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At least 955 records · Page 53

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Multi-Domain Routing in Delay Tolerant Networks

The goal of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is to provide the missing ingredient for the ever-growing collection of communicating nodes in our solar system to become a Solar System Internet (SSI). Great strides have been made in modeling particular types of DTNs, such as schedule- or discovery-based. Now, analogously to the Internet, these smaller DTNs can be considered routing domains which must be stitched together to form the overall SSI. In this paper, we propose a framework for cross-domain routing in DTNs as well as methodologies for detecting these sub-domains. Example time-varying networks are given to demonstrate the techniques proposed. A basic component is the mathematical theory of sheaves, which unifies the underlying model of DTN routing algorithms, by giving rise to routing sheaves – these can be defined for the dynamic and scheduled networks as noted above, and can also be used to define the interfaces between these domains in order to route across them. An immediate application would be routing across discovery-based networks connected by scheduled networks. These DTN subdomains remain elusive, however, and need to become well-defined and properly sized for tractable computability. In particular, a balance must be determined between areas that are too large (i.e. large matrix computations) versus areas that are too small (i.e. “many” single-noded domains). Moreover, the connections between the domains should, at least locally, be chosen to optimize data flow and connectivity: we address this in three ways. First, tools from persistent homology are given to understand underlying structures, reminiscent of hierarchies in the Internet Protocol (IP) addressing. Second, we construct a notion of temporal graph curvature based on network geometry to analyze flows induced by dynamical processes on these networks. Finally, Schrodinger Bridges, a tool arising from statistical physics, are proposed as a method of constructing flows on time-evolving networks with desirable properties such as speed, robustness, and load sensitivity. We construct an approach to temporal hypergraphs to simultaneously model unicast, multicast, and broadcast, using the language of scheme theory, and then consider DTN network coding as a way to achieve network-level computation and organization. The paper concludes with a discussion and ideas for future work.

Alan Hylton↗

The Art of Automation: Translating Electron Microscopy Workflows Into Automated Processes

Acquiring data using a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) is a complex, multi-step process. The intricacy of the process depends on the type of sample, composition of the material, desired results of the experiment, resolution requirement and other experimental factors. Each experiment presents unique complications, such as sample drift and contamination, that the microscopist must consider when acquiring data. All these challenges are handled fluidly and expertly by experienced microscopists, but to reach new levels of innovation in material development, including greater reproducibility, throughput, and precision, the automation of these workflows is essential. The initial phase of this work involved translating intuition-based workflows into discrete, programmable steps. Some common key stages in STEM workflows are the initial tuning, scanning the sample for areas of interest, and then acquiring the data. Each stage can be broken further into specific parameter adjustments, such as aberration correction and dwell time optimization, depending on the experiment. When deconstructing various experiments each step was assessed for automation feasibility based on the amount of real time operator decisions. There are steps that lend themselves to automation more readily than others, such as course focusing and sample screening, but there is potential for full automation of all stages with time. As an initial step, an automated montage routine was developed, allowing for the efficient acquisition of large portions of the sample without requiring continuous intervention from the operator. The automation of this small process of the procedure demonstrates the value of this capability. A major challenge in automation arises from discrepancies between commanded, reported and actual stage movements. Using systematic tests, stage movement was quantified. This error can be corrected algorithmically for more accurate workflows in the future. Expanding automation capabilities would result in larger, more efficient data acquisition which allows for more robust statistical analysis. Additionally, this work lays the groundwork for a closed loop system where machine learning algorithms would intake automatically acquired data and make real time decisions. By progressively automating this instrument, this work establishes the foundation for fully automated experimentation in transmission electron microscopy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling Nanoconfinement Effects Using Active Learning

Predicting the spatial configuration of gas in nanopores of is relevant in applications such as fluid flow forecasting and hydrocarbon reserves estimation. For example, shale reservoirs have suffered from computationally intractable multiscale problems, since fluid properties such as viscosity, density, and adsorption must be calculated by using expensive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within each nanopore, whereas flow through these connected nanopores must be simulated at the micrometer scale. We utilize machine learning techniques to quickly and accurately model nanoscale confinement effects as an important step toward bridging the nano and micro scales. Our workflow is based on building and training physics-based deep-neural-networks models by learning from a database of MD calculations. The model accounts for the adsorption phenomenon by predicting the statistical distribution of gas inside nanopores. Because large databases of MD calculations are expensive to create, we investigate active learning (AL) as a data set construction strategy. In this workflow, new data are selected based on the model uncertainty via the query-by-committee approach. We show that our workflow obtains accurate models that generalize to real scanning electron microscopy geometries with 1/10th of the number of MD calculations required vs random data set generation. Our method enables the possibility of modeling nanoconfinement effects at the mesoscale, where complex connected sets of nanopores affect flow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preliminary Thermoluminescent Dosimeter Glow Curve Analysis with Automated Glow Peak Identification for LiF Mg,Ti

