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DOE OSTI2025

Structure-performance relationships in lignin-based transesterification vitrimers: The role of lignin structural features

Lignin has been hailed as an ideal renewable alternative for petrochemical-based prepolymers in material synthesis for a sustainable and circular economy, due to its abundant aromatic network and high carbon content. However, the properties and performance of lignin-derived macromolecules are strongly influenced by the lignin itself. While numerous studies have explored the impact of lignin content on the thermomechanical performance of lignin-based vitrimers, literature on how the inherent structural features of lignin affect these properties is scanty. In this study, hardwood organosolv lignin was fractionated in ethyl acetate, ethanol, and acetone to obtain lignin fractions with varying structural characteristics. These fractions were then modified through carboxylation and crosslinked with epoxidized soybean oil (ESO) at a hydroxyl to epoxy group ratio of 1:1 to produce lignin-based transesterification vitrimers (LVs). The thermal properties (i.e. glass transition temperature and thermal stability), tensile strength, storage modulus, and stress relaxation behavior of the LVs were studied and carefully related to the structural features of lignin. The results revealed a positive relationship between strong hydroxyl content in modified lignin and the tensile strength (5.10–9.71 MPa), storage modulus (1099.4 – 1372.8 MPa), crosslinking density, and stress relaxation of the LVs. Additionally, both the storage modulus and tensile strength exhibited a positive relationship with the ratio of rigid linkages in modified lignin, while lignin molecular weight was found to significantly impact the thermal properties of LVs (i.e Tg and thermal stability). This study not only highlights the valorization of lignin in vitrimer synthesis but also provide insights for designing lignin-based materials with tailored properties for specific applications.

Bio-based polymer↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Approximation Framework of Embodied Energy of Safety: Insights and Analysis

Transportation safety, as a critical component of an efficient and reliable transportation system, has been extensively studied with respect to societal economic impacts by transportation agencies and policy officials. However, the embodied energy impact of safety, other than induced congestion, is lacking in studies. This research proposes an energy equivalence of safety (EES) framework to provide a holistic view of the long-term energy and fuel consequences of motor vehicle crashes, incorporating both induced congestion and impacts from lost human productivity resulting from injury and fatal accidents and the energy content resulting from all consequences and activities from a crash. The method utilizes a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to national energy consumed in a framework that bridges the gap between safety and energy, leveraging extensive studies of the economic impact of motor vehicle crashes. The energy costs per fatal, injury, and property-damage-only (PDO) crashes in gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) in 2017 were found to be 200,259, 4442, and 439, respectively, which are significantly greater than impacts from induced congestion alone. The results from the motor vehicle crash data show a decreasing trend of EES per crash type from 2010 and 2017, due primarily in part to a decreasing ratio of total energy consumed to GDP over those years. In addition to the temporal analysis, we conducted a spatial analysis addressing national-, state-, and local-level EES comparisons by using the proposed framework, illustrating its applicability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino-nucleus cross section impacts on neutrino oscillation measurements

The challenges in neutrino-nucleus cross section modeling and its impact on neutrino oscillation experiments are widely recognized. However, a comprehensive and theoretically robust estimation of cross section uncertainties has been lacking, and few studies have quantitatively examined their impact on oscillation measurements. In this work, we evaluate the effect of cross section uncertainties on oscillation parameters using setups inspired by NOvA and DUNE. To characterize these uncertainties, we adopt multiple neutrino-nucleus event generators and simulate a realistic experimental procedure that incorporates near-detector data and near-to-far-detector extrapolation. Our results confirm that cross section uncertainties cannot significantly bias oscillation results in current statistics-dominated experiments like NOvA. However, they could lead to substantial bias for future systematics-dominated experiments like DUNE, even when near-detector data are employed to mitigate uncertainties. These findings underscore the need for further studies on the quantitative impacts of cross section modeling, improved strategies to utilize near-detector data and the PRISM concept, and more robust cross section models to optimize the success of future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Latent Energy and Snow Fall Speed on a Wintertime Midlatitude Cyclone

