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At least 955 records · Page 53

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cluster Abundances, Weak Lensing, and Galaxy Clustering

Galaxy clusters provide a unique probe of the late-time cosmic structure and serve as a powerful independent test of the $\Lambda$CDM model. This work presents the first set of cosmological constraints derived with ~16,000 optically selected redMaPPer clusters across nearly 5,000 $\rm{deg}^2$ using DES Year 3 data sets. Our analysis leverages a consistent modeling framework for galaxy cluster cosmology and DES-Y3 joint analyses of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (3x2pt), ensuring direct comparability with the DES-Y3 3x2pt analysis. We obtain constraints of $S_8 = 0.864 \pm 0.035$ and $\Omega_{\rm{m}} = 0.265^{+0.019}_{-0.031}$ from the cluster-based data vector. We find that cluster constraints and 3x2pt constraints are consistent under the $\Lambda$CDM model with a Posterior Predictive Distribution (PPD) value of $0.53$. The consistency between clusters and 3x2pt provides a stringent test of $\Lambda$CDM across different mass and spatial scales. Jointly analyzing clusters with 3x2pt further improves cosmological constraints, yielding $S_8 = 0.811^{+0.022}_{-0.020}$ and $\Omega_{\rm{m}} = 0.294^{+0.022}_{-0.033}$, a $24\%$ improvement in the $\Omega_{\rm{m}}-S_8$ figure-of-merit over 3x2pt alone. Moreover, we find no significant deviation from the Planck CMB constraints with a probability to exceed (PTE) value of $0.6$, significantly reducing previous $S_8$ tension claims. Finally, combining DES 3x2pt, DES clusters, and Planck CMB places an upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses of $\sum m_\nu < 0.26$ eV at 95% confidence under the $\Lambda$CDM model. These results establish optically selected clusters as a key cosmological probe and pave the way for cluster-based analyses in upcoming Stage-IV surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from cluster abundances, weak lensing, and galaxy clustering

Galaxy clusters provide a unique probe of the late-time cosmic structure and serve as a powerful independent test of the Λ⁢CDM model. This work presents the first set of cosmological constraints derived with ∼16,000 optically selected redMaPPer clusters across nearly 5000 deg 2 using DES year 3 datasets. Our analysis leverages a consistent modeling framework for galaxy cluster cosmology and DES-Y3 joint analyses of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (3 × 2⁢pt), ensuring direct comparability with the DES-Y3 3 × 2⁢pt analysis. Here, we obtain constraints of 𝑆 8 = 0.864 ± 0.035 and Ω m = $0.26⁢5^{+0.019}_{−0.031}$ from the cluster-based data vector. We find that cluster constraints and 3 × 2⁢pt constraints are consistent under the Λ⁢CDM model with a posterior predictive distribution (PPD) value of 0.53. The consistency between clusters and 3 × 2⁢pt provides a stringent test of Λ⁢CDM across different mass and spatial scales. Jointly analyzing clusters with 3 × 2⁢pt further improves cosmological constraints, yielding 𝑆 8 = $0.81⁢1^{+0.022}_{−0.020}$ and Ω m = $0.29⁢4^{+0.022}_{−0.033}$, a 24% improvement in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 figure of merit over 3 × 2⁢pt alone. Moreover, we find no significant deviation from the Planck CMB constraints with a probability to exceed (PTE) value of 0.6, significantly reducing previous 𝑆 8 tension claims. Finally, combining DES 3 × 2⁢pt, DES clusters, and Planck CMB places an upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.26 eV at 95% confidence under the Λ⁢CDM model. These results establish optically selected clusters as a key cosmological probe and pave the way for cluster-based analyses in upcoming stage-IV surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman.

