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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

LAI, EVI, NDVI, and kNDVI in 23 pantropical forests affected by 21 cyclones

Statement of purpose: Cyclones alter the function and composition of tropical forests, making effects of intensifying cyclones on carbon-rich forests a critical topic of study. Here, we quantified cyclone-induced damage and recovery of 21 cyclone disturbances affecting 23 pantropical forest sites between 1988-2017 utilizing leaf area index (LAI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and transformed NDVI (kNDVI) values from Google Earth Engine. Field observations collected in a meta-analysis (Bomfim et al., 2022, in review) were used to ground-truth and test effects of soil resource availability and disturbance factors on damage and recovery. This meta-analysis also served as the basis to begin vegetation index extraction, utilizing unique site and date combinations, from tropical forests effect by cyclone disturbances. We began collecting NDVI (5km resolution) from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Version 5 data product (Vermote, 2019) for all case studies included, 42. Next, we began extracting Landsat data from Landsat 4, 5, and 8, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey, in search of higher resolution data. We selected a 3 by 3 Landsat pixel area, leading to a 90m resolution data extraction. The specific imagery used includes Landsat 4 USGS Landsat 4 TM Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA (top of atmosphere) Reflectance, Landsat 5 USGS Landsat 5 TM (thematic mapper) Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance, and Landsat 8 USGS Landsat 8 Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance. Within Google Earth Engine, we selected the date and location (latitude and longitude), calculated NDVI, kNDVI, and EVI utilizing Landsat bands (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones), and extracted post- and pre-cyclone values for each case study to calculate cyclone-induced change in the vegetative index. Due to limited spatial resolution of Landsat remote sensing data, MODIS products were investigated next. First, the MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global 250m product was used to extract 250m EVI and NDVI (Didan, 2015) and then the MCD15A3H.006 MODIS Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-Day Global 500m product product was used to extract LAI 500m (Myneni et al., 2015). Pre- and post-cyclone values, change in the vegetative index, and standard deviation for all values are included in the main csv (see case_study_data.csv) for all vegetative indices collected, including LAI 500m, EVI 250m, NDVI 250m, NDVI 90m, kNDVI 90m, EVI 90m, and NDVI 5km. Lastly, recovery values were calculated utilizing a standardization method (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones) and recovery values for MODIS (see MODIS_recovery.csv) and Landsat (Landsat_recovery.csv) data are included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diffusion-Model-Assisted Supervised Learning of Generative Models for Density Estimation

Here, we present a supervised learning framework of training generative models for density estimation. Generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, and variational auto-encoders (VAEs), are usually considered as unsupervised learning models, because labeled data are usually unavailable for training. Despite the success of the generative models, there are several issues with the unsupervised training, e.g., requirement of reversible architectures, vanishing gradients, and training instability. To enable supervised learning in generative models, we utilize the score-based diffusion model to generate labeled data. Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to learn the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation method. This approach uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimators to directly approximate the score function at any spatial-temporal location in solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE), corresponding to the reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE). This approach can offer both high accuracy and substantial time savings in neural network training. Once the labeled data are generated, we can train a simple, fully connected neural network to learn the generative model in the supervised manner. Compared with existing normalizing flow models, our method does not require the use of reversible neural networks and avoids the computation of the Jacobian matrix. Compared with existing diffusion models, our method does not need to solve the reverse-time SDE to generate new samples. As a result, the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. We demonstrate the performance of our method by applying it to a set of 2D datasets as well as real data from the University of California Irvine (UCI) repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Is Mini Beam Ready for Human Trials? Results of Randomized Study of Treating De-Novo Brain Tumors in Canines Using Linear Accelerator Generated Mini Beams