When appropriately analyzed, thermoluminescent dosimeter glow curve analysis allows for improved quantification of thermoluminescent material behavior while flagging abnormalities. The mathematical separation of a glow curve into contributions from energetically unique trap states, or glow curve analysis, may be used to remove undesired effects of signal fading for complex materials. A generalized glow curve analysis software for the separation of glow curves is presented in this paper. Written in C ++ , the software uses the first-order kinetics model with automatic peak identification. The automatic identification of peaks is achieved through a unique peak-finding algorithm. Here, the program was performance tested using experimental glow curve data from LiF:Mg,Ti, and comparative results are presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Leveraging graph clustering techniques for cyber‐physical system analysis to enhance disturbance characterisation

Abstract Cyber‐physical systems have behaviour that crosses domain boundaries during events such as planned operational changes and malicious disturbances. Traditionally, the cyber and physical systems are monitored separately and use very different toolsets and analysis paradigms. The security and privacy of these cyber‐physical systems requires improved understanding of the combined cyber‐physical system behaviour and methods for holistic analysis. Therefore, the authors propose leveraging clustering techniques on cyber‐physical data from smart grid systems to analyse differences and similarities in behaviour during cyber‐, physical‐, and cyber‐physical disturbances. Since clustering methods are commonly used in data science to examine statistical similarities in order to sort large datasets, these algorithms can assist in identifying useful relationships in cyber‐physical systems. Through this analysis, deeper insights can be shared with decision‐makers on what cyber and physical components are strongly or weakly linked, what cyber‐physical pathways are most traversed, and the criticality of certain cyber‐physical nodes or edges. This paper presents several types of clustering methods for cyber‐physical graphs of smart grid systems and their application in assessing different types of disturbances for informing cyber‐physical situational awareness. The collection of these clustering techniques provide a foundational basis for cyber‐physical graph interdependency analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FRAM Version 7.1’s Bias

The Fixed-Energy Response-Function Analysis with Multiple Efficiency (FRAM) code was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to measure the gamma-ray spectrometry of the isotopic composition of plutonium, uranium, and other actinides. For FRAM versions 4 and earlier, the reported uncertainties of the results come from the propagation of the statistics in the peak areas only. No systematic error components are included in the reported uncertainties. For FRAM versions 5 and 6, we examined the FRAM analytical results of both the archival plutonium data and the data specifically acquired for the isotopic uncertainty analysis project and found the relationship between the bias and other parameters. We worked out the equations representing the biases of the measured isotopes from each measurement using internal spectral parameters, such as peak resolution and shape, region of analysis, and burnup (for plutonium) or enrichment (for uranium). The resulting biases were included in the reported uncertainties of FRAM v.5 and v.6.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

BASIN-3D Data Integration for Selected ARM Data Field Campaign Report

The purpose of this data services request was to demonstrate integration of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s “met” datastreams with time series data from other earth science data sources using the BASIN-3D data synthesis software tool. BASIN-3D is an open-source Python library that enables researchers to integrate data across configured public and private data sources. It provides a common query language for researchers to request measurement locations and time series data based on specified locations, variables, time period, statistics, aggregation, and data quality. BASIN-3D acquires the data that match the query from each configured data source and translates the results into harmonized vocabularies, thus reducing researchers' data-wrangling effort. In addition, because the queries are executed on demand, researchers can easily regenerate their synthesized data sets as new data and/or data updates become available, eliminating one-off data products. BASIN-3D can output data using a variety of different data structures for end-user applications including Python pandas data frames and hdf5 output formats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Data-Driven Passive Islanding Detection Scheme

This paper proposes a simple yet effective statistical parameters based passive islanding scheme. The proposed scheme relies only the voltage data, measured at the point of common coupling (PCC), and is comprised of three stages. The Stage-1 quickly computes what is termed as mean based coarse islanding detection (MID), Stage-2 computes the decaying DC detector (DDCD), and 3) finally, MID is used in conjunction with DDCD as per the statistical digital relay logic (SRDL) is devised in Stage-3 to distinguish between islanding events from non islanding events. Various tests are investigated on the Banshee's industrial Microgrid (MG), modelled in the Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS), on the basis of the IEEE-1547, UL 1741 standards. The validation of the proposed islanding detection methodology (PIDM) in RTDS platform ensures the viability of the proposed scheme in practical systems. The test results reveal that the PIDM can detect islanding within 2 cycles, and results in a very small non detection zone (NDZ). Moreover, the scheme can very well be used for single-phase MG too as it relies only on the single phase voltage information.