Abbott, T. M. C. [NSF’s National Optical-Infrared ↗

Final state radiation from high and ultrahigh energy neutrino interactions

Charged leptons produced by high-energy and ultrahigh-energy neutrinos have a substantial probability of emitting prompt internal bremsstrahlung ν ℓ + N → ℓ + X + γ . This can have important consequences for neutrino detection. We discuss observable consequences at high- and ultrahigh-energy neutrino telescopes and the Large Hadron Collider’s (LHC’s) Forward Physics Facility. Logarithmic enhancements can be substantial (e.g., ∼ 20 % ) when either the charged lepton’s energy or the rest of the cascade is measured. We comment on final state radiation’s impacts on measuring the inelasticity distribution, ν / ν ¯ flux ratio, throughgoing muons, and double-bang signatures for high-energy neutrino observation. Furthermore, for ultrahigh-energy neutrino observation, we find that final state radiation increases the overall detectable energy by as much as 20%, affects flavor measurements, and decreases the energy of both Earth-emergent tau leptons and regenerated tau neutrinos. Many of these have significant impacts on measuring neutrino fluxes and spectra. Finally, for the LHC’s Forward Physics Facility, we find that final state radiation will impact future extractions of strange quark parton distribution functions. Final state radiation should be included in future analyses at neutrino telescopes and the Forward Physics Facility. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An Anomalous Electron Configuration Among 3d Transition Metal Atoms

Physical properties of materials are mainly determined by valence electron configurations, where different valence shells would induce divergent phenomena. In compounds containing Sc 2+ , 3d electron occupancy is expected, same as other transition metal atoms like Ti 3+ . But this situation still awaits experimental verification. In this work, we selected ScS to measure the valence electron density and orbital population of Sc2+ through delicate quantitative convergent-beam electron diffraction. Though the [Ar]3d 1 configuration is confirmed in ionic Sc 2+ , the unintuitive occupation of 4s orbital is concluded with the absence of 3d orbital features around Sc-atom sites and nearly bare population of t2g orbital. It should be the first time to report this special electron configuration in a transition metal compound, in which 4s rather than 3d orbital is preferred. Our findings reveal the distinct behavior of Sc, and probable ways to modulate material properties by controlling electron orbitals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Silica nanocluster binding rate coefficients from molecular dynamics trajectory calculations

Oxide nanoparticle growth from vapor phase precursors occurs in high temperature aerosol reactors first via the formation of nanoclusters, which are nanometer-scale condensed-phase species composed of 10 1 -10 2 atoms. The binding rate for nanoclusters, defined as the rate at which two nanoclusters collide with and stick to one another, is hence of interest in predicting nanoparticle size distribution functions in an aerosol. We have utilized molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory calculations to determine the homogeneous (equal-sized) and heterogeneous (disparate-sized) binding rate coefficients of SiO2 (silica) nanoclusters composed of 18, 144, and 333 atoms. MD trajectory calculations incorporated all-atom models of nanoclusters using a combined Born–Huggins–Mayer-Lennard-Jones potential model, which accounts for both short range interactions and electrostatic interactions. MD calculations were utilized to determine the binding probability as a function of both initial relative velocity and impact parameter; integration of the binding probability across impact parameter and relative velocity space yields the binding rate coefficient. MD trajectory calculations reveal that the most common type of encounters between nanoclusters leading to binding are grazing collisions, i.e. instances where collision would not occur without induced dipole potential influences. The resulting binding rate coefficients are found to be extremely weakly dependent on system temperature, which is in contrast to the use of rate coefficient models which are the product of a hard-sphere collision rate coefficient and a constant enhancement factor (leading to a rate coefficient proportional to the square root of temperature). Enhancement factors defined from MD trajectory calculations fall in the range of 3–9 as system temperature decreases from 1500 K to 300 K. Furthermore, such large values suggest that potential interactions need to be considered when modeling oxide nanocluster growth in the gas phase.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reagent-Triggered Isomerization of Fluxional Cluster Catalyst via Dynamic Coupling

