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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining Experimental and Theoretical Techniques to Gain an Atomic Level Understanding of the Defect Binding Mechanism in Hard Carbon Anodes for Sodium Ion Batteries

Sodium ion batteries (NIBs) are an attractive alternative to lithium–ion batteries in applications that require large–scale energy storage due to sodium's high natural abundance and low cost. Hard carbon (HC) is the most promising anode material for NIBs; however, there is a knowledge gap in the understanding of the sodium binding mechanism that prevents a rational design of HC. This study tunes sucrose–derived HC via synthesis temperature then evaluates the structural, physical, and electrochemical properties. Neutron total scattering is used to generate structural models by fitting pair distribution functions (PDF) with a combination of molecular dynamics and reverse Monte Carlo methods. From this model, the number and type of structural features are identified, quantified, and correlated to the galvanostatic charge/discharge. A method of PDF “fingerprinting” binding sites using Na probe atoms is developed and analyzing these PDFs reveals an atomistic view of ion binding sites responsible for “defect” storage mechanisms. Combining these techniques results in an atomic–level study that provides a big picture of the Na–binding mechanism in NIBs, which allows for more precise tuning of the structure–property relationships in the future. Finally, the methodologies developed will also enable new strategies for the analysis of amorphous functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forward modeling approach to nuclear reaction cross sections: Applications in neutron inelastic scattering

The development of nuclear reaction models for the production of evaluated nuclear data has traditionally been performed by comparing measured cross sections with predictions from reaction model codes whose physical input parameters are adjusted to obtain the best agreement between measured and modeled results. To more directly probe reaction model inputs, this work introduces a forward modeling approach to experimental reaction cross-section determination, where the most important physical input parameters to reaction model calculations are obtained via 𝜒 2 minimization between measured and calculated observables. This was demonstrated using data collected by the Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering (GENESIS) at the 88-inch cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a detection array consisting of organic liquid scintillators and high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors. Using a broad-spectrum neutron beam and a 99.98%-enriched 56 Fe target, GENESIS was used to perform a simultaneous measurement of 56 Fe 𝛾-ray production cross sections and secondary neutron energy and angle distributions. The results of the forward modeling approach to the determination of energy-differential 𝛾-ray production cross sections for the yrast 4 + → 2 + and 6 + → 4 + transitions, as well as eight other off-yrast transitions, were compared against those obtained using conventional techniques, and the results are in good agreement. In addition to discrete 𝛾-ray yield total scattered neutron energy-angular distributions as a function of incident neutron energy were also obtained using forward modeling and found to agree with evaluated data, with the exception of elastic scattering at small angles. The fitted reaction model parameters obtained through forward modeling were also used to calculate the cross section for the unobserved (𝑛, 2⁢𝑛) reaction; excellent agreement with the current evaluation was obtained, providing a validation of the predictive capabilities of the forward model approach. This work bridges the gap between nuclear data experiment and evaluation by providing a new means for extracting inelastic neutron-scattering cross sections and neutron-induced 𝛾-ray production data while directly probing reaction model physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Whole Set of Accurate Sparse Interpretable Models

In data science applications, there are often many models that fit the data well. This phenomenon was called the Rashomon Effect by Leo Breiman. The set of good models is called the Rashomon Set, and the goal of this project is to locate, store, and study the Rashomon sets for classes of interpretable models, including decision trees and generalized additive models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1986

Mathematical modelling of solar ultraviolet radiation induced optical degradation in anodized aluminum

In the design of spacecraft for proper thermal balance, accurate information on the long-term optical behavior of the spacecraft outer skin materials is necessary. A phenomenological model for such behavior is given. The underlying principles are explained and some examples are given of the model's fit to actual measurements under simulated Earth-orbit conditions. Comments are given on the applicability of the model to materials testing and thermal modelling.

Ruley, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The electron diffusion coefficient in Jupiter's magnetosphere

A steady-state model of Jupiter's electron radiation belt is developed. The model includes injection from the solar wind, radial diffusion, energy degradation by synchrotron radiation, and absorption at Jupiter's surface. A diffusion coefficient of the form D sub RR/R sub J squared = k times R to the m-th power is assumed, and then observed data on synchrotron radiation are used to fit the model. The free parameters determined from this fit are m = 1.95 plus or minus 0.5, k = 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 x 10 to the 9th power per sec, and the magnetic moment of injected particles equals 770 plus or minus 300 MeV/G. The value of m shows quite clearly that the diffusion is not caused by magnetic pumping by a variable solar wind or by a fluctuating convection electric field. The process might be field line exchange driven by atmospheric-ionospheric winds; our diffusion coefficient has roughly the same radial dependence but is considerably smaller in magnitude than the upper bound diffusion coefficients recently suggested for this process by Brice and McDonough (1973) and Jacques and Davis (1972).

