Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53

Slab-geometry Nd:glass laser performance studies

It is noted that slab-geometry solid-state lasers potentially provide significant performance improvements relative to conventional rod-geometry lasers. Experimental measurements that use an Nd:glass test-bed slab laser are presented. A comparison is made between the results and computer-model predictions of the slab-geometry approach. The computer model calculates and displays the temperature and stress fields in the slab, and on the basis of these predicts birefringence and index-of-refraction distributions. The effect that these distributions have on optical propagation is determined in a polarization-sensitive ray-tracing section of the model. Calculations are also made of stress-induced surface curvature and the resulting focusing effects. The measurements are found to be in good agreement with the computer-model predictions. It is concluded that the slab configuration offers significant laser-performance advantages in comparison with the traditional rod-laser geometry.

Eggleston, J. M.↗

Assessment of Artemis-1 Pogo Flight Instrumentation System

As the space industry continues to strive for more efficient launch vehicles, it must relyon increasingly accurate predictive models. Verification of models typically requires physical testing. Flight data measurements offer the most real and therefore the most accurate data for model correlation. As NASA prepares for the inaugural launch of Space Launch System(SLS), Artemis-1, they must rely heavily on predictive system models to ensure flight safety.NASA has implemented a Development Flight Instrumentation (DFI) system in hopes of recovering useful flight data to aid in model correlation. Historically, some of the most important flight measurements are those that monitor the potentially destructive dynamic interaction of the structural and propellant modes – a phenomenon known as pogo. Pogo is a dynamic instability that can occur on a launch vehicle during any phase of ascent. During this investigation an end-to-end assessment of the Artemis-I Pogo-related DFI was performed to identify any obstacles inherent in the current instrumentation system which may prevent successful measurement of the data necessary to validate the current predictive fluid-structural models. Input drive signals were approximated and applied to a state-space system model to derive predicted pressure and acceleration responses. These predicted responses were then fed through a simulation of the data acquisition process in order to recover predicted measurements. Finally, a mock Flight Data Analysis (FDA) was performed to assess the ability of these measurements to meet the Flight Test Objectives(FTO).

Adam Johnson↗

TOPEX/POSEIDON orbit maintenance maneuver design

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/POSEIDON) mission orbit requirements are outlined, as well as its control and maneuver spacing requirements including longitude and time targeting. A ground-track prediction model dealing with geopotential, luni-solar gravity, and atmospheric-drag perturbations is considered. Targeting with all modeled perturbations is discussed, and such ground-track prediction errors as initial semimajor axis, orbit-determination, maneuver-execution, and atmospheric-density modeling errors are assessed. A longitude targeting strategy for two extreme situations is investigated employing all modeled perturbations and prediction errors. It is concluded that atmospheric-drag modeling errors are the prevailing ground-track prediction error source early in the mission during high solar flux, and that low solar-flux levels expected late in the experiment stipulate smaller maneuver magnitudes.

Bhat, R. S.↗

Predicting Supersonic Noise at the Airport—Tech Challenge Wrapup

NASA has completed a Technical Challenge to reduce uncertainty of predicting the noise of future commercial supersonic aircraft around the airport. Noise prediction models being used to guide manufacturers and regulators have previously been based on conventional aircraft configurations. Aircraft configurations required for supersonic flight are not predicted well by these models. NASA used physics-based simulations along with some historical data to extend noise prediction models to cover aircraft designs typical of near-term market concepts. The presentation gives an overview of this work and its lasting accomplishments.

supersonic↗

An Operational Wake Vortex Sensor Using Pulsed Coherent Lidar

NASA and FAA initiated a program in 1994 to develop methods of setting spacings for landing aircraft by incorporating information on the real-time behavior of aircraft wake vortices. The current wake separation standards were developed in the 1970's when there was relatively light airport traffic and a logical break point by which to categorize aircraft. Today's continuum of aircraft sizes and increased airport packing densities have created a need for re-evaluation of wake separation standards. The goals of this effort are to ensure that separation standards are adequate for safety and to reduce aircraft spacing for higher airport capacity. Of particular interest are the different requirements for landing under visual flight conditions and instrument flight conditions. Over the years, greater spacings have been established for instrument flight than are allowed for visual flight conditions. Preliminary studies indicate that the airline industry would save considerable money and incur fewer passenger delays if a dynamic spacing system could reduce separations at major hubs during inclement weather to the levels routinely achieved under visual flight conditions. The sensor described herein may become part of this dynamic spacing system known as the "Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System" (AVOSS) that will interface with a future air traffic control system. AVOSS will use vortex behavioral models and short-term weather prediction models in order to predict vortex behavior sufficiently into the future to allow dynamic separation standards to be generated. The wake vortex sensor will periodically provide data to validate AVOSS predictions. Feasibility of measuring wake vortices using a lidar was first demonstrated using a continuous wave (CW) system from NASA Marshall Space Flight Sensor and tested at the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center's wake vortex test site at JFK International Airport. Other applications of CW lidar for wake vortex measurement have been made more recently, including a system developed by the MIT Lincoln Laboratory. This lidar has been used for detailed measurements of wake vortex velocities in support of wake vortex model validation. The first measurements of wake vortices using a pulsed, lidar were made by Coherent Technologies, Inc. (CTI) using a 2 micron solid-state, flashlamp-pumped system operating at 5 Hz. This system was first deployed at Denver's Stapleton Airport. Pulsed lidar has been selected as the baseline technology for an operational sensor due to its longer range capability.