Metallic cluster catalysts have many thermodynamically accessible isomers with diverse active sites and low reaction barriers, and lately a strong hypothesis emerged that the many catalyst states collectively drive the catalysis. Furthermore, it remained a hypothesis that catalyst isomerization is actually kinetically feasible under the current reaction conditions. Using high-temperature dynamics simulations and sampling, a range of orientations, and vibrational energy distributions, we probe how thermal effects and molecular events affect cluster catalyst dynamics. We show that even such a delicate affair as the dissociation or scattering of a methane molecule on the heavy and thus slow Pt 13 cluster triggers substantial isomerization of the catalyst, far beyond thermal at 700 K. A kinetic coupling between the methane activity and cluster catalyst dynamics is observed. In return, the thermal dynamics of the cluster affects the methane reaction and scattering probabilities. Hence, molecular events at the surfaces of fluxional cluster catalysts should facilitate the population of an ensemble of catalyst states under the current reaction conditions, with implications for available active sites, reaction mechanisms, and apparent rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Social network structure and the spread of complex contagions from a population genetics perspective

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals’ affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a “complex contagion”. This non-linearity does not typically appear with physically spreading infections, but instead can emerge when the concept that is spreading is subject to game theoretical considerations (e.g. for choices of strategy or behavior) or psychological effects such as social reinforcement and other forms of peer influence (e.g. for ideas, preferences, or opinions). Here we study how the stochastic dynamics of such complex contagions are affected by the underlying network structure. Motivated by simulations of complex contagions on real social networks, we present a framework for analyzing the statistics of contagions with arbitrary non-linear adoption probabilities based on the mathematical tools of population genetics. The central idea is to use an effective lower-dimensional diffusion process to approximate the statistics of the contagion. This leads to a tradeoff between the effects of ”selection” (microscopic tendencies for an idea to spread or die out), random drift, and network structure. Our framework illustrates intuitively several key properties of complex contagions: stronger community structure and network sparsity can significantly enhance the spread, while broad degree distributions dampen the effect of selection compared to random drift. Finally, we show that some structural features can exhibit critical values that demarcate regimes where global contagions become possible for networks of arbitrary size. Our results draw parallels between the competition of genes in a population and memes in a world of minds and ideas. Our tools provide insight into the spread of information, behaviors, and ideas via social influence, and highlight the role of macroscopic network structure in determining their fate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

UrbanPop: A spatial microsimulation framework for exploring demographic influences on human dynamics

Ensuring the social equity of planning measures in social systems requires an understanding of human dynamics, particularly how individual relationships, activities, and interactions intersect with individual needs. Spatial microsimulation models (SMSMs) support planning for human security goals by representing human dynamics through realistic, georeferenced synthetic populations, that a) provide a complete representation of social systems while b) also protecting individual privacy. In this paper, we present UrbanPop, an open and reproducible SMSM framework for analysis of human dynamics with high spatial, temporal, and demographic resolution. UrbanPop creates synthetic populations of demographically detailed worker and student agents, positioning them first at probable nighttime locations (home), then moving them to probable daytime locations (work/school). Summary aggregations of these populations match the granular detail available at the census block group level in the American Community Survey Summary File (SF), providing realistic approximations of the actual population. UrbanPop users can select particular demographic traits important in their application, resulting in a highly tailored agent population. We first lay out UrbanPop's baseline methodology, including population synthesis, activity modeling, and diagnostics, then demonstrate these capabilities by developing case studies of shifting population distributions and high-risk populations in Knox County, TN during the global COVID-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Electron interference in atomic ionization by two crossing polarized ultrashort pulses

Formation of geometrically regular interference patterns in the photoelectron momentum distributions (PMDs) corresponding to the photoionization of atoms by two single-color, crossing ultrashort pulses is investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that, in contrast to the photoionization by monochromatic pulses, PMDs for the ionization by crossing and co-propagating broadband pulses are essentially different (unless both pulses are linearly polarized), namely, when one pulse is linearly polarized along the propagation direction, ˆk, of the circularly polarized (CP) pulse, then interference maxima (minima) of the ionization probability have the form of three-dimensional single-arm regular spirals which are wound along ˆk. Next, the interference maxima (minima) of the ionization probability by a pair of crossing elliptically polarized pulses have the form of either Newton's rings or two-arm Fermat's spirals, depending on the position of a detection plane. Remarkably, these regular patterns occur only for certain values of the pulse ellipticities, and they become distorted for CP pulses. For both above-mentioned pulse configurations, the features of interference patterns depend on the time delay between pulses, their relative electric field amplitude, and relative carrier-envelope phase. Our predictions, illustrated by the numerical results for the ionization of H and He atoms by two orthogonal pulses, are quite general and we expect them to be valid for the ionization of any randomly oriented atomic or molecular target.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on flood regimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across the Conasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios were simulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) driven by (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and 2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit an increase in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 % annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curves indicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. The assessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of the substations could still be affected in the projected future period. The increase in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the need to account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationally intensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Failure of Electrical Transformers due to Effects of a HEMP Event

