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At least 955 records · Page 53

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Global weak solutions for a nonlocal multispecies Fokker–Planck–Landau system

The global-in-time existence of weak solutions to a spatially homogeneous multispecies Fokker–Planck–Landau system for plasmas in the three-dimensional whole space is shown. The Fokker–Planck–Landau system is a simplification of the Landau equations assuming a linearized, velocity-independent, and isotropic kernel. The resulting equations depend nonlocally and nonlinearly on the moments of the distribution functions via the multispecies local Maxwellians. Furthermore, the existence proof is based on a three-level approximation scheme, energy and entropy estimates, as well as compactness results, and it holds for both soft and hard potentials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling the effects of active wake mixing on wake behavior through large-scale coherent structures

The use of active wake mixing (AWM) to mitigate downstream turbine wakes has created new opportunities for reducing power losses in wind farms. However, many current analytical or semi-empirical wake models do not capture the flow instabilities that are excited through the blade pitch actuation. In this work, we develop a framework, which accounts for the impacts of the large-scale coherent structures and turbulence on the mean flow, for modeling AWM. The framework uses a triple-decomposition approach for the unsteady flow field and models the mean flow and fine-scale turbulence with a parabolized Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) system. The wave components are modeled using a simplified spatial linear stability formulation that captures the growth and evolution of the coherent structures. Comparisons with high-fidelity large eddy simulations (LESs) of the turbine wakes showed that this framework was able to capture the additional wake mixing and faster wake recovery in the far-wake regions for both the pulse and helix AWM strategies with minimal computational expense. In the near-wake region, some differences are observed in both the RANS velocity profiles and initial growth of the large-scale structures, which may be due to some simplifying assumptions used in the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Falling particle solar receivers

Falling particle solar receivers, systems, and methods are disclosed that include one non-linear falling particle curtain or two or more falling particle curtains within a solar receiver that receives incident solar radiation. The particles heated in the solar receiver may be used to heat a secondary fluid. In an embodiment, the particles may be recirculated to improve energy capture and thermal efficiency. In other embodiments, an air curtain may be used across the aperture of the receiver, and flow-control devices may be used to evenly spread particles across the width of the receiver inlet. Finally, feed particles may be preheated using heat from the solar receiver.

Ho, Clifford K.↗

Savannah River Site H-Canyon Process Exhaust Tunnel Inspection Crawler Development - 20036

This paper covers development of a remote crawler used to inspect a subterranean radiochemical process ventilation tunnel located at the Savannah River Site near Aiken, SC. The purpose of the inspection was to ascertain the apparent structural condition of the tunnel with video footage. Manned entry is prohibited due to the hazardous environment requiring a fully-remote approach. The inspection system used high-definition cameras to archive over 1000 linear feet in the tunnel. While previous inspections had been undertaken, this crawler was developed to overcome obstacles that had put tunnel regions out of reach of prior inspection platforms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Separating Physically Distinct Mechanisms in Complex Infrared Plasmonic Nanostructures via Machine Learning Enhanced Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy

Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) enables direct exploration of plasmonic phenomena at the nanometer level. To isolate individual plasmon modes, linear unmixing methods can be used to separate different physical mechanisms, but in larger and more complex systems the interpretability of the components becomes uncertain. Here, infrared plasmonic resonances in self-assembled heterogeneous monolayer films of doped-semiconductor nanoparticles are examined beyond linear unmixing techniques, and both supervised and unsupervised machine-learning-based analyses of hyperspectral EELS datasets are demonstrated. Additionally, in the supervised approach, a human operator labels a small number of pixels in the hyperspectral dataset corresponding to features of interest which are then propagated across the entire dataset. In the unsupervised approach, non-linear autoencoders are used to create a highly-reduced latent-space representation of the dataset, within which insight into the relevant physics can be gleaned from straightforward distance metrics that do not depend on operator input and bias. The advantage of these approaches is that the labeling separates physical mechanisms without altering the data, enabling robust analyses of the influence of heterogeneities in mesoscale complex systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Linear relationships for modeling CO 2 absorption in aqueous alkanolamine solutions in a thermodynamically consistent way

