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At least 955 records · Page 53

Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments

Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large-Eddy Simulation of Flow Over Boeing Gaussian Bump Using Multiagent Reinforcement Learning Wall Model: Preprint

We develop a wall model for large-eddy simulation (LES) that takes into account various pressure-gradient effects using multi-agent reinforcement learning. The model is trained using low-Reynolds-number flow over periodic hills with agents distributed on the wall at various computational grid points. It utilizes a wall eddy-viscosity formulation as the boundary condition to apply the modeled wall shear stress. Each agent receives states based on local instantaneous flow quantities at an off-wall location, computes a reward based on the estimated wall-shear stress, and provides an action to update the wall eddy viscosity at each time step. The trained wall model is validated in wall-modeled LES of flow over periodic hills at higher Reynolds numbers, and the results show the effectiveness of the model on flow with pressure gradients. The analysis of the trained model indicates that the model is capable of distinguishing between the various pressure gradient regimes present in the flow. To further assess the robustness of the developed wall model, simulations of flow over the Boeing Gaussian bump are conducted at a Reynolds number of 2 x 10^6, based on the free-stream velocity and the bump width. The results of mean skin friction and pressure on the bump surface, as well as the velocity statistics of the flow field, are compared to those obtained from equilibrium wall model (EQWM) simulations and published experimental data sets. The developed wall model is found to successfully capture the acceleration and deceleration of the turbulent boundary layer on the bump surface, providing better predictions of skin friction near the bump peak and exhibiting comparable performance to the EQWM with respect to the wall pressure and velocity field. We also conclude that the subgrid-scale model is crucial to the accurate prediction of the flow field, in particular the prediction of separation.

boundary layer↗

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗

Modeling the contributions to acoustic nonlinearity from complex dislocation networks using 3D dislocation dynamics

Nonlinear ultrasonic parameters are highly sensitive to microstructural features that affect macroscale material behavior, providing a nondestructive means to characterize their evolution. Although dislocations are known to be a strong source of acoustic nonlinearity, establishing quantitative links between the acoustic nonlinearity parameter (β), measured via Second Harmonic Generation, and dislocation morphology—such as dislocation length and density—remains an open challenge. This work advances the numerical modeling of dislocation–β relationships using 3D dislocation dynamics (DD) simulations in two approaches: a “static” method computing strain and stress fields from dislocation configurations in the absence of external loading, and a “quasi-static” method to estimate β from the curvature of dislocation lines under applied load. First, the static method is combined with finite element analysis to investigate a recent assertion that heterogeneous initial strain fields can induce higher harmonic generation in a linear elastic medium; the present results do not corroborate this outcome. Then, the quasi-static method is applied to multiple-dislocation scenarios through parametric studies, revealing behaviors not predicted by analytical models, such as the competing interactions of edge and screw dislocations and the significant influence of applied stress on β. Finally, the simulations are used to model SHG experimental results and validate the hypothesis that β can decrease during plastic deformation, despite increasing dislocation density. As the DD code used here is open-source, it provides a practical platform for future investigation into microstructure–β relationships important to the interpretation of SHG results.

Materials science↗

A new method for measuring refractory corrosion of ceramics in glass

Abstract Nuclear waste glass vitrification furnaces are lined with refractory ceramic blocks to contain the molten glass. The refractory liner is susceptible to corrosion and has a finite service lifetime. For this reason, predicting the refractory corrosion in contact with molten glass is integral to estimating melter service lifetime. Standardized laboratory tests varying time and temperature are commonly performed to estimate refractory material loss as a function of glass composition. These data are time and resource‐intensive to collect and are susceptible to considerable measurement error. In order to accelerate glass formulation and design for nuclear waste vitrification, methods are needed to increase laboratory‐scale throughput while maintaining data quality. In this work, a method to remove the residual glass from a corroded coupon using hydrofluoric acid is presented that accelerates the throughput of sample analysis while simultaneously facilitating more accurate measurements.