The main challenge in treating malignant brain neoplasms lies in eradicating the tumor while minimizing treatmentrelated damage. Conventional radiation treatments are associated with considerable side effects. Synchrotron generated micro-beam radiation (SMBRT) has shown to preserve brain architecture while killing tumor cells, however physical characteristics and limited facility access restrict its use. We have created a new clinical device which produces mini beams on a linear accelerator, to provide a new type of treatment called mini-beam radiation therapy (MBRT). The objective of this study is to compare the treatment outcomes of linear accelerator based MBRT versus standard radiation treatment (SRT), to evaluate the tumor response and the treatment-related changes in the normal brain with respect to each treatment type. Pet dogs with de-novo brain tumors were accrued for treatment. Dogs were randomized between standard fractionated stereotactic (9 Gy in 3 fractions) radiation treatment vs. a single fraction of MBRT (26 Gy mean dose). Dogs were monitored after treatment for clinical assessment and imaging. When the dogs were euthanized, a veterinary pathologist assessed the radiation changes and tumor response. We accrued 16 dogs, 8 dogs in each treatment arm. In the MBRT arm, 71% dogs achieved complete pathological remission. The radiation-related changes were all confined to the target region. Structural damage was not observed in the beam path outside of the target region. In contrast, none of the dogs in control group achieved remission and the treatment related damage was more extensive. Therapeutic superiority was observed with MBRT, including both tumor control and the normal structural preservation. The MBRT findings are suggestive of an immune related mechanism which is absent in standard treatment. These findings together with the widespread availability of clinical linear accelerators make MBRT a promising research topic to explore further treatment and clinical trial opportunities.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Complex Fault Geometry of the 2020 M ww 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence

On 15 May 2020 an M ww 6.5 earthquake occurred beneath the Monte Cristo Range in the Mina Deflection region of western Nevada. Rapid deployment of eight temporary seismic stations enabled detailed analysis of its productive and slowly decaying aftershock sequence (p=0.8), which included ~18,000 autodetected events in 3.5 months. Double-difference, waveform-based relative relocation of 16,714 earthquakes reveals a complex network of faults, many of which cross the inferred 35-km-long east–northeast-striking, left-lateral mainshock rupture. Seismicity aligns with left-lateral, right-lateral, and normal mechanism moment tensors of 128 of the largest earthquakes. The mainshock occurred near the middle of the aftershock zone at the intersection of two distinct zones of seismicity. In the western section, numerous subparallel, shallow, north-northeast-striking faults form a broad flower-structure-like fault mesh that coalesces at depth into a near-vertical, left-lateral fault. We infer the near-vertical fault to be a region of significant slip in the mainshock and an eastward extension of the left-lateral Candelaria fault. Near the mainshock hypocenter, seismicity occurs on a northeast-striking, west-dipping structure that extends north from the eastern Columbus Salt Marsh normal fault. Together, these two intersecting structures bound the Columbus Salt Marsh tectonic basin. East of this intersection and the mainshock hypocenter, seismicity occurs in a narrow, near-vertical, east-northeast-striking fault zone through to its eastern terminus. At the eastern end, the aftershock zone broadens and extends northwest toward the southern extension of the northwest-striking, right-lateral Petrified Springs fault system. The eastern section hosts significantly fewer aftershocks than the western section, but has more moment release. We infer that shallow aftershocks throughout the system highlight fault-fracture meshes that connect mapped fault systems at depth. Here, comparing earthquake data with surface ruptures and a simple geodetic fault model sheds light on the complexity of this recent M 6.5 Walker Lane earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Third-Order Resonance Compensation at the FNAL Recycler Ring

The Recycler Ring (RR) at the Fermilab Accelerator Complex performs slip-stacking on 8 GeV protons, doubling the beam intensity delivered to the Main Injector (MI). At MI, the beam is accelerated to 120 GeV and delivered to the high energy neutrino experiments. Femilab’s Proton Improvement Plan II (PIP-II) will require the Recycler to store 50% more beam. Simulations have shown that the space charge tune shift at this new intensity will lead to the excitation of multiple resonance lines. Specifically, this study looks at normal sextupole lines 3 Q_{x}=76 and Q_{x}+2Q_{y}=74, plus skew sextupole lines 3 Q_{y}=73 and 2 Q_{x}+Q_{y}=75. Dedicated normal and skew sextupoles have been installed in order to compensate for these resonance lines. By measuring and calculating the Resonance Driving Terms (RDT), this study shows how each of the resonance lines can be compensated independently. Furthermore, this study shows and discusses initial investigations into compensating multiple lines simultaneously.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simultaneous Compensation of Third-Order Resonances at the FNAL Recycler Ring