A thermodynamically consistent model for the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) absorption in aqueous alkanolamine system is of great importance in the research and development of a CO 2 capture process. To facilitate the development of thermodynamic models, linear Gibbs free energy, enthalpy, and heat capacity relationships using well-known amines as reference are used to correlate the standard reference state properties of ionic species with those of molecular species in the electrolyte system, which has been approved to provide a reliable and consistent way to estimate required parameters when there is minimal or no appropriate experimental data available. Here, the proposed relationships have been applied to the development of an electrolyte nonrandom two liquid (NRTL) activity coefficient model for CO 2 absorption in aqueous 1-amino-2-propanol (A2P) solution, as an example to demonstration the methodology. With limited vapor–liquid equilibrium data and other thermodynamic properties, the parameters in the electrolyte NRTL model are identified with good accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dispatch Optimization, System Design and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage

Variable renewable energy availability has increased the volatility in energy prices in most markets. Nuclear power plants, with a large ratio of capital to variable costs, have historically operated as base load energy suppliers but the need for more flexible operation is increasing. We simulate the techno-economic performance of a 950 MWt nuclear power plant, based on the Westinghouse lead-cooled fast reactor, coupled with molten salt thermal storage as a method for flexible energy dispatch. We use the System Advisor Model to model the nuclear reactor thermal power input and power cycle operating modes. We combine this robust engineering model with a mixed-integer linear program model for optimized dispatch scheduling. We then simulate the coupled nuclear and thermal storage system under different market scenarios with varying price volatility. We find that the coupled plant outperforms the base plant under markets where energy price peaks fluctuate by a factor of two or more about the mean price. We show that a calculated power purchase agreement price for the plant improves by up to 10% when operating under California energy market conditions. Sensitivity analysis on the thermal storage cost shows that the optimal design remains unchanged even when doubling costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Research Highlight - Dispatch Optimization, System Design and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage

We highlight our work from our previous publication titled "Dispatch Optimization, System Design, and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage" published in MDPI Energies 2022 (doi.org/10.3390/en15103599). Variable renewable energy availability has increased the volatility in energy prices in most markets. Nuclear power plants, with a large ratio of capital to variable costs, have historically operated as base load energy suppliers but the need for more flexible operation is increasing. We simulate the techno-economic performance of a 950 MWt nuclear power plant, based on the Westinghouse lead-cooled fast reactor, coupled with molten salt thermal storage as a method for flexible energy dispatch. We use the System Advisor Model to model the nuclear reactor thermal power input and power cycle operating modes. We combine this robust engineering model with a mixed-integer linear program model for optimized dispatch scheduling. We then simulate the coupled nuclear and thermal storage system under different market scenarios with varying price volatility. We find that the coupled plant outperforms the base plant under markets where energy price peaks fluctuate by a factor of two or more about the mean price. We show that a calculated power purchase agreement price for the plant improves by up to 10% when operating under California energy market conditions. Sensitivity analysis on the thermal storage cost shows that the optimal design remains unchanged even when doubling costs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Methods—Analyzing Electrochemical Kinetic Parameters in Deep Eutectic Solvents Using an Extended Butler-Volmer Equation

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are promising electrolytes for electrochemical redox reactions, which can be used in redox flow batteries (RFBs). However, in some systems like the Fe 2+/3+ redox reaction in ethaline, traditional Tafel-based kinetic analysis generates unreasonable kinetic parameters (i.e., large anodic/cathodic charge transfer coefficients ( α a , α c ) along with low exchange current densities ( i 0 )). This hinders a comprehensive kinetic and kinetic mechanism study. Here, we perform a detailed investigation of the Tafel analysis using a series of synthetic rotating disk electrode (RDE) data. We find the Tafel analysis only works well when i 0 < 0.57 i lim (limiting current density) in our scenario and leads to abnormal kinetic values once i 0 exceeds this limiting value. Thus, we propose an extended Butler-Volmer (ex-BV) analysis based on modern non-linear fitting techniques to obtain the actual kinetic parameters for such systems. The results show that this method fits the RDE data closely and generates reliable α a , α c and i 0 values, demonstrating that it is a good replacement for traditional Tafel analysis for kinetic studies in high-viscosity electrolytes such as DES systems.

