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NASA NTRS1994

Structural properties of compact groups

We report the results of a systematic study of galaxies in the regions of Hickson compact groups. Our sample is composed of the 22 Hickson groups which are located in the southern hemisphere and have cz less than 9000 km/s. Making use of digitized images of IIIa-J plates that cover an area of 0.5 x 0.5 deg around each group, we were able to detect and classify images down to a magnitude limit of 19.5 in the B band. This limit is typically three magnitudes fainter than previous studies. Most groups show a statistically significant excess of fainter galaxies compared to the background. These fainter galaxies typically have a somewhat more extended spatial distribution than the brighter galaxies originally classified by Hickson. Our data suggest that Hickson groups have a wide range in density and radius, ranging from very compact structures with overdensities of the order of 10(exp 2) and crossing times of roughly 0.01 H(sub 0 sup -1), to much more diffuse structures, similar to loose groups, with overdensities of about 3 and crossing times of roughly 0.5 H(sub 0 sup -1).

De Carvalho, R. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An analytical and experimental investigation of the response of the curved, composite frame/skin specimens

Six-foot diameter, semicircular graphite/epoxy specimens representative of generic aircraft frames were loaded quasi-statistically to determine their load response and failure mechanisms for large deflections that occur in airplanes crashes. These frame/skin specimens consisted of a cylindrical skin section co-cured with a semicircular I-frame. The skin provided the necessary lateral stiffness to keep deformations in the plane of the frame in order to realistically represent deformations as they occur in actual fuselage structures. Various frame laminate stacking sequences and geometries were evaluated by statically loading the specimen until multiple failures occurred. Two analytical methods were compared for modeling the frame/skin specimens: a two-dimensional shell finite element analysis and a one-dimensional, closed-form, curved beam solution derived using an energy method. Flange effectivities were included in the beam analysis to account for the curling phenomenon that occurs in thin flanges of curved beams. Good correlation was obtained between experimental results and the analytical predictions of the linear response of the frames prior to the initial failure. The specimens were found to be useful for evaluating composite frame designs.

Moas, Eduardo↗

NASA NTRS1994

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites has been available for over a decade. These data are used extensively by operational analysts and forecasters, mainly in a qualitative mode (Weldon and Holmes 1991). In addition to qualitative applications, motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes, thereby augmenting the information provided by cloud-drift wind vectors. Early attempts at quantifying the data by tracking features in water vapor imagery met with modest success (Stewart et al. 1985; Hayden and Stewart 1987). More recently, automated techniques have been developed and refined, and have resulted in upper-level wind observations comparable in quality to current operational cloud-tracked winds (Laurent 1993). In a recent study by Velden et al. (1993) it was demonstrated that wind sets derived from Meteosat-3 (M-3) water vapor imagery can provide important environmental wind information in data void areas surrounding tropical cyclones, and can positively impact objective track forecasts. M-3 was repositioned to 75W by the European Space Agency in 1992 in order to provide complete coverage of the Atlantic Ocean. Data from this satellite are being transmitted to the U.S. for operational use. Compared with the current GOES-7 (G-7) satellite (positioned near 112W), the M-3 water vapor channel contains a superior horizontal resolution (5 km vs. 16 km ). In this paper, we examine wind sets derived using automated procedures from both GOES-7 and Meteosat-3 full disk water vapor imagery in order to assess this data as a potentially important source of large-scale wind information. As part of a product demonstration wind sets were produced twice a day at CIMSS during a six-week period in March and April (1994). These data sets are assessed in terms of geographic coverage, statistical accuracy, and meteorological impact through preliminary results of numerical model forecast studies.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Dee, D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Neutral Networks for Subpixel Classification of Multispectral Images

In this work, the implementation and use of AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) images for subpixel analysis is studied. The work consists of two parts, the first is making training data, the second is using the training data to design a neural net subpixel analyzer. Most work on subpixel analysis has been done with images with more spectral bands. AVHRR images were chosen because of their easy acquisition, and because the five spectral bands allow investigation into the development of training data. The first step in subpixel analysis is the development of training data. This consists of image to be classified, and the classification of each pixel. In order to do the classification, a high spatial resolution image is typically needed in order to manually create a classified image. It is difficult to have both the image of interest, and a high spatial resolution image of the same area taken at the same time. Thus it was studied whether a subsampled image taken from the image of interest could serve as the training data. Statistical work has been done showing the unusefulness of this approach. In the second part of the analysis, a feedforward neural net was trained and used to classify the AVHRR images. Results of these tests, comparing the neural net with typical statistical based schemes are shown.

