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NASA NTRS2012

VLBI: A Fascinating Technique for Geodesy and Astrometry

Since the 1970s Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has proven to be a primary space-geodetic technique by determining precise coordinates on the Earth, by monitoring the variable Earth rotation and orientation with highest precision, and by deriving many other parameters of the Earth system. VLBI provides an important linkage to astronomy through, for instance, the determination of very precise coordinates of extragalactic radio sources. Additionally, it contributes to determining parameters of relativistic and cosmological models. After a short review of the history of geodetic VLBI and a summary of recent results, this paper describes future perspectives of this fascinating technique. The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS), as a service of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) and the International Astronomical Union (IAU), is well on its way to fully defining a next generation VLBI system, called VLBI2010. The goals of the new system are to achieve on scales up to the size of the Earth an accuracy of 1 mm in position and of 0.1 mm/year in velocity. Continuous observations shall be carried out 24 h per day 7 days per week in the future with initial results to be delivered within 24 h after taking the data. Special sessions, e.g. for monitoring the Earth rotation parameters, will provide the results in near real-time. These goals require a completely new technical and conceptual design of VLBI measurements. Based on extensive simulation studies, strategies have been developed by the IVS to significantly improve its product accuracy through the use of a network of small (approx 12 m) fast-slewing antennas. A new method for generating high precision delay measurements as well as improved methods for handling biases related to radio source structure, system electronics, and deformations of the antenna structures has been developed. Furthermore, as of January 2012, the construction of ten new VLBI2010 sites has been funded, with good prospects for one dozen more antennas, which will improve the geographical distribution of geodetic VLBI sites on Earth and provide an important step toward a global VLBI2010 network. Within this paper, the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) of the IAG will also be introduced and the contribution of VLBI to GGOS will be described.

Geodesy↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Atmospheric Delay Statistics from Deep Space Network Arrays and Nearby Test Interferometers

Several techniques have been explored and demonstrated that allow for greater data return on space-to-ground links. Among these techniques, arraying several smaller diameter dish antennas together is one method used in several arenas. These arrays can achieve larger effective area and gain than are available from a single larger antenna. This technique is routinely used by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) at 8.4 GHz where the incoming signals are much weaker than those experienced by the near-Earth satellite community. When considering arraying at much higher frequencies such as 32 GHz deep-space Ka-band, the phase alignment of the individual antenna signals is significantly disrupted by atmospheric turbulence. Since 2012, several downlink array demonstrations have been conducted using 32 GHz carrier signals emitted by the deep space probes Cassini and Kepler. Site test interferometers (STIs) that receive signals from geostationary satellites have been deployed at all three DSN tracking complexes for long-term monitoring of atmospheric delay fluctuations. In a previous DSN array demonstration study involving the Cassini spacecraft, it was shown that statistics of the adjusted STI phase fluctuations matched the statistics of concurrent array demonstration phase fluctuations. These adjustments accounted for differences in antenna separation, elevation angle and spacecraft frequencies. The STI antenna separations were about 200 m and the DSN antenna separations were about 300 m. These adjustments made use of the thick-layer turbulence model that was applicable to the Goldstone desert climate during the summer months for which the data were acquired. In this paper, we report on the results of additional array demonstrations involving the Kepler spacecraft and compare the adjusted STI phase fluctuations with those seen by a nearby two-element array of 34 m diameter antennas tracking Kepler’s 32 GHz signal at the Goldstone, California and Madrid, Spain DSN sites. We also discuss results from a demonstration using an array over a longer 12.5 km baseline. The Cassini and Kepler array demonstrations were found to validate the long term statistics acquired from several years of STI data as well as the models used to adjust the statistics for the conditions of an array. These statistics represent reliable estimates of the phase fluctuations that would be seen by an array tracking a deep space signal after applying appropriate adjustments for a given array configuration, elevation angle profile and observing frequency.