Third-order resonance lines will have a detrimental effect on the high-intensity operation of the Recycler Ring (RR), under the current Proton Improvement Plan (PIP-II) for the Fermilab Accelerator Complex. Increasing intensity will increase space charge effects, leading to the excitation of normal and skew sextupole lines. Dedicated normal and skew sextupoles have been installed in order to mitigate the effect of these resonance lines. By measuring the response matrix of the third-order Resonance Driving Terms (RDTs) to the currents of these dedicated elements, this study shows how several resonance lines can be compensated simultaneously. Resonance compensation is experimentally verified through loss maps and emittance growth measurements using the Ion Profile Monitor (IPM) system in the Recycler.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CW copper injector for SRF industrial cryomodules

Compact SRF industrial linacs can provide unique parameters of the beam (>1 MW and >1-10 MeV) hardly achievable by normal conducting linacs within limited space. SRF technology was prohibitively expensive until the development of conduction cooling which opened the way for compact stand alone SRF systems suitable for industrial and research applications. Limited cooling capacity puts strict requirements on the beam parameters with zero losses of the beam on the SRF cavity walls. This implies strict requirements on the beam energy to be accepted by the cryomodule and most importantly the beam bunching with zero particles in between. We designed a CW normal conducting RF injector which consists of a gridded RF gun integrated with a first cell of a copper booster cavity to satisfy these requirements. Here we present a complete design of a booster cavity including beam dynamics, RF, thermomechanical and engineering design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-routine adjustments – towards standardizing M&V approach for quantifying the effects of static factors

The success of an energy management program relies on ensuring that the energy savings can be verified with an adequate level of certainty. Energy savings cannot be directly measured and hence have to be deduced by comparing the pre-retrofit energy consumption with post-retrofit energy consumption data adjusted to account for differences in conditions. These adjustments are needed, since conditions that influence energy consumption may not stay the same between pre- and postinstallation phase of the project. These adjustments can often be routine when accounting for factors like production volume and weather that are expected to change and are included in the energy consumption adjustment model. Existing measurement and verification (M&V) resources and guidance mostly concentrate on developing models for routine adjustment of one or more factors that normally change. On the other hand, there are factors (static) like product mix, operating hours, gross square area, etc. that are assumed to stay constant during normal conditions. However, in order to adapt to dynamic market conditions, the industries are forced to react thereby leading to changes to these static factors. Identifying these static factors that warrant adjustment, called non-routine event, along with quantifying their effect on energy consumption can be complex and lack of proper guidance can exacerbate this issue. This paper reviews some of the current work in terms of how non-routine events are defined, characterized, detected and quantified based on a review of existing M&V guidelines, protocols and other relevant literature. This work also reviewed some of the existing non-routine events and adjustment practices to understand how these different aspects are addressed along with a discussion on some of the key challenges and gaps in the current guidance.

Earni, Shankar↗
DOE OSTI2026

NeuNorm

NeuNorm is a scipp-based Python library for neutron imaging normalization and time-of-flight (TOF) data processing at Oak Ridge National Laboratory imaging facilities (MARS at HFIR and VENUS at SNS). NeuNorm 2.0 is a complete, scipp-based rewrite of the original NeuNorm normalization library, adding HDF5 output, automatic uncertainty propagation, and TOF/event-mode processing.

Zhang, Chen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Higher spin partition functions via the quasinormal mode method in de Sitter quantum gravity

In this note we compute the 1-loop partition function of spin- s s fields on Euclidean de Sitter space S^{2n+1} S 2 n + 1 using the quasinormal mode method. Instead of computing the quasinormal mode frequencies from scratch, we use the analytic continuation prescription L_{\text{AdS}}\to iL_{\text{dS}} L AdS → i L dS , appearing in the dS/CFT correspondence, and Wick rotate the normal mode frequencies of fields on thermal \text{AdS}_{2n+1} AdS 2 n + 1 into the quasinormal mode frequencies of fields on de Sitter space. We compare the quasinormal mode and heat kernel methods of calculating 1-loop determinants, finding exact agreement, and furthermore explicitly relate these methods via a sum over the conformal dimension. We discuss how the Wick rotation of normal modes on thermal \text{AdS}_{2n+1} AdS 2 n + 1 can be generalized to calculating 1-loop partition functions on the thermal spherical quotients S^{2n+1}/\mathbb{Z}_{p} S 2 n + 1 / ℤ p . We further show that the quasinormal mode frequencies encode the group theoretic structure of the spherical spacetimes in question, analogous to the analysis made for thermal AdS in [1-3] .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular Imaging of Matrix Metalloproteinase-2 in Atherosclerosis Using a Smart Multifunctional PET/MRI Nanoparticle