Figueroa, Ricardo R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Uncertainties in Ice-Sheet Altimetry from a Spaceborne 1064-nm Single-Channel Lidar Due to Undetected Thin Clouds

In support of the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)-II mission, this paper studies the bias in surface-elevation measurements caused by undetected thin clouds. The ICESat-II satellite may only have a 1064-nm single-channel lidar onboard. Less sensitive to clouds than the 532-nm channel, the 1064-nm channel tends to miss thin clouds. Previous studies have demonstrated that scattering by cloud particles increases the photon-path length, thus resulting in biases in ice-sheet-elevation measurements from spaceborne lidars. This effect is referred to as atmospheric path delay. This paper complements previous studies in the following ways: First, atmospheric path delay is estimated over the ice sheets based on cloud statistics from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System onboard ICESat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Terra and Aqua. Second, the effect of cloud particle size and shape is studied with the state-of-the-art phase functions developed for MODIS cirrus- cloud microphysical model. Third, the contribution of various orders of scattering events to the path delay is studied, and an analytical model of the first-order scattering contribution is developed. This paper focuses on the path delay as a function of telescope field of view (FOV). The results show that reducing telescope FOV can significantly reduce the expected path delay. As an example, the average path delays for FOV = 167 microrad (a 100-m-diameter circle on the surface) caused by thin undetected clouds by the 1064-nm channel over Greenland and East Antarctica are illustrated.

Yang, Yuekui↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Safe Removal of Frozen Air from the Annulus of an LH2 Storage Tank

Large Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) storage tanks are vital infrastructure for NASA. Eventually, air may leak into the evacuated and perlite filled annular region of these tanks. Although the vacuum level is monitored in this region, the extremely cold temperature causes all but the helium and neon constituents of air to freeze. A small, often unnoticeable pressure rise is the result. As the leak persists, the quantity of frozen air increases, as does the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Consequently, a notable increase in commodity boil-off is often the first indicator of an air leak. Severe damage can result from normal draining of the tank. The warming air will sublimate which will cause a pressure rise in the annulus. When the pressure increases above the triple point, the frozen air will begin to melt and migrate downward. Collection of liquid air on the carbon steel outer shell may chill it below its ductility range, resulting in fracture. In order to avoid a structural failure, as described above, a method for the safe removal of frozen air is needed. A thermal model of the storage tank has been created using SINDA/FLUINT modeling software. Experimental work is progressing in an attempt to characterize the thermal conductivity of a perlite/frozen nitrogen mixture. A statistical mechanics model is being developed in parallel for comparison to experimental work. The thermal model will be updated using the experimental/statistical mechanical data, and used to simulate potential removal scenarios. This paper will address methodologies and analysis techniques for evaluation of two proposed air removal methods.

cryogenic insulation↗

NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Mechanics and Dynamics of the Outer Solar System.I. The Jupiter/Saturn Zone

We report on numerical simulations designed to understand how the solar system evolved through a winnowing of planetesimals accreeted from the early solar nebula. This sorting process is driven by the energy and angular momentum and continues to the present day. We reconsider the existence and importance of stable niches in the Jupiter/Saturn Zone using greatly improved numerical techniques based on high-order optimized multi-step integration schemes coupled to roundoff error minimizing methods.

numerical simulations planetesimals planet formati↗

NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

NASA NTRS1976

Improvements in aircraft extraction programs

Flight data from an F-8 Corsair and a Cessna 172 was analyzed to demonstrate specific improvements in the LRC parameter extraction computer program. The Cramer-Rao bounds were shown to provide a satisfactory relative measure of goodness of parameter estimates. It was not used as an absolute measure due to an inherent uncertainty within a multiplicative factor, traced in turn to the uncertainty in the noise bandwidth in the statistical theory of parameter estimation. The measure was also derived on an entirely nonstatistical basis, yielding thereby also an interpretation of the significance of off-diagonal terms in the dispersion matrix. The distinction between coefficients as linear and non-linear was shown to be important in its implication to a recommended order of parameter iteration. Techniques of improving convergence generally, were developed, and tested out on flight data. In particular, an easily implemented modification incorporating a gradient search was shown to improve initial estimates and thus remove a common cause for lack of convergence.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Radial orbit error reduction and sea surface topography determination using satellite altimetry