Morabito, David D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The VLBA correlator: Real-time in the distributed era

The correlator is the signal processing engine of the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). Radio signals are recorded on special wideband (128 Mb/s) digital recorders at the 10 telescopes, with sampling times controlled by hydrogen maser clocks. The magnetic tapes are shipped to the Array Operations Center in Socorro, New Mexico, where they are played back simultaneously into the correlator. Real-time software and firmware controls the playback drives to achieve synchronization, compute models of the wavefront delay, control the numerous modules of the correlator, and record FITS files of the fringe visibilities at the back-end of the correlator. In addition to the more than 3000 custom VLSI chips which handle the massive data flow of the signal processing, the correlator contains a total of more than 100 programmable computers, 8-, 16- and 32-bit CPUs. Code is downloaded into front-end CPU's dependent on operating mode. Low-level code is assembly language, high-level code is C running under a RT OS. We use VxWorks on Motorola MVME147 CPU's. Code development is on a complex of SPARC workstations connected to the RT CPU's by Ethernet. The overall management of the correlation process is dependent on a database management system. We use Ingres running on a Sparcstation-2. We transfer logging information from the database of the VLBA Monitor and Control System to our database using Ingres/NET. Job scripts are computed and are transferred to the real-time computers using NFS, and correlation job execution logs and status flow back by the route. Operator status and control displays use windows on workstations, interfaced to the real-time processes by network protocols. The extensive network protocol support provided by VxWorks is invaluable. The VLBA Correlator's dependence on network protocols is an example of the radical transformation of the real-time world over the past five years. Real-time is becoming more like conventional computing. Paradoxically, 'conventional' computing is also adopting practices from the real-time world: semaphores, shared memory, light-weight threads, and concurrency. This appears to be a convergence of thinking.

Wells, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ultra-Wideband, Dual-Polarized, Beam-Steering P-Band Array Antenna

A dual-polarized, wide-bandwidth (200 MHz for one polarization, 100 MHz for the orthogonal polarization) antenna array at P-band was designed to be driven by NASA's EcoSAR digital beam former. EcoSAR requires two wide P-band antenna arrays mounted on the wings of an aircraft, each capable of steering its main beam up to 35deg off-boresight, allowing the twin radar beams to be steered at angles to the flight path. The science requirements are mainly for dual-polarization capability and a wide bandwidth of operation of up to 200 MHz if possible, but at least 100 MHz with high polarization port isolation and low cross-polarization. The novel design geometry can be scaled with minor modifications up to about four times higher or down to about half the current design frequencies for any application requiring a dual-polarized, wide-bandwidth steerable antenna array. EcoSAR is an airborne interferometric P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) research application for studying two- and three-dimensional fine-scale measurements of terrestrial ecosystem structure and biomass, which will ultimately aid in the broader study of the carbon cycle and climate change. The two 2×8 element Pband antenna arrays required by the system will be separated by a baseline of about 25 m, allowing for interferometry measurements. The wide 100-to- 200-MHz bandwidth dual-polarized beams employed will allow the determination of the amount of biomass and even tree height on the ground. To reduce the size of the patches along the boresight dimension in order to fit them into the available space, two techniques were employed. One technique is to add slots along the edges of each patch where the main electric currents are expected to flow, and the other technique is to bend the central part of the patch away from the ground plane. The latter also facilitates higher mechanical rigidity. The high port isolation of more than 40 dB was achieved by employing a highly symmetrical feed mechanism for each pair of elements: three apertures coupling to the patch elements were placed along the two symmetry lines of the antenna element pair. Two apertures were used in tandem to excite two of the stacked patch elements for one polarization; the other was used to excite one element from one side and the other element from the other side, opposite in phase, taking care of the remaining polarization. The apertures narrow down to a small gap where they are excited by a crossing microstrip line to prevent any asymmetrical excitation of the two sides of the aperture gap, minimizing port-to-port coupling. Using patches that are non-planar leads to higher mechanical rigidity and smaller patch sizes to fit into the available space. Aperture coupling minimizes direct metal-to-metal connections. Using an aperture coupling feed mechanism results in a feed network for two antenna elements with a total of three feed points, plus one simple in-phase combiner to reduce it to two ports. It greatly reduces the complexity of the alternative, but more conventional, way of feeding a pair of two dual-polarized elements with high port isolation.