Barker, Ben C., Jr.↗

Model Evaluation and Intercomparison Using Data Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar in Hampton, Virginia

Throughout the year 2022, the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) has been frequently collecting ozone and aerosol measurements in the lower troposphere. The lidar is located in the parking lot behind the Atmospheric Sciences building at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia, approximately 37.095 N, -76.389 W. The data was collected during a range of several distinct atmospheric conditions, including stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. We use this data to evaluate and intercompare the forecast accuracy of two atmospheric chemistry models: the GEOS Composition Forecasting model (GEOS-CF) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Both models make daily three-dimensional forecasts of many trace gases and species for the contiguous United States. Over a range of ten distinct collection events, each spanning 36 hours to nearly seven days, the forecast models predict tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy. The models best predict the timing and shape of the observed stratospheric intrusions in the middle troposphere but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratios. For other atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model accuracy. Here, we summarize the accuracy of the models for all events and investigate reasons for differences between the models and the lidar.

Daniel B. Phoenix↗

Rectangular nozzle plume velocity modeling for use in jet noise prediction

A modeling technique for predicting the axial and transverse velocity characteristics of rectangular nozzle plumes is developed. In this technique, modeling of the plume cross section is initiated at the nozzle exit plane. The technique is demonstrated for the plume issuing from a rectangular nozzle having an aspect ratio of 6.0 and discharging into quiescent air. Application of the present procedures to a nozzle discharging into a moving airstream (flight effect) are then demonstrated. The effects of plume shear layer structure modification on the velocity flowfield are discussed and modeling procedures are illustrated by example.

Vonglahn, U. H.↗

Rectangular nozzle plume velocity modeling for use in jet noise prediction

A modeling technique for predicting the axial and transverse velocity characteristics of rectangular nozzle plumes is developed. In this technique, modeling of the plume cross section is initiated at the nozzle exit plane. The technique is demonstrated for the plume issuing from a rectangular nozzle having an aspect ratio of 6.0 and discharging into quiescent air. Application of the present procedures to a nozzle discharging into a moving airstream (flight effect) are then demonstrated. The effects of plume shear layer structure modification on the velocity flowfield are discussed and modeling procedures are illustrated by example.

Von Glahn, U. H.↗

Acoustic Measurements of Small Solid Rocket Motor

Rocket acoustic noise can induce loads and vibration on the vehicle as well as the surrounding structures. Models have been developed to predict these acoustic loads based on scaling existing solid rocket motor data. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center acoustics team has measured several small solid rocket motors (thrust below 150,000 lbf) to anchor prediction models. This data will provide NASA the capability to predict the acoustic environments and consequent vibro-acoustic response of larger rockets (thrust above 1,000,000 lbf) such as those planned for the NASA Constellation program. This paper presents the methods used to measure acoustic data during the static firing of small solid rocket motors and the trends found in the data.

Vargas, Magda B.↗

Application of radar polarimetry to forestry

In order to understand L-band multipolarization radar measurements of forested areas, a model for the forest polarization signature was developed. The model is based on backscatter from dielectric cylinders which represent branches and trunks. In the model the Stokes matrices corresponding to several different scattering mechanisms is calculated, combining the results to get the total Stokes matrix. Comparison of model predictions with radar measurements shows that the model can accurately predict the forest polarization signature.

Durden, S. L.↗

Electromechanical simulation and testing of actively controlled rotordynamic systems with piezoelectric actuators

Theoretical developments for the simulation of an actively controlled rotorbearing system with piezoelectric type actuators are summarized. Two simulation models were derived; the first assumes that the actuators and other electrical components in the feedback system operate at all frequencies without phase lag or rolloff, while the second model includes the nonideal behavior of these components which are modeled with linear electric circuits. The two models predict identical unbalance response at low frequencies, and the nonideal model also predicts instability-onset feedback gains. The agreement between the measured and predicted results for unbalance response and instability onset gain is very good. The predicted instability-onset feedback gain for active damping was found to be very sensitive to the tare (uncontrolled) damping in the unstable mode.

