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At least 955 records · Page 53

Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

In-situ Photophysical Monitors and Corrective Algorithms for Photovoltaic Film Deposition and Rapid Thermal Processing in Scalable Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing

This project evaluated three photophysics-based approaches for in situ process monitoring of the scalable deposition of perovskite photovoltaic films. Based on stakeholder input and the results of laboratory trials and literature analysis, two techniques, angle resolved elastic light scattering (ARLS) and time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) were prototyped and demonstrated with a mixture of simulation, offline and online tests. Also, a hybrid gas flow and humidity control enclosure was constructed and demonstrated to stabilize the ambient conditions around the slot die deposition process and were demonstrated to meet the target humidity control in situ. Due in part to a delayed start and COVID-related lab restrictions and personnel changes, some of the milestones were not met. In spite of these challenges, however, both techniques were prototyped through several iterations and demonstrated significant promise for rapid in line perovskite characterization within the targeted characterization time windows and these techniques are under further development for use in DE-FOA000235:2357-1586. The TRPL system was fully mounted and demonstrated on the scaled slot die roll to roll and sheet coating systems at the Washington Clean Energy Testbeds (WCET). Motivated by significant internal and stakeholder interest, the successful prototyping achieved here, the ongoing need for in-situ characterization for the scale-up of perovskite manufacturing, and the benefits of in situ photophysical characterization for future funded process development research, we are continuing with the principle aims of the project to develop effect in situ photophysical probes for fast analysis of the optoelectronic and structural quality of sheet based and roll to roll process perovskites. TRPLS and ARLS probes proposed in the project are to be completed with external support from the Washington Research Foundation at the WCET. We are currently actively engaged in the acquisition of components and plan to complete and test the probes within three months. It is our intention that these probes will then be used in ongoing perovskite development with our research and commercialization partners including First Solar and other member of the US MAP consortium in future funded development work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

Mapping Rydberg States of H 2 with the Halfium R-Matrix Method

In this article, we use the Halfium R-matrix method to investigate the Rydberg states of the H 2 molecule up to n = 20, filling the gap above the low-lying bound states already calculated with configuration interaction packages. Moreover, we show that the use of Quantum Defect Theory scaling laws, allows for a comprehensive analysis of the regular patterns resulting from the coupling between Rydberg series and doubly excited states. The results should open the door for more efficient quasi-diabatization of the potential energy curves which is required for calculating cross sections and rate coefficients of the (e + H 2 + ) collisional processes, involved in the plasma modeling for fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Primordial nucleosynthesis and Dirac's large numbers hypothesis

Consideration is given to the analysis of Falik (1979) which attempted to show that the cosmological model proposed by Canuto and Hsieh (1978) in which the gravitational constant varies with time contradicts observations of primordial helium. It is shown that the analysis was based on the assumptions that (1) the energy density of radiation in local thermodynamic equilibrium is approximately equal to the fourth power of the equilibrium temperature, where the product of the equilibrium temperature with the scale factor of the Robertson-Walker metric is constant, and (2) the gravitational constant is approximately equal to the inverse of the time even at early cosmological epochs. These assumptions are demonstrated to be invalid in the scale covariant theory of gravitation used to develop the model, thus negating the conclusion that the Canuto and Hsieh model excludes the primordial synthesis of helium.

Canuto, V.↗

Radiant Energy Measurements from a Scaled Jet Engine Axisymmetric Exhaust Nozzle for a Baseline Code Validation Case

A non-flowing, electrically heated test rig was developed to verify computer codes that calculate radiant energy propagation from nozzle geometries that represent aircraft propulsion nozzle systems. Since there are a variety of analysis tools used to evaluate thermal radiation propagation from partially enclosed nozzle surfaces, an experimental benchmark test case was developed for code comparison. This paper briefly describes the nozzle test rig and the developed analytical nozzle geometry used to compare the experimental and predicted thermal radiation results. A major objective of this effort was to make available the experimental results and the analytical model in a format to facilitate conversion to existing computer code formats. For code validation purposes this nozzle geometry represents one validation case for one set of analysis conditions. Since each computer code has advantages and disadvantages based on scope, requirements, and desired accuracy, the usefulness of this single nozzle baseline validation case can be limited for some code comparisons.