Matrix metalloproteinases from macrophages are important intraplaque components that play pivotal roles in plaque progression and regression. This study sought to develop a novel multifunctional positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) contrast agents based on MMP-2 cleavable nanoparticles to noninvasive assessment of MMP-2 activity in mouse carotid atherosclerotic plaques. Macrophage-rich vascular lesions were induced by carotid ligation plus high-fat diet and streptozotocin-induced diabetes in CL57/BL6 mice. To render iron oxide nanoparticles (IONP) specific for the extracellular MMP-2, the magnetic nanoparticle base material has been derivatized with 1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4,7-triacetic acid (NOTA) for the nuclear tracer 64 Cu labeling and the MMP-2-cleavable peptide modified with polyethylene glycol 2000, yielding a multi-modality reporter ( 64 Cu-NOTA-IONP@MMP2c-PEG2K, MMP2cNPs) for PET/MR imaging. Small animal PET imaging and biodistribution data revealed that MMP2cNPs exhibited remarkable plaque uptake (3.06 ± 0.87% ID/g and 1.83 ± 0.28% ID/g at 4 and 12 h, respectively). And MMP2cNPs were rapidly cleared from the contralateral normal carotid artery, resulting in excellent plaque-to-normal carotid artery contrasts. Furthermore, in vivo MRI showed a preferential accumulation of MMP2cNPs in atherosclerotic lesions compared with the non-cleavable reference compound, MMP2ncNPs. In addition, histological analyses revealed iron accumulations in the carotid atherosclerotic plaque, in colocalization with MMP-2 expression and macrophages. Using a combination of innovative imaging modalities, in this study, we demonstrate the feasibility of applying the novel smart MMP2cNPs as a PET/MR hybrid imaging contrast agent for detection of MMP-2 in atherosclerotic plaque in vivo.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

NREL Pyrheliometer Comparisons: September 23-October 4, 2019 (NPC-2019)

Accurate measurements of direct normal (beam) solar irradiance from pyrheliometers are important for developing and deploying solar energy conversion systems, improving our understanding of the Earth's energy budget for climate change studies, and for other science and technology applications involving solar flux. Providing these measurements places many demands on the quality system used by the operator of commercially available radiometers. Maintaining accurate radiometer calibrations that are traceable to an international standard is the first step in producing research-quality solar irradiance measurements. In 1977, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established the World Radiometric Reference (WRR) as the international standard for the measurement of direct normal solar irradiance (Frohlich 1991). The WRR is an internationally recognized, detector-based measurement standard determined by the collective performance of six electrically self-calibrated absolute cavity radiometers comprising the World Standard Group (WSG). Various countries, including the United States, have contributed these specialized radiometers to the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos - World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) to establish the WSG.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigations on the Thermal-hydraulic Behavior of Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding Materials

Since the 2011 Fukushima accident, significant research has been devoted to developing accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding materials. These investigations have mostly focused on the ability to resist runaway steam oxidation and retain mechanical strength and structural integrity under thermal shocks. However, much remains unknown about the materials’ thermal-hydraulic behavior, particularly under light-water reactor (LWR) operating conditions. Two phenomena that determine safety margins in both normal and off-normal operating conditions - i.e., the critical heat flux (CHF) and Leidenfrost point (LFP) temperature - have not been investigated thoroughly for ATF materials. Surface properties, such as wettability and roughness, are known to influence pool and flow boiling CHF, as well as the LFP temperature. However, little is known about the surface wettability of ATF materials, particularly at LWR pressure and temperature. Little has been done on flow-boiling CHF and quenching heat transfer, especially for droplet quenching. Nonetheless, it is known that CHF in transient conditions, e.g., an exponentially escalating power transient, can be significantly different from that expected in steady-state operation. Very few studies have investigated transient CHF, either on ATF materials or under LWR pressure and temperature. The thorough understanding of transient CHF under prototypical reactor conditions will benefit not only the deployment of ATF but also the upcoming national efforts to study transient ATF behavior in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory. In summary, as a part of ATF development efforts, there is an urgent need to understand how and how much these materials may affect two-phase heat transfer phenomena in nuclear reactor conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Liquid helium fluid dynamics studies. Final Technical Report

