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DOE OSTI2014

sparse-msrf:A package for sparse modeling and estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emission fields

The software is used to fit models of emission fields (e.g., fossil-fuel CO2 emissions) to sparse measurements of gaseous concentrations. Its primary aim is to provide an implementation and a demonstration for the algorithms and models developed in J. Ray, V. Yadav, A. M. Michalak, B. van Bloemen Waanders and S. A. McKenna, "A multiresolution spatial parameterization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions", accepted, Geoscientific Model Development, 2014. The software can be used to estimate emissions of non-reactive gases such as fossil-fuel CO2, methane etc. The software uses a proxy of the emission field being estimated (e.g., for fossil-fuel CO2, a population density map is a good proxy) to construct a wavelet model for the emission field. It then uses a shrinkage regression algorithm called Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP) to fit the wavelet model to concentration measurements, using an atmospheric transport model to relate emission and concentration fields. Algorithmic novelties described in the paper above (1) ensure that the estimated emission fields are non-negative, (2) allow the use of guesses for emission fields to accelerate the estimation processes and (3) ensure that under/overestimates in the guesses do not skew the estimation.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2018

Crop Stem Width Estimation in Highly Cluttered Field Environment

We present two methods for estimation of crop stem width on small mobile robots. Stem width is an important phenotype needed by breeders and plant-biologists to measure plant growth, however, its manual measurement is cumbersome, in-accurate, and inefficient. The presented methods use a common image processing core that is designed to extract the foreground in the presence of significant leaf and stem clutter, view of other rows, and varying lighting, from a side-facing USB camera mounted on a small mobile robot. Using the extracted foreground, one approach uses estimates of robot velocity from wheel encoders and dense optical flow to estimate depth, while the other employs filtering of the LIDAR 2-D point cloud to estimate the depth. Both methods have been exhaustively validated against available hand-measurements on biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in real experimental fields. Experiments indicate that both methods are also applicable to other crops with cylindrical stems without significant modifications. The width estimation match on sorghum is 92.5% (using vision) and 98.2% (using vision and LIDAR) when compared against manual measurements by trained agronomists. Thus, our results clearly establish the feasibility of using small robots for stem-width estimation in realistic field settings. Furthermore, the techniques presented here can be utilized for automating other phenotypic measurements.

Choudhuri, Anwesa↗

DOE OSTI2021

Introducing the GeoRePORT Resource Size Tool: Reporting on Geothermal Resource Size Estimations Using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT): Preprint

The Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) was developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office to assist in identifying and pursuing long-term investment strategies through the development of a resource reporting protocol. The assessment protocols used in GeoRePORT allow for comparison of project attributes across locations and geological settings to understand the feasibility of geothermal development. This work introduces the Resource Size Tool, a new feature within the GeoRePORT package that compiles two independent methods for estimating geothermal resource size in terms of energy capacity in MW. Energy production potential for twenty-three case studies was estimated with the Resource Size Tool in order to 1) generate a reasonable range of resource size estimates for a particular geothermal field; 2) illustrate the advantages and limitations of each methodology (such as data input requirements, estimate accuracy and precision, and the appropriate circumstances of use); and 3) test the ability of the resource size tool to provide useful and accurate information for geothermal stakeholders. The tool employs two methods widely used in the geothermal industry: (1) USGS Volumetric and (2) Power Density. Results from our case studies show general overlap between these two methods in terms of resource size estimates; however, they also reveal key differences between the two approaches that should be considered when using such estimates to drive development. First, the two methods rely on different input parameters and therefore one method may be more appropriate and/or accurate for a given project than the other. Second, the Power Density method was found to generate wider ranges of resource size predictions, more consistently aligning with actual power production of the field but with larger scales of error; whereas the USGS Volumetric method predicts narrower ranges but tends to overestimate when compared to current MW production. Future work will refine variables used in the methods with input data from other sections of GeoRePORT and modify uncertainty levels based on the particular datasets used for a given project.

geological↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Transferability of Machine Learning Based Volume Estimation Models

