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At least 955 records · Page 53

Nutrient Controls on Net Primary Production Decline in the Subtropical North Atlantic

The subtropical North Atlantic Ocean (STNA) has been experiencing a steady decline in both Chlorophyll a (the primary photosynthetic pigment in phytoplankton used to identify abundance in the ocean) and net primary production (the net amount carbon fixed in the surface ocean by phytoplankton after losses to respiration). This decline is spread across the entire STNA and has been ongoing since the beginning of the satellite ocean color record in 1997. Previous work has attributed these changes to decreased nutrient exchange between nutrient-poor surface waters and nutrient-rich deep waters resulting from increased stratification driven by surface warming due to climate change. Our results from an analysis of satellite data, Argo float data, and historical cruise data show significant inconsistencies with this hypothesis. We observe a trend of increased stratification for half the STNA basin but decreased stratification in the other half. Where we see increased stratification, we also see changes in nitrate that would result in an increased delivery of nitrate to surface waters if vertical transport across the stratified layers was the dominant source of nutrients. Our working hypothesis is that changes in circulation in the subtropical gyre have resulted in an altered mix of source waters with distinct nutrient characteristics. The mechanism behind the decline in primary production in the STNA remains unclear. We will use the ECCO-Darwin data-assimilative global ocean biogeochemistry model to further investigate the mechanisms behind the observed changes in production and nutrients in the STNA.

Nutrient↗

Ocean Circulation and Biogeochemistry

Dr. Whitt will give an oral presentation on his work on the impact of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation on North Atlantic Ocean biogeochemical tracer budgets, including nutrients and carbon. The results are derived from two versions of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model, including the latest release V4r5 (at 1 degree resolution) and the actively developed LLC270 (at 1/3 degree resolution).

MOC↗

Constraining Oceanic Sources and Sinks of CO2 by Inverse Modeling: A First Step Toward Assimilation of In Situ and Remote Data

The primary goal of this collaborative project, lead by Nicholas Gruber at UCLA, is to better quantify the air-sea fluxes of pre-industrial and anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 for the global ocean with a newly developed inverse method. The method involves using ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) to characterize the subsurface distribution of tracers injected for different regions of the ocean surface. By linearly combining a series of these basis (or Greens) functions, one should be able to recreate any arbitrary ocean tracer field. In our case, we are using the global database of ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the WOCE/JGOFS global CO2 survey from the 1990s. The observed DIC field has been partitioned into pre-industrial and anthropogenic components using the empirical C* technique. We then solve for an optimal combination of the regional basis functions that best match the two sets observations in a least-squares sense with singular value decomposition. This in turn provides solutions for the regional air-sea CO2 fluxes (pre-industrial and anthropogenic) that are independent of more traditional estimates derived from surface water disequilibria in the partial pressure of CO2 and wind speed gas exchange parameterizations. We are apply the method to a suite of nine different OGCMs to test the robustness of the derived surface fluxes fields to differences in ocean circulation. Together with a collegue Keith Lindsay at NCAR, S. Doney's role in this project was to create the appropriate steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions from the NCAR CSM-1 ocean circulation model. Because of a slow start across the project in defining a common set of experimental protocols, we requested and were given a one year, no cost extension. Both the steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions were delivered to the UCLA group for further analysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Doney, Scott↗

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Rienecker, Michele↗

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P < 0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and a CDOC (r =0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250-800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within 0.074 mW/sq cm/micron/sr of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of 10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability. PACE, ocean color, water-leaving radiances, biogeochemical model, radiative transfer model

PIC↗

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent By Sea Ice Processes and Feedbacks With the Ocean and the Atmosphere

The seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly asymmetric, with a relatively slow increase after the summer minimum followed by a more rapid decrease after the winter maximum. This cycle is intimately linked to the seasonal cycle of the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere, but sea ice processes as well as the exchanges with the atmosphere and ocean may also play a role. To quantify these contributions, a series of idealized sensitivity experiments have been performed with an eddy-permitting (∘) NEMO-LIM3 (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean–Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model version 3) Southern Ocean configuration, including a representation of ice shelf cavities, in which the model was either driven by an atmospheric reanalysis or coupled to the COSMO-CLM2 regional atmospheric model. In those experiments, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics as well as the exchanges with the ocean and atmosphere are strongly perturbed. This perturbation is achieved by modifying snow and ice thermal conductivities, the vertical mixing in the ocean top layers, the effect of freshwater uptake and release upon sea ice growth and melt, ice dynamics, and surface albedo. We find that the evolution of sea ice extent during the ice advance season is largely independent of the direct effect of the perturbation and appears thus mainly controlled by initial state in summer and subsequent insolation changes. In contrast, the melting rate varies strongly between the experiments during the retreat, in particular if the surface albedo or sea ice transport are modified, demonstrating a strong contribution of those elements to the evolution of ice coverage through spring and summer. As with the advance phase, the retreat is also influenced by conditions at the beginning of the melt season in September. Atmospheric feedbacks enhance the model winter ice extent response to any of the perturbed processes, and the enhancement is strongest when the albedo is modified. The response of sea ice volume and extent to changes in entrainment of subsurface warm waters to the ocean surface is also greatly amplified by the coupling with the atmosphere.

regional atmosphere ocean sea ice model↗

An Approximate Kalman Filter for Ocean Data Assimilation; An Example with an Idealized Gulf Stream Model

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximations of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady-state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudo measurements is examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays, and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform a previous study that used an empirical nudging scheme. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

['Kalman↗

The Role of Oceanic Processes in the Initiation of Boreal Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Indian Ocean

Observational analyses and a hierarchy of ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments were performed to understand the influence of oceanic processes on the warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) prior to the convection initiation of boreal winter intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), in the equatorial Indian Ocean. We found 39 strong ISOs that passed over the Indian Ocean Warm Pool region during the November-April season of the 2001-2012 period. 17/39 ISO events initiated in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) before propagating eastward; the remaining events initiated in the southern Arabian Sea (6) or Warm Pool (16) regions. The SCTR event set was notable in that it contained more global-scale MJOs (71-76%), as defined by the RMM and OMI indices, than the WP events (25-44%). Additionally, ~24% (44%) of the SCTR (Warm Pool) events were preceded by strong oceanic process-induced SSTAs of similar magnitude to those of shortwave radiative and turbulent heat fluxes. The Arabian Sea events, however, were not associated with statistically significant SSTA signals prior to convection. Based on a mixed layer heat budget analysis, entrainment and upwelling reduction were the dominant oceanic processes contributing to the warming, in contrast with boreal summer, when horizontal advection dominated. We examined several case studies, including primary MJO events, where oceanic Rossby waves were associated with the entrainment and upwelling reduction. Two simple atmospheric boundary layer convergence models revealed that the SSTAs contributed at least half of the total convergence and suggested that the ocean dynamical effect was responsible for the majority of SSTA-forced convergence for those case studies. These results underscore the need for climate prediction models to accurately represent the ocean structure and processes to include the effects of oceanic predictors.

West, B. Jason↗

Acclimation of Phytoplankton Fe:C Ratios Dampens the Biogeochemical Response to Varying Atmospheric Deposition of Soluble Iron