Understanding the effect of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the equipment in the United States electrical power grid is important to national security. A present challenge to this understanding is evaluating the vulnerability of transformers to a HEMP. Evaluating vulnerability by direct testing is cost-prohibitive, due to the wide variation in transformers, their high cost, and the large number of tests required to establish vulnerability with confidence. Alternatively, material and component testing can be performed to quantify a model for transformer failure, and the model can be used to assess vulnerability of a wide variety of transformers. This project develops a model of the probability of equipment failure due to effects of a HEMP. Potential failure modes are cataloged, and a model structure is presented which can be quantified by the results of small-scale coupon tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Traceable random numbers from a non-local quantum advantage

The unpredictability of random numbers is fundamental to both digital security and applications that fairly distribute resources. However, existing random number generators have limitations—the generation processes cannot be fully traced, audited and certified to be unpredictable. The algorithmic steps used in pseudorandom number generators are auditable, but they cannot guarantee that their outputs were a priori unpredictable given knowledge of the initial seed. Device-independent quantum random number generators can ensure that the source of randomness was unknown beforehand, but the steps used to extract the randomness are vulnerable to tampering. Here we demonstrate a fully traceable random number generation protocol based on device-independent techniques. Our protocol extracts randomness from unpredictable non-local quantum correlations, and uses distributed intertwined hash chains to cryptographically trace and verify the extraction process. This protocol forms the basis for a public traceable and certifiable quantum randomness beacon that we have launched. Over the first 40 days of operation, we completed the protocol 7,434 out of 7,454 attempts—a success rate of 99.7%. Each time the protocol succeeded, the beacon emitted a pulse of 512 bits of traceable randomness. The bits are certified to be uniform with error multiplied by actual success probability bounded by 2−64. Further, the generation of certifiable and traceable randomness represents a public service that operates with an entanglement-derived advantage over comparable classical approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Benchmark Case for the Grid Survivability Analysis

Among current priorities of the power system analysis is the development of metrics and computational tools for the resilience analysis during catastrophic events. New methods and tools are required for such an analysis and they have to be validated prior application to real systems. However, benchmark problems are not readily available due to the analysis novelty. The current paper presents a case based on the IEEE 14-bus system for this purpose. The grid is simplified to a graph with nodes representing generators, loads, and buses. Power inputs are imported from real-time simulations of the IEEE 14-bus system. Outcomes of all possible combinations of failed elements are presented in terms of probabilities for the grid to survive, partially survive, or fail. Only the power grid's ability to withstand adverse events (survivability) is analyzed. The grid's recoverability, the other part of the resilience analysis, is not considered.

power system↗

Probabilistic evolution of stochastic dynamical systems: A meso-scale perspective

Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features are used to quantify and propagate uncertainties associated with the initial conditions, external excitations, etc. From a probabilistic modeling standing point, two broad classes of methods exist, i.e. macro-scale methods and micro-scale methods. Classically, macro-scale methods such as statistical moments-based strategies are usually too coarse to capture the multi-mode shape or tails of a non-Gaussian distribution. Micro-scale methods such as random samples-based approaches, on the other hand, become computationally very challenging in dealing with high-dimensional stochastic systems. In view of these potential limitations, a meso-scale scheme is proposed here that utilizes a meso-scale statistical structure to describe the dynamical evolution from a probabilistic perspective. The significance of this statistical structure is twofold. First, it can be tailored to any arbitrary random space. Second, it not only maintains the probability evolution around sample trajectories but also requires fewer meso-scale components than the micro-scale samples. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed meso-scale scheme, a set of examples of increasing complexity are provided. Connections to the benchmark stochastic models as conservative and Markov models along with practical implementation guidelines are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Field validation of data-driven BSDF and peak extraction models for light-scattering fabric shades