Amoroso, Jake W. [Savannah River National Laborato↗

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Persistent, “Mysterious” Seismoacoustic Signals Reported in Oklahoma State during 2019

Here, we report on the source of seismoacoustic pulses that were observed across the state of Oklahoma (OK) during summer of 2019, and the subject of national media coverage and speculation. Seismic network data collected across four U.S. states and interviews with witnesses to the pulse’s effect on residential structures demonstrate that they were triggered by routine ammunition disposal operations conducted by McAlester Army Ammunition Plant (McAAP). During these operations, conventional explosives destroy obsolete munitions stored in pits through a controlled sequence of electronically timed shots that occur over tens of minutes. Despite noise-abatement efforts that reduce coupling of acoustic energy with air, some lower frequency, subaudible (infrasonic) sound radiates from these shots as discrete pulses. We use nine months of blast log documents, seismic network records, analyst picks, and physical modeling to demonstrate that seismic stations as far as 640 km from McAAP sample these pulses, which record seasonal patterns in stratospheric and tropospheric winds, as well as the dynamic formation of waveguides and shadow zones. Digital short-term average to long-term average detectors that we augment with dynamic thresholds and time-binning operations identify these pulses with a fair probability, when compared with visual observations. Our analyses thereby provide estimates of observation rates for both partial and full sequences of these pulses, as well as single shots. We suggest that disposal operations can exploit existing, composite seismic networks to predict where residents are likely to witness blasting. Crucially, our data also show that dense seismic networks can record multiscale atmospheric processes in the absence of infrasound arrays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Investigating the Relationship Between Bolide Entry Angle and Apparent Direction of Infrasound Signal Arrivals

Infrasound sensing offers critical capabilities for detecting and geolocating bolide events globally. However, the observed back azimuths, directions from which infrasound signals arrive at stations, often differ from the theoretical expectations based on the bolide’s peak brightness location. For objects with shallow entry angles, which traverse longer atmospheric paths, acoustic energy may be emitted from multiple points along the trajectory, leading to substantial variability in back azimuth residuals. This study investigates how the entry angle of energetic bolides affects the back azimuth deviations, independent of extrinsic factors such as atmospheric propagation, station noise, and signal processing methodologies. A theoretical framework, the Bolide Infrasound Back-Azimuth EXplorer Model (BIBEX-M), was developed to compute predicted back azimuths solely from geometric considerations. The model quantifies how these residuals vary as a function of source-to-receiver distance, revealing that bolides entering at shallow angles, e.g., 10°, can produce average residuals of 20°, with deviations reaching up to 46° at distances below 1000 km, and remaining significant even at 5000 km (up to 8°). In contrast, bolides with steeper entry angles, e.g., > 60°, show smaller deviations, typically under 5° at 1000 km and diminishing to less than ~1° beyond 5000 km. These findings attest to the need for careful interpretation when evaluating signal detections and estimating bolide locations. This work is not only pertinent to bolides but also to other high-energy, extended-duration atmospheric phenomena such as space debris and reentry events, where similar geometric considerations can influence infrasound arrival directions.

Acoustics↗

Theory of Ion-Mediated Segmental Localization, Activated Structural Relaxation, and the Glass Transition in Polymerized Ionic Liquids

Here we combine polymer integral equation theory for structural correlations with a force-level theory for activated segmental relaxation to construct a microscopic theory for how ions modify the onset of segmental localization, the polymer alpha relaxation time, and glass transition temperature, T g , in dry polymerized ionic liquids (PolyILs). Our most important findings concerning the behavior of T g are (i) a weak dependence on anion–cation Coulomb attraction strength due to strong decoupling of ion and segmental dynamics, (ii) strong reduction with increasing mobile ion size due to both plasticization effects and weakening of ion-modified monomer caging, and (iii) increase with backbone rigidity and intrachain dynamic cooperativity. We quantitatively estimate T g variations as ion size and polymer static and dynamic rigidity are widely varied. The experimental data of 19 PolyILs are organized into a specific pattern consistent with the theoretical predictions with glass transition temperatures varying over a very wide range (~250 K) as observed experimentally. Based on the theoretical results, suggestions are made concerning the search for high conductivity Li- or Na-based PolyILs based on further lowering of T g via new polymer synthesis. Calculations of the alpha time as a function of packing fraction reveal the dynamic fragility increases for larger mobile ions, a more flexible backbone, and/or a smaller degree of intrachain dynamic cooperativity, as a consequence of the increasing importance of collective elasticity in determining the activation barrier. An analysis of transient segmental localization and a crossover to activated dynamics reveals similar, but not identical, trends as predicted at the laboratory vitrification timescale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Network Based Estimation of Wind Farm Power and Velocity Data Under Changing Wind Direction