Electrochemistry↗

Diversity in Photoprotection and Energy Balancing in Terrestrial and Aquatic Phototrophs

The evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis enabled organisms to use sunlight as an energy source, allowing them to colonize new niches. At the same time, life (as we know it) places severe constraints on photosynthesis. For example, the initial reactions of photosynthesis involve highly energetic intermediates that, if not controlled, can generate highly toxic side products (especially reactive oxygen species, ROS), that can damage other essential components of the organisms it powers. Photosynthesis must therefore be tightly regulated to balance the need for efficient energy conversion with the necessity of avoiding photodamage (Gust D, Kramer D, Moore A, Moore T, Vermaas W, Mater Res Bull 33:383–389, 2008). A related constraint on photosynthesis is the need to precisely balance how much energy is stored in ATP and NADPH to precisely meet biochemical demands. If this balancing does not occur, the system will fail, leading to photodamage (Kramer DM, Evans JR, Plant Physiol 155:70–78, 2011). Consideration of these requirements is essential for efforts to improve the efficiency of photosynthesis by introducing CO 2 concentrating mechanisms, altering metabolism or biosynthetic pathways to shunt energy to alternative products (Kramer DM, Evans JR, Plant Physiol 155:70–78, 2011). These balancing processes must be extremely robust to contend with the rapid and unpredictable fluctuations in environmental conditions and metabolic demands that occur in nature. A large body of work has come from model systems, especially terrestrial higher plants and the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, leading to a model for the regulation of light reactions that involves 1) sensing of the pH gradient component of the thylakoid proton motive force (pmf), and 2) the redox state of the plastoquinone- and stromal pools. Over the short term, these sensors trigger regulation of light capture by altering the activity of ATP synthase leading to adjustments in lumen pH, which fine tunes light capture through nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) and control of electron flow by adjusting the rate of PQH 2 oxidation at the b 6 f complex. Simultaneously, this system controls the balance of ATP/NADPH by adjusting electron flux to linear and cyclic electron flow pathways to balance ATP/NADPH. This integrated “pmf paradigm” model explains much of the existing data on plants and green algae, but may not extend to other diverse organisms. This review considers how advances in our understanding of photosynthesis over the past 7–8 years, particularly in the discoveries of diverse biochemical/biophysical mechanisms in aquatic photosynthetic species, affects the view of energy balance, including the shunting of electrons to O 2 through the flavodiiron proteins (FLV), the plastid terminal oxidase, the dissipation of electric field by ion movements, and the activation of alternative electron sinks. Furthermore, we will introduce the basic model that has been developed for higher plant chloroplasts, then contrast these with selected aquatic systems, focusing on how the differences impact the needs to re-balance both energy input and its partitioning into energy currencies.

Kanazawa, Atsuko↗

Robust constrained tension control for high-precision roll-to-roll processes

Tension control is critical for maintaining good product quality in most roll-to-roll (R2R) production systems. Previous work has primarily focused on improving the disturbance rejection performance of tension controllers. Here, a robust linear parameter-varying model predictive control (LPV-MPC) scheme is designed to enhance the tension tracking performance of a pilot R2R system for deposition of materials used in flexible thin film applications. The performance of a tension controller may degrade due to disturbances associated with model uncertainties and the slowly-changing dynamics in R2R systems. We introduce a method that separately treats these two sources of disturbance. The controller utilizes an incremental model to eliminate the errors caused by the mismatch between the nominal model and the actual system. A tube-based MPC formulation combined with scheduled parameters adequately updates models and corrects for the time-varying dynamics. Constraints on the rated motor torque are incorporated in the MPC to maintain the controller reliability and avoid machine failures. We illustrate the operation of our control algorithm through simulation of an actual R2R system. The controller outperforms the benchmarks in terms of fast transient response and offset-free tension tracking. Furthermore, it also demonstrates immunity from variations due to parametric uncertainties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Synthesis and morphological characterization of linear and miktoarm star poly(solketal methacrylate)- block -polystyrene copolymers

