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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of Atmospheric Variability on Predicted Sonic Boom Metrics

As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X-59 aircraft over selected communities to survey community responses to low sonic booms. Previously, we developed a Kalman filter method to estimate the loudness metrics experienced by each survey participant during each flight. The Kalman filter fuses acoustic measurements with predictions from PCBoom, a sonic boom propagation model. PCBoom requires vertical profiles of the temperature, humidity, and wind to propagate sonic booms through the atmosphere and predict the loudness metrics at the ground. Prior to each X-59 flight, NASA will launch weather balloons to measure the vertical atmospheric profile. However, the atmosphere changes continually with geographic location and time. The purpose of this work is to determine where and when to launch these weather balloons to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted loudness metrics caused by atmospheric variability. We analyzed the effect of atmospheric variability on the predicted Perceived Level in three communities in different climate zones in the United States. To achieve acceptable uncertainty in the Perceived Level, weather balloons should be launched from at least two different sites within the survey area within one hour of each X-59 flight.

sonic boom↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Noise Prediction of Multi-stream Internally Mixed Jets with External and Internal Plugs using Large-Eddy Simulation

This paper presents results from ongoing research on jet noise prediction using wall-modeled large eddy simulations (WMLES) conducted within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational framework. The study primarily focuses on the aeroacoustic implications of multi-stream nozzle configurations with internal mixing and both internal and external plugs, at a Reynolds number of 1×10 6 based on the nozzle exit diameter. While internal mixing nozzles have long been considered for jet noise reduction, the complexities of their impact on overall noise levels remain insufficiently understood. This research applies established best practices for WMLES to these complex nozzle configurations, aiming to assess their efficacy and identify limitations in accurately predicting noise behaviors. Through detailed comparisons with experimental data obtained from NASA’s Glenn Research Center, initial findings underscore the challenges inherent in current simulation practices when confronted with intricate geometric and operational conditions. Responding to these challenges, the study explores innovative computational approaches to rectify discrepancies noted between experimental outcomes and CFD predictions. Once example is the introduction of a resonating sound source in the simulation environment to mimic potential unobserved acoustic phenomena.A second example is the strategic modifications to the geometry of external plugs to account for real-world deformations caused by heating and gravity. These novel strategies aim to enhance the accuracy and reliability of noise predictions from supersonic jets, advancing our understanding and capability to effectively reduce jet noise in commercial supersonic aircraft

CST↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fan Noise Predictions of the NASA Source Diagnostic Test using Unsteady Simulations with LAVA Part II - Tonal and Broadband Noise Assessment

The NASA Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) campaign experimental data is used for validation of a sliding mesh technique recently implemented within the Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics computational framework for time-accurate simulation of rotating fans. The far-field acoustics are analyzed in this work, building upon the aerodynamic validation studies previously published in Part I. Two modeling approaches are explored: the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (uRANS) with the negative Spalart-Allmaras (SA-neg) turbulence model closure, and a hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes/large-eddy simulation (RANS/LES) paradigm employing a zonal detached-eddy simulation (ZDES) closure with enhanced shielding protection. Two convective flux scheme approaches with different dissipation properties are also explored with ZDES. The Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) permeable surface approach is used for propagation of the near-field acoustics to the far-field microphone locations. This work analyzes the low-speed (approach) condition, characterized by a fan rotation speed of 7808 rotations-per-minute (RPM). Three different grid levels ranging between 200 million and 1.1 billion grid points are considered. Results show good prediction of the broadband noise levels at sideline angles ranging between 70° and 110°. The forward arc observers show an under-prediction of the overall sound pressure levels (OASPL) even at the fine grid level. A breakdown of the inlet and exhaust contributions reveals a steep drop-off in the broadband noise levels past a blade-passing frequency (BPF) of 1.5, potentially caused by a lack of resolved small-scale turbulent fluctuations in the interstage region. Past 110° the OASPL are over-predicted by up to 10 dB due to an over-prediction of the low-frequency broadband noise levels in the aft arc. The detuning of BPF2 caused by small deviations in the blade stagger angle around the wheel is captured, and a corresponding decrease in the sound power level for this cut-on tone is observed.