High-quality traffic volume data is essential for efficient transportation planning and operations. However, such high-quality data is expensive to collect, owing primarily to the high capital cost of installing and maintaining continuous counting stations (CCSs). Recent availability of probe-based vehicle data offers a cost-effective solution for increasing the observability of traffic volumes. However, having ample ground truth traffic data is a prerequisite for developing robust volume estimation models. Though this might not be a big issue in many states, states with scarce CCS data might be able to benefit from robust volume estimation models developed in (adjacent) data-rich states. While there is a reasonable amount of spatial transferability research in the transportation domain, there is a dearth of knowledge on the spatial transferability of probe-based volume estimation models. To address this gap, this paper explores spatial transferability of volume estimation models developed from data in three states (Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania). Results indicate that it is extremely important to maintain temporal consistency when attempting spatial transferability of volume estimation models. It was also found that models trained on regions with lower peak traffic volumes will limit the performance of models transferred to states with higher peak hourly traffic volumes. Corroborating findings from existing spatial transferability research on other topics, it was found that a meta-model (developed using data from multiple states) performs better than volume estimation models developed within any one of the states.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Future of EPA's Waste Estimation Support Tool - 17227

The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) is a GIS-based decision support tool for estimating the characteristics, amount, and residual radioactivity of waste generated from remediation and cleanup activities after a radiological incident, including those involving radiological dispersal devices, improvised nuclear devices, and nuclear power plants. WEST has been released to the public and has been used in numerous national level exercises and planning scenarios; however, it continues to be improved and refined to add additional functionality and performance. Since its inception, WEST has undergone a myriad of updates, routinely ensuring compatibility with ESRI's ArcGIS and FEMA's Hazus, a tool for estimating potential losses from earthquakes, wind, and flood events. Furthermore, recent enhancements have added reporting and mapping features and multi-state support. Over time, this progress has strained WEST's Microsoft{sup C} Excel based platform. The inherent limitations of Excel have limited the capacity of WEST and narrowed the scope of potential enhancements. Recent collaborative efforts between the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS's) Science and Technology Directorate (S and T) and EPA will see the introduction of a new software platform for easing memory limitations and new and innovative features for improving the accuracy of waste estimates. The planned enhancements include: 1) Systems approach: measure or predict the outcome of decisions associated with disaster response (e.g., decontamination efficacy vs. waste) and to a greater extent, the overall resource demand (e.g., cost, time, etc.); 2) Custom infrastructure data and international support: accommodate non-US building information where available and also add new data and information on recently used decontamination technologies as applied in a real-world incident; 3) Additional waste factors: addition of waste factors that are unique to wide area scenarios such as vehicles and trees as they will likely contribute in a significant manner to the overall waste stream;4) Site analysis and logistics: apply spatial information and analysis technologies to locate and prioritize potential waste staging or storage sites; and use GIS-based logistics planning to better organize, route, and estimate the cost, time, and logistical requirements (i.e., resource demand) associated with transporting large volumes of waste from a disaster-stricken area to waste staging or storage sites; 5) Decontamination technologies: introduce new decontamination technologies, better understand the feasibility and efficacy of new and preexisting decontamination technologies when applied to a wide area incident, and use historical incidents to ground truth waste results; and 6) Resource demand: ability to estimate resource demand information associated with decontamination technologies, waste staging and storage, and logistical information for transporting waste. This paper will describe the next version of WEST (WEST 4.0), and how the aforementioned enhancements will contribute to improving the planning and response capabilities of the tool. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Cylindrical Kernel Density Estimators For Monte Carlo Neutron Transport Reactor Physics Problems