A method is presented in satellite altimetry that attempts to simultaneously determine the geoid and sea surface topography with minimum wavelengths of about 500 km and to reduce the radial orbit error caused by geopotential errors. The modeling of the radial orbit error is made using the linearized Lagrangian perturbation theory. Secular and second order effects are also included. After a rather extensive validation of the linearized equations, alternative expressions of the radial orbit error are derived. Numerical estimates for the radial orbit error and geoid undulation error are computed using the differences of two geopotential models as potential coefficient errors, for a SEASAT orbit. To provide statistical estimates of the radial distances and the geoid, a covariance propagation is made based on the full geopotential covariance. Accuracy estimates for the SEASAT orbits are given which agree quite well with already published results. Observation equations are develped using sea surface heights and crossover discrepancies as observables. A minimum variance solution with prior information provides estimates of parameters representing the sea surface topography and corrections to the gravity field that is used for the orbit generation. The simulation results show that the method can be used to effectively reduce the radial orbit error and recover the sea surface topography.

Engelis, Theodossios↗

NASA NTRS1996

The HI Environment of Nearby Lyman-alpha Absorbers

We present the results of a VLA and WSRT search for H I emission from the vicinity of seven nearby clouds, which were observed in Ly-alpha absorption with HST toward Mrk 335, Mrk 501, and PKS 2155-304. Around the absorbers, we searched a volume of 4O' x 40' x 1000 km/s; for one of the absorbers we probed a velocity range of only 600 km/s. The H I mass sensitivity (5 sigma) very close to the lines of sight varies from 5 x 10(exp 6) solar mass at best to 5 x 10(exp 8) solar mass at worst. We detected H I emission in the vicinity of four out of seven absorbers. The closest galaxy we find to the absorbers is a small dwarf galaxy at a projected distance of 68 h(exp -1) kpc from the sight line toward Mrk 335. This optically uncataloged galaxy has the same velocity (V = 1970 km/s) as one of the absorbers, is fainter than the SMC, and has an H I mass of only 4 x 10(exp 7) solar mass. We found a somewhat more luminous galaxy at exactly the velocity (V = 5100 km/s) of one of the absorbers toward PKS 2155-304 at a projected distance of 230 h(exp -1) kpc from the sight line. Two other, stronger absorbers toward PKS 2155-304 at V approx. 17,000 km/s appear to be associated with a loose group of three bright spiral galaxies, at projected distances of 300 to 600 h(exp -1) kpc. These results support the conclusions emerging from optical searches that most nearby Ly-alpha forest clouds trace the large-scale structures outlined by the optically luminous galaxies, although this is still based on small-number statistics. We do not find any evidence from the H I distribution or kinematics that there is a physical association between an absorber and its closest galaxy. While the absorbing clouds are at the systemic velocity of the galaxies, the H I extent of the galaxies is fairly typical, and at least an order of magnitude smaller than the projected distance to the sight line at which the absorbers are seen. On the other hand, we also do not find evidence against such a connection. In total, we detected H I emission from five galaxies, of which two were previously uncataloged and one did not have a known redshift. No H I emission was detected from the vicinity of the two absorbers, which are located in a void and a region of very low galaxy density; but the limits are somewhat less stringent than for the other sight lines. These results are similar to what has been found in optically unbiased H I surveys. Thus, presence of Ly-alpha absorbers does not significantly alter the H I detection rate in their environment.