Lin, Reng R.↗

A Modeling Approach for Handling Qualities and Controls Safety Analysis of Electric Air Taxi Vehicles

The combination of modern advances in electric propulsion, fly-by-wire controls, autonomy, and increasing demand for short range air taxi operations, is currently producing an outburst of vehicle designs more diverse than ever before. Advanced software tools are needed to support the rapid and safe introduction of any design into the airspace, including the safety of the deployed flight control system and vehicle handling qualities. This paper presents a methodology for building air taxi vehicle models with distributed electric propulsion for use in analyzing flight control system safety at the conceptual design level.The approach builds on existing software tools capable of outputting aeromechanics-based linear perturbation models for Vertical Take-off and Landing vehicles with multiple rotors. Rotor torque inputs are then converted into equivalent voltage control inputs, and the linear state and input dynamics matrices are modified to include electric motor dynamics with common parameters for direct-current electric motors. The linear perturbation dynamics are then stitched across multiple operating points into a quasi-Linear Parameter Varying model that covers the full flight envelope. A Model Predictive Controller is developed for use with the full envelope model, and a tradeoff analysis between handling quality and motor requirements is demonstrated using a six passenger NASA air taxi reference design.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗

Overlay coating degradation by simultaneous oxidation and coating/substrate interdiffusion

Degradation of NiCrAlZr overlay coatings on various NiCrAl substrates was examined after cyclic oxidation. Concentration/distance profiles were measured in the coating and substrate after various oxidation exposures at 1150 C. For each stubstrate, the Al content in the coating decreased rapidly. The concentration/distance profiles, and particularly that for Al, reflected the oxide spalling resistance of each coated substrate. A numerical model was developed to simulate diffusion associated with overlay-coating degradation by oxidation and coating/substrate interdiffusion. Input to the numerical model consisted of the Cr and Al content of the coating and substrate, ternary diffusivities, and various oxide spalling parameters. The model predicts the Cr and Al concentrations in the coating and substrate after any number of oxidation/thermal cycles. The numerical model also predicts coating failure based on the ability of the coating to supply sufficient Al to the oxide scale. The validity of the model was confirmed by comparison of the predicted and measured concentration/distance profiles. The model was subsequently used to identify the most critical system parameters affecting coating life.

Nesbitt, J. A.↗

Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation for the X-43A (Hyper-X) from Flight Data

Aerodynamic parameters were estimated based on flight data from the third flight of the X-43A hypersonic research vehicle, also called Hyper-X. Maneuvers were flown using multiple orthogonal phase-optimized sweep inputs applied as simultaneous control surface perturbations at Mach 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 during the vehicle descent. Aerodynamic parameters, consisting of non-dimensional longitudinal and lateral stability and control derivatives, were estimated from flight data at each Mach number. Multi-step inputs at nearly the same flight conditions were also flown to assess the prediction capability of the identified models. Prediction errors were found to be comparable in magnitude to the modeling errors, which indicates accurate modeling. Aerodynamic parameter estimates were plotted as a function of Mach number, and compared with estimates from the pre-flight aerodynamic database, which was based on wind-tunnel tests and computational fluid dynamics. Agreement between flight estimates and values computed from the aerodynamic database was excellent overall.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

An Investigation into the Effect of Liquid Accumulation on Thermo-Physiologic State using an Advanced Moisture Model Coupled with a High Resolution Human Thermal Model

A physics-based mathematical model for simulating heat and moisture transport on the skin and within clothing was developed to improve the accuracy of human thermal modeling predictions. In a previous study, a set of sweating hotplate experiments was specifically created to obtain test data for model validation. The clothing moisture model was subsequently coupled with a human thermal model and tested by simulating human experiments described in the open literature, which served to verify the model’s ability to predict whole body thermo-physiologic state in work-rest cycles during which sweating was known to occur. In this study, a human subject test was specifically designed to validate the model’s ability to predict local and whole body sweat evaporation and accumulation on the surface of the body. The human subject test incorporated twelve clothed male subjects of moderate physical fitness, ages 18-30, which were prescribed a work-rest cycle in a climate-controlled chamber (25 °C, 50% RH). Two activity levels were considered during the active stage (4 MET vs. 6.5 MET), and two sets of ending ambient conditions were considered for the final rest stage (25 °C vs. 15 °C, 50% RH). Model predictions were compared to the measured local skin temperatures, core temperatures, and whole body sweat losses. In general, the model was able to reproduce the trends observed in the human subject trial, but more importantly, provided insight into how dynamic changes in liquid content can impact the evolution of local and whole body thermo-physiologic state. This study demonstrates the ability of an advanced moisture model to capture distinct physics attributable to moisture accumulation, allowing for increased accuracy in predicting human thermal state and for interpreting the results of measurements derived from human subject tests.

human thermal model↗

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6-2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world4. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data-model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data- model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data-model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

Salzmann, Ulrich↗