Kernel Density Estimators (KDEs) have been investigated as an alternative to histogram tallies in Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations for capturing spatially-resolved quantities such as scalar flux and reaction rate densities. KDEs are non-parametric estimators that show potential for producing smooth estimates of quantities of interest with reduced variance compared to traditional histogram tallies. Furthermore, KDEs obtain estimates of the underlying distribution at user-defined points without requiring an underlying mesh, thus making KDEs an attractive potential alternative to histogram tallies. Recent work has introduced the Mean Free Path based KDE (MFP KDE) in order to capture distributions with large curvature at material interfaces, e.g. absorption reaction rates in UO{sub 2} fuel in light water reactors. However, the multivariate MFP KDE produces inaccuracies in the form of localized spikes in problems with material cross sections that contain large resonances. Since the MFP KDE works well in one dimension, it is hypothesized that a different MFP KDE formulation where the normalization coefficient only contains one factor of the cross section would be able to capture these distributions with large curvature without producing spikes in the estimate. This can be accomplished by using a cylindrical KDE whose 2-D support area is wedge-shaped and applying the MFP KDE to the radial component of the cylindrical KDE. These cylindrical KDEs use 2-D (r,θ) cylindrical coordinates with no dependence in axial dimension z. This paper derives the cylindrical KDE and the cylindrical MFP KDE and tests them on a reactor physics pin-cell benchmark problem, producing accurate estimates of flux and reaction rate densities with differences less than 0.5% when compared to a reference histogram. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensuring Solution Uniqueness in Three-Phase Power System State Estimation

This paper is concerned with the issue of potential non-unique solutions in three-phase state estimation. Theory of observability analysis for positive sequence power system state estimation is based on certain assumptions that avoid possibility of multiple solutions. Also, it is shown that observability of a positive sequence network remains independent of the network parameters or the operating state. When extending single-phase observability analysis directly to the three-phase case, this paper considers the possibility of converging to multiple solutions, i.e. solution non-uniqueness, even for cases where state estimator successfully converges. The study illustrates via numerical examples the likelihood of converging to entirely different solutions for certain network parameters. It also examines how the operating state, particularly under unbalanced loading, leads to solution non-uniqueness. The paper then describes an alternative approach to ensure a unique solution in three-phase state estimation. This method aims to accurately and uniquely estimate the state of any unbalanced three-phase system, irrespective of load imbalance, network configuration, existence of synchronous generators or transformers.

Power System State Estimation, Three-Phase, Distri↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resilient Distributed Field Estimation

We study resilient distributed field estimation under measurement attacks. A network of agents or devices measures a large, spatially distributed physical field parameter. An adversary arbitrarily manipulates the measurements of some of the agents. Each agent's goal is to process its measurements and information received from its neighbors to estimate only a few specific components of the field. Here, we present SAFE, the saturating adaptive field estimator, a consensus + innovations distributed field estimator that is resilient to measurement attacks. Under sufficient conditions on the compromised measurement streams, the physical coupling between the field and the agents' measurements, and the connectivity of the cyber communication network, SAFE guarantees that each agent's estimate converges almost surely to the true value of the components of the parameter in which the agent is interested. Finally, we illustrate the performance of SAFE through numerical examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

First-Principles Cost Estimation of a Sodium Fast Reactor Nuclear Plant

A multi-tiered cost analysis is performed to estimate full costs of a nuclear power plant (NPP) based on sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) technology. To address the lack of fully transparent cost estimations from past undertakings for NPPs, we have developed a detailed and first-principles-based cost estimate for a generalized SFR NPP. Our intent is to achieve a high degree of transparency with our cost assumptions and develop a cost model that is flexible and easily extendable to variations in NPP design and other nuclear reactor types. Furthermore, we strive to achieve a clear organization of costs and complete identification of key cost drivers based on first principles. To this end, the cost results of our analysis as given in Table 24 and Table 25 are organized and categorized into a code of accounts (COA) under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Varying degrees of first-principles methods are employed, such as design for manufacture and assembly® (DFMA® ), to elucidate costs in all process levels of the plant equipment, buildings and site structures, personnel, and other miscellaneous but significant cost elements. These approaches have been successfully applied in past cost analysis projects and are designed to enable rapid and flexible cost estimation. Application of these techniques for evaluating NPP costs is similar in concept to the full, detailed estimation of construction and fabrication costs determined in a later stage of NPP development. Note that our approach tries to avoid use of other past analysis results and data such as those from the legacy Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) Program, as these resources are based on historical NPP costs and thus may not be indicative of new reactor technologies or construction and fabrication/manufacturing techniques. However, we provide a comparison of our SFR NPP cost results in Table 90 against those included in the EEDB for a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating the State of Charge in Lithium Primary Batteries: Recent Advances and Critical Insights