Baumeister, Joseph F.↗

The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results. Linear calculations that include forcing from the AGCM variance of the tropical forcing and submonthly transients show a small impact on the variability over the Pacific/North American region compared with that of the base state differences.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact investigations will be an important aspect of the InSight mission. One of the scientific goals of the mission is a measurement of the current impact rate at Mars. Impacts will additionally inform the major goal of investigating the interior structure of Mars. In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge about seismic signals from impacts on the Earth, Moon, and laboratory experiments. We describe the generalized physical models that can be used to explain these signals. A discussion of the appropriate source time function for impacts is presented, along with spectral characteristics including the cutoff frequency and its dependence on impact momentum. Estimates of the seismic efficiency (ratio between seismic and impact energies) vary widely. Our preferred value for the seismic efficiency at Mars is 5 × 10−4, which we recommend using until we can measure it during the InSight mission, when seismic moments are not used directly. Effects of the material properties at the impact point and at the seismometer location are considered. We also discuss the processes by which airbursts and acoustic waves emanate from bolides, and the feasibility of detecting such signals. We then consider the case of impacts on Mars. A review is given of the current knowledge of present-day cratering on Mars: the current impact rate, characteristics of those impactors such as velocity and directions, and the morphologies of the craters those impactors create. Several methods of scaling crater size to impact energy are presented. The Martian atmosphere, although thin, will cause fragmentation of impactors, with implications for the resulting seismic signals. We also benchmark several different seismic modeling codes to be used in analysis of impact detections, and those codes are used to explore the seismic amplitude of impactinduced signals as a function of distance from the impact site. We predict a measurement of the current impact flux will be possible within the timeframe of the prime mission (one Mars year) with the detection of ∼ a few to several tens of impacts. However, the error bars on these predictions are large. Specific to the InSight mission, we list discriminators of seismic signals from impacts that will be used to distinguish them from marsquakes. We describe the role of the InSight Impacts Science Theme Group during mission operations, including a plan for possible night-time meteor imaging. The impacts detected by these methods during the InSight mission will be used to improve interior structure models, measure the seismic efficiency, and calculate the size frequency distribution of current impacts.

Ingrid Daubar↗

Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Fueling Station Corridors

In this short technical report, we explore the range of levelized costs of dispensed hydrogen (H2) from hydrogen refueling (or fueling) stations (HRS) for H2 heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) that are feasible in the 2030 timeframe. We explore different scenarios by varying hydrogen delivery distances, HRS sizes, HRS utilization rates, and economies of scale in the Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM). Thus, we observe how the contribution to the levelized cost of each supply chain component changes.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,HYDROGEN↗

The ICEBERG Test Stand for DUNE Cold Electronics Development

ICEBERG is a liquid argon time projection chamber at Fermilab for the purpose of testing detector components and software for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The detector features a 1.15m x 1m anode plane following the specifications of the DUNE horizontal drift far detector and a newly installed X-ARAPUCA photodetector. The status of ICEBERG is reported along with analysis of noise, pulser, and cosmic ray data from the ninth run beginning May 2024 with the goal of advising the DUNE collaboration on the optimal wire readout electronics configuration. In addition, development of an absolute energy scale calibration method is currently underway using known sources such as cosmic ray muon Michel electrons at the ~10 MeV scale and $^{39}$Ar decay electrons at the ~100keV scale. Research into AI-based identification of such events at the data acquisition level is introduced.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗

TEAMER: FOSWEC Mooring Modeling and Analysis, Post Access Report and Data

Floating oscillating surge wave energy converters (FOSWECs) offer several advantages over bottom-hinged oscillating surge wave energy converters, including large wave potential at deep-water sites with fewer permitting and environmental concerns outside territorial waters. As a team, Stevens Institute of Technology, Virginia Tech and Resolute Marine Energy are designing a 100 kW FOSWEC with DOE support (2020-2021) for the PacWave test site "PacWave". The proposed FOSWEC consists of a floating platform, two pivoting flaps, and an innovative power-take-off (PTO). The distance between the two flaps is around half the typical wavelength, resulting in out-of-phase motion and a reduction in motion of the frame and mooring loads. The overall goal of the project is to design, build, deploy and analyze a 1:2 scale (100-kW annual averaged electrical power output) device with reduced levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and peak-to-average power ratio, through the co-design and control of the PTO, WEC, and floating platform. This submission includes a Post Access Report and data for the project of Mooring Modeling and Analysis for Floating Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter that Powers Marine Aquaculture of RFTS2 (request for technical support). The data are used to generate all figures in the Post Access Report. Project was a collaboration between Virginia Tech and the National Renewable Energy Lab, with funding from TEAMER.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Argon Milling of Bulk and Post-FIB Specimens for Multi-Length Scale Analyses by EBSD, TEM, and APT under Controlled Environments

