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2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2013-2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey

# 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks, Alaska, Transportation Survey The 2013–2014 Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey obtained behavior data for regional travel demand modeling. The planning region in Alaska comprised the North Star Borough—known as the PM2.5 nonattainment region—and included the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole. ## Data Collection Agency The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities conducted the survey. ## Methodology Data collection occurred in two phases: the first in fall 2013 and the second in winter 2014. The first phase employed address-based sampling to recruit more than 1,700 households for a one-day personal travel survey, and a sub-sample participated with global position system (GPS) and on-board diagnostic (OBD) loggers installed in their vehicles (282 vehicles) for one week. The purpose of phase one was to better understand the impact of vehicle emissions on air quality in the PM2.5 nonattainment region. Many of the households participating in the vehicle GPS/OBD portion of phase one were asked to participate in phase two. ## Drive Cycle Processing and Filtering NREL has developed a GPS data filtration routine to filter erroneous data points in individual drive cycles sourced from GPS devices mounted in vehicles. Second-by-second drive cycle data collected from GPS-instrumented vehicles during this survey have passed through NREL's drive cycle processing and filtering routines. ## Survey Records Survey records include 135 households. ## More Information For more information about the survey, see the [Greater Fairbanks Transportation Survey Final Report](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/greater-fairbanks-transportation-survey-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=16ecd45b_1). ## Transportation Data For details on available travel survey data and variable definitions, see the [data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/akdot_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=16778e11_1). NREL-generated drive cycle data are also available for this survey. For details on available data and variable definitions, see the [drive cycle data dictionary](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/drive_cycles_data_dictionary.pdf?sfvrsn=7de7e888_1). Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗

Compatibility of Segments of Thermoelectric Generators

A method of calculating (usually for the purpose of maximizing) the power-conversion efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator is based on equations derived from the fundamental equations of thermoelectricity. Because it is directly traceable to first principles, the method provides physical explanations in addition to predictions of phenomena involved in segmentation. In comparison with the finite-element method used heretofore to predict (without being able to explain) the behavior of a segmented thermoelectric generator, this method is much simpler to implement in practice: in particular, the efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator can be estimated by evaluating equations using only hand-held calculator with this method. In addition, the method provides for determination of cascading ratios. The concept of cascading is illustrated in the figure and the definition of the cascading ratio is defined in the figure caption. An important aspect of the method is its approach to the issue of compatibility among segments, in combination with introduction of the concept of compatibility within a segment. Prior approaches involved the use of only averaged material properties. Two materials in direct contact could be examined for compatibility with each other, but there was no general framework for analysis of compatibility. The present method establishes such a framework. The mathematical derivation of the method begins with the definition of reduced efficiency of a thermoelectric generator as the ratio between (1) its thermal-to-electric power-conversion efficiency and (2) its Carnot efficiency (the maximum efficiency theoretically attainable, given its hot- and cold-side temperatures). The derivation involves calculation of the reduced efficiency of a model thermoelectric generator for which the hot-side temperature is only infinitesimally greater than the cold-side temperature. The derivation includes consideration of the ratio (u) between the electric current and heat-conduction power and leads to the concept of compatibility factor (s) for a given thermoelectric material, defined as the value of u that maximizes the reduced efficiency of the aforementioned model thermoelectric generator.