This paper describes an estimation algorithm for velocity and power output signals in a wind farm under changing wind direction. A graph-theoretic definition describes the wind farm as a collection of nodes (turbines) and time-varying weighted edges (inter-turbine wake propagation) that change as a function of incoming wind direction. The velocity at each turbine is determined through a discrete input-output model. Changes in wind direction serve as the input and the output is defined in terms of a time-varying weighted adjacency matrix that depends on the time-delay of information propagation between turbines. These delays, which are defined in terms of the advection speed of the wind and the distance between the turbines, capture the delayed effect of wind direction changes on the inter-connectivity of the graph as the wind conditions at the farm inlet propagate through the turbine array. An event-based update framework is employed to capture time-dependent topology changes due to shifts in wind direction. Simulation results for dynamically changing wind inlet directions to a circular wind farm are compared to predictions from both the static and dynamic versions of the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model. The approach is shown to enable real-time tracking of dynamic changes to wind farm power output within a framework that can be easily integrated into real-time, horizon-based, control strategies that typically do not account for wind direction changes.

distributed↗

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗

m-CUBES An efficient and portable implementation of multi-dimensional integration for gpus

The task of multi-dimensional numerical integration is frequently encountered in physics and other scientific fields, e.g., in modeling the effects of systematic uncertainties in physical systems and in Bayesian parameter estimation. Multi-dimensional integration is often time-prohibitive on CPUs. Efficient implementation on many-core architectures is challenging as the workload across the integration space cannot be predicted a priori. We propose m-Cubes, a novel implementation of the well-known Vegas algorithm for execution on GPUs. Vegas transforms integration variables followed by calculation of a Monte Carlo integral estimate using adaptive partitioning of the resulting space. m-Cubes improves performance on GPUs by maintaining relatively uniform workload across the processors. As a result, our optimized Cuda implementation for Nvidia GPUs outperforms parallelization approaches proposed in past literature. We further demonstrate the efficiency of m-Cubes by evaluating a six-dimensional integral from a cosmology application, achieving significant speedup and greater precision than the CUBA library's CPU implementation of VEGAS. We also evaluate m-Cubes on a standard integrand test suite. m-Cubes outperforms the serial implementations of the Cuba and GSL libraries by orders of magnitude speedup while maintaining comparable accuracy. Our approach yields a speedup of at least 10 when compared against publicly available Monte Carlo based GPU implementations. In summary, m-Cubes can solve integrals that are prohibitively expensive using standard libraries and custom implementations. A modern C++ interface header-only implementation makes m-Cubes portable, allowing its utilization in complicated pipelines with easy to define stateful integrals. Compatibility with non-Nvidia GPUs is achieved with our initial implementation of m-Cubes using the Kokkos framework.

Sakiotis, Ioannis↗

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗

Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Semi-Annual Report for Modular Integrated Gas High Temperature Reactor Development during Performance Period April 2022 - September 2022

Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multidisciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. Additionally, Argonne is providing analysis of the primary coolant system to ensure temperatures within the core remain below safety margins during steady-state and potential accident scenarios. This second semi-annual report summarized the progress made at Argonne on the two tasks during the second half of FY22. As a part of the RCCS design task, a scoping calculation in estimating HVAC capability for the HC-HTGR reactor building was performed. A water panel modeling study was first performed with the test case, which confirms the capability of the RELAP5-3D modeling approach to explore various design options of the HC-HTGR RCCS under consideration. Then, a reference RELAP5-3D model for the unit geometry of the preliminary design of the HC-HTGR RCCS was developed. A preliminary performance analysis was conducted to evaluate the performances of a single-phase natural circulation and panel conduction in various operating conditions. For the primary coolant system analysis task, preliminary thermal hydraulic analysis of the HC-HTGR core design was performed with a high resolution 1D fluid-3D solid coupled model using the System Analysis Module (SAM) to assess the assembly coolant channel and bypass flow mass flow rate distribution. Some preliminary work on the development of a full core reduced order model was discussed following the assembly level model to predict the core wide coolant flow distribution and to model certain operational and accidental transients.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