Lithium primary batteries (LPBs) remain essential in critical applications such as military, aerospace, medical and emergency devices, and portable electronics. Their superior energy density over lithium-ion batteries offers a significant advantage for long-duration use. Therefore, accurate estimation of the state of charge (SoC) is essential for ensuring the reliable and safe operation of these batteries. While extensive research has been conducted on SoC estimation techniques for lithium-ion secondary batteries, LPBs present unique challenges that complicate accurate SoC estimation. Moreover, research on nondestructive testing techniques for SoC estimation in LPBs is significantly lacking. In this review article, it is aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of recent advancements in SoC estimation for LPBs and generates new insights and directions for future research. Herein, existing methods are discussed and their effectiveness and mechanisms are identified, and areas for further optimization are outlined. More theoretical/experimental efforts to advance SoC detection in LPBs is recommended due to challenges identified with existing techniques.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Error estimates to smooth solutions of semi-discrete discontinuous Galerkin methods with quadrature rules for scalar conservation laws

Here, we focus on error estimates to smooth solutions of semi-discrete discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods with quadrature rules for scalar conservation laws. The main techniques we use are energy estimate and Taylor expansion first introduced by Zhang and Shu in (Zhang and Shu, SIAM J Num Anal 42 (2004), 641–666). We show that, with p K (piecewise polynomials of degree k) finite elements in 1D problems, if the quadrature over elements is exact for polynomials of degree (2k) error estimates of O(h k+1/2 ) are obtained for general monotone fluxes, and optimal estimates of O(h k+1 ) are obtained for upwind fluxes. For multidimensional problems, if in addition quadrature over edges is exact for polynomials of degree (2k+1), error estimates of O(h k ) are obtained for general monotone fluxes, and O(h k+1/2 ) are obtained for monotone and sufficiently smooth numerical fluxes. Numerical results validate our analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of Errors in Stress Distributions Computed in Finite Element Simulations of Polycrystals

The accuracy of the stresses predicted from crystal plasticity-based finite element formulation depends on estimation and control of the errors associated with the discretization. In the current work, the errors in the stress distribution are estimated in virtual polycrystalline samples of α-phase titanium (hexagonal close-packed phase of Ti–6Al– 4 V). To estimate the error, the stress field, which does not possess inter-element continuity, is smoothed over a grain using an L 2 projection, thereby providing continuous stress distributions with inter-element continuity. The differences between the continuous (smooth) and discontinuous (raw) stress fields are calculated at individual Gauss quadrature points and used to estimate errors for corresponding elements and grains. Error estimations are performed for a Voronoi-tessellated microstructure, an equiaxed microstructure, and two microstructures with varying grain sizes for tensile loading extending into the fully plastic regime (≈ 5% extension). Magnitudes of the errors are found to depend on microstructural characteristics, particularly the shape and size of grains. Samples having variations in grain size or having less spherical grains exhibited higher errors than samples with uniformly sized, equiaxed grains, with the size variations having a more pronounced effect. In conclusion, errors correlate with proximity to grain boundaries at small (elastic) strains and with deformation-induced features (deformation bands) at large strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Validation of spatiodemographic estimates produced through data fusion of small area census records and household microdata