Birmingham, T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Driven Construction of Compact Primitive Gaussian Density Fitting Basis Sets

We present a model-assisted density fitting (MADF) basis set generator, an algorithm for generating primitive atomic Gaussian density fitting (DF) basis sets (DFBSs) from a contracted Gaussian orbital basis set (OBS). The MADF algorithm produces DFBSs suitable for accurate robust DF approximation of 2-particle interactions in mean-field and correlated electronic structures. The algorithm is designed to (a) saturate the OBS product space by a large regularized set of primitive solid-harmonic Gaussian shells with nonuniform distribution of exponents, followed by (b) pruning of the shells according to their contributions to the 2- body energy of a correlated atomic ensemble. Building the DFBS generator model almost exclusively on mathematical and physical principles allows one to limit the number of parameters that control the density fitting error to three, with a single set of parameters sufficient for computations with all basis cardinal numbers, with and without correlation of core electrons, with and without scalar and spin-dependent relativistic effects, spanning almost all of the Periodic Table. Performance assessment included basis sets up to quadruple-ζ quality from several major basis set families, using molecules composed of main-group, d-block, and f-block elements. The resulting DF errors in Hartree−Fock and second-order MP2 energies (with relativistic all-electron treatments, when appropriate) were on the order of 20 and 10 μE h per electron, respectively.

Approximation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probing the tides in interacting galaxy pairs

Detailed spectroscopic and imaging observations of colliding elliptical galaxies revealed unmistakable diagnostic signatures of the tidal interactions. It is possible to compare both the distorted luminosity distributions and the disturbed internal rotation profiles with numerical simulations in order to model the strength of the tidal gravitational field acting within a given pair of galaxies. Using the best-fit numerical model, one can then measure directly the mass of a specific interacting binary system. This technique applies to individual pairs and therefore complements the classical methods of measuring the masses of galaxy pairs in well-defined statistical samples. The 'personalized' modeling of galaxy pairs also permits the derivation of each binary's orbit, spatial orientation, and interaction timescale. Similarly, one can probe the tides in less-detailed observations of disturbed galaxies in order to estimate some of the physical parameters for larger samples of interacting galaxy pairs. These parameters are useful inputs to the more universal problems of (1) the galaxy merger rate, (2) the strength and duration of the driving forces behind tidally stimulated phenomena (e.g., starbursts and maybe quasi steller objects), and (3) the identification of long-lived signatures of interaction/merger events.

Borne, Kirk D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The COBE normalization for standard cold dark matter

The Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) detection of microwave anisotropies provides the best way of fixing the amplitude of cosmological fluctuations on the largest scales. This normalization is usually given for an n = 1 spectrum, including only the anisotropy caused by the Sachs-Wolfe effect. This is certainly not a good approximation for a model containing any reasonable amount of baryonic matter. In fact, even tilted Sachs-Wolfe spectra are not a good fit to models like cold dark matter (CDM). Here, we normalize standard CDM (sCDM) to the two-year COBE data and quote the best amplitude in terms of the conventionally used measures of power. We also give normalizations for some specific variants of this standard model, and we indicate how the normalization depends on the assumed values on n, Omega(sub B) and H(sub 0). For sCDM we find the mean value of Q = 19.9 +/- 1.5 micro-K, corresponding to sigma(sub 8) = 1.34 +/- 0.10, with the normalization at large scales being B = (8.16 +/- 1.04) x 10(exp 5)(Mpc/h)(exp 4), and other numbers given in the table. The measured rms temperature fluctuation smoothed on 10 deg is a little low relative to this normalization. This is mainly due to the low quadrupole in the data: when the quadrupole is removed, the measured value of sigma(10 deg) is quite consistent with the best-fitting the mean value of Q. The use of the mean value of Q should be preferred over sigma(10 deg), when its value can be determined for a particular theory, since it makes full use of the data.

Bunn, Emory F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Degradation and Accelerated Recovery of Surface Passivation in n+, p+, and Intrinsic Poly-Si/SiOx Passivating Contacts for Silicon Solar Cells

We report on the degradation and recovery of surface passivation of fired poly-Si/SiOx passivating contacts with hydrogen containing Al2O3 during annealing in the dark and under illumination. Upon firing to a peak temperature of 670 degrees C, the iVoc for symmetric test structures with n+, p+, and intrinsic poly-Si/SiOx contacts decreases due to a loss of surface passivation. Upon further annealing over the temperature range of 200-350 degrees C in the dark, depending on the type of doping, the surface passivation either shows further degradation followed by recovery, or direct recovery to the initial iVoc. Annealing at higher temperatures and/or higher illumination intensities accelerates the kinetics for both degradation and recovery processes. We show that the degradation and recovery processes are thermally activated and proceed identically in subsequent firing and annealing steps showing their cyclic nature. We present a series reaction model to explain the kinetics of degradation and recovery processes for n+ and intrinsic poly-Si/SiOx contacts. By fitting the model's rate expressions to the data, the determined effective activation energy barriers for degradation and recovery for n+ poly-Si/SiOx contacts in the dark are 1.24 and 1.51 eV, which are lowered under 7.5 Suns illumination to 0.76 and 1.15 eV, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tunable polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU)-based soft polymer gel sensors

