in ECCOH poses challenges due to the lack of representation of some of its critical inputs such as the abundance of NO 2 and HCHO concentrations. As such, we leverage the well-characterized satellite observations of NO2 and HCHO columns from Aura OMI to enhance their representation in ECCOH using an optimal interpolation method for the time period of 2005 - present. We show how the inclusion of OMI information can affect the spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of OH, CO, and CH 4 across the globe. Additionally, we underscore the necessity of obtaining high-fidelity information regarding tropospheric ozone from the southern hemisphere from space, a region currently lacking full verification in models, posing a challenge to get a reasonable amount of chemical sink for CH 4 .

OH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling of a Two-Stage Ocean Current Turbine

The Equinox Ocean Turbines (EQOT) current energy converter has a unique design with power generation in two small-diameter turbines attached to the tips of a large-diameter passive rotor. This configuration offers some key advantages for capturing ocean currents. With no centrally placed generator, almost no reaction torque is required at the nacelle of the main large-diameter rotor, and the small-diameter tip turbine generators operate at a higher speed and lower torque. The physics that determine the performance and loads on the turbine are also unique. The interactions of the flow field between the two stages and the general architecture of the system cannot be captured with traditional mid-fidelity modeling tools. For design iterations and large sets of load cases, it is important to have mid-fidelity models that can capture the important phenomenon with enough accuracy to identify global trends. This work uses a limited set of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to help inform the selection of and construction of a custom mid-fidelity model. Mid-fidelity modeling approaches were verified by comparing key turbine performance quantities to those found with the CFD model. Hydrodynamic interactions of the two-stage rotor were identified through high-fidelity CFD modeling. This highlighted the impact of the main rotor tip vortex and wake on the secondary rotor apparent inflow. This results in a relative flow rotation and sharp deficit, that change the optimal secondary rotor rotation speed and adds unsteadiness to the blade loading respectively. Multiple mid-fidelity approaches were evaluated for their ability to capture these effects. A simple approximation of the combined-stage performance based on single-stage BEM provides a reasonable rough prediction, especially near the peak TSR values, with some larger discrepancy at higher TSRs. Predicting the combined-stage performance based on single-stage CFD data improves this prediction across the TSR range. Although the combined-stage modeling in OLAF was not successful in this stage of the project, it showed promise as a mid-fidelity method, assuming the parameters can be tuned to account for the significant differences in time and length scales between the main and secondary rotors. This may be addressed through code changes in future work. A significant finding from the OLAF work was the agreement between the vortex core radius values found independently via a parameter space search and via CFD. The technique of using single-stage secondary rotor BEM, with a custom inflow taken from single-stage main rotor CFD or OLAF, provides an efficient method to capture one-way coupled flow interactions. This method provided generally good predictions of the impact of the flow rotation on the secondary rotor but struggled to accurately predict the peaks of the unsteady load progression. Future work could include some superposition of a tuned main rotor trailing edge viscous wake into the custom inflow to better predict this interaction.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS1989

Effect of ephemeris errors on the accuracy of the computation of the tangent point altitude of a solar scanning ray as measured by the SAGE 1 and 2 instruments

An analysis was made of the error in the minimum altitude of a geometric ray from an orbiting spacecraft to the Sun. The sunrise and sunset errors are highly correlated and are opposite in sign. With the ephemeris generated for the SAGE 1 instrument data reduction, these errors can be as large as 200 to 350 meters (1 sigma) after 7 days of orbit propagation. The bulk of this error results from errors in the position of the orbiting spacecraft rather than errors in computing the position of the Sun. These errors, in turn, result from the discontinuities in the ephemeris tapes resulting from the orbital determination process. Data taken from the end of the definitive ephemeris tape are used to generate the predict data for the time interval covered by the next arc of the orbit determination process. The predicted data are then updated by using the tracking data. The growth of these errors is very nearly linear, with a slight nonlinearity caused by the beta angle. An approximate analytic method is given, which predicts the magnitude of the errors and their growth in time with reasonable fidelity.

Buglia, James J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

Schwartz, Stephen E.↗