Techniques such as Iterative Proportional Fitting have been previously suggested as a means to generate new data with the demographic granularity of individual surveys and the spatial granularity of small area tabulations of censuses and surveys. This article explores internal and external validation approaches for synthetic, small area, household- and individual-level microdata using a case study for Bangladesh. Using data from the Bangladesh Census 2011 and the Demographic and Health Survey, we produce estimates of infant mortality rate and other household attributes for small areas using a variation of an iterative proportional fitting method called P-MEDM. We conduct an internal validation to determine: whether the model accurately recreates the spatial variation of the input data, how each of the variables performed overall, and how the estimates compare to the published population totals. We conduct an external validation by comparing the estimates with indicators from the 2009 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) for Bangladesh to benchmark how well the estimates compared to a known dataset which was not used in the original model. The results indicate that the estimation process is viable for regions that are better represented in the microdata sample, but also revealed the possibility of strong overfitting in sparsely sampled sub-populations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Using Pressure and Volumetric Approaches to Estimate CO2 Storage Capacity in Deep Saline Aquifers

Various approaches are used to evaluate the capacity of saline aquifers to store CO 2 , resulting in a wide range of capacity estimates for a given aquifer. The two approaches most used are the volumetric “open aquifer” and “closed aquifer” approaches. We present four full-scale aquifer cases, where CO 2 storage capacity is evaluated both volumetrically (with “open” and/or “closed” approaches) and through flow modeling. These examples show that the “open aquifer” CO 2 storage capacity estimation can strongly exceed the cumulative CO 2 injection from the flow model, whereas the “closed aquifer” estimates are a closer approximation to the flow-model derived capacity. An analogy to oil recovery mechanisms is presented, where the primary oil recovery mechanism is compared to CO 2 aquifer storage without producing formation water; and the secondary oil recovery mechanism (water flooding) is compared to CO 2 aquifer storage performed simultaneously with extraction of water for pressure maintenance. This analogy supports the finding that the “closed aquifer” approach produces a better estimate of CO 2 storage without water extraction, and highlights the need for any CO 2 storage estimate to specify whether it is intended to represent CO 2 storage capacity with or without water extraction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to estimate soil organic carbon stocks of agricultural fields? perspectives using ex-ante evaluation

Estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of agricultural fields has a range of important applications from development of sustainable management practices to monitoring carbon stocks. There are many estimation strategies with the potential for more reliable estimates of SOC stock and more efficient use of soil sampling and analysis resources, especially by leveraging readily available auxiliary information such as remote sensing. However, concrete guidance for strategy selection is lacking. This study narrows this gap with a comparison of strategies for estimating deep SOC stock (0–60 cm) in a prototypical field. Using high density SOC stock measurements and simulation, we built on past studies by 1) ex-ante evaluating a large number of strategy options, 2) using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of the comparison, and 3) considering multiple Bayesian models to assess sensitivity to this modeling choice. We found that, using readily available auxiliary information, both balanced and stratified sampling offer substantial improvements over simple random sampling. The auxiliary information most important for this improvement is a Sentinel-2 SOC index = blue / (green × red), followed by the topographic wetness index. We found that these results are robust to the choice of mapping method, but that there is uncertainty in the magnitude of improvement. Here, we recommend future studies implement this Bayesian approach for simulated ex-ante evaluation of SOC stock estimation strategies across more fields to investigate the generalizability of these findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of cyber attacks on distributed compressive sensing based state estimation in power distribution grids

Modern power distribution grids suffer from multiple vulnerabilities due to the tight integration between the physical system and the cyber infrastructure. Sophisticated and malicious cyber attacks continue to adversely impact the grid operation leading to performance degradation, service interruption, and grid failure. State estimation plays an essential role in grid monitoring and advancing cyber-attack situational awareness. In this regard, this paper first proposes a distributed compressive sensing (CS) state estimation approach for an unobservable distribution grid. Further, the proposed distributed CS approach divides the distribution grid into sub-areas to perform local state estimation. Then an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) based iterative information exchange among neighboring areas is employed to complete the estimation process. In this estimation process, the impact of loss of measurement data, false data injection (FDI), replay, and neighborhood cyber-attacks is analyzed. Extensive simulations are performed on the IEEE 37-bus and IEEE 123-bus standard networks to demonstrate the algorithm’s robustness to the aforementioned cyber-attacks. A quantitative analysis of computational complexity and simulation time of the distributed CS based approach is also presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