Abstract Dissolved iron (dFe) plays an important role in regulating marine productivity. In high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions (>33% of the global ocean), iron is the primary growth limiting nutrient, and elsewhere iron can regulate nitrogen fixation by diazotrophs. The link between iron availability and carbon export is strongly dependent on the phytoplankton iron quotas or cellular Fe:C ratios. This ratio varies by more than an order of magnitude in the open ocean and is positively correlated with ambient dFe concentrations in field observations. Representing Fe:C ratios within models is necessary to investigate how ocean carbon cycling will interact with perturbations to iron cycling in a changing climate. The Community Earth System Model ocean component was modified to simulate dynamic, group‐specific, phytoplankton Fe:C that varies as a function of ambient iron concentration. The simulated Fe:C ratios improve the representation of the spatial trends in the observed Fe:C ratios. The acclimation of phytoplankton Fe:C ratios dampens the biogeochemical response to varying atmospheric deposition of soluble iron, compared to a fixed Fe:C ratio. However, varying atmospheric soluble iron supply has first order impacts on global carbon and nitrogen fluxes and on nutrient limitation spatial patterns. Our results suggest that pyrogenic Fe is a significant dFe source that rivals mineral dust inputs in some regions. Changes in dust flux and iron combustion sources (anthropogenic and wildfires) will modify atmospheric Fe inputs in the future. Accounting for dynamic phytoplankton iron quotas is critical for understanding ocean biogeochemistry and projecting its response to variations in atmospheric deposition.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Accelerated Rate of Sea Ice Decline in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

Abstract Arctic sea ice loss in response to a warming climate is assessed in 42 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Sea ice observations show a significant acceleration in the rate of decline commencing near the turn of the twenty-first century. It is our assertion that state-of-the-art climate models should qualitatively reflect this accelerated trend within the limitations of internal variability and observational uncertainty. Our analysis shows that individual CMIP6 simulations of sea ice depict a wide range of model spread on biases and anomaly trends both across models and among their ensemble members. While the CMIP6 multimodel mean captures the observed sea ice area (SIA) decline relatively well, an individual model’s ability to represent the acceleration in sea ice decline remains a challenge. Seventeen (40%) out of 42 CMIP6 models and 37 (13%) out of the total 286 ensemble members reasonably capture the observed trends and acceleration in SIA decline. In addition, a larger ensemble size appears to increase the odds for a model to include at least one ensemble member skillfully representing the accelerated SIA trends. Simulations of sea ice volume (SIV) show much larger spread and uncertainty than SIA; however, due to limited availability of sea ice thickness data, these are not as well constrained by observations. Finally, we find that models with more ocean heat transport simulate larger sea ice declines, which suggests an emergent constraint in CMIP6 ensembles. This relationship points to the need for better understanding and modeling of ice–ocean interactions, especially with respect to frazil ice growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Signorini, S.↗

Topography and tectonics of mid-oceanic ridge axes

Numerical fluid dynamic models of mid-oceanic ridge axes were constructed using distributions of material properties constrained by seismic studies and thermal calculations. The calculations indicate that spreading is passive except for forces caused by density differences due to thermal expansion and partial melt. Except for geometric differences due to temperature distribution, one set of mechanical properties can adequately explain central rifts of slow ridges and central peaks of fast ridges. Viscous head loss in the upwelling material dominates at low spreading rates where material ascends through a narrow conduit. Thermal expansion and partial melting dominate at high spreading rates where a wide low viscosity crustal magma chamber is present. The preferred rheology is 10 to the 20th poise for the upwelling lithosphere; less than 5 x 10 to the 17th for the crustal magma chamber and axial intrusion zone at fast ridges, and a yield stress of 200 bars for the lithosphere. The calculation correctly predicts the existence of central peaks at 'hot-spot' ridges, where seismic evidence indicates a large magma chamber.

Sleep, N. H.↗

A satellite technique for quantitatively mapping rainfall rates over the oceans

A theoretical model for calculating microwave radiative transfer in raining atmospheres is developed. These calculations are compared with microwave brightness temperatures at a wavelength of 1.55 cm measured by the Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) on the Nimbus-5 satellite and rain rates derived from WSR-57 meteorological radar measurements. A specially designed ground-based verification experiment was also performed, wherein upward-viewing microwave brightness temperature measurements at wavelengths of 1.55 and 0.81 cm were compared with directly measured rain rates. It is shown that, over ocean areas, brightness temperature measurements from ESMR may be interpreted in terms of rain rate with about an accuracy of a factor of 2 over the range 1 to 25 mm/hr rain rate.

Wilheit, T. T.↗