Snyder, G. Jeffrey↗

Atomistic Method Applied to Computational Modeling of Surface Alloys

The formation of surface alloys is a growing research field that, in terms of the surface structure of multicomponent systems, defines the frontier both for experimental and theoretical techniques. Because of the impact that the formation of surface alloys has on surface properties, researchers need reliable methods to predict new surface alloys and to help interpret unknown structures. The structure of surface alloys and when, and even if, they form are largely unpredictable from the known properties of the participating elements. No unified theory or model to date can infer surface alloy structures from the constituents properties or their bulk alloy characteristics. In spite of these severe limitations, a growing catalogue of such systems has been developed during the last decade, and only recently are global theories being advanced to fully understand the phenomenon. None of the methods used in other areas of surface science can properly model even the already known cases. Aware of these limitations, the Computational Materials Group at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field has developed a useful, computationally economical, and physically sound methodology to enable the systematic study of surface alloy formation in metals. This tool has been tested successfully on several known systems for which hard experimental evidence exists and has been used to predict ternary surface alloy formation (results to be published: Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; and Mosca, H.: Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(100) Surface Alloy Formation. Surf. Sci., 2000 (in press); Mosca, H.; Garces J.E.; and Bozzolo, G.: Surface Ternary Alloys of (Cu,Au)/Ni(110). (Accepted for publication in Surf. Sci., 2000.); and Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; Mosca, H.; and Abel, P.: A New Approach for Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(110) Surface Alloy Formation. (Submitted to Appl. Surf. Sci.)). Ternary alloy formation is a field yet to be fully explored experimentally. The computational tool, which is based on the BFS (Bozzolo, Ferrante, and Smith) method for the calculation of the energetics, consists of a small number of simple PCbased computer codes that deal with the different aspects of surface alloy formation. Two analysis modes are available within this package. The first mode provides an atom-by-atom description of real and virtual stages 1. during the process of surface alloying, based on the construction of catalogues of configurations where each configuration describes one possible atomic distribution. BFS analysis of this catalogue provides information on accessible states, possible ordering patterns, and details of island formation or film growth. More importantly, it provides insight into the evolution of the system. Software developed by the Computational Materials Group allows for the study of an arbitrary number of elements forming surface alloys, including an arbitrary number of surface atomic layers. The second mode involves large-scale temperature-dependent computer 2. simulations that use the BFS method for the energetics and provide information on the dynamic processes during surface alloying. These simulations require the implementation of Monte-Carlo-based codes with high efficiency within current workstation environments. This methodology capitalizes on the advantages of the BFS method: there are no restrictions on the number or type of elements or on the type of crystallographic structure considered. This removes any restrictions in the definition of the configuration catalogues used in the analytical calculations, thus allowing for the study of arbitrary ordering patterns, ultimately leading to the actual surface alloy structure. Moreover, the Monte Carlo numerical technique used for the large-scale simulations allows for a detailed visualization of the simulated process, the main advantage of this type of analysis being the ability to understand the underlying features that drive these processes. Because of the simplicity of the BFS method for e energetics used in these calculations, a detailed atom-by-atom analysis can be performed at any point in the simulation, providing necessary insight on the details of the process. The main objective of this research program is to develop a tool to guide experimenters in understanding and interpreting often unexpected results in alloy formation experiments. By reducing the computational effort without losing physical accuracy, we expect that powerful simulation tools will be developed in the immediate future, which will allow material scientists to easily visualize and analyze processes at a level not achievable experimentally.