The synthesis, molecular characterization, and morphological evaluation of AB n, (n = 2,3) miktoarm star block copolymers consisting of poly(glycerol monomethacrylate) (PGMA) and polystyrene (PS) with varying molecular weights and compositions is described. The system is known to demonstrate a remarkably high Flory-Huggins interaction parameter. The corresponding linear diblock copolymer analogues, were synthesized as well, and comparisons with regard to feature dimensions and morphologies are provided. Well-ordered nanostructures of various morphologies were formed with domain spacing as low as 7.2 nm. Different morphologies were attained by some of the topological isomers indicating that in miktoarm star block copolymers the phase boundaries were strongly shifted. Additionally, a triblock ABA analogue was studied to investigate the effect of triblock copolymer conformations. Noteworthy is that for copolymers with different macromolecular architecture leading to similar morphology; different domain spacings were obtained. The synthesis of all the samples was carried out by high-vacuum anionic polymerization techniques. Molecular characterization with Size Exclusion Chromatography (SEC) and Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy ( 1 H NMR) confirmed well-defined copolymers obtained. The morphological characterization was accomplished by Small-Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS). In conclusion, the observations from this study highlight the potential of incorporating macromolecular architecture in the self-assembly of strongly immiscible block copolymers to attain ultra-small nanofeatures with desired morphologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flashlamp drive system for a high-energy 10–100 kHz pulse-burst Nd:YAG laser

We present the design of the flashlamp drive system for the NG100 laser, a 1 J/pulse, 10–100 kHz, pulse-burst Nd:YAG laser system being developed for application in a Thomson scattering plasma diagnostic. This flashlamp drive system is under active development, with a prototype now being constructed. The flashlamp drive system is modular, with each module capable of driving a series pair of linear flashlamps. Each drive module contains and is controlled by a dedicated Analog Regulator Controller. Thus each module is independently operable and controllable. This modular approach imposes no intrinsic limit to the number of modules that may be applied to drive the flashlamp pairs in a laser system. Each flashlamp drive module has a switch-regulated topology. An 1800 V main capacitor bank provides 25 kJ of energy storage, while a lower voltage output capacitor bank provides filtering and the initial energy delivered to the flashlamps at the start of the drive pulse. The main bank is recharged after each flashlamp drive pulse. As energy is drawn from the output bank by the flashlamps, an IGBT switching regulator feeds current from the main bank through an inductor to replenish the output capacitor bank. The rate of replenishment is feedback-controlled to maintain a regulated supply of power to the flashlamp load, with a setpoint range of 0.07 to 1.65 MW. An Analog Regulator Controller produces two-state variable pulse width feedback switching of the regulator IGBT. The switching frequency is ≤ 20 kHz, dynamically adjusted to limit ripple of the flashlamp power to ±3% statistical standard deviation of mean. For development or troubleshooting, each module is operable independent of the laser digital control system (microcontroller and FPGA).

Plasma diagnostics - interferometry↗

An ℓ 0 ℓ 2 -norm regularized regression model for construction of robust cluster expansions in multicomponent systems

In this work we introduce ℓ 0 ℓ 2 -norm regularization and hierarchy constraints into linear regression for the construction of cluster expansions to describe configurational disorder in materials. The approach is implemented through mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP). The ℓ 2 -norm regularization is used to suppress intrinsic data noise, while the ℓ 0 -norm is used to penalize the number of nonzero elements in the solution. The hierarchy relation between clusters imposes relevant physics and is naturally included by the MIQP paradigm. As such, sparseness and cluster hierarchy can be well optimized to obtain a robust, converged set of effective cluster interactions with improved physical meaning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ℓ 0 ℓ 2 -norm regularization in two high-component disordered rocksalt cathode material systems, where we compare the cross-validation, convergence speed, and the reproduction of phase diagrams, voltage profiles, and Li-occupancy energies with those of the conventional ℓ 1 -norm regularized cluster expansion models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

An optical-input Maximum Likelihood Estimation feedback system demonstrated on tokamak horizontal equilibrium control

A readily parallelized Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) algorithm with linear computational complexity is demonstrated in real time using only measurements from an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) diagnostic to control the horizontal position of a tokamak plasma. A set of trial emissivity profiles are parameterized by the control quantity of interest (R m ), and the MLE is identified from the profile which minimizes the signal reconstruction residual. The algorithm depends on an empirically determined likelihood function with exponential form. EUV emission (λ ≈ 15eV-1keV) is captured in a poloidal plane by four 16-channel AXUV diodes mounted at different poloidal angles with radial and angular resolution sufficient to discern plasma equilibrium evolution in HBT-EP. Calculations of the plasma major radius by the system are consistent within diagnostic uncertainty for the majority of the discharge with those of: a weighted average of vertical soft X-ray or EUV chords, magnetic sensors, and an equilibrium reconstruction. The feedback system corrects for a horizontal displacement of the major radius equal to 20% of the plasma minor radius by adjusting the vertical field produced from 40 in-vessel control coils in real time. The MLE calculation is performed on a GPU in a 15 μs cycle, with similar performance in this application to a simple weighted average of vertical chords. Finally, results demonstrate horizontal position control using magnetic actuators and an optical observer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulation of high-frequency dissolved oxygen dynamics in a shallow estuary, the Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay

Understanding shallow water biogeochemical dynamics is a challenge in coastal regions, due to the presence of highly variable land-water interface fluxes, tight coupling with sediment processes, tidal dynamics, and diurnal variability in biogeochemical processes. While the deployment of continuous monitoring devices has improved our understanding of high-frequency (12 - 24 hours) variability and spatial heterogeneity in shallow regions, mechanistic modeling of these dynamics has lagged behind conceptual and empirical models. The inherent complexity of shallow water systems is represented in the Corsica River estuary, a small basin within the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem, where abundant monitoring data have been collected from long-term monitoring stations, continuous monitoring sensors, synoptic sensor surveys, and measurements of sediment-water fluxes. A state-of-the-art modeling system, the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM), was applied to the Corsica domain with a high-resolution grid and nutrient loads from the most recent version of the Chesapeake Bay watershed model. The Corsica SCHISM model reproduced observed high-frequency variability in dissolved oxygen, as well as seasonal variability in chlorophyll-a and sediment-water fluxes. Time-series signal analyses using Empirical Model Decomposition and spectral analysis revealed that the diurnal and M2 tide frequencies are the dominant high-frequency modes and physical transport contributes a larger share to dissolved oxygen budgets than biogeochemical processes on an hourly time scale. Heterogeneity and patchiness in dissolved oxygen resulting from phytoplankton distributions and geometry-driven eddies amplify the physical transport effect, and on longer time scales oxygen is controlled more by photosynthesis and respiration. Our simulation demonstrates that interactions among physical and biological dynamics generate complex high-frequency variability in water quality and non-linear reposes to nutrient loading and environmental forcing in shallow water systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NREL Price Series Developed for the ARPA-E FLECCS Program

The price data for four regions (CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, and PJM-W) are developed using the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion as described in (Gagnon et al. 2020). The reference ReEDS case chosen is based on the 2020 Standard Scenario Mid-case, which uses the 2020 ReEDS model version (Cole et al. 2020; Ho et al. 2021). All ReEDS model inputs use 2020 Standard Scenarios Mid-case assumptions except for CO2 prices, which are implemented as linearly increasing CO2 price trajectories beginning at $0/tCO2 in 2020 and ending at either $100/tCO2 or $150/tCO2 in 2035 to dive capacity expansion towards a low-carbon system that could support CCS deployment. However, these scenarios also prohibit CCS deployment in this time frame so that resulting price data are not influenced by the deployment and operation of CCS itself. Implementing the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion tool, PLEXOS is then simulated using the 2035 ReEDS infrastructure for both CO2 price scenarios, with the following model version and setup: PLEXOS Version: 8.2 Solver: Xpress-MP 35.01.01 Mixed integer optimization relative gap 1% System configuration: • Total number of nodes: 134 (consistent with ReEDS balancing areas) • Line losses enforced using piecewise linear approximation • Energy dump was enabled Price data is aggregated to the ISO/RTO level using load-weighted averages. References: Cole, Wesley, Sean Corcoran, Nathaniel Gates, Daniel Mai, Trieu, and Paritosh Das. 2020. “2020 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook.” NREL/TP-6A20-77442. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77442.pdf. Gagnon, Pieter, Will Frazier, Elaine Hale, and Wesley Cole. 2020. “Cambium Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78239. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://doi.org/10.2172/1734551. Ho, Jonathan, Jonathon Becker, Maxwell Brown, Patrick Brown, Ilya (ORCID:0000000284917814) Chernyakhovskiy, Stuart Cohen, Wesley (ORCID:000000029194065X) Cole, et al. 2021. “Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78195. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.2172/1788425.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