Future high energy physics accelerators depend on a number of advanced technologies to open the many doors of scientific discovery. Among these advanced technologies, superconducting magnets and superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities are the backbone of the accelerator and detector systems. But all these low temperature systems depend critically on successful and reliable operation of their supporting technologies, among which the liquid helium cooling system is of the utmost importance. To improve the quality of these systems both in terms of efficiency and reliability, a robust helium cryogenics research and development (R&D) effort is required. The proposed research to be conducted by the FSU cryogenics group aims to produce fundamental knowledge that meets this R&D need. The projects that we have completed over the past grant period at Florida State University consist of experimental research on liquid helium fluid dynamics and heat transfer problems relevant to the development of future superconducting particle physics accelerators. Liquid helium is the coolant used in all such facilities and in many of these facilities He II (the low temperature phase of liquid helium also known as superfluid helium) is preferred due to its outstanding heat transfer characteristics. The work consists of two main experimental studies that probe both fundamental as well as practical aspects of liquid helium cooling. The first is a broad and fundamental study of the heat and mass transfer processes that can occur during a sudden catastrophic loss of vacuum (SCLV) incident in a superconducting accelerator. SCLV refers to the remote but extremely critical accident scenario where atmospheric pressure air is allowed to flood into the insulating vacuum system and impinge on the liquid helium cooled surfaces in the accelerator. Safe performance and recovery from such accidents is essential to the reliable operation of superconducting accelerators. The dynamics of this process is quite complex and so our approach is to conduct a series of well-orchestrated experiments that probe the various physical phenomena that can occur during an SCLV event. The experiments are coupled with analytic and numerical analysis in an effort to develop a general understanding of the process and to assist with future accelerator design and development. The second activity is directed toward fundamental understanding of heat and mass transfer in He II, which is essential to the design of superconducting magnets and radio frequency cavities in accelerators. The work consists of flow visualization of the dynamics of He II using laser assisted techniques. Two complementary techniques are used to study the fundamentals of the turbulent state. The first technique uses neutrally buoyant solid hydrogen particles to probe the flow fields of the superfluid and normal fluid components. The other technique uses laser excited He2* molecules as tracers of the normal fluid motion within the He II. The activities also included an effort to use visualization techniques to locate transient hot spots in radio frequency superconducting cavities. Such work provides valuable information about the heat transfer process in He II and its impact on the performance of superconducting devices. The research effort at Florida State University is not directly in support of a specific high energy physics experiment or facility. Rather, the work is general and coordinated with HEP accelerator laboratories to provide valuable insight that can assist with future accelerator development.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s), and combination (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to 5 m/s). The project was divided into a Feasibility Study and Comparative Study. The objectives for the Feasibility Study were to develop an installation strategy, redesign a previous iteration of a UAD to improve performance and weatherization, and test the effectiveness of the deterrents on bat activity. The Feasibility Study was intended to work out potential issues using a relatively small number of devices prior to manufacturing and installing numerous devices for a larger-scale comparative study. The division of the project into these separate studies was based on previous experience and the challenges of assessing the capabilities of an untested UAD. During the initial development and manufacturing of the UAD, NRG Systems decided to use a piezoelectric transducer rather than an electrostatic transducer, which was used by a previous device (i.e. Deaton UAD). NRG Systems conducted lab testing (i.e., IP67 or Ingress Protection) to ensure no water or dust ingress. In addition, shock/drop trials and variations in temperature exposure were conducted as part of the reliability testing. NRG Systems also developed a communications system to allow for continuous performance monitoring of the UADs. For the Feasibility Study, we installed 6 UADs on each of 2 Gamesa G90 2-MW wind turbines (Turbine 14 and 8) at the South Chestnut Wind Energy Facility, Pennsylvania and monitored activity under control and treatment (i.e. Deterrent) conditions using thermal video monitoring. There are two major sources of variation in bat activity (beyond the anticipated treatment effect): 1) environment around the turbines might inherently favor more activity at one than the other; 2) weather conditions on any given night or within season difference (e.g., migration later during the study period) might favor more activity on some nights than on other nights. Because we could only monitor two turbines on any night, we sought to control the potential influences of these two sources by alternating the turbine on which deterrents were activated each night. If there were no loss of data due to technical failures, this design would result in an equal number of deterrent and control nights at each turbine through the monitoring period, balancing the effects of both sources of variation. We compared the time bats spent and the number of events that occurred in overlapping cameras FOV as an indicator of risk, since 80% of the overlapping FOV of the cameras was in the RSA. Equipment failures, majority due to lightning, resulted in only 17 nights with useable data, with unbalanced treatment assignment within turbines and uneven distribution of treatment assignment throughout the observational period. This resulted in a confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal change. Deterrent treatment was measured at Turbine 14 on only 2 of the first 8 usable nights (spanning the period from 8/18-9/17), whereas 6 times on Turbine 8. From 9/18-927, deterrent was on at Turbine 14 on 6 of the remaining 10 nights, and 4 on Turbine 8. We recorded a total of 1,057 bats and observed a reduction in number of events and duration of events at the UAD-activated turbine when it was Turbine 14. When Turbine 8 had the UAD