AATT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

The accuracy of heating predictions using various turbulence models is examined for an axisymmetric near-wake at Mach 6. The CFD predictions are compared with experimental data collected under AGARD Working Group 18 on the wake of a 70-degree sphere-cone. The impact of grid resolution and discretization error is estimated, which allows a comparison of stacked-block and conventional structured meshes. The accuracy of steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models is contrasted with that of a hybrid RANS/Large-Eddy Simulation model. The predictions are made with three different CFD codes (LAURA, FUN3D, and HyperSolve), to demonstrate the code-to-code variation in the results. Steady SST models capture the qualitative nature of the heating in the wake, including the increasing peak heating with increasing Reynolds number. Spalart-Allmaras models, including SA-Catris, under-predicted the peak heating in the wake. Hybrid RANS/LES models improve upon the SA results but have their own modeling difficulties near the shear layer impingement. These results are generally consistent across solvers and grid topologies.

RANS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

RANS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Additive Manufacturing Process Metric for Predicting Spatter-related Porosity in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Components fabricated using the powder bed fusion laser beam metallic (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) process comprise a multitude of sequential weld passes. Porosity defects resulting from weld pass inconsistencies are a concern for PBF materials and have a strong adverse effect on the mechanical properties. In an effort to understand and avoid spatter induced porosity, this work aims to provide a novel computational technique that can be used to quantify and predict the sequence-sensitive impact of spatter upon the PBF process stability and consequential porosity in as-printed material. A novel spatter impact AM model-based process metric (AM-PM) is introduced to model and quantify the impact that spatter has on the PBF process. The occurrence of spatter induced porosity is studied using thermal rise, lack of fusion, and spatter impact AM-PMs synchronized with porosity measured by high-resolution X-ray computed tomography. Six cylindrical specimens were designed to compare the AM-PM correlations with porosity across two different laser powers and three hatch scanning strategies. A point field based computational approach is shown to be effective for testing the influence of the different AM-PMs and interrogating the physical process conditions underlying the porosity formation. Further, characterization using optical metallography and scanning electron microscopy indicated that both keyhole and lack of fusion porosity correlated with the spatter impact AM-PM, which can be exploited to predict and control spatter related porosity by the hatch strategy. Efforts to predict porosity composition within PBF material should incorporate the PBF process disturbances that can result from spatter. The spatter impact AM-PM can be readily incorporated into the development of defect prediction models at the part scale.

Additive Manufacturing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding the Impact of Unobservable Variables on the Performance of Predictive Models: The Need for Feature Space Partitioning and Fusion

When developing predictive models over a dataset, the model is globally optimized across the entire feature space to learn a decision boundary. However, when unobservable variables—which cannot be measured or estimated—interact with the observable variables, this can negatively impact the optimization applied to the decision boundary since the data samples introduced by unobservable variables may have little to no association with the applied global optimization. This, consequently, penalizes the entire decision boundary and model performance. This paper examines some of the detrimental effects of unobservable variables, particularly their role in creating new modes in the distribution of observable variables and reducing the separability of class distributions. Such challenges result in skewed or warped decision boundaries and decreased accuracy of model predictions, particularly for interpretable models like logistic regression and decision trees. Through two illustrative case examples, we highlight the need to address the challenges imposed by unobservable variables. We propose a strategy to mitigate these challenges by creating local regions within the feature space through partitioning. This enables the optimization of local models within the regions to overcome the impact of unobservability in different feature space localities. Research into a more sophisticated partitioning strategy and where the partition should be relative to the sample of interest is left as future work. Through the analysis of the impact of unobservability and the development of a partitioning method, we demonstrate the clear need for a partitioning strategy that integrates knowledge from multiple local models to estimate risk factors using information fusion. Thus, we establish the foundation and motivation for using partitioning and information fusion to overcome the effects of unobservability in predictive models. Formal fusion methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory, can better leverage the information from local regions to improve the performance of interpretable predictive models in the presence of unobservable variables.

Time Series Data↗

NASA NTRS2024

An Experimental and Predictive Study of Bent-Chamber Acoustic Liners

Acoustic liner samples with rectangular, sharp chamber bends are 3D-printed and tested in the NASA Normal Incidence Tube. The angle of the bend is varied from 0 to 180 degrees. Four different methods are used to predict the impedance behavior of these samples: (1) midline-length assumption, (2) Cummings correction for curved duct bends, (3) Cummings prediction for 180 degrees sharp duct bends, and (4) Helmholtz equation via finite element method. Trends in the experimental data are discussed, predictions are compared to the experimental data, and recommendations are made on prediction method usage. Follow-on work is suggested, including capturing additional test points at higher frequencies and with different chamber geometries. Future modeling strategies are also briefly described.

chamber↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation Assessment of Loci/GGFS Gas Granular Flow Solver Predictions of Ejecta from Physics Focused Ground Test