Shading and daylighting systems affect cooling, heating, and lighting energy use by modulating solar radiation through the building façade. Characterizing shading systems holistically and accurately helps designers and engineers evaluate shading systems to achieve energy and non-energy performance goals. These complex fenestration systems can be modeled using Bidirectional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF), which map incident radiation to hemispherical distributions of outgoing radiation. Data-driven, tabulated BSDFs are derived from interpolated goniophotometer measured data, then sampled during the raytracing calculation. A peak extraction (PE) algorithm was developed to circumvent limits in BSDF angular resolution, where the specular peak is extracted during simulation by evaluating the BSDF in the through direction and surrounding region. The objective of this study was to validate this measurement and modeling workflow using field monitored data from a full scale testbed with eleven installed fabrics of different weaves, openness factors, and colors and assess the accuracy of the workflow under different adaptation and contrast conditions. Test conditions were limited to clear sky conditions with the sun in the field of view. Results showed that, for tensor tree datasets, vertical illuminance, solar luminance (2.5° apex), and daylight glare probability (DGP) were predicted to within a mean bias error (MBE) error of -456 lx (-12.3%), -3.46e5 (-38.4%), and -0.042 (-7.8%) when full PE occurred. With a binary classification of glare/ no glare, DGP was predicted accurately with a true positive rate of 0.98 and true negative rate of 1.0 using tensor tree data and less accurately with Klems BSDF data, particularly for cases of no glare. The workflow may be of insufficient accuracy to distinguish borderline performance between fabrics using the four-point glare scale, particularly under low adaptation, high contrast daylit conditions. Errors were due to reductions in peak shape and intensity across the BSDF interpolation and data reduction workflow. Future work is needed to better preserve measurement fidelity during interpolation and sampling, which in turn will improve PE performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty analysis for VERA problem 2 using the cell-code Condor v2.8.05

Condor is a cell-level neutronic calculation code that applies multi-group collision probabilities with heterogeneous response coupling method within generic geometry configurations. Under the Condor's code continuous development, the incorporation of up-to-date methodologies and state-of-the-art practices in reactor analysis represents a driving force. In this work, the capabilities of Condor v2.8.05 to develop an uncertainty analysis for realistic PWR-kind fuel assemblies are studied. The Total Monte Carlo approach is applied to quantify the impact of fabrication tolerances in the code's results for reactivity and power distributions, by means of randomly sampled input values using the VERA problem 2 as basis. The VERA problem 2 proposes a series of Westinghouse 2D 17 x 17-type fuel lattices, to be calculated reflected at beginning-of-life without Xe. The configurations correspond to a modern PWR. Selected neutronic parameters from Condor runs are thus analyzed in terms of the observed spread as well as the obtained distributions for the randomly perturbed cases, showing the capability of the code to handle the required input data, as well as its ability to provide valuable insights regarding uncertainty quantification.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Quarkonium transport in weakly and strongly coupled plasmas

We report on progress in the nonperturbative understanding of quarkonium dynamics inside a thermal plasma. The time evolution of small-size quarkonium is governed by two-point correlation functions of chromoelectric fields dressed with an adjoint Wilson line, known in this context as generalized gluon distributions (GGDs). The GGDs have been calculated in both weakly and strongly coupled plasmas by using perturbative and holographic methods. Strikingly, the results of our calculations for a strongly coupled plasma indicate that the quarkonium dissociation and recombination rates vanish in the transport descriptions that assume quarkonium undergoes Markovian dynamics. However, this does not imply that the dynamics is trivial. As a starting point to explore the phenomenological consequences of the result at strong coupling, we show a calculation of the Y(1 S ) formation probability in time-dependent perturbation theory. This is a first step towards the development of a transport formalism that includes non-Markovian effects, which, depending on how close the as of yet undetermined nonperturbative QCD result of the GGDs is to the strongly coupled N = 4 SYM result, could very well dominate over the Markovian ones in quark-gluon plasma produced at RHIC and the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