This study aimed to understand the impacts of latent energy as well as snow fall speeds on precipitation properties and synoptic-scale storm characteristics of a wintertime midlatitude cyclone. Simulations of a potent winter storm that impacted the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains of the United States in February 2017 were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with latent heating or cooling from individual microphysical processes systematically turned off and fall speeds adjusted by ±50%. Results indicated substantial impacts on the microphysical characteristics of the simulated storm to fall speed, cooling from sublimation, and warming from deposition. The impacts of cooling and warming were manifested as differences in accumulated snowfall. Increased (decreased) fall speeds led to smaller (larger) ice crystals and total mass, resulting in offsetting effects on the precipitation flux, and thus minimal impacts on snowfall and large-scale characteristics of the storm. Warming and cooling associated with deposition and sublimation, respectively, impacted the synoptic-scale dynamics, whereby removing warming from deposition resulted in an increased meridional temperature gradient near the jet stream, thus increasing the jet strength and causing it to be more westerly with less curvature aloft. This in turn limited upper-level divergence, creating a weaker surface low and shifting the precipitation shield southward. The opposite occurred with the removal of latent cooling due to sublimation. This study highlights the potential importance of latent energy associated with ice sublimation and deposition and fall speeds in the larger-scale characteristics of winter storms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The s process in massive stars, a benchmark for neutron capture reaction rates

A clear definition of the contribution from the slow neutron-capture process (s process) to the solar abundances between Fe and the Sr-Zr region is a crucial challenge for nuclear astrophysics. Robust s-process predictions are necessary to disentangle the contribution from other stellar processes producing elements in the same mass region. Nuclear uncertainties are affecting s-process calculations, but most of the needed nuclear input are accessible to present nuclear experiments or they will be in the near future. Neutron-capture rates have a great impact on the s process in massive stars, which is a fundamental source for the solar abundances of the lighter s-process elements heavier than Fe (weak s-process component). In this work we present a new nuclear sensitivity study to explore the impact on the s process in massive stars of 86 neutron-capture rates, including all the reactions between C and Si and between Fe and Zr. We derive the impact of the rates at the end of the He-burning core and at the end of the C-burning shell, where the 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction is is the main neutron source. We confirm the relevance of the light isotopes capturing neutrons in competition with the Fe seeds as a crucial feature of the s process in massive stars. For heavy isotopes we study the propagation of the neutron-capture uncertainties, finding a clear difference of the impact of Fe and Co isotope rates with respect to the rates of heavier stable isotopes. The local uncertainty propagation due to the neutron-capture rates at the s-process branching points is also considered, discussing the example of 85 Kr. The complete results of our study for all the 86 neutron-capture rates are available online. Finally, we present the impact on the weak s process of the neutron-capture rates included in the new ASTRAL library (v0.2).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Field Demonstration and Adoption Impacts of an Affordable Thermoelectric Heat Pump

This study presents the design, field validation, and utility impacts of an air source heat pump that uses thermoelectric (TE) technology to provide supplemental heating at outside air temperatures below 17°F. Conventional heat pumps experience reduced heating capacity and COP at low outdoor temperatures due to the temperature difference between the source and demand sides of the vapor compression cycle. Consequently, during colder months, supplemental heating such as electric resistance or natural gas furnace is often needed to provide additional warmth, which increases the overall equipment and energy costs. To address this challenge, a TE subcooler (an array of solid-state, thermoelectric modules that provides heat pumping using non-vapor compression technique) is fabricated and integrated with the vapor compression cycle of a conventional air-source heat pump. In colder ambient conditions, TE subcooler exchanges heat with the refrigerant to provide additional subcooling, thereby enhancing the capacity of the heat pump. The operation of thermoelectric-integrated heat pump was demonstrated in an occupied single-family home in Nashville, TN. The TE subcooler increased the system’s heating capacity at 15°F outdoor temperature by 25–30% and reduced electricity demand by 10%. It also met the heating load in the house without supplemental electric resistance down to 5°F outdoors, delivering the additional heat at nearly 80% greater efficiency compared to electric resistance heating. With a modest first cost increment of 10–15% over conventional single-speed heat pumps, this approach offers a promising, energy-efficient solution to accelerate residential heat pump adoption in the U.S.