activated, we observed no difference in number or duration of events. Variation between turbines is not unusual and can cause issues when study designs have no true replication, i.e., multiple turbines per treatment. Within-turbine differences suggested a trend for reduced activity when UADs were activated, particularly for Turbine 14. These results may be caused by the overall higher bat activity at Turbine 8 and confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal trends. We mapped 58 bat events in 3-dimensional space (3D), 30 and 28 events during control and treatment conditions, respectively. We observed bats crossing the rotor plane under both control and treatment conditions and observed a total of 40 confirmed or near-collisions (i.e., target close to blade but no visual confirmation of a strike) out of a total of 1,491 medium and high confidence bat observations (880 control, 611 at treatment). Twice as many collisions/possible collisions were observed during control conditions. Given the challenges with the equipment and potential confounding of the data (i.e., different activity levels at the two wind turbines), we were unable to determine whether this initial turbine placement and orientation was optimal. Given no new information on how best to install the devices, we elected to use the same placement and orientation for the comparative study. For the Comparative Study, the objectives were to investigate the relative mortality rates among 4 treatments. We searched the area within 90 m of each turbine daily to recover the highest number of fresh fatalities possible. We were unable to detect a clear reduction in mortality from deterrents alone for any individual species. Surprisingly, mortality rate of the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) was estimated to be 1.3–4.2 times as much when turbines were operating normally and UADs were on than when UADs were off. Reduction in mortality of all bat species combined due to curtailment of turbines was estimated to be between 0%–38%. This effect was nullified when, in addition to curtailment, UADs were on, with 95% confidence interval ranging from a 45% reduction to a 36% increase in mortality. This was likely due to the large proportion of eastern red bats in the total carcass population. Mortality of all low-frequency echolocating bats combined (i.e. hoary bat [L. cinereus], big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus], silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) relative to control was lower when curtailed (95% CI: 0%–74%), but the addition of UADs had no detectable effect (95%CI: 13%–79%). The combined treatment reduced mortality in silver-haired bats relative to control by 11%–99%, compared to curtailment (81% reduction–67% increase) or deterrent (82% reduction–67% increase) alone. Because silver-haired bats comprised a large proportion of low-frequency calling bats found during this study, a similar effect was seen for that group. The higher mortality observed for eastern red bats at UAD compared to control could have been caused by several factors, such as the effective range of the UAD, particularly at higher frequencies, behavior, positioning of the devices on the nacelle, or a combination of these. We used 3D thermal videography to compare control and UAD bat behavior from two turbines using a total of 203 3D bat-tracks across 34 nights. We recorded a similar number of bat-tracks between treatment groups, with 51% and 49% for control and UAD, respectively. Due to potential differences in bat behavior around spinning vs stationary turbine blades, we examined UAD effectiveness separately for non-operating turbines (feathered below cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s) and operating (normal operation above wind speed of 3.5 m/s). We found a higher proportion of bat-tracks at operating turbines (82%) compared to non-operating turbines (18%), although this does not account for overall time turbines were operating versus not. At non-operating turbines the UAD appears to be effective at reducing the amount of time, flight length, and number of passes through the rotor plane, compared to control. In addition, we found bats approached turbines similarly between control and treatment turbines, with 61% of control and 63% of UAD bat-tracks originating leeward of the hub. In contrast, at operating turbines, we saw little change in bat behavior in response to UADs. For example, we found an increase in the average duration of bat-tracks between non-operating and operating turbines for UAD but at control turbines we found average duration decreased once turbines became operational. Both control and UAD had a high proportion of bat-tracks that crossed the rotor plane (i.e., collision risk) originate from the windward side when turbines were operational 65% to 92%, respectively. Given that the UAD devices closest to the blades were orientated parallel to the blades, its possible bats were not exposed to the signal until they were close to the turbine blades, as suggested by the slightly higher mean duration within 5 meters of the blades for UAD turbines. Future research should consider concentrating UAD intensity on the areas of risk (i.e. blades) with enough buffer to allow bats to react to the sound before entering the rotor-swept area (RSA). In addition, investigating the potential of installing UAD units windward of the turbine blades (e.g. a hub-mounted UAD), particularly since even under control conditions, a relatively high proportion (65%) of crosses through the blade plane originated windward. 3D thermal videography provided valuable information on future testing strategies (e.g. device placement, UAD orientation) to improve UAD effectiveness when bats are at risk (i.e., operating wind turbines). Across the entire project we experienced issues with the operation and communication with the UADs. Most of the issues occurred during the Feasibility Study and were resolved prior to the Comparability Study. Additional challenges surfaced during the Comparability Study but were remedied immediately and are thought to have little impact on the results. We had logistical constraints at the project that limited our ability use traditional methods in our camera calibration. Several calibrations showed inaccurate scales, which may have been related to inadequate spatial coverage of “points” in the camera calibration volume. Because we were using actual video recordings of bats at a wind turbine, the behavior of bats could have concentrated “points” in specific areas of the turbine (i.e. leeward of nacelle), and limited “points” in other areas, resulting in camera calibration issues. We have plans to address these inconsistencies and improving the software and related methodologies by early 2020.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Helium Bubble Growth and Retention Characteristics in Aging Palladium Tritide