duToit, Cornelis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrical and Thermal Load Impacts of Three District Heating and Cooling Designs for an Existing Community in Washington, DC

District energy systems that provide building heating and cooling are a promising option to provide low-cost, energy efficient heating and cooling solutions for communities. As some buildings move to electrified heating designs, there may be significant increases in electric grid demand, particularly in the winter. District energy systems may be able to help reduce these high electrical demands on the electric grid, while also providing decreased overall energy consumption with an increased flexibility in electrical energy usage. To evaluate and compare district options for district-based heating and cooling, an existing neighborhood of Washington, DC consisting of 35 existing buildings was selected as a case study. This study models and compares a fourth generation (4G) district heating and cooling systems that provide hot and chilled water from a central plant directly to each prosumer and a fifth generation (5G) district heating and cooling systems that provide near-ambient water via geothermal boreholes to interface with an energy transfer station with a heat pump at each prosumer. These district systems are compared against a baseline of the non-connected buildings with their self-contained and current HVAC systems. The neighborhood was selected as a good candidate for a district system for its diversity of loads (mix of different commercial and property types) and the availability of building characteristics. URBANopt District Energy Systems (DES) was used to model the buildings and create initial Modelica models for the district systems. Finally, the DES models were tuned and simulated in Dymola, and the outputs were post-processed for verification and to calculate the electrical and thermal grid impact metrics. This is the first documentation of this workflow and its complete analysis. The three designed systems are compared via their grid metrics including: total energy consumption, electrical demand peak loads, daily peak-to-valley ratios, and system ramping. A detailed discussion is provided about how each system impacts and interacts with the electric grid.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

COGIHTO: Comprehensive Geothermal Integrated HVAC Retrofits in Disadvantaged Communities

Geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) systems offer one of the most efficient approaches to provide space conditioning and water heating in buildings. Due to the relatively stable temperature of the ground year-round, these systems can provide an efficient solution to decarbonize heating systems. Yet this technology has faced limited market adoption due to its high first cost. This project seeks to address this barrier by designing a community GHC system at a public housing development in New York, taking advantage of load diversity (in terms of the timing and amount of heating / cooling used per person) that a larger community offers to reduce the size and thus first cost of a GHC system. Project success would result in societal benefit from reduced energy and fossil fuel use, reduced local emissions, and improved comfort, which would positively impact the health and well-being this community. This report presents the findings from Phase 1 project supported by the Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office and includes the technical design of a GHC at a public housing development in New York. To support the success of a potential deployment of a GHC system, the team conducted community engagement and prepared an assessment of the local workforce needs. The project team, led by EPRI, considered a subset of NYCHA housing developments that were previously identified by NYCHA as suitable for GHC retrofits. This report presents the site selection criteria the team developed and the overall score assigned to each of the eight developments considered. One site was selected for focus of the technical design: Stapleton Houses in Staten Island, a mid-size development with roughly 700 apartments across 6 buildings. The site has an existing hot water hydronic loop served by natural gas boilers for space heating and water heating. The technical design partner assessed baseline energy consumption at the site and established thermal models of the apartment buildings to assist in the design. The team considered several GHC system configurations and selected a hybrid geothermal design fed from water-source heat pumps with auxiliary gas boilers in a central plant. This design best leveraged the existing site configuration and minimized costs due to additional electrical infrastructure upgrades. The report also details the feedback received from community engagement efforts and the findings from the workforce needs assessment and workforce transition plan. Members of the site maintenance staff and the resident advisory council were interviewed for their input and feedback about both the site’s existing heating/cooling infrastructure and how a construction project would impact resident life. This feedback was taken into consideration when completing the geothermal system design. Research was conducted into existing workforce development opportunities available to NYCHA residents. A workforce development plan was established using information from NYCHA’s resident economic empowerment and sustainability group, along with training material and curriculum from the International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The X-shaped Radio Galaxy J0725+5835 is Associated with an AGN Pair