VanGorkom, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring): A Low-activity Comet in Near-Earth Space

The low cometary activity of P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring) allowed a unique opportunity to study the nucleus of a periodic comet while near perihelion. P/2006 HR30 was originally targeted as a potential extinct comet, and we measured spectral reflectance and dust production using long-slit CCD spectroscopy and wide-field imaging obtained at the Palomar Mountain 200 inch telescope on 2006 August 3 and 4. The dust production Afp = 19.7 +/- 0.4 cm and mass-loss rate Q(dust) 4.1 +/- 0.1 kg/sec of the comet were approximately 2 orders of magnitude dust less than 1P/Halley at similar heliocentric distance. The VRI colors derived from the spectral reflectance were compared to Kuiper Belt objects, Centaurs, and other cometary nuclei. We found that the spectrum of P/2006 HR30 was consistent with other comets. However, the outer solar system bodies have a color distribution statistically distinct from cometary nuclei. It is our conjecture that cometary activity, most likely the reaccretion of ejected cometary dust, tends to moderate and mute the visible colors of the surface of cometary nuclei.

comets↗

NASA NTRS2012

Investigation of Effects of Material Architecture on the Elastic Response of a Woven Ceramic Matrix Composite

To develop methods for quantifying the effects of the microstructural variations of woven ceramic matrix composites on the effective properties and response of the material, a research program has been undertaken which is described in this paper. In order to characterize and quantify the variations in the microstructure of a five harness satin weave, CVI SiC/SiC, composite material, specimens were serially sectioned and polished to capture images that detailed the fiber tows, matrix, and porosity. Open source quantitative image analysis tools were then used to isolate the constituents and collect relevant statistics such as within ply tow spacing. This information was then used to build two dimensional finite element models that approximated the observed section geometry. With the aid of geometrical models generated by the microstructural characterization process, finite element models were generated and analyses were performed to quantify the effects of the microstructure and its variation on the effective stiffness and areas of stress concentration of the material. The results indicated that the geometry and distribution of the porosity appear to have significant effects on the through-thickness modulus. Similarly, stress concentrations on the outer surface of the composite appear to correlate to regions where the transverse tows are separated by a critical amount.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Free-form Airfoil Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Maximum Expected Value and Second-order Second-moment Strategies

Free-form shape optimization of airfoils poses unexpected difficulties. Practical experience has indicated that a deterministic optimization for discrete operating conditions can result in dramatically inferior performance when the actual operating conditions are different from the - somewhat arbitrary - design values used for the optimization. Extensions to multi-point optimization have proven unable to adequately remedy this problem of "localized optimization" near the sampled operating conditions. This paper presents an intrinsically statistical approach and demonstrates how the shortcomings of multi-point optimization with respect to "localized optimization" can be overcome. The practical examples also reveal how the relative likelihood of each of the operating conditions is automatically taken into consideration during the optimization process. This is a key advantage over the use of multipoint methods.

Huyse, Luc↗

NASA NTRS1975

Subgrid or Reynolds stress-modeling for three-dimensional turbulence computations

A review is given of recent advances in two distinct computational methods for evaluating turbulence fields, namely, statistical Reynolds stress modeling and turbulence simulation, where large eddies are followed in time. It is shown that evaluation of the mean Reynolds stresses, rather than use of a scalar eddy viscosity, permits an explanation of streamline curvature effects found in several experiments. Turbulence simulation, with a new volume averaging technique and third-order accurate finite-difference computing is shown to predict the decay of isotropic turbulence in incompressible flow with rather modest computer storage requirements, even at Reynolds numbers of aerodynamic interest.

Rubesin, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A study of the feasibility of statistical analysis of airport performance simulation

The feasibility of conducting a statistical analysis of simulation experiments to study airport capacity is investigated. First, the form of the distribution of airport capacity is studied. Since the distribution is non-Gaussian, it is important to determine the effect of this distribution on standard analysis of variance techniques and power calculations. Next, power computations are made in order to determine how economic simulation experiments would be if they are designed to detect capacity changes from condition to condition. Many of the conclusions drawn are results of Monte-Carlo techniques.

Myers, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Optimum waiting time for acquisition of return link PN signals

The subject of this paper is a model that takes into account the effect that acquisition of a PN signal on the forward link has on the acquisition of a PN signal on the return link. The model is used to determine how long the start of the PN search on the return link should be delayed in order to minimize the combined acquisition time (delay + acquisition time) as a function of desired acquisition probability. It is assumed that the return link a-priori epoch uncertainty information is available. Software has been developed that models the return link PN receiver and incorporates in it the effect of forward link PN acquisition statistics in assessing performance.

Kolata, W.↗