The helium-related characteristics of aged palladium tritide, including tritium loss, the formation of He bubbles from tritium decay-induced He atoms, and He thermal desorption behavior are computed using a continuum model of bubble evolution that incorporates the log-normal bubble spacing distribution deduced from 3 He nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measurements. This spacing distribution produces significant differences between mean (expectation) values of the bubble size and pressure and the average (median) values of these aging characteristics obtained by a previous calculation. The new calculations find much of the He is retained in a large quantity of smaller bubbles with higher bubble pressures, improving the overall stability of the bubbles and extending the age of He retention. By contrast, the integrated tritide material characteristics of swelling and tritium pressure are found relatively insensitive to details of the bubble spacing distribution. Inter-bubble fracture is predicted to begin with small, closely-spaced bubbles and progress to include larger bubbles near the onset of rapid He release. The critical concentration for this onset increases almost linearly with material tensile strength and decreases with shear modulus. Release of He from the aging solid is modeled as a growing network of fractured inter-bubble ligaments. For small particle or small grain material, the physical size of the fracture cluster, relative to the material dimensions, becomes important. In contrast with normal aging, inter-bubble fracture occurring during thermal desorption appears to begin with large, widely-spaced bubbles, indicating elevated temperature techniques may be of limited use for evaluating development of the bubble fracture network.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