X-shaped radio galaxies (XRGs) are those that exhibit two pairs of unaligned radio lobes (main radio lobes and wings). One of the promising models for the peculiar morphology is jet reorientation. To clarify this, we conducted a 5 GHz observation with the European VLBI Network (EVN) of XRG J0725+5835, which resembles the archetypal binary active galactic nuclei (AGNs) 0402+379 in radio morphology, but it is larger in angular size. In our observation, two milliarcsecond-scale radio components with nonthermal radio emission are detected. Each of them coincides with an optical counterpart with similar photometric redshift and (optical and infrared) magnitude, corresponding to dual active nuclei. Furthermore, with the improved Very Large Array (VLA) images, we find a bridge between the two radio cores and a jet bending in the region surrounding the companion galaxy. This further supports the interplay between the main and companion galaxies. In addition, we also report the discovery of an arcsecond-scale jet in the companion. Given the projected separation of ~100 kpc between the main and companion galaxies, XRG J0725+5835 is likely associated with a dual jetted-AGN system. In both EVN and VLA observations, we find signatures that the jet is changing its direction, which is likely responsible for the X-shaped morphology. For the origin of jet reorientation, several scenarios are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pore-Scale Transport Effects in Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction on Gold via Coupled Microkinetic-Transport Modeling

A pore-resolved modeling framework is developed to quantify how pore-scale transport affects the intrinsic microkinetics of CO 2 -to-CO on Au. A DFT-informed microkinetic model is coupled self-consistently to a Generalized-Modified Poisson–Nernst–Planck (GMPNP) transport description in a single, electrolyte-filled cylindrical pore, allowing local concentrations and potential to feed back into site-specific reaction rates. FIB-SEM is used to determine pore sizes within realistic electrode materials. Across pore diameters, d p = 10–6000 nm, the surface-averaged CO 2 reduction rate is systematically reduced relative to the ideal microkinetic baseline where mass transport is not accounted for; the effectiveness factor 𝜂 𝑠,CO 2 , which quantifies this ratio, decreases rapidly at more negative potentials and is about 1% near −1.0 V vs SHE due to reactant depletion. Spatial maps reveal pore-bulk alkalization that emerges at higher cathodic bias, with a small, near-wall pH dip due to electrostatic repulsion of hydroxide at the cathode interface. For a fixed aspect ratio L p /d p , narrower pores exhibit larger 𝜂 𝑠,CO 2 by shortening diffusion paths, whereas variations in the aspect ratio L p /d p play a secondary role. A dimensionless analysis (surface/bulk Damköhler numbers) delineates operating regimes. In conclusion, this work offers a concept for incorporating microkinetic models into homogenized porous-electrode models through effectiveness factors and pore-size distribution.