NASA is preparing to return humans to the Moon to establish a sustained Lunar presence through the Artemis program. One area of concern for Lunar landers is the plume surface interaction (PSI) environment that poses several risks during a propulsive landing. Understanding the PSI environment caused by the landers is therefore important to designing successful landing missions. Towards this end, a two-phase, gas granular flow solver, Loci/GGFS, has been developed to predict the cratering and ejecta physics expected during a Lunar landing. The focus of this paper is on a validation assessment of Loci/GGFS predictions of ejecta with monodisperse glass beads (MGB). The validation assessment is performed with respect to the Physics Focused Ground Test 1 (PFGT1) conducted at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in 2021. It is found that Loci/GGFS predicts similar initial cratering and ejecta features, with predictions of average velocities that are within 25% of experimental values.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transition Prediction for the 30P30N Airfoil and the CRM-HL using FUN3D

The ability to accurately model transition over high-lift configurations can lead to improved agreement between stationary Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations and experimental measurements. In this work, selected transport-equation-based RANS models for transition prediction in the NASA FUN3D flow solver are used to simulate flow over the 30P30N three-element airfoil and the High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL). The primary RANS-based transition model is the Langtry-Menter (LM) 𝜸-Re𝜽𝒕 model coupled with the Menter shear-stress transport model. Additionally, the existing capability for transition prediction based on linear stability correlations is used to allow the modeling of transition over multiple elements of the 30P30N configuration. This approach pairs an algebraic transition model with the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model that relies on an imposed transition location in FUN3D and the parabolized stability equations as implemented in the LASTRAC code. Predictions based on these different transition prediction approaches and models are compared with each other, experimental data, and previous simulations by evaluating the lift and drag coefficients, the surface-pressure/skin-friction distributions, and the locations of transition onset. Results are presented for multiple angles of attack for the 30P30N airfoil and CRM-HL. For the CRM-HL, a grid resolution study is performed for the LM transition model and the SA turbulence model.

High Lift↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation Assessment of Loci/GGFS Gas Granular Flow Solver Predictions of Ejecta From Physics Focused Ground Test

Plume Surface Interaction↗

NASA NTRS2003

Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

Physical Endurance/physiology↗

NASA NTRS2000

Discriminability measures for predicting readability of text on textured backgrounds

Several discriminability measures were examined for their ability to predict reading search times for three levels of text contrast and a range of backgrounds (plain, a periodic texture, and four spatial-frequency-filtered textures created from the periodic texture). Search times indicate that these background variations only affect readability when the text contrast is low, and that spatial frequency content of the background affects readability. These results were not well predicted by the single variables of text contrast (Spearman rank correlation = -0.64) and background RMS contrast (0.08), but a global masking index and a spatial-frequency-selective masking index led to better predictions (-0.84 and -0.81, respectively). c2000 Optical Society of America.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

NASA NTRS2007

Learning and Prediction of Slip from Visual Information

This paper presents an approach for slip prediction from a distance for wheeled ground robots using visual information as input. Large amounts of slippage which can occur on certain surfaces, such as sandy slopes, will negatively affect rover mobility. Therefore, obtaining information about slip before entering such terrain can be very useful for better planning and avoiding these areas. To address this problem, terrain appearance and geometry information about map cells are correlated to the slip measured by the rover while traversing each cell. This relationship is learned from previous experience, so slip can be predicted remotely from visual information only. The proposed method consists of terrain type recognition and nonlinear regression modeling. The method has been implemented and tested offline on several off-road terrains including: soil, sand, gravel, and woodchips. The final slip prediction error is about 20%. The system is intended for improved navigation on steep slopes and rough terrain for Mars rovers.

rover↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

trajectory prediction uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2016

Applications of Displacement Transfer Functions to Deformed Shape Predictions of the G-III Swept-Wing Structure

In support of the Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge [ACTE] project at the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center, displacement transfer functions were applied to the swept wing of a Gulfstream G-III airplane (Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Savannah, Georgia) to obtain deformed shape predictions. Four strainsensing lines (two on the lower surface, two on the upper surface) were used to calculate the deformed shape of the G III wing under bending and torsion. There being an insufficient number of surface strain sensors, the existing G III wing box finite element model was used to generate simulated surface strains for input to the displacement transfer functions. The resulting predicted deflections have good correlation with the finite-element generated deflections as well as the measured deflections from the ground load calibration test. The convergence study showed that the displacement prediction error at the G III wing tip can be reduced by increasing the number of strain stations (for each strain-sensing line) down to a minimum error of l.6 percent at 17 strain stations; using more than 17 strain stations yielded no benefit because the error slightly increased to 1.9% when 32 strain stations were used.

displacement theory↗