KRISHNAMOORTHY, Sreenidhi [Electric Power Research↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vegetation clumping modulates global photosynthesis through adjusting canopy light environment

Abstract The spatial dispersion of photoelements within a vegetation canopy, quantified by the clumping index (CI), directly regulates the within‐canopy light environment and photosynthesis rate, but is not commonly implemented in terrestrial biosphere models to estimate the ecosystem carbon cycle. A few global CI products have been developed recently with remote sensing measurements, making it possible to examine the global impacts of CI. This study deployed CI in the radiative transfer scheme of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) and used the revised CLM5 to quantitatively evaluate the extent to which CI can affect canopy absorbed radiation and gross primary production (GPP), and for the first time, considering the uncertainty and seasonal variation of CI with multiple remote sensing products. Compared to the results without considering the CI impact, the revised CLM5 estimated that sunlit canopy absorbed up to 9%–15% and 23%–34% less direct and diffuse radiation, respectively, while shaded canopy absorbed 3%–18% more diffuse radiation across different biome types. The CI impacts on canopy light conditions included changes in canopy light absorption, and sunlit–shaded leaf area fraction related to nitrogen distribution and thus the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylase activity ( V cmax ), which together decreased photosynthesis in sunlit canopy by 5.9–7.2 PgC year −1 while enhanced photosynthesis by 6.9–8.2 PgC year −1 in shaded canopy. With higher light use efficiency of shaded leaves, shaded canopy increased photosynthesis compensated and exceeded the lost photosynthesis in sunlit canopy, resulting in 1.0 ± 0.12 PgC year −1 net increase in GPP. The uncertainty of GPP due to the different input CI datasets was much larger than that caused by CI seasonal variations, and was up to 50% of the magnitude of GPP interannual variations in the tropical regions. This study highlights the necessity of considering the impacts of CI and its uncertainty in terrestrial biosphere models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Translation of DNA Damage Response Inhibitors as Chemoradiation Sensitizers From the Laboratory to the Clinic

Combination therapies with agents targeting the DNA damage response (DDR) offer an opportunity to selectively enhance the therapeutic index of chemoradiation or eliminate use of chemotherapy altogether. The successful translation of DDR inhibitors to clinical use requires investigating both their direct actions as (chemo)radiosensitizers and their potential to stimulate tumor immunogenicity. Beginning with high-throughput screening using both viability and DNA damage-reporter assays, followed by validation in gold-standard radiation colony-forming assays and in vitro assessment of mechanistic effects on the DDR, we describe proven strategies and methods leading to the clinical development of DDR inhibitors both with radiation alone and in combination with chemoradiation. Beyond these in vitro studies, we discuss the impact of key features of human xenograft and syngeneic mouse models on the relevance of in vivo tumor efficacy studies, particularly with regard to the immunogenic effects of combined therapy with radiation and DDR inhibitors. Finally, we describe recent technological advances in radiation delivery (using the small animal radiation research platform) that allow for conformal, clinically relevant radiation therapy in mouse models. This overall approach is critical to the successful clinical development and ultimate Food and Drug Administration approval of DDR inhibitors as (chemo)radiation sensitizers.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning: Preprint

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Impact of Capture Technology A Review of DOE-Sponsored FEED Studies

The slides were presented at the USEA and FECM organized “Workshop on Measurement, Monitoring and Controlling Potential Environmental Impacts from the Installation of Point Source Capture”. The slides discuss insight regarding the environmental impact of capture system implementation gained from reviewing public FEED reports completed under FOA 2058. The slides were edited to add language requested by DOE and will published on the workshop website.