Au-catalyst↗
NASA NTRS2000

Calibrating Atmospheric Delay for the Cassini Gravitational Wave Experiment

The Cassini spacecraft together with one of the stations of the Deep Space Network (DSN) have been instrumented to carry out extremely precise Doppler tracking that will be used to search for the direct evidence of Gravitational radiation passing through our solar system. The two-way communications link between the ground antenna and the spacecraft constitute an "antenna" for gravitational waves that would perturb the phase of the RF signal in the link. The experiments will be carried out during the long cruise phase of the spacecraft on its journey to Saturn and will be sensitive to gravitational wave perturbations larger than the noise level fluctuations of 3 x 10(exp -15) as measured in the Allan Standard Deviation domain. The use of simultaneous, coherent X- and Ka-Band up and down signals will reduce the errors associated with charged particle fluctuations in the interplanetary medium and Earth's ionosphere to a negligible level. The primary fluctuations in the phase of the signals both to and from the spacecraft are expected to be caused by fluctuations in water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere We have designed and are testing a new atmospheric calibration system (with duplicate components) to sense line-of-sight water vapor and its physical temperature with a goal of calibrating 95% or more of tropospheric path delay fluctuations during the Cassini Gravitational Wave Experiment (GWE). The critical component of the calibration system consists of a newly designed water vapor radiometer having a I degree sensing beamwidth and 0.01 K brightness temperature stability over hour time scales. Auxiliary instrumentation includes a microwave temperature profiler to retrieve the vertical distribution of the vapor physical temperature, and surface meteorology. A detailed error budget has been developed to account for all of the possible sources of error during calibration of the GWE and will be discussed. Two identical calibration systems have been constructed in order to provide capability as well as backup during the actual GWE experiment. We will report on side-by-side testing of the vapor and temperature sensing components of this calibrations system as well as a comparison with a short baseline radio interferometric measurement at our Goldstone complex.

Resch, G. M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2009

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change around Mobile Bay, Alabama from 1974-2008

This document summarizes the major findings of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project led by NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) in conjunction with a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA). NASA researchers processed and analyzed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL between 1974 and 2008. Our goal was to create satellite-based LULC data products using methods that could be transferable to other coastal areas of concern within the Gulf of Mexico. The Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP) is the primary end-user, however, several other state and local groups may benefit from the project s data products that will be available through NOAA-NCDDC s Regional Ecosystem Data Management program. Mobile Bay is a critical ecologic and economic region in the Gulf of Mexico and to the entire country. Mobile Bay was designated as an estuary of national significance in 1996. This estuary receives the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the United States. It provides vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreationally important fish species. It has exceptional aquatic and terrestrial bio-diversity, however, its estuary health is influenced by changing LULC patterns, such as urbanization. Mobile and Baldwin counties have experienced a population growth of 1.1% and 20.5% from 2000-2006. Urban expansion and population growth are likely to accelerate with the construction and operation of the ThyssenKrupp steel mill in the northeast portion of Mobile County. Land-use and land-cover change can negatively impact Gulf coast water quality and ecological resources. The conversion of forest to urban cover types impacts the carbon cycle and increases the freshwater and sediment in coastal waters. Increased freshwater runoff decreases salinity and increases the turbidity of coastal waters, thus impacting the growth potential of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), which is critical nursing ground for many Gulf fish species. A survey of Mobile Bay SAV showed widespread decreases since the 1940s. Prior to our project, coastal environmental managers in Baldwin and Mobile counties needed more understanding of the historical LULC for properly assessing the impacts of urbanization. In particular, more information on the location and extent of changing urbanization LULC patterns was needed to aid LULC planning and to assess predictions of future LULC patterns. Our products will assist the coastal environmental managers and land-use planners in making better community growth planning decisions. Our project also will help to establish a historical baseline of LULC distributions, which is a fundamental need in any stewardship plan. The primary research objective of our project was to produce historic and current geospatial LULC change products across a 34-year time frame. A multi-decadal coastal LULC change product was the major project deliverable. The geographic extent and nature of change was quantified and assessed for the upland herbaceous, barren, open water, urban, upland forest, woody wetland, and non-woody wetlanddominated land cover types. We focused on regional analyses of decadal-scale urban expansion and watershed-scaled analyses of LULC change for multiple areas of concern to the Mobile Bay NEP (Figure A). We used the following dates to derive LULC classification products from Landsat data: 1974, 1979, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2005, and 2008. We assessed the accuracy of our products using randomly sampled locations and digital geospatial reference data including field survey data, high resolution orthorectified aerial photography, high resolution multispectral and panchromatic satellite data displays (from QuickBird and Corona sensors), digital elevation model data, and National Wetlands Inventory wetland cover type data. NOAA s Coastal Change Assessment Program s (C-CAP) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) procts were used for qualitative comparison in assessing map accuracy. We calculated an average overall classification accuracy of 87% with similar overall accuracies for the older (MSS) and newer (TM and ETM) Landsat LULC products.