Bozzolo, Guillermo H.↗

A Combined Al-Mg/Pb-Pb Age of the Solar System

Astrophysical models of planet formation and protoplanetary disk evolution demand precise and accurate timing of the sequence of events in the solar nebula, relative to a time t=0, usually taken to be during the short epoch of CAI (Ca-rich, Al-rich inclusion) formation. Most CAIs formed withlive26Al (mean-life τ26= 1.034 Myr [1]), with an abundance 26Al/27Al ≈ (26Al/27Al)SS= 5.23 × 10-5[2]. We adopt this as the widespread level of 26Al in the solar nebula at t=0. Assuming spatial homogeneity of 26Al, an inclusion that had less 26Al, (26Al/27Al)0, formed a time Δt26= τ26ln[(26Al/27Al)SS/ (26Al/27Al)0] after t=0.These ages are typical precise to within ±0.1 Myr. Igneous bulk meteorites and inclusions can be relatively dated by the Al-Mg chronometer, but only ifΔt26<6 Myr. The Pb-Pb system is useful as a longer relative chronometer. It yields absolute ages tPb using 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/204Pb, and 238U/235U ratios measured indifferent portions of a sample, assuming certain half-lives [4]. These absolute ages are uncertain to within ±9 Myr due to uncertainties in the 235U half-life[3], but times of formation ΔtPb= tCAI–tPb relative to t=0, are more precise(±0.5Myr),iftCAI can be found. Here, tCAI means the Pb-Pb age that would be measured in CAIs using the half-lives the community typically uses, if they achieved isotopic closure at t=0. Unfortunately, direct Pb-Pb dating of CAIs has not definitively determined tCAI. Based on four CAIs with canonical (26Al/27Al)0,[5,6] found tPb= 4567.30 ± 0.16 Myr. No other CAI ages with measured 238U/235U have been reported in the refereed literature, but there are hints of other CAIs with ages tPb= 4568.0 ± 0.2 Myr [7] and tPb= 4568.3 ± 0.2 Myr [8].It is unclear whether anyof these igneous type B CAIs isotopically closed at t=0 or represents tCAI. Instead of measurements, we advocate finding tCAI by minimizing the discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers. Assuming Δt26=ΔtPb, we find the implied t’CAI= tPb+Δt26, then define t*CAIas the weighted mean of the t’CAI. t*CAIis the best guess for the Pb-Pb age of t=0; the assumption of homogeneity is justified if the t’CAI cluster within errors around t*CAI. This statistical approach is similar to, but improves on, that of[9]. We find t*CAI= 4568.73 ± 0.16 Myr. Below we discuss our methodology and the implications of this age for CAIs, 1.4 Myr older than the reported and typically used age 4567.30±0.16 Myr. Methods: We base our estimate of t*CAIon five achondrites for which published (26Al/27Al)0and Pb-Pb ages exist: the quenched angrites D’Orbigny, Sahara 99555 (SAH 99555), and Northwest Africa (NWA) 1670; the pseudo-eucrite Asuka 881394; and the inner disk achondrite. All are “NC” (non-carbonaceous) achondrites that likely cooled quickly enough that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems achieved isotopic closure simultaneously. We also considered the “CC” (carbonaceous chondrite-like) achondrites NWA 2796 and NWA 6704, butdo not include them in our fit. Al-Mg and Pb-Pb seem not to have closed simultaneously, possibly because formation in the outer disk from volatile-rich composition led to slower cooling. Of the 8 chondrules from NWA 5697 measured by [20,21], we also consider the 4 for which 238U/235U was measured: 2-C1, 5-C2, 3-C5, 11-C1.Depending on their post-formation thermal histories, the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in chondrules may or may not have closed simultaneously. Table 1: (26Al/27Al)0, Pb-Pb ages of selected samplesSample(26Al/27Al)0/ 10-6RefPb-PbRefD’Orbigny3.98±0.15104563.43±0.19♮10-12SAH 995553.64±0.18104563.88±0.2712NWA16705.92±0.59104564.39±0.24*10Asuka 88139413.1±0.5613-154564.98±0.1715NWA 73253.03±0.14164563.4±2.616NWA 27963.94±0.16174562.89±0.5917NWA 67043.03±0.14184562.76±0.26192-C17.56±1.53204567.57±0.56*215-C27.04±1.51204567.54±0.52*213-C58.85±1.83204566.20±0.63*2111-C15.55±1.84204565.84±0.72*21*regression based on one subset of data points ♮weighted mean of two datasets Pb-Pb ages are proportional to the