Correlative investigations involve structural characterization by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) combined with compositional analysis by atom probe tomography (APT) using the same specimen. A critical component of successful correlative analyses is specimen preparation; probing individual atoms requires a surface and subsurface with minimal defects, beginning with the bulk material through to the prepared specimen for TEM or APT analysis. Our previous work showed that low-energy concentrated ion beam Ar ion milling improves TEM [1] and APT [2,3] specimen quality by removing surface oxides and Ga damage caused by focused ion beam (FIB) preparation. Further enhancement in specimen quality of APT specimens is achieved in the established workflow under controlled environments, as shown in [4]. In this work, we present specimen preparation using Ar ion milling techniques not only for the APT specimen, but also the bulk sample for subsequent multi-length scale analyses by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), TEM, and APT under controlled environments. The removal of surface damage and oxidation, which is crucial for probing atomic layer specimens by broad and concentrated Ar ion beam milling techniques under controlled environments, is highlighted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of SCALE Criticality and Sensitivity Calculations for Reflected HEU Cylinders [Abstract]

The SCALE code package offers several nuclear data libraries to support Monte Carlo (MC) transport, as well as MC-based derivation of $\kappa$ eff sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) data. The CSAS sequence using the KENO MC code can utilize continuous-energy (CE) cross sections, or pre-generated multigroup (MG) cross section libraries. The use of MG libraries introduces bias into calculations in exchange for faster transport solutions. The TSUNAMI-3D sequence also utilizes KENO MC calculations. TSUNAMI-3D has two CE calculational methods: the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method, and the Contribution-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method. Previous work has shown poor agreement between CLUTCH and confirmatory direct perturbation calculations in specific applications, e.g., fissionable and polyethylene reflectors

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Modeling of the Synfuel Production Process: Process models of Fischer-Tropsch production with electricity and hydrogen provided by various scales of nuclear plants

Synthetic fuels (synfuels), also known as electro-fuels (E-fuels), are hydrocarbon fuels produced from waste CO2 streams and water electrolysis, with electricity as the primary source of energy. To achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, electricity sources must release zero carbon or near-zero carbon, as is the case with solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power. Nuclear power is one of the largest and steadiest domestic sources of clean energy in the United States. Moreover, nuclear power has the potential to produce hydrogen economically for less than $2/kg, reaching the DOE near-term target price. Thus, using nuclear power to produce synfuels has the unique potential to significantly reduce the GHG emissions of hydrocarbon fuels production and end-use applications. Fisher-Tropsch or FT fuel (a mixture of naphtha, jet fuel, and diesel) is of great interest because it is a drop-in fuel that can be blended with conventional petroleum counterparts and is compatible with existing infrastructure. By using the ASPEN Plus model, this report develops FT fuel production models on three scales, corresponding to nuclear plants with capacities of 1000 MWe, 437 Mwe, and 100 MWe, respectively. The FT model case with energy from a 437-MWe nuclear plant is used as a baseline case. This report summarizes the baseline ASPEN Plus model results with a detailed mass and energy analysis. Our modeled facility produces 507 MT/day (185,000 gal/day) of FT fuel by converting 255 MT/day of hydrogen and 1,580 MT/day of CO2. The FT fuel production energy efficiency from hydrogen and electricity energy inputs is 70% (lowerheating-value or LHV-based). Including the high-temperature electrolyzer in the system boundary, the FT fuel production LHV efficiency from electricity and thermal energy inputs is 51%, considering 39.8 kWh/kg of electricity and 6.86 kWh/kg of thermal energy use from a nuclear plant for hydrogen production. The FT production efficiency can potentially be increased by further integrating the heat exchange between nuclear plant and FT process, and this study is underway. The carbon conversion ratio in the baseline case is 99%, with process CO2 capture and recirculation and oxy-combustion using the oxygen by-product from water electrolysis. The hydrogen consumption is 1.38 kg/gal-FT fuel and the CO2 consumption is 8.56 kg/gal-FT fuel in the baseline case. With different FT production scales determined by the nuclear plant capacity, the FT model was scaled using the same operating parameters, which led to the same conversion efficiency regardless of scale. However, the different FT plant scales will impact the economics of FT fuel production; this impact will be examined in the next phase of this study.

Zang, Guiyan↗