Ellis, Jean↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct effects of prolonged TNF-α and IL-6 exposure on neural activity in human iPSC-derived neuron-astrocyte co-cultures

Cognitive impairment is one of the many symptoms reported by individuals suffering from long-COVID and other post-viral infection disorders such as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). A common factor among these conditions is a sustained immune response and increased levels of inflammatory cytokines. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) are two such cytokines that are elevated in patients diagnosed with long-COVID and ME/CFS. In this study, we characterized the changes in neural functionality, secreted cytokine profiles, and gene expression in co-cultures of human iPSC-derived neurons and primary astrocytes in response to prolonged exposure to TNF-α and IL-6. We found that exposure to TNF-α produced both a concentration-independent and concentration-dependent response in neural activity. Burst duration was significantly reduced within a few days of exposure regardless of concentration (1 pg/mL – 100 ng/mL) but returned to baseline after 7 days. Treatment with low concentrations of TNF-α (e.g., 1 and 25 pg/mL) did not lead to changes in the secreted cytokine profile or gene expression but still resulted in significant changes to electrophysiological features such as interspike interval and burst duration. Conversely, treatment with high concentrations of TNF-α (e.g., 10 and 100 ng/mL) led to reduced spiking activity, which may be correlated to changes in neural health, gene expression, and increases in inflammatory cytokine secretion (e.g., IL-1β, IL-4, and CXCL-10) that were observed at higher TNF-α concentrations. Prolonged exposure to IL-6 led to changes in bursting features, with significant reduction in the number of spikes in bursts across a wide range of treatment concentrations (i.e., 1 pg/mL–10 ng/mL). In combination, the addition of IL-6 appears to counteract the changes to neural function induced by low concentrations of TNF-α, while at high concentrations of TNF-α the addition of IL-6 had little to no effect. Conversely, the changes to electrophysiological features induced by IL-6 were lost when the cultures were co-stimulated with TNF-α regardless of the concentration, suggesting that TNF-α may play a more pronounced role in altering neural function. These results indicate that increased concentrations of key inflammatory cytokines associated with long-COVID can directly impact neural function and may be a component of the cognitive impairment associated with long-COVID and other post-viral infection disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) Data

In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi: doi:10.15485/1781803), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms.data.2022_01_03.tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of September 2020. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-situ measurements of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGAGE) and affiliated stations.

In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.3334/CDIAC/ATG.DB1001), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms_data_2021_04_07_tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of March 2020. Two new compounds, HCFC-132b, and HCFC-133a, are also included in this version. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics potential of the IceCube Upgrade for atmospheric neutrino oscillations

The IceCube Upgrade is an extension of the existing IceCube Neutrino Observatory and will be deployed in the 2025–2026 austral summer. It will significantly improve the sensitivity of the detector to atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The existing 86-string IceCube array contains a dense in-fill known as DeepCore which is optimized to measure neutrinos with energies down to a few GeV. The IceCube Upgrade will consist of seven new densely instrumented strings placed within the DeepCore volume to further enhance the performance in the GeV energy range. The additional strings will feature new optical modules, each containing multiple photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), in contrast to the existing modules that each contain a single PMT. This will more than triple the number of PMT channels with respect to the current IceCube configuration, allowing for improved detection efficiency and reconstruction performance at GeV energies. We describe necessary updates to simulation, event selection, and reconstruction to accommodate the higher data rates observed by the upgraded detector and the addition of multi-PMT modules. We determine the expected sensitivity of the IceCube Upgrade to the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters sin 2 ⁡𝜃 23 and Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{32}$, the appearance of tau neutrinos and the neutrino mass ordering. The IceCube Upgrade will provide neutrino oscillation measurements that are of similar precision to those from accelerator experiments, while providing complementarity by probing higher energies and longer baselines, and with different sources of systematic uncertainties.

artificial neural networks↗