intercept of the line formed by linear regression of 207Pb/206Pb vs. 206Pb/204Pb data from various washes, leachates and residues of acid dissolution of a sample. Because contamination by terrestrial or primordial Pb is pervasive, some fractions must be excluded from regressions to ensure a fit with acceptable mean squares weighted deviation (MSWD). Usually points are excluded based on low [Pb], or low 206Pb/204Pb ratio(low radiogenic component), with single outliers identified [11,12,15,16,17]. In the starred examples (Table 1)and the case of 3 CAI Pb-Pb ages [5], up to half the points were excluded solely because did not fit a pre-determined line. This approach is vulnerable to confirmation bias and produces fits with low MSWD and too-low Pb-Pb age uncertainty. Regressing the same data points as [10], were produce the Pb-Pb age of NWA 1670 of 4564.39±0.24 Myr. But selecting other combinations of data points, other, equally valid, isochrons yield ages from 4563.77±0.21 Myr to 4564.64±0.23 Myr. Similar arguments apply to the Pb-Pb isochrons built by [21] for chondrules 2-C1 (we find 4567.33±0.44 to 4567.85±0.46 Myr), 5-C2 (4566.84±0.53 to 4567.70±0.44 Myr), 3-C5 (4565.84±0.54to 4567.04±0.54)and 11-C1 (4565.36±0.51 to 4565.74±0.45 Myr). Our adopted ages for these and NWA 1670 are listed in Table 2.Table 2. tCAI estimated from various components, using our regressions for the chondrules & NWA 1670.SampleΔt26(Myr)tPb(Myr)t’CAI(Myr)D’Orbigny5.05±0.044563.43±0.194568.48±0.19SAH 995555.14±0.054563.88±0.274569.02±0.27NWA16704.64±0.104564.21±0.634568.85±0.67Asuka 8813943.81±0.044564.98±0.174568.79±0.17NWA 73255.33±0.054563.4±2.64568.7±2.6NWA 27965.06±0.044562.89±0.594567.95±0.59NWA 67045.29±0.134562.76±0.264568.05±0.292-C12.00±0.214567.59±0.704569.59±0.725-C22.07±0.224567.23±0.914569.30±0.933-C51.84±0.214566.44±1.124568.28±1.1411-C12.32±0.344565.52±0.664567.84±0.73achondrite4568.72±0.16chondrules4568.76±0.58combined4568.73±0.16A weighted average of the five NC achondrites(or just D’Orbigny, SAH 99555 and Asuka 881394)yields t*CAI= 4568.72 ± 0.16Myr. All are consistent with this value to within 1.8σ, and MSWD=1.5. Including the 4 U-corrected chondrules, t*CAI= 4568.73± 0.16Myrwith MSWD=1.66, which is statistically significant. All chondrules and NC achondrites are consistent with this to within 1.8σ, (Figure 1).Figure 1. Al-Mg formation times after t=0 vs. Pb-Pb ages. The five NC achondrites and four chondrules are consistent with a Pb-Pb age of t=0 of 4568.7 Myr. Discussion: The data from achondrites and chondrules are consistent with a single Pb-Pb age at t=0, justifying the assumption of 26Al homogeneity. The age, 4568.7 Myr, is ≈1.4 Myr older than the commonly accepted Pb-Pb age of CAIs that formed with canonical 26Al/27Al at t=0 [3]. Others have interpreted the discrepancy to signify 26Al heterogeneity in the CAI-forming region[5,21]. We suggest instead that CAIs were exposed to transient heating events that reset the Pb-Pb system without disturbing the Al-Mg system. Notably, chondrules typically experienced transient heating at these times in the nebula [22]. If so, direct measurements of CAIs will not yield as reliable a Pb-Pb age of t=0 as statistical approaches like this and that of [9].References:[1] Auer et al. 2009. [2] Jacobsen, B et al. 2008, EPSL 272, 353-364. [3] Tissot, Fet al. 2017, GCA 213, 593-617.[4] Villa, I et al. 2016, GCA 172, 387-392.[5] Amelin, Y et al. 2010, EPSL 300, 343-350.[6] Connelly, Jet al. 2012, Science 338, 651.[7] Bouvier, Aet al. 2011, LPICo 1639, 9054. [8] Bouvier, Aand Wadhwa, M2010, Nat Geosci 3, 637-641.[9] Nyquist, Let al. 2009, GCA 73, 5115-5136.[10] Schiller et al. 2015. [11] Wadhwa & Brennecka 2012. [12] Tissot et al. 2017. [13] Nyquist et al. 2003. [14] Wadhwa et al. 2009. [15] Wimpenny et al. 2019, GCA 244, 478-501.[16] Koefoed et al. 2016, GCA 183, 31-45. [17] Bouvier, A et al. 2011, GCA 75, 5310-5323. [18] Sanborn, Met al. 2019, GCA 245, 577-596. [19] Amelin, Yet al. 2019, GCA 245, 628-642.[20] Bollard, Jet al. 2017, Sci Adv 3 ,e1700407. [21] Bollard, Jet al. 2019, GCA 260, 62-83.[22] Villeneuve, J et al. 2009, Science 325, 985