anti-islanding protection↗

Missing data in multi-omics integration: Recent advances through artificial intelligence

Biological systems function through complex interactions between various ‘omics (biomolecules), and a more complete understanding of these systems is only possible through an integrated, multi-omic perspective. This has presented the need for the development of integration approaches that are able to capture the complex, often non-linear, interactions that define these biological systems and are adapted to the challenges of combining the heterogenous data across ‘omic views. A principal challenge to multi-omic integration is missing data because all biomolecules are not measured in all samples. Due to either cost, instrument sensitivity, or other experimental factors, data for a biological sample may be missing for one or more ‘omic techologies. Recent methodological developments in artificial intelligence and statistical learning have greatly facilitated the analyses of multi-omics data, however many of these techniques assume access to completely observed data. A subset of these methods incorporate mechanisms for handling partially observed samples, and these methods are the focus of this review. We describe recently developed approaches, noting their primary use cases and highlighting each method's approach to handling missing data. We additionally provide an overview of the more traditional missing data workflows and their limitations; and we discuss potential avenues for further developments as well as how the missing data issue and its current solutions may generalize beyond the multi-omics context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainties in Density and Simulation Parameters for Radiographic Reconstructions Using Machine Learning

We will develop new and improved methods that will enable a fuller and more extensive use of experimental data, such as from radiographic imaging, towards better characterizing and reducing uncertainties in predictive modeling of weapons performance. We will achieve this by leveraging recent developments in the areas of computational imaging, statistical and machine learning, and reduced order modeling. Key new aspects of our approach include (a) a coupling of deep learning based density reconstruction with fast hydrodynamics simulators that will permit the development of certain guarantees on extrapolatability and bounds on certain other hydrodynamics-related para- metric uncertainties and (b) a dual approach towards better characterizing uncertainties in density reconstruction using deep learning based surrogates to accelerate Bayesian reconstructions on the one hand and using variational inference and Bayesian machine learning on the other hand.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Application of Systems Engineering Principles and Techniques in Biological Big Data Analytics: A Review

In the past few decades, we have witnessed tremendous advancements in biology, life sciences and healthcare. These advancements are due in no small part to the big data made available by various high-throughput technologies, the ever-advancing computing power, and the algorithmic advancements in machine learning. Specifically, big data analytics such as statistical and machine learning has become an essential tool in these rapidly developing fields. As a result, the subject has drawn increased attention and many review papers have been published in just the past few years on the subject. Different from all existing reviews, this work focuses on the application of systems, engineering principles and techniques in addressing some of the common challenges in big data analytics for biological, biomedical and healthcare applications. Specifically, this review focuses on the following three key areas in biological big data analytics where systems engineering principles and techniques have been playing important roles: the principle of parsimony in addressing overfitting, the dynamic analysis of biological data, and the role of domain knowledge in biological data analytics.

dynamic analysis↗

Graph Sparsification by Approximate matrix Multiplication

Graphs arising in statistical problems, signal processing, large networks, combinatorial optimization, and data analysis are often dense, which causes both computational and storage bottlenecks. One way of sparsifying a weighted graph, while sharing the same vertices as the original graph but reducing the number of edges, is through spectral sparsification. We study this problem through the perspective of RandNLA. Specifically, we utilize randomized matrix multiplication to give a clean and simple analysis of how sampling according to edge weights gives a spectral approximation to graph Laplacians, without requiring spectral information. Through the CR–MM algorithm, we attain a simple and computationally efficient sparsifier whose resulting Laplacian estimate is unbiased and of minimum variance. Here, we define a new notion of additive spectral sparsifiers, which has not been considered in the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

HL-LHC Analysis With ROOT: ROOT Project Input to the HL-LHC Computing Review (Stage 2)

ROOT is high energy physics' software for storing and mining data in a statistically sound way, to publish results with scientific graphics. It is evolving since 25 years, now providing the storage format for more than one exabyte of data; virtually all high energy physics experiments use ROOT. With another significant increase in the amount of data to be handled scheduled to arrive in 2027, ROOT is preparing for a massive upgrade of its core ingredients. As part of a review of crucial software for high energy physics, the ROOT team has documented its R&D plans for the coming years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

NASA Center JSC↗