Homsy, Sally↗

DOE OSTI2020

Air quality impact of the Northern California Camp Fire of November 2018

The Northern California Camp Fire that took place in November 2018 was one of the most damaging environmental events in California history. Here, we analyze ground-based station observations of airborne particulate matter that has a diameter <2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) across Northern California and conduct numerical simulations of the Camp Fire using the Weather Research and Forecasting model online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Simulations are evaluated against ground-based observations of PM 2.5 , black carbon, and meteorology, as well as satellite measurements, such as Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aerosol layer height and aerosol index. The Camp Fire led to an increase in Bay Area PM 2.5 to over 50 µg m –3 for nearly 2 weeks, with localized peaks exceeding 300 µg m –3 . Using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) high-resolution fire detection products, the simulations reproduce the magnitude and evolution of surface PM 2.5 concentrations, especially downwind of the wildfire. The overall spatial patterns of simulated aerosol plumes and their heights are comparable with the latest satellite products from TROPOMI. WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations are carried out to analyze uncertainties that arise from fire emissions, meteorological conditions, feedback of aerosol radiative effects on meteorology, and various physical parameterizations, including the planetary boundary layer model and the plume rise model. Downwind PM 2.5 concentrations are sensitive to both flaming and smoldering emissions over the fire, so the uncertainty in the satellite-derived fire emission products can directly affect the air pollution simulations downwind. Our analysis also shows the importance of land surface and boundary layer parameterization in the fire simulation, which can result in large variations in magnitude and trend of surface PM 2.5 . Inclusion of aerosol radiative feedback moderately improves PM 2.5 simulations, especially over the most polluted days. Results of this study can assist in the development of data assimilation systems as well as air quality forecasting of health exposures and economic impact studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Bias Row Noise to Photometric Accuracy: Case Study Based on a Scientific CMOS Detector

Abstract We tested a new model of CMOS detector manufactured by the Gpixel Inc, for potential space astronomical application. In laboratory, we obtain some bias images under the typical application environment. In these bias images, clear random row noise pattern is observed. The row noise also contains some characteristic spatial frequencies. We quantitatively estimated the impact of this feature to photometric measurements, by making simulated images. We compared different bias noise types under strict parameter control. The result shows the row noise will significantly deteriorate the photometric accuracy. It effectively increases the readout noise by a factor of 2–10. However, if it is properly removed, the image quality and photometric accuracy will be significantly improved.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power System Operational Impacts of Electric Vehicle Dynamic Wireless Charging

The electrification of the transportation sector poses an opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. Electric vehicle (EV) charging through dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), known as roadway electrification, could shift EV demand profiles to better coincide with renewable electricity generation. However, this would be a very large new load and few studies evaluate the regional impacts of DWPT charging in a power transmission system. This paper defines methods that address dataset generation for passenger vehicle trips and models to evaluate regional impacts for this emerging technology. Household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data form localized EV demand profiles through discrete-event simulation. This data serves as exogenous inputs for a Production Cost Model (PCM) of a synthetic transmission system based on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas's (ERCOT) network. EV charging methods are compared for both a 2018 baseline generation mixture and a high-renewable generation case incorporating 20 GW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The PCM employs unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) models to compare financial, environmental, and grid reliability impacts from EV charging across passenger EV adoption levels. In-transit charging could reduce grid operational costs by as much as 1.49%, with up to $13.7B saved in annual vehicle operational costs for consumers compared to gas-powered vehicles. Health impacts analysis from power plant and vehicle tailpipe emissions from this study show net health benefits increase by 40% for in-transit charging coupled with high renewable generation. Renewable resources provide an avenue for cost-effective in-transit charging with reduced emissions. The combination of dataset generation and open-source power system modeling establish a foundation for the holistic evaluation of regional DWPT impacts.

dynamic wireless power transfer↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrification Futures Study

Through the Electrification Futures Study (EFS), NREL explored the impacts of widespread electrification in all U.S. economic sectors. For the multiyear study, NREL and its research partners - Electric Power Research Institute, Evolved Energy Research, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Northern Arizona University, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory - used multiple analytic tools and models to develop and assess electrification scenarios designed to quantify potential energy, economic, and environmental impacts to the U.S. power system and broader economy. This presentation summarizes the analysis and key findings from across the EFS publications, with a focus on the data and results that are most relevant - and of most interest - to the state of Montana.

EFS↗