S. J. Desch↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Equation Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. This paper will expand on the hypervelocity impact (HVI) testing and ballistic limit equation (BLE) definition work that was partially presented at the 2nd International Orbital De-bris (IOC-II) Conference held in Sugar Land, TX in December 2023. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the co-efficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for space-craft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar sur-face assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environ-ment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Mar-shall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Anthropocene↗

Deeper Dive into Interoperability and Its Implications for LunaNet Communications and Navigation Services

The Artemis program being developed by United States’ (US) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing the capabilities to return humans to the Moon and establish an initial base camp and associated infrastructure with extensive contributions from international and commercial partners. In planning for cislunar exploration and science missions, space agencies are collaborating to enable communications, networking, and Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems—called LunaNet—to exchange information and provide services to cislunar spacecraft and space systems, thus helping each other to achieve their shared goals. To achieve commonality and lower cost for mutual benefit, the strategy of interoperability is being adopted to help fit all the pieces together and function smoothly. Facilitating interoperability should benefit lunar missions by providing the ability to operate in a collaborative environment similar to the terrestrial Internet. Interoperability allows them to share information, navigate safely despite increasing radio frequency congestion, and follow common processes and procedures for effective joint operations. Unlike prior government-dominated efforts, this ecosystem is expected to include and benefit for-profit (commercial) businesses, non-profit organizations, and academic institutions as active stakeholders. Ultimately, the goal is to enable a cislunar ecosystem of service providers and users to contribute to and/or utilize infrastructure and capabilities to achieve mission objectives that span the full range of human endeavors while supporting a variety of business models. This approach enables a Systems of Systems (SoS), such as a Network-of-Networks, to be sustainable in the context of the LunaNet ecosystem as systems evolve over time in technologies, standards, components, and user applications. This paper reports on the results of an effort to help frame the development of the international LunaNet architecture by providing a canonical definition of interoperability broad enough to meet these needs, examining architectural and operational implications of the definition, and exploring interoperability strategies and tactics to deploy and evolve the services proposed for cislunar exploration and science missions.

interoperability↗

An IR Sounding-Based Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer in North Africa

Intense daytime surface heating over barren-to-sparsely vegetated surfaces results in dry convective mixing. In the absence of external forcing such as mountain waves, the dry convection can produce a deep, well-mixed, nearly isentropic boundary layer that becomes a well-mixed residual layer in the evening. These well-mixed layers (WML) retain their unique mid-tropospheric thermal and humidity structure for several days. To detect the SAL and characterize its properties, AIRS Level 2 Ver. 6 temperature and humidity products (2003-Present) are evaluated against rawinsondes and compared to model analysis at each of the 55 rawinsonde stations in northern Africa. To distinguish WML from Saharan air layers (WMLs of Saharan origin), the detection involved a two-step process: 1) algorithm-based detection of WMLs in dry environments (less than 7 g per kilogram mixing ratio) 2) identification of Sahara air layers (SAL) by applying Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectories to determine the history of each WML. WML occurrence rates from AIRS closely resemble that from rawinsondes, yet rates from model analysis were up to 30% higher than observations in the Sahara due to model errors. Despite the overly frequent occurrence of WMLs from model analysis, HYSPLIT trajectory analysis showed that SAL occurrence rates (given a WML exists) from rawinsondes, AIRS, and model analysis were nearly identical. Although the number of WMLs varied among the data sources, the proportion of WMLs which were classified as SAL was nearly the same. The analysis of SAL bulk properties showed that AIRS and model analysis exhibited a slight warm and moist bias relative to rawinsondes in non-Saharan locations, but model analysis was notably warmer than rawinsondes and AIRS within the Sahara. The latter result is likely associated with the dearth of available data assimilated by model analysis in the Sahara. The variability of SAL thicknesses was reasonably captured by both AIRS and model analysis, but the former favor layers than are thinner than observations. Finally, further analysis of HYSPLIT trajectories revealed that fewer than 10% and 33% of all SAL back trajectories passed through regions with notable precipitation (>100 mm accumulated along the trajectory path) or Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD greater than 0.4, 75th percentile of AOD) on average, respectively. Trajectory analysis indicated that only 57% of Saharan and 24% of non-Saharan WMLs are definitively of Saharan origin (Saharan requirement: Two consecutive days in Sahara and 24 or more of those hours within 72 hours of detection). Non-SAL WMLs either originate from local-to-regionally generated residual layers or from mid-latitude air streams that do not linger over the Sahara for a sufficient time period. Initial analysis shows these non-SAL WMLs tend to be both notably cooler and slightly moister than their SAL counter parts. Continuing analysis will address what role Saharan and non-Saharan air masses characteristics may play on local and regional environmental conditions.

Nicholls, Stephen D.↗

An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems.

Turksen, I. B.↗