Abstract Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) gels have recently been found to exhibit mechanoelectrical transduction under mechanical deformation. These mechanoelectrical properties of PVC gels are largely uncharacterized and the underlying transduction mechanisms are currently unknown. These soft electroactive polymers have tunable properties such as modulus and response voltage based on physical dimensions and the amount of plasticizer content within the material making them ideal candidates for complaint sensors. This study aims to investigate PVC gels comprised of various plasticizers to further investigate underlying mechanisms of mechanoelectrical transduction and broaden possible sensing applications. Plasticizers used in this study include dibutyl adipate, dibutyl phthalate, dioctyl phthalate, otherwise known as bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, diisodecyl adipate, and the environmentally friendly biodegradable plasticizer acetyl tributyl citrate (ATBC). ATBC is often used in cosmetics and food packaging applications and is even used as a food additive which may lead to future biocompatibility for these gel sensors. These plasticizers are used to produce PVC gel sensors that are experimentally tested for mechanoelectrical transduction properties and sensing performance. In this study, a Langmuir adsorptive model is fit to the collected mechanoelectrical transduction data. These results are also nondimensionalized and compared to the characteristic dimensionless Langmuir adsorptive model. This simple model agrees very well with the experimental data. Additionally, a study on the mechanoelectrical transduction of an alternative polymer lattice structure, thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), is discussed. This is a novel electroactive polymer investigated for mechanoelectrical transduction properties. This portion of the study aims to further knowledge of underlying mechanisms of mechanoelectrical transduction as well as show feasibility of additional lattices for soft polymer gel sensors. These TPU gel sensors show strikingly similar mechanoelectrical transduction properties to analogous PVC gels, insinuating that the polymer structure has a limited role in the underlying sensing mechanism and PVC itself is not unique to polymer gel sensing. The TPU-based soft polymer gel sensors however do display some level of mechanoelectrical hysteresis which may be attributed to viscoelastic properties and display a small amount of fatigue possibly due to exudation of liquid plasticizer. This study provides further characterization of mechanoelectrical response for varying plasticizers, provides a theoretical framework for underlying mechanisms, and displays the potential for further polymeric gel sensors.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2023

A unified exploration of the chronology of the Galaxy

The Milky Way has distinct structural stellar components linked to its formation and subsequent evolution, but disentangling them is non-trivial. With the recent availability of high-quality data for a large numbers of stars in the Milky Way, it is a natural next step for research in the evolution of the Galaxy to perform automated explorations with unsupervised methods of the structures hidden in the combination of large-scale spectroscopic, astrometric, and asteroseismic data sets. We determine precise stellar properties for 21 076 red giants, mainly spanning 2–15 kpc in Galactocentric radii, making it the largest sample of red giants with measured asteroseismic ages available to date. We explore the nature of different stellar structures in the Galactic disc by using Gaussian mixture models as an unsupervised clustering method to find substructure in the combined chemical, kinematic, and age subspace. The best-fitting mixture model yields four distinct physical Galactic components in the stellar disc: the thin disc, the kinematically heated thin disc, the thick disc, and the stellar halo. We find hints of an age asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemisphere, and we measure the vertical and radial age gradient of the Galactic disc using the asteroseismic ages extended to further distances than previous studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Evaluation of the SSRCS engine with hydrazine as a fuel, phase 2

Test firing of the Space Shuttle Reaction Control Thruster (SSRCT) was conducted to determine the characteristic velocity and chamber throat temperatures when the fuel is changed from monomethylhydrazine (MMH) to hydrazine. Thruster performance with hydrazine was essentially as predicted. Characteristic velocity at a mixture ratio of 1.4 (equal volumetric flow) for hydrazine was 5180 feet/second compared with 5110 feet/second at a mixture of 1.6 for MMH. Specific impulse with 22:1 nozzle is calculated to be 280 lbf-sec/lbm. Thermal performance, as measured by chamber throat temperature, was dramatically different (colder) than predicted. Throat temperatures of 2330 F were predicted from a cooling model which assumed a reactive liquid cooling film. Throat temperatures of 800 - 1000 F were measured. An attempt to reconcile the differences between film cooling predictions and the measurements, indicated that an evaporation (nonreactive fluid) model rather than a decomposition (reactive fluid) model best fits the test data at 0/F = 1.4. At higher mixture ratios, a transition to temperatures typical of the reactive fluid model were observed.

Minton, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Bimodal star formation - Constraints from galaxy colors at high redshift

The possibility that at early epochs the light from elliptical galaxies is dominated by stars with an initial mass function (IMF) which is deficient in low-mass stars, relative to the solar neighborhood is investigated. V-R colors for the optical counterparts of 3CR radio sources offer the most severe constraints on the models. Reasonable fits are obtained to both the blue, high-redshift colors and the redder, low-redshift colors with a model galaxy which forms with initially equal star formation rates in each of two IMF modes: one lacking low-mass stars, and one with stars of all masses. The net effect is that the time-integrated IMF has twice as many high-mass stars as the solar neighborhood IMF, relative to low mass stars. A conventional solar neighborhood IMF does not simultaneously account for both the range in colors at high redshift and the redness of nearby ellipticals, with any single star formation epoch. Models with a standard IMF require half the stellar population to be formed in a burst at low redshift z of about 1.

Wyse